July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is depressing.

Looks like a pretty run of the mill hot spell at this point. At least for the western lowlands.

[TacomaWaWx]

Now that the clouds have mostly burned off you can see the aloft smoke more clearly. I can definitely see the milky white haze in the sky. 

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like a pretty run of the mill warm spell at this point.

We've seen the worst of it and lived to tell the tale.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Now that the clouds have mostly burned off you can see the aloft smoke more clearly. I can definitely see the milky white haze in the sky. 

Good news is that the Canadian smoke model pushes the smoke east of western WA tonight and it keeps it to the east for the weekend.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=tc&utc=12

[Timmy Supercell]

8 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

We've seen the worst of it and lived to tell the tale.

I'd also like to believe that late June heatwave was a statistical fluke over the next few decades. Considering an old all time being smashed by 9, I don't know how many cities in the United States have done that.

[Timmy Supercell]

24 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

That's the airport. It's always cooler. The Valley is different. Downtown and the Valley are 1800-2000 feet. The airport is around 2400 feet. The Northside and South Hill are around the same elevation as the airport. In general the Valley is around 2-4 degrees warmer than KGEG.

Even understanding if GEG is a cool and/or drier spot (like here), June 2021 was probably still an impressive month up there as a whole and for the individual wave.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news is that the Canadian smoke model pushes the smoke east of western WA tonight and it keeps it to the east for the weekend.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=tc&utc=12

HRRR takes longer (until Sunday evening) to push it away but says it won’t get down to the surface here.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

HRRR takes longer (until Sunday evening) to push it away but says it won’t get down to the surface here.

HRRR actually shows its well east of us by early Sunday morning.   Interestingly it shows it being much worse in Chicago at that time compared to here.  

 

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I'd also like to believe that late June heatwave was a statistical fluke over the next few decades. Considering an old all time being smashed by 9, I don't know how many cities in the United States have done that.

2015 was crazy. This one reminds me of a more extreme June 2015.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like a pretty run of the mill hot spell at this point. At least for the western lowlands.

Shortly after a major one. The more hot spells we have, the worse it gets...

[snow drift]

8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Even understanding if GEG is a cool and/or drier spot (like here), June 2021 was probably still an impressive month up there as a whole and for the individual wave.

It's a repeat of 2015.

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news is that the Canadian smoke model pushes the smoke east of western WA tonight and it keeps it to the east for the weekend.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=tc&utc=12

Yeah no surface smoke for now thankfully. I’m worried by later this month and august we might be in a bad spot. 

[snow drift]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah no surface smoke for now thankfully. I’m worried by later this month and august we might be in a bad spot. 

Smoke is like that uncle. He is only suppose to stay a day or two, but inevitably he ends up staying over a month.

[Omegaraptor]

Just drove from home to Detroit, now we traded off and my dad is at the wheel. The stretch between Gates and Detroit was just sad to look at. Made sure to buy some snacks in Detroit - not much, but it’s a couple more bucks in the local economy.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

HRRR actually shows its well east of us by early Sunday morning.   Interestingly it shows it being much worse in Chicago at that time compared to here.  

 

FWIW, this morning’s run showed smoke aloft until 00:00 UTC Sunday. Nice that it's gonna get outta here sooner.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

FWIW, this morning’s run showed smoke aloft until 00:00 UTC Sunday. Nice that it's gonna get outta here sooner.

00:00 UTC Sunday is actually Saturday at 5 p.m. PDT.

[Cloud]

Making my annual trip down to Seaside/Cannon Beach this weekend! Was not able to do it last year due to restrictions but looking forward it this year. Weather looks perfect and trying to get it in early while it’s still nice because the potential for smoke and ugliness is there later. 

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00:00 UTC Sunday is actually Saturday at 5 p.m. PDT.

People seems to get Z time confused quite often, especially when it shows anywhere between 00z to 06z. I've seen this quite often when people try to analyze maps on social media and gets the time conversion wrong. This is the best chart I can find that's super useful. Remember that anytime between 00z and 06z we should be behind a day at PDT. 

https://datetime360.com/z-pdt-time/

[Blizzard777]

OT

I’m assuming PDX dispatched some F15S our way.  Sounded quite ominous out there a bit ago (between 3-3:15)  with roaring jet engines.  Friend down here got this shot so I’m assuming small plane violated military airspace.  Will see how this unfolds.  
 

Meanwhile sunny and 78*
 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

OT

I’m assuming PDX dispatched some F15S our way.  Sounded quite ominous out there a bit ago (between 3-3:15)  with roaring jet engines.  Friend down here got this shot so I’m assuming small plane violated military airspace.  Will see how this unfolds.  
 

Meanwhile sunny and 78*
 

Well, look like whoever is in that small plane got a story to tell for life. "Yup! I got the military to scramble a fighter jet to intercept me!" 

[Deweydog]

Ironically, the last few days have had a 2010 feel to them, a summer that had some stout warm season inversions during fairly strong subsidence.  Curious if it could be a theme as most of the models keep up a strong interior thermal gradient.

Conversely, I don’t think we had widespread 115 degree weather that summer…

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Well, look like whoever is in that small plane got a story to tell for life. "Yup! I got the military to scramble a fighter jet to intercept me!" 

Sounded pretty ominous down here!!! I was ready to take shelter….lol

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Ironically, the last few days have had a 2010 feel to them, a summer that had some stout warm season inversions during fairly strong subsidence.  Curious if it could be a theme as most of the models keep up a strong interior thermal gradient.

Conversely, I don’t think we had widespread 115 degree weather that summer…

I was thinking the same thing.    Of course the water off the PNW coast was much colder in 2010 which might have aided the inversion that year on the west side.   Not sure... but we have debated this in the past many times.

The ECMWF has done very well with the low cloud coverage from Wednesday through today and even showed the remnant clouds against the Cascades that we have right now up here.   It does not show the marine layer sticking around inland during the days after today except for maybe Wednesday.   And it does not show any low clouds at all from Thursday afternoon through the end of the run... not even along the coast.     We will see... we know that the models struggle with inversions but the ECMWF has been impressive with this round.  

[Blizzard777]

17 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

OT

I’m assuming PDX dispatched some F15S our way.  Sounded quite ominous out there a bit ago (between 3-3:15)  with roaring jet engines.  Friend down here got this shot so I’m assuming small plane violated military airspace.  Will see how this unfolds.  
 

Meanwhile sunny and 78*
 

Standing down….another shot reveals a vintage plane so must be practicing for the airshow.  Coming out of my shelter now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00:00 UTC Sunday is actually Saturday at 5 p.m. PDT.

Well, I think I should have typed 00:00 Monday then, because it was Sunday night after I did the conversion.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Standing down….another shot reveals a vintage plane so must be practicing for the airshow.  Coming out of my shelter now.

Well D**n, I was hoping for something more exciting than that. But this will suffice to replace seafair.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

59 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just drove from home to Detroit, now we traded off and my dad is at the wheel. The stretch between Gates and Detroit was just sad to look at. Made sure to buy some snacks in Detroit - not much, but it’s a couple more bucks in the local economy.

We drove through there last week, I always thought that canyon was so beautiful. I guess it is still beautiful in its own, but very different way. It will be interesting to watch the forest come back. Already seeing alder shoots coming up. My wife made me turn around and go back to Mtn. High Grocery in Detroit so we could stimulate the local economy. Sad to see The Cedars gone too, my brother and I ate many a meal there after hiking up to Jefferson Park or Marion Lake. At least Marion Lake hasn't burned yet. The B&B fire got into the Marion Lake basin and touched part of the lake in 2003, and the Lionshead Fire stayed just north. Of course with the stupid permit system they've instituted I will only be heading up to Marion Lake in the off season now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Speaking of Detroit. I was looking at Detroit Dam's February stats. Very interesting. The station there is only about 1300', so a bit lower than us, a bit further south, but about 20 miles east. They must have had good outflow from the Santiam Canyon because they had 20" of snow with that event while we only had freezing rain up here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Speaking of Detroit. I was looking at Detroit Dam's February stats. Very interesting. The station there is only about 1300', so a bit lower than us, a bit further south, but about 20 miles east. They must have had good outflow from the Santiam Canyon because they had 20" of snow with that event while we only had freezing rain up here. 

Wasn't Detroit one of the snowiest communities on the west side?

[T-Town]

26 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Standing down….another shot reveals a vintage plane so must be practicing for the airshow.  Coming out of my shelter now.

They went screaming over the house a couple hours ago. Sounded like they were a hundred feet overhead. Pretty cool. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wasn't Detroit one of the snowiest communities on the west side?

Definitely, it is one of the higher elevation towns on the west side. They also get significantly more snow than we do given they are further east and in that very deep canyon. Cold air definitely gets trapped in there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wasn't Detroit one of the snowiest communities on the west side?

Looking at their weather station it was in operation from 1948-72, they averaged 82" of snow a year during that period. Though that period would be like the snowiest 24 year sample you could find. They probably average around 50-60" a year. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at their weather station it was in operation from 1948-72, they averaged 82" of snow a year during that period. Though that period would be like the snowiest 24 year sample you could find. They probably average around 50-60" a year. 

Sounds similar to here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sounds similar to here.

Yeah I think so, we have a low ridge behind us, but we are more on the slopes than in any kind of valley or canyon. The town of Detroit is about 8-10 miles east of Detroit Dam at about 1500', and looking at the old stats from that station... WOW. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah I think so, we have a low ridge behind us, but we are more on the slopes than in any kind of valley or canyon. The town of Detroit is about 8-10 miles east of Detroit Dam at about 1500', and looking at the old stats from that station... WOW. 

They had 122" of snow in January 1950 and 120" in January 1969. 

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Even understanding if GEG is a cool and/or drier spot (like here), June 2021 was probably still an impressive month up there as a whole and for the individual wave.

100s in June are not very common. Only five had ever been recorded before the June 2021 heatwave. Snow in October isn't common either. Spokane is streaky.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

100s in June are not very common. Only five had ever been recorded before the June 2021 heatwave. Snow in October isn't common either. Spokane is streaky.

I was really looking forward to moving to Spokane for a couple years. I was due to get assigned there for work in fall 2020, but because of COVID those plans have changed and now they are keeping me in the Willamette Valley, which I guess is fine. I was going to keep my house here anyway.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And there’s number 13

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was really looking forward to moving to Spokane for a couple years. I was due to get assigned there for work in fall 2020, but because of COVID those plans have changed and now they are keeping me in the Willamette Valley, which I guess is fine. I was going to keep my house here anyway.

Spokane is fine. The weather is all over the place. The seasons are rather distinct.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Snowdrift said:

Spokane is fine. The weather is all over the place. The seasons are rather distinct.

I was looking forward to that. I spent a few days in town in May 2011 and November 2019 and thought it was a nice area.