July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[Blizzard777]

I’m on the sunny side this morning…barely though 

60* 

[Blizzard777]

Ironic 

[TacomaWaWx]

25 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Ironic 

Atleast New Mexico and Arizona get rain lol

[BLI snowman]

Spotty drizzle here this morning, surprisingly thick marine layer again. Hope this becomes a recurring pattern with the heat centered mainly to our east the next two weeks.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Spotty drizzle here this morning, surprisingly thick marine layer again. Hope this becomes a recurring pattern with the heat centered mainly to our east the next two weeks.

The last few days turned out pretty nice with the marine layer. Awesome after such a heatwave. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Spotty drizzle here this morning, surprisingly thick marine layer again. Hope this becomes a recurring pattern with the heat centered mainly to our east the next two weeks.

I think that is the mostly likely outcome... persistent onshore flow keeping things in check.   Of course we really could use some rain too.   But avoiding extreme heat and giving the trees some marine moisture each night is better than nothing.  

[TT-SEA]

A few low clouds here but they seem to be evaporating.    Mostly sunny now and 65.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Atleast New Mexico and Arizona get rain lol

They really need it.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think that is the mostly likely outcome... persistent onshore flow keeping things in check.   Of course we really could use some rain too.   But avoiding extreme heat and giving the trees some marine moisture each night is better than nothing.  

Definitely going to be some more 90s in our near future, but the surface details look to gradually become more favorable for us moving forward. 

Would be weird if troughing did evolve in late July. That's a progression we have not seen in a long time. 2001 was probably the last consistently troughy late July that I can remember.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully this is not going to play out like 2017.    It stopped raining on June 18th here that year and the next meaningful rainfall was not until September 18th.  

That was also a neutral summer that was heading toward a weak Nina that coming fall and winter.     

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully this is not going to play out like 2017.    It stopped raining on June 18th here that year and the next meaningful rainfall was not until September 18th.  

That was also a neutral summer that was heading toward a weak Nina that coming fall and winter.     

March to May this year was about as opposite from 2017 as it gets, when we had heaps of rain. 

[TT-SEA]

It will be interesting to see how today plays out in terms of temperatures now that we are past the big marine push and strong inversion following the big heat wave.     The low cloud pattern today is pretty much what the ECMWF shows going forward... with low clouds forming each night and then burning off in the morning as opposed to the clouds staying around during the afternoon like the last 3 days.  

My guess is that even though it will be generally sunny... the GFS still does not recognize the constant marine influence and will likely be over-estimating high temps for the foreseeable future.  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

March to May this year was about as opposite from 2017 as it gets, when we had heaps of rain. 

Very true. 

But it would be just our luck to have a record dry spring and then start following 2017 for the driest 3 months of that year.   

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Subsurface warm ENSO anomalies have been on an eroding trend since early May, more or less, particularly in the eastern TPAC.

Couple that with the massive trade wind burst about to commence and you have little chance of warm ENSO this winter.  As I've mentioned before the recent norm for ENSO has been to have SST anoms peak in the summer and then cool in the fall and winter.

 

[TT-SEA]

Now that the low clouds and fog have evaporated here... I can see that the smoke aloft from yesterday has cleared.    The sky is much more blue this morning.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely going to be some more 90s in our near future, but the surface details look to gradually become more favorable for us moving forward. 

Would be weird if troughing did evolve in late July. That's a progression we have not seen in a long time. 2001 was probably the last consistently troughy late July that I can remember.

I've been thinking the same thing about the possible troughing for the second half of July.  It would be very rare by recent standards.  The heights are trying to skyrocket over the NE Pacific, but that cutoff low kind of messes up the downstream stuff for us in the short term.  We'll just have to see if things finally align for us.  Even with a though though it's very difficult to get meaningful rain in July.

[TT-SEA]

[Timmy Supercell]

I could have my first thunderstorms to ever land on 4th of July tomorrow AM. How exciting they'll be? No clue, so chances are I may not pull the video camera out.

Still, would be nice to have action on 7/4.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Lovely. Even in this severe drought, I can count on TT's Japanese Garden photos

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Lovely. Even in this severe drought, I can count on TT's Japanese Garden photos

You can actually see yellowish leaves on our Japanese Maple in the foreground.    It did not like the heat.   And we watered everything thoroughly but still see the effects.

I am guessing there is going to be stunted fall color this year.   The trees will probably just give up quickly.

[snow_wizard]

I drove through Hobart yesterday and was pretty shocked to see the tree damage there.  Very serious damage to the Sitka Spruce, alder and cedar, and significant damage to the Douglas Fir.  There was also an area a couple miles east of North Bend.  Undoubtedly related to the east winds on the hottest day.  We had east winds for half of that day and there is some damage mostly to the most exposed Douglas Fir.  I have no doubt if the extreme heat had lasted one more day it would have been much more serious.

[Timmy Supercell]

2017 may have been a warm summer but at least it started right with colorful growth and all that. 

Downtown doesn't quite look like that now.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I drove through Hobart yesterday and was pretty shocked to see the tree damage there.  Very serious damage to the Sitka Spruce, alder and cedar, and significant damage to the Douglas Fir.  There was also an area a couple miles east of North Bend.  Undoubtedly related to the east winds on the hottest day.  We had east winds for half of that day and there is some damage mostly to the most exposed Douglas Fir.  I have no doubt if the extreme heat had lasted one more day it would have been much more serious.

I saw people on facebook reporting a strong east wind on the east side of North Bend around exit 34 on Monday during the hottest period.   Luckily we did not get that strong wind here.   But I was thinking there was probably more damage east of North Bend.

[Timmy Supercell]

Going down memory lane with Fall 2016 as well. We need another couple months like that.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I saw people on facebook reporting a strong east wind on the east side of North Bend around exit 34 on Monday during the hottest period.   Luckily we did not get that strong wind here.   But I was thinking there was probably more damage east of North Bend.

That east wind is lethal when it gets that hot.  The exact opposite of the freezing effect it has during cold weather.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

The tree damage along Highway 18 between Covington and Hobart is truly jaw-dropping. When I drove through yesterday it looks like nothing was spared.

0.01” of rain yesterday, I’ll take it . 

I almost wonder if those spruce trees will make it.  I guess it could look worse than it is, but I'm not sure.

For me that heatwave clearly showed how we are Mother Nature's mercy more than we want to admit.  What if we had a week of that kind of weather?

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

The tree damage along Highway 18 between Covington and Hobart is truly jaw-dropping. When I drove through yesterday it looks like nothing was spared.

0.01” of rain yesterday, I’ll take it . 

That is really sad. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS keeps things reasonable through Saturday... but then the ridge amplifies to our north and it starts getting hot.    

[TT-SEA]

Up to 70 in North Bend now with an almost entirely clear sky... going to be warm out here today.   Probably back to being warmer than Seattle going forward.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS is worst case scenario starting next weekend.   It brings back offshore flow and ridiculous heat again.  I sure hope it's up to its usually tricks of over-amplifying in the mid and long range. 

How in the hell is it possible to see this in the models again?  

[Omegaraptor]

[TT-SEA]

If this happens again... there likely will be big fires on the west side.   The stage has been set now.     Hopefully the ECMWF and EPS stick with their 00Z solutions.  

[snow drift]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I drove through Hobart yesterday and was pretty shocked to see the tree damage there.  Very serious damage to the Sitka Spruce, alder and cedar, and significant damage to the Douglas Fir.  There was also an area a couple miles east of North Bend.  Undoubtedly related to the east winds on the hottest day.  We had east winds for half of that day and there is some damage mostly to the most exposed Douglas Fir.  I have no doubt if the extreme heat had lasted one more day it would have been much more serious.

That's sad. Most of our trees are drought and heat resistant. It's hard to kill a Ponderosa pine.

[Thunder98]

[Farmboy]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS is worst case scenario starting next weekend.   It brings back offshore flow and ridiculous heat again.  I sure hope it's up to its usually tricks of over-amplifying in the mid and long range. 

How in the hell is it possible to see this in the models again?  

Brutal.  Yeah I think you guys don't need anymore of that...

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS is worst case scenario starting next weekend.   It brings back offshore flow and ridiculous heat again.  I sure hope it's up to its usually tricks of over-amplifying in the mid and long range. 

How in the hell is it possible to see this in the models again?  

Don't want that outcome. Euro will be different.

[GobBluth]

9 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Don't want that outcome. Euro will be different.

Canadian much cooler.

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Canadian much cooler.

We don't need another 110+ at PDX.

[snow_wizard]

We're getting a good signal for a decent mid month trough...even the EPS.  We'll see if we can really pull it off this time.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We're getting a good signal for a decent mid month trough...even the EPS.  We'll see if we can really pull it off this time.

Are you trying to jinx the GFS into verifying?