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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Beautiful late afternoon on the middle fork of the Snoqualmie River... water is chilly but felt refreshing on this warm day.   

20210703_155227.jpg

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For those who are worried about the so called blob....this year is not the same situation that has caused us problems in the past.  The center of the positive SST anoms are much further offshore and this is actually a -PDO signature.  The latest PDO update had June at -1.88.

Sadly the UW no longer updates the monthly PDO values, but these should be in the ballpark and it is an official NOAA product.  I remember reading a brief overview of how the UW calculated their version of the PDO values and I may attempt to recreate it based on the reanalysis data.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | Teleconnections | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For those who are worried about the so called blob....this year is not the same situation that has caused us problems in the past.  The center of the positive SST anoms are much further offshore and this is actually a -PDO signature.  The latest PDO update had June at -1.88.

Sadly the UW no longer updates the monthly PDO values, but these should be in the ballpark and it is an official NOAA product.  I remember reading a brief overview of how the UW calculated their version of the PDO values and I may attempt to recreate it based on the reanalysis data.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | Teleconnections | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)

Apparently don't need to the blob to have a warm summer.   Because we are looking at a warm summer.   June was way above normal.  And by the middle of the month... July will probably have a large enough warm departure to guarantee a warm month.   And that only leaves August.   And I if had to bet now... August will not be colder than normal.

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Hot gfs run it appears. Lots of 90s and willamette valley even gets into the low 100s. This summer is really going to blow past 2015. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

The PNW (and New England) are the places to be tomorrow.

77°F degrees is as close to 4th of July perfection as is physically possible.

0310557B-A2B1-4837-8D9A-E8EE82253AB2.png

Oregon is part of the Pacific Northwest. It'll be in the 90s here.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Nice shots!  I was down there early for the Orca show and then hung out for the airshow!  Just a few folks down there…..thing looked back to normal 

EC12197C-DE62-4F1B-9C91-29E2BCC5FF43.png

46F895D9-51BE-4066-A67A-708E2295F218.png

CA39FC23-0ACB-4C70-BABE-580DD9E40320.jpeg

Awesome pics!   

That boat (actually a small yacht) in the last pic is packed with people!   

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hot gfs run it appears. Lots of 90s and willamette valley even gets into the low 100s. This summer is really going to blow past 2015. 

Actually does not end up nearly as bad as the 12Z run.     

This appears to be warmest day on this run... which is actually much cooler than the 12Z run.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6220800.png

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually does not end up nearly as bad as the 12Z run.     

This appears to be warmest day on this run... which is actually much cooler than the 12Z run.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6220800.png

I don’t think it’ll actually be that hot but widespread 90s sounds pretty yuck. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Apparently don't need to the blob to have a warm summer.   Because we are looking at a warm summer.   June was way above normal.  And by the middle of the month... July will probably have a large enough warm departure to guarantee a warm month.   And that only leaves August.   And I if had to bet now... August will not be colder than normal.

The interesting part about this is that a hot June doesn't necessarily guarantee a warmer than normal July and August as well. There was a post made the other day about a last 10 Junes having warmer  than normal temps and it was a 50/50 split for "above average" and "below average" July and August -- this was posted by the NWS Seattle.

Base on what we're seeing now, at least thru first half of the month, July is going to be warm... let's hope somehow it evens out and have a below normal August. Maybe by then, Phil's trough will finally arrive. 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually does not end up nearly as bad as the 12Z run.     

This appears to be warmest day on this run... which is actually much cooler than the 12Z run.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6220800.png

If we didn't go thru the last heatwave or even some of the previous runs, I don't think you'd be using the word "cooler" for this map. I don't see how this can be equate  as "cool" Christ, it's still hot though. 

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7 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

If we didn't go thru the last heatwave or even some of the previous runs, I don't think you'd be using the word "cooler" for this map. I don't see how this can be equate  as "cool" Christ, it's still hot though. 

Well the 12Z run showed 110-115 for most of us again... so yeah mid 90s would be a cake walk comparatively.

But I like how it backed down so I doubt it gets even as warm as the 00Z run.

And the 00Z run shows an actual trough by 300 hours! 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6436800.png

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30 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hot gfs run it appears. Lots of 90s and willamette valley even gets into the low 100s. This summer is really going to blow past 2015. 

It still shows the trough afterward.  We're getting a lot of consistency on that now.  Still too early to make general statements about the entire summer.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well the 12Z run showed 110-115 for most of us again... so yeah mid 90s would be a cake walk comparatively.

But I like how it backed down so I doubt it gets even as warm as the 00Z run.

And the 00Z run shows an actual trough by 300 hours! 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6436800.png

Let's hope this downward trend continues and not the GFS floundering!

That's actually a nice looking Phil Trough. 

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I still have a feeling the eastern 2/3 of the country is going to roast once the pattern flip comes.  We may well go through one more somewhat significant heatwave before the change though.  We'll see if the big trade wind burst coming up over the equatorial Pacific really kicks things in the arse finally.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Are people still basing anything on the absurd GFS surface output?  So far my comparison of that to reality shows it 8F too high on average for SEA highs.  Apply a 6 to 10 degree correction and it might be useful.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are people still basing anything on the absurd GFS surface output?  So far my comparison of that to reality shows it 8F too high on average for SEA highs.  Apply a 6 to 10 degree correction and it might be useful.

Yeah... we laughed when it showed 110-115 degrees.   And then it happened.

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It still shows the trough afterward.  We're getting a lot of consistency on that now.  Still too early to make general statements about the entire summer.

The first half of the summer alone is pretty crazy…add in another heatwave potentially coming shown on the gfs (euros to pretty warm too we will see what the 0z shows) and by mid July this is pretty much a guaranteed hot summer unless it’s literally average-below average the entire second half of July through august…which we know won’t happen. Highly likely there’s more heatwaves between mid July and mid September. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are people still basing anything on the absurd GFS surface output?  So far my comparison of that to reality shows it 8F too high on average for SEA highs.  Apply a 6 to 10 degree correction and it might be useful.

So you're not gonna adamantly tout the GFS surface output when it comes wintertime then right? 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are people still basing anything on the absurd GFS surface output?  So far my comparison of that to reality shows it 8F too high on average for SEA highs.  Apply a 6 to 10 degree correction and it might be useful.

It’s probably not going to be that hot obviously but it’s looking pretty warm. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

So you're not gonna adamantly tout the GFS surface output when it comes wintertime then right? 

😃

Great point... the GFS is just as stupid on the cold side.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😃

Great point... the GFS is just as stupid on the cold side.    

The v16 (now the current GFS) was about as stupid as it could this past winter with some of the surface outputs in Jan-Feb.  Just saying we gotta look at both sides of the coin here if we're going to criticize the model. 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😃

Great point... the GFS is just as stupid on the cold side.    

Except the hot side usually verifies. Not the case for the cold stuff, at least here.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Except the hot side usually verifies. Not the case for the cold stuff, at least here.

Yup... kinda sucks but it's reality. Maybe one day we'll have some stupid cold show and it actually end up verifying. One extreme deserves another.

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There is a surprisingly less amount of people NOT lighting fireworks this year in my neighborhood. There’s literally none! Maybe it’s because they sent out a letter prohibiting and have cops around.

Will be out of town tomorrow but I hope it continues tomorrow night. We need it. 

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51 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

There is a surprisingly less amount of people NOT lighting fireworks this year in my neighborhood. There’s literally none! Maybe it’s because they sent out a letter prohibiting and have cops around.

Will be out of town tomorrow but I hope it continues tomorrow night. We need it. 

This is nothing new, fireworks have been banned in the city of Seattle since roughly the early 90's, the problem lies within the ability to effectively enforce this ban which I "believe" falls under Code 107-SE. 

That said it would appear that perhaps, (perhaps) many folks this year especially on the westside are cognizant of just how detrimental an unregulated consumer explosive can be and the subsequent "damage" inflicted upon a neighborhood or even an entire community.

Neverminded the fact that one "errant" firework could lead to a huge fire that negatively impacts not only your "idiot" neighbor and his Murica' entitlement but the irreversible damage caused by such egregious behavior. 

In any event, here's hoping no one loses their home, neighboring property or even a loss of life. 

Celebrate safely and responsibly folks. 

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Nice little surprise on the ECMWF tonight.  Cool far sooner than other runs have shown.  FWIW the GFS ensemble control was similar.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, CloudBFIWx said:

So you're not gonna adamantly tout the GFS surface output when it comes wintertime then right? 

Since the "upgrade" it's terrible.  I think everyone knew there was no chance Saturday would hit 90 in SEA.  I think it's decent on the upper air stuff, but it's clueless on surface temps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The first half of the summer alone is pretty crazy…add in another heatwave potentially coming shown on the gfs (euros to pretty warm too we will see what the 0z shows) and by mid July this is pretty much a guaranteed hot summer unless it’s literally average-below average the entire second half of July through august…which we know won’t happen. Highly likely there’s more heatwaves between mid July and mid September. 

I don't think we know anything for sure right now.  A major pattern change is looking more likely now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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25 minutes ago, JBolin said:

This is nothing new, fireworks have been banned in the city of Seattle since roughly the early 90's, the problem lies within the ability to effectively enforce this ban which I "believe" falls under Code 107-SE. 

That said it would appear that perhaps, (perhaps) many folks this year especially on the westside are cognizant of just how detrimental an unregulated consumer explosive can be and the subsequent "damage" inflicted upon a neighborhood or even an entire community.

Neverminded the fact that one "errant" firework could lead to a huge fire that negatively impacts not only your "idiot" neighbor and his Murica' entitlement but the irreversible damage caused by such egregious behavior. 

In any event, here's hoping no one loses their home, neighboring property or even a loss of life. 

Celebrate safely and responsibly folks. 

About 11-12 years ago there was a stray firework that flew into someone's home because their windows were opened and caused a massive fire to one side of the house. It was unfortunate and they couldn't find out who lit the firework but safe to say the people that lived in that house are long gone from this neighborhood. 

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It appears the key to the upcoming pattern is a major reversal of the WPO from what we've been seeing.  The EPS shows it tanking pretty good in less than a week.  A major reshuffling of the deck.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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31 minutes ago, JBolin said:

This is nothing new, fireworks have been banned in the city of Seattle since roughly the early 90's, the problem lies within the ability to effectively enforce this ban which I "believe" falls under Code 107-SE. 

That said it would appear that perhaps, (perhaps) many folks this year especially on the westside are cognizant of just how detrimental an unregulated consumer explosive can be and the subsequent "damage" inflicted upon a neighborhood or even an entire community.

Neverminded the fact that one "errant" firework could lead to a huge fire that negatively impacts not only your "idiot" neighbor and his Murica' entitlement but the irreversible damage caused by such egregious behavior. 

In any event, here's hoping no one loses their home, neighboring property or even a loss of life. 

Celebrate safely and responsibly folks. 

I'm not a fan of fireworks being banned.  Just more freedom being taken away from us.  No doubt some common sense would go a long way this year with how dry it is though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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If we do go into a cool pattern for the second half of the month that will be a very big deal given that's been a nearly impossible time to get a trough this century.  Right now the chances look pretty good.  The GEM has a deep trough by day 10 also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not a fan of fireworks being banned.  Just more freedom being taken away from us.  No doubt some common sense would go a long way this year with how dry it is though.

To each their own Jim and I don't hate fireworks myself but there has to be some semblance of "enforcement". Until that happens we will continue to see the quintessential brush/home/forest fire/s and those negatively impacted by such poor "decision" making when engaging in "celebrating" the Fourth of July. 

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Wow... fell asleep early but just saw the ECMWF and EPS just took away inkling of a second heat wave.   Big change.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... fell asleep early but just saw the ECMWF and EPS just took away inkling of a second heat wave.   Big change.

Yet another example (if any were needed) of why one should never take clown range seriously.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yet another example (if any were needed) of why one should never take clown range seriously.

After looking over the models this morning... I think mid July will likely be troughy now.   All of the models are now on board and trending in that direction.    That is a significant change.

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't think we know anything for sure right now.  A major pattern change is looking more likely now.

That’s nice to see and hopefully it verifies but Yeah unless we get troughing now through September though it’ll still be an above normal summer. We’re already well ahead of schedule in terms of warm days across the region. Pretty much no way we don’t see more heat. Hasn’t been a legit cool summer in a decade…even 2019 was still warmer than normal. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Low of 57 and cloudy happy 4th. Plz be responsible with the fireworks had plenty of people lighting them off here last night. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 57 and cloudy happy 4th. Plz be responsible with the fireworks had plenty of people lighting them off here last night. 

Yeah... it was annoying last night here with constant fireworks after it got dark. 

In addition to the fire hazard... we will also have lots of firework haze and pollution tomorrow morning.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sunny start to the day here... does not appear to be any elevated smoke either.   Although you can see the smoke on the satellite just north of the border.   Looks like the low clouds have stopped their inland progression so it should be a pretty quick burn off for the cloudy areas other than along the coast.

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it was annoying last night here with constant fireworks after it got dark. 

In addition to the fire hazard... we will also have lots of firework haze and pollution tomorrow morning.  

I don’t mind hearing them on the 4th in any year…but I’d rather not hear them at all this year unless it’s the show down on commencement bay. It’s pretty unfortunate but we will be lucky if we get through today without any brush fires starting. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not a fan of fireworks being banned.  Just more freedom being taken away from us.  No doubt some common sense would go a long way this year with how dry it is though.

If common sense were widespread, there really wouldn’t be much need for a ban. Unfortunately, asking people to think of others will cause a certain crowd to go on about “muh freedom” and light fireworks near dry vegetation anyhow, just to show the world that nobody is the boss of them.

Just like with indoor smoking, it is the antics of those most opposed to the bans that, ironically enough, furnish the most convincing arguments in favor of banning.

Liberty requires responsibility.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not a fan of fireworks being banned.  Just more freedom being taken away from us.  No doubt some common sense would go a long way this year with how dry it is though.

The one good thing about living in a swamp climate…no fire risk in the summer. Shoot off as many fireworks as you please. Technically it’s still not legal to shoot them off within 100ft of a building (old law) but it’s not enforced at all.

Sometimes they’ll put a temporary moratorium on them during winter/New Years holiday if it’s really dry. But never during the summer.

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