July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We're getting a good signal for a decent mid month trough...even the EPS.  We'll see if we can really pull it off this time.

Dude.    Are you trying to guarantee the opposite again? 

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, sand dune said:

That's sad. Most of our trees are drought and heat resistant. It's hard to kill a Ponderosa pine.

I think the Sitka spruce is more suited for the coast, but we do have some in this area.  I hope they make it.  Just the heat was one thing, but the added dry east wind tipped the balance in some places.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Are you trying to jinx the GFS into verifying?

The EPS actually has a decent trough signal at that time also.  It seems like all of the model busts (reality vs what has been shown for week 2)  have gone against us so far.  That can't last forever.

We have the strongest trade wind burst in quite some time about to commence in the tropics.  That should reshuffle the deck.  That's not to say we couldn't have one more shot of heat before it really flips.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS actually has a decent trough signal at that time also.  It seems like all if the model busts (reality vs what has been shown for week 2)  have gone against us so far.  That can't last forever.

We have the strongest trade wind burst in quite some time about to commence in the tropics.  That should reshuffle the deck.  That's not to say we couldn't have one more shot of heat before it really flips.

Right now... nature seems intent in doing the opposite of what you expect this summer. 

[TT-SEA]

Good news is that the 12Z GEFS just shows a typical warm pattern for the next 10 days.  That is the best we can hope for right now.

[Phil]

At least it’s not drizzling.

 

[Phil]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good to read some folkx saw marine clouds this morning. Severe clear here. 

[seattleweatherguy]

59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS is worst case scenario starting next weekend.   It brings back offshore flow and ridiculous heat again.  I sure hope it's up to its usually tricks of over-amplifying in the mid and long range. 

How in the hell is it possible to see this in the models again?  

You serious? Hopefully this does not verify

[TT-SEA]

Just now, seattleweatherguy said:

You serious? Hopefully this does not verify

Don't want to ever see another model run show that kind of heat.    I don't even want to know it's possible again. 

[TT-SEA]

After two oddly warm marine layer days... its already just about up to the high yesterday before 11 a.m.  

The sky sure is beautiful today though... all the haze is gone.  

[Timmy]

Driving to longview. Pretty thick smoke n of St. Helens (the town) haven’t seen it like this for 10 months

[snow drift]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't want to ever see another model run show that kind of heat.    I don't even want to know it's possible again. 

Let's keep Forks, Aberdeen, and Hoquiam below 100.☀

[TacomaWaWx]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

After two oddly warm marine layer days... its already just about up to the high yesterday before 11 a.m.  

The sky sure is beautiful today though... all the haze is gone.  

Yep smokes pretty much gone up to 67 here marine layer burned off quicker today. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS is worst case scenario starting next weekend.   It brings back offshore flow and ridiculous heat again.  I sure hope it's up to its usually tricks of over-amplifying in the mid and long range. 

How in the hell is it possible to see this in the models again?  

It’s pretty much impossible to happen but that’s what we said the first time. I wouldn’t be suprised to see a stretch of mid 90s here and low 100s in Oregon…but I can’t imagine we will see widespread +105-110 readings again this summer or for the next few summers. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, sand dune said:

Don't want that outcome. Euro will be different.

Let’s hope so. Tree and vegetation damage is already evident here…with no rain coming and potentially another heatwave it could be another big blow. Even a few low to mid 90s could be bad. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s pretty much impossible to happen but that’s what we said the first time. I wouldn’t be suprised to see a stretch of mid 90s here and low 100s in Oregon…but I can’t imagine we will see widespread +105-110 readings again this summer or for the next few summers. 

Or ever would be nice!

[HoodCanalBridge]

Going to be a long 2-3 months in the PNW!

[TT-SEA]

Thankfully the 12Z ECMWF does not show anything close to the heat that the GFS showed.    Same general pattern... but the ECMWF keeps onshore flow going which keeps temps mainly in the 80s to low 90s.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thankfully the 12Z ECMWF does not show anything close to the heat that the GFS showed.    Same general pattern... but the ECMWF keeps onshore flow going which keeps temps mainly in the 80s to low 90s.

The GFS was the first to show the ridiculousness for the last hellwave, if I'm not mistaken?

[snow_wizard]

I really like where the ECMWF is going at the end of the last two runs.  Looks like energy from the 4CH will bleed into the ridge over the Pacific.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

At least it’s not drizzling.

 

Undoubtedly solely caused by climate change.  I'm sure they failed to mention the epic cold winter they had.

[T-Town]

Marine clouds are gone and airshow id under way. 

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The GFS was the first to show the ridiculousness for the last hellwave, if I'm not mistaken?

I think so too... which has me a little nervous. 

[TT-SEA]

78 and sunny here... let's just keep it exactly like today.    

[Farmboy]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Undoubtedly solely caused by climate change.  I'm sure they failed to mention the epic cold winter they had.

Nope, doesn't fit the narrative.

[James Jones]

Luckily the Euro has been far more reasonable than the GFS the last day or two, I would much rather have that be the case than the other way around. Persistent warmth but no heatwave.

It's been nice to have some marine clouds the last few days, and it looks like Oregon and Washington are mostly smoke free at the moment. It will inevitably return over us at some point but it's nice to see it put off as long as possible.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z EPS is also really nice and does not show the ridge amplifying to our north in the 7-10 day period like the GFS.     Just typical warmth... no heat.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Fully prepared for all the models to develop a significant heatvave for sometime later this month. Should start to light everything up at that point and a lot of cities will fall.

[Cloud]

45 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The GFS was the first to show the ridiculousness for the last hellwave, if I'm not mistaken?

It did and people should not discount what it's seeing now either. The model may be very good at seeing LR stuff so I guess we'll see how it'll go a few more runs but it's terrifying thinking about another severe heatwave. 

[Cloud]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z EPS is also really nice and does not show the ridge amplifying to our north in the 7-10 day period like the GFS.     Just typical warmth... no heat.

Give it time. We mocked at what the GFS was showing last time. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS still shows a weak trough signal at the end of the run as well... around the middle of the month.    At least there is hope that there will be no prolonged heat.  

[TacomaWaWx]

55 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Marine clouds are gone and airshow id under way. 

Yeah I took a few videos earlier at work to was pretty cool to see again. 

[TacomaWaWx]

73 and sunny. Pretty crazy it was this warm at sunrise a few days ago. Has been so nice just getting some normal summer weather. 

[snow drift]

91 and abundant

[snow_wizard]

The 12z EPS actually shows slightly below normal 850s for the Western Lowlands by mid July.  Finally looks like it might be locking onto a cooler pattern.

[TacomaWaWx]

34 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Give it time. We mocked at what the GFS was showing last time. 

I highly doubt SEA hits 100 again this summer. A few low to mid 90s? Sure but you’ve gotta remember we’ve only had 4 +100 days here in the 21st century. The fact that we just had 3 in a row makes it even more improbable. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z EPS actually slightly below normal 850s for the Western Lowlands by mid July.  Finally looks like it might be locking onto a cooler pattern.

It can't lock into a cooler pattern for a timeframe that just came into view and is so far out.   We have seen lots of troughing at that range become ridging and/or warmer than normal weather as it got closer.    Give it another 5 days and then we will have a better idea.

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I highly doubt SEA hits 100 again this summer. A few low to mid 90s? Sure but you’ve gotta remember we’ve only had 4 +100 days here in the 21st century. The fact that we just had 3 in a row makes it even more improbable. 

Our climate is changing and we’re living it. Hate to see it but I wouldn’t be surprise if we see more 100s in the future, if not again this summer. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I’m embarrassed to say that I definitely suffer from weather anxiety these days. I miss the summers of my childhood. 

Seeing the 12Z GFS made me anxious... we can't withstand that again.