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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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6 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

And there it is folks. I’ve been waiting for this since the heatwave. Surprise? Shouldn’t be. I would avoid the waters If necessary, as tempting as they make look. 

https://komonews.com/news/local/10-beaches-closed-because-of-high-fecal-bacteria-levels-heat-wave-could-be-to-blame

Luckily... Lake Sammamish is all good on the map.    And most of Lake Washington as well.    

 

lakesamm.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

Shhhh! This comment may not fit so well with 'the narrative'!

I am sure the tree damage is much more extensive in other areas.   But up here... it looks like the burnt needles are just falling off and the trees will look normal again soon.   Likely because its been wet enough up here.   We are still right around normal rainfall for the year.    That helps the trees withstand the heat.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure the tree damage is much more extensive in other areas.   But up here... it looks like the burnt needles are just falling off and the trees will look normal again soon.   Likely because its been wet enough up here.   We are still right around normal rainfall for the year.    That helps the trees withstand the heat.  

There is not much tree damage here, either, which is not really a big surprise considering this area had some of the highest dew points and lowest temperature maxima during the recent extreme heat wave. But that is just my local area. Some of the photos Mr. Snowmizer shared from the Kitsap Peninsula look very concerning.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There is not much tree damage here, either, which is not really a big surprise considering this area had some of the highest dew points and lowest temperature maxima during the recent extreme heat wave. But that is just my local area. Some of the photos Mr. Snowmizer shared from the Kitsap Peninsula look very concerning.

Our trees look like some of the pics he posted... but I think the damage is mostly on the surface.   Like getting a sunburn and then peeling.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Clouds breaking up here. About two hours behind yesterday. 66 degrees.  
 

No real tree damage here that I can see. We definitely didn’t get as hot as some other areas though. 

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12Z ECMWF might get there at the end... but its WAY slower with the troughing for next week than its 00Z run.

Its probably too early to be assuming major troughing will actually happen.    At least in my opinion.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro 3 days ago for 7/9.

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_9.thumb.png.d45498e6309166fc028f166e17d4a190.png

 

Euro today for 7/9.

 

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_6.thumb.png.c2044d5b9d59ec95a70a6ded7e10e5b7.png

 

None of the days on this run, in fact, are even as hot as what yesterday's 12z showed 6 days out.

WOW. Sure has been a chilly summer and it looks to stay that way!

🥶

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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro 3 days ago for 7/9.

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_9.thumb.png.d45498e6309166fc028f166e17d4a190.png

 

Euro today for 7/9.

 

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_6.thumb.png.c2044d5b9d59ec95a70a6ded7e10e5b7.png

 

None of the days on this run, in fact, are even as hot as what yesterday's 12z showed 6 days out.

Glad we will likely avoid anything really hot.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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41 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Clouds breaking up here. About two hours behind yesterday. 66 degrees.  
 

No real tree damage here that I can see. We definitely didn’t get as hot as some other areas though. 

These ones here don’t look too good. They were healthy about a week ago. We got off pretty easy compared to other areas with the heat forsure. 

49EBDAF2-6E92-45B2-9613-6623EB7BF75A.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF might get there at the end... but its WAY slower with the troughing for next week than its 00Z run.

Its probably too early to be assuming major troughing will actually happen.    At least in my opinion.  

It’s pretty much a lock for a kold July. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 hour ago, Farmboy said:

Shhhh! This comment may not fit so well with 'the narrative'!

What narrative? There’s literal tree damage across the area worse in some spots than others…we don’t know what the long term effects will be yet. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

These ones here don’t look too good. They were healthy about a week ago. We got off pretty easy compared to other areas with the heat forsure. 

49EBDAF2-6E92-45B2-9613-6623EB7BF75A.jpeg

Yeah that doesn’t look good. 

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Doesn't have to be either 2015 (or HOTTER) or a cool summer, though. The reality will likely be much more in between for most places, no matter how many 90+ days Tiger racks up.

SEA is quickly falling well behind 2015 in the 85+ and 90+ days stats.

I’d be willing to bet that this will be like summer 2017 and 2018 as a best case scenario and 2015 or worse as a worse case scenario. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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14 minutes ago, James Jones said:

WOW. Sure has been a chilly summer and it looks to stay that way!

🥶

No one is saying that.

Plenty of people are pounding the unprecedentedly hot summer drum, though. As well as acting like the models always trend warmer.

A forum for the end of the world.

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows a nice pattern for keeping the heat at bay early next week... this would likely be sunny and warmer than normal but not real hot.  

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6112800.png

Worst possible pattern here..mid-90s with humid S/SW flow.

Luckily I’ll be in SE GA where onshore flow looks more likely now. Humid but not insanely hot.

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Pattern coming up looks downright cold! Might have to bring out the jackets and gloves 🥶

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

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(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

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69 degrees at nearly 1pm on a sunny day in July.  Pretty darn pleasant!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Luckily... Lake Sammamish is all good on the map.    And most of Lake Washington as well.    

 

lakesamm.png

I think the fresh water stuff fairs a lot better but give it time

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It has been mostly sunny here from the start today.  A weak marine push usually gets stopped by Rattlesnake Ridge and Tiger Mountain.   Its pretty common in the summer and one reason that my area is often warmer on many days than Seattle.

Yeah… in a normal summer I would be complaining about that, but don’t mind a little more marine layer now after our inferno last weekend.

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30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

69 degrees at nearly 1pm on a sunny day in July.  Pretty darn pleasant!

We are on the sand bar now on Lake Sammamish with the boat.    Much warmer here... currently 77.    No chill to the air at all.    A perfect 4th of July!   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF shows the highest SEA will get in the next 10 days is only 84.  That's bearing in mind it's low in some cases though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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And Phil said we needed to make plans to avoid the rain here on the 4th.   😀

20210704_132440.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was pleasantly surprised by the thick marine layer this morning. Just now getting up above 70. Guessing we'll underperform in this area today. 

Happy 4th of July everyone!

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2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Memorial Day and now the 4th... weather perfection!   I am sure Labor Day will be rainy now... which would be much better than what happened last year.  

20210704_142459.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

These ones here don’t look too good. They were healthy about a week ago. We got off pretty easy compared to other areas with the heat forsure. 

49EBDAF2-6E92-45B2-9613-6623EB7BF75A.jpeg

I'm not sure what species of Maple those are, they may not be native, we should probably stick to measuring the effects of the heat wave with native species...

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

What narrative? There’s literal tree damage across the area worse in some spots than others…we don’t know what the long term effects will be yet. 

Maybe there was some stress caused by the heat.  I'd hesitate in referring to it as 'damage' unless you've picked out certain trees before the heat wave to monitor the before and after effects...  Let's be scientific about this instead of haphazardly throwing around blanket statements about trees you didn't specifically monitor before the heat wave.  Sorry if this sounds anal, but I think things like this can get us into a whole heap of trouble if we don't cross our t's and dot our i's...

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Maybe Tiger Woods is onto something with Salem.  73 in SEA right now and 88 in Salem.  Pretty ridiculous spread.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sitting in our pool sipping a beer and I notice this little guy perched at the top of our American flag. Awesome coloring on him.

Happy Independence Day everyone!

20210704_135742.jpg

That reminds...I need to put my flag out.  I'll probably leave it for the rest of the summer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Geos said:

I was pleasantly surprised by the thick marine layer this morning. Just now getting up above 70. Guessing we'll underperform in this area today. 

Happy 4th of July everyone!

Underperforming might be the first sign of things to come.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

Maybe there was some stress caused by the heat.  I'd hesitate in referring to it as 'damage' unless you've picked out certain trees before the heat wave to monitor the before and after effects...  Let's be scientific about this instead of haphazardly throwing around blanket statements about trees you didn't specifically monitor before the heat wave.  Sorry if this sounds anal, but I think things like this can get us into a whole heap of trouble if we don't cross our t's and dot our i's...

There is one area about 5 miles from here that got roasted.  I was pretty shocked to see it.  I live in an area where easterly dry continental winds can hit one place, but not places a few miles away.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Hmmm.  The GFS seems to be pretty spot on for the temps in Salem today.  It appears it's just poorly suited for handling the marine influence that Seattle sees.  As I've mentioned the GFS has been off by an average of 8 degrees for SEA over the last week on high temps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Drove through the Coast Range today. Really heartbreaking to see the amount of dying pine needles on the trees. Lots of really stressed trees out that way. Lot of my own plants took quite a beating too. I have maple trees dropping dead leaves as if it were the fall, the entire top layer of leaves got burned to a crisp. Rhododendrons and Hydrangeas are starting to recover now but lots of burned up leaves on them. Hoping the climate will show some mercy but I can't help but feel that this dreadful sight of dying vegetation is something that will only become more common 😩 going forward.

 

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hmmm.  The GFS seems to be pretty spot on for the temps in Salem today.  It appears it's just poorly suited for handling the marine influence that Seattle sees.  As I've mentioned the GFS has been off by an average of 8 degrees for SEA over the last week on high temps.

FWIW, the GFS sucks with CAD out this way. Erodes the inversion too quickly 90% of the time. Maybe same thing going on there w/ the marine layer?

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We did it again! 90F!!

D70B5965-958C-4C07-95D1-115715EE758F.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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The 18z GFS shows a legit shot at a day or two with highs in the 60s during week two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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54 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe Tiger Woods is onto something with Salem.  73 in SEA right now and 88 in Salem.  Pretty ridiculous spread.

I’m in Springfield 60 miles south of Salem…

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Farmboy said:

Maybe there was some stress caused by the heat.  I'd hesitate in referring to it as 'damage' unless you've picked out certain trees before the heat wave to monitor the before and after effects...  Let's be scientific about this instead of haphazardly throwing around blanket statements about trees you didn't specifically monitor before the heat wave.  Sorry if this sounds anal, but I think things like this can get us into a whole heap of trouble if we don't cross our t's and dot our i's...

Do you even go around our area and see what we’re seeing? There’s obvious vegetation and tree damage to native and non native vegetation. many people have posted about it. How about you come and see for yourself before just shrugging it off. You are literally over in Idaho you have no idea what you’re talking about 😂.

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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59 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Drove through the Coast Range today. Really heartbreaking to see the amount of dying pine needles on the trees. Lots of really stressed trees out that way. Lot of my own plants took quite a beating too. I have maple trees dropping dead leaves as if it were the fall, the entire top layer of leaves got burned to a crisp. Rhododendrons and Hydrangeas are starting to recover now but lots of burned up leaves on them. Hoping the climate will show some mercy but I can't help but feel that this dreadful sight of dying vegetation is something that will only become more common 😩 going forward.

 

It’s pretty crazy. Things have already been struggling the last several years then last weeks event came along and just poured gasoline on the fire. Pretty sad to see.
 

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS shows a legit shot at a day or two with highs in the 60s during week two.

I really hope so man. I’d so love to be wrong about it being hot this summer I really really do. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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