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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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47 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

64F here for a low.  Probably one of the warmest marine layer mornings I can ever remember 

I was thinking the same thing when i went down for my walk at 5 am. I was going to bring a hoody jacket but once I stepped outside quickly abandoned that idea.  Warm and even a little humid feeling.  Twas nice 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seemed to nail the **** out of the heatwave. That 117 for SLE wasn't so abysmal was it. STOP CHERRY PICKING.

As I say for SEA it's been 10 degrees too high on average over the past several days.  Maybe it's just a more SEA centric thing, but it's awful here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

I was thinking the same thing when i went down for my walk at 5 am. I was going to bring a hoody jacket but once I stepped outside quickly abandoned that idea.  Warm and even a little humid feeling.  Twas nice 

It's definitely humid for sure. But an occasional slight breeze does feel nice. 

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Seeing patches of blue sky already... I was sort of expecting fog and drizzle this morning.    Its not that thick.    But I suspect its deep enough to keep clouds around most of the day with sun breaks at times.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I say for SEA it's been 10 degrees too high on average over the past several days.  Maybe it's just a more SEA centric thing, but it's awful here.

Its a strong inversion thing... it happens.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I say for SEA it's been 10 degrees too high on average over the past several days.  Maybe it's just a more SEA centric thing, but it's awful here.

Reminds me of last February when it ran ridiculously warm as well.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Seeing patches of blue sky already... I was sort of expecting fog and drizzle this morning.    Its not that thick.    But I suspect its deep enough to keep clouds around most of the day with sun breaks at times.

We had an occasional patches of blue skies here as well but it got covered again quickly. It looks like it actually might puke some water, so I don't think the break will happen as fast as it seems because I thought the same thing yesterday but it stuck around for quite a while. 

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13 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

This has to be a culmination of years and years of the blob being there. Now it's on steroids, it went away but it always seem to come back stronger and stronger. 

That's actually close to being a -PDO with the warmth over the GOA.  Once the big surface high sets up over the NE Pacific it will cause upwelling along the coast and colder SSTs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Just like a wave coming in leaving us under sea foam along the beach 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_color+12

8A09AE26-8F59-41B9-9A43-9987660D96E7.jpeg

That is one serious marine layer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is one serious marine layer.

It's not that solid though... the sun has broken through here a couple times already.    

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20210701.175117-over=map-bars=.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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70F under the pleasant marine layer.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Wonder what Mr. Marine Layer has to say about this marine layer. Probably the handiwork of the Libs!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z ECMWF is a little more impressive with a ULL by the middle of next week... even some rain up near the border.     That day ends up being pretty much sunny for most of the area though.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5680800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Worst Canada Day ever for Lytton. Just horrific and most likely a preview of what's to come down here. Hope y'all have your gas masks!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is a little more impressive with a ULL by the middle of next week... even some rain up near the border.     That day ends up being pretty much sunny for most of the area though.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5680800.png

Just keeps parching the dry and cracked ground even more down here.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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54 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I say for SEA it's been 10 degrees too high on average over the past several days.  Maybe it's just a more SEA centric thing, but it's awful here.

Some east side cities can have +10 anomalies on avg high. June 2021 had +10.3 for the month and +10.6 in 2015.

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Worst Canada Day ever for Lytton. Just horrific and most likely a preview of what's to come down here. Hope y'all have your gas masks!

We have about 60-90 days of this to get through, and then we will be able to take a deep breath provided we make it through. Counting down the days until the first fall rains and just hoping time goes by as quickly as possible. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have about 60-90 days of this to get through, and then we will be able to take a deep breath provided we make it through. Counting down the days until the first fall rains and just hoping time goes by as quickly as possible. 

It's only just under 8,000,000 seconds from now. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have about 60-90 days of this to get through, and then we will be able to take a deep breath provided we make it through. Counting down the days until the first fall rains and just hoping time goes by as quickly as possible. 

I am not really worried about rapid fire spread on the west side unless we get an east wind event like we did last September.   Then all bets are off.  So my anxiety is more about the timing of meaningful rain in August ahead of the time of the year when east wind events start happening.     We usually get decent rain in August here... but if that does not happen then we could be in real trouble this year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not really worried about rapid fire spread on the west side unless we get an east wind event like we did last September.   Then all bets are off.  So my anxiety is more about the timing of meaningful rain in August ahead of the time of the year when east wind events start happening.     We usually get decent rain in August here... but if that does not happen then we could be in real trouble this year.

The last time we had decent rain in August down this way was maybe 2010. Seems like I recall a major soaking rain event in August 2004, at least on the east side of the Oregon Cascades where I was camping. Bad timing on that one. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Last time SLE had over 1" of rain in August was 2008. Last time SLE had over 2" of rain in August was 1983. In 130 years of record keeping they have only recorded more than 3" of rain in August once, 1968 when 4.17" fell. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The last time Salem had over 1" of rain in July was 1993. In fact 3 of the past 4 July's at SLE have featured 0.00" of rain. The last time SLE had over 1/2" of rain in July was 2011.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z ECMWF builds the 4CH after that ULL... and it shows temps around 100 in Portland for a couple days later in the week before slightly denting the ridge at the very end of the run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time Salem had over 1" of rain in July was 1993. In fact 3 of the past 4 July's at SLE have featured 0.00" of rain. The last time SLE had over 1/2" of rain in July was 2011.

Yeah... 2017, 2018, and 2020 all featured a very dry July up here.   2019 was decently wet though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time Salem had over 1" of rain in July was 1993. In fact 3 of the past 4 July's at SLE have featured 0.00" of rain. The last time SLE had over 1/2" of rain in July was 2011.

I think 1993 was the year I remember them shooting off the Fourth of July fireworks at Lake Union in Seattle in between bouts of drizzle and rain. It was so chilly that day that when I got home from the fireworks, I built a fire in my wood stove to take the edge off.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF builds the 4CH after that ULL... and it shows temps around 100 in Portland for a couple days later in the week before slightly denting the ridge at the very end of the run.  

Lovely...

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... 2017, 2018, and 2020 all featured a very dry July up here.   2019 was decently wet though.  

A wet July just is not a thing here. Salem has had 3 July's with over 2" of rain in 130 years, interestingly two of them came in the 80s, the other was 1916, which is the wettest July on record with 2.72". 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

65°F and overcast at high noon. Not much temperature range here; last night’s low was 63 after a high of 70 yesterday.

NWS forecast forecast for my area now has no 80+ temps in it for the next week. Winning!

Opposite down here... all 80s after tomorrow.   Although I suspect Wednesday will be cooler and later in the week might reach the low 90s.

Screenshot_20210701-120704_Google.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A wet July just is not a thing here. Salem has had 3 July's with over 2" of rain in 130 years, interestingly two of them came in the 80s, the other was 1916, which is the wettest July on record with 2.72". 

You can see it in the forests. Western Red Cedar is strictly a riparian/wetland tree in the Oregon Cascades. In Washington, you can see them growing away from watercourses. Unfortunately, many of the latter cedars are now sick or dying due to our new, hotter, drier summers.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Lovely...

Pretty clear we are going to be right on the dividing line of the heat and more normal temps, I suspect we will have multiple heatwaves this month as the 4CH builds and then bouts of average-ish weather as it retracts and troughs move by to the north. I think relatively sustained heat/warmth is a good bet. Best case scenario is it is a little suppressed, and we have a decent amount of marine influence. A more likely scenario is sustained warmth like July 2018 or 2014. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Clouds thickening again here with some daytime warming... the marine layer is sort of bubbly today.    Does not look like its going anywhere though.   Its not retreating from any direction.    Its reach the Cascade crest and its entrenched west of there.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty clear we are going to be right on the dividing line of the heat and more normal temps, I suspect we will have multiple heatwaves this month as the 4CH builds and then bouts of average-ish weather as it retracts and troughs move by to the north. I think relatively sustained heat/warmth is a good bet. Best case scenario is it is a little suppressed, and we have a decent amount of marine influence. A more likely scenario is sustained warmth like July 2018 or 2014. 

I think a boring month is on tap, compared to what was a very dynamic June overall.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I would set the +/- mean temp for July at SLE at 72.0 which would be #4 warmest all time behind 2014,15,18. Personally I think one would have to be a fool to take the under. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Clouds thickening again here with some daytime warming... the marine layer is sort of bubbly today.    Does not look like its going anywhere though.   Its not retreating from any direction.    Its reach the Cascade crest and its entrenched west of there.  

It’s breaking up here, but based on yesterday, may well re-form.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would set the +/- mean temp for July at SLE at 72.0 which would be #4 warmest all time behind 2014,15,18. Personally I think one would have to be a fool to take the under. 

I’ll take it!

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22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A wet July just is not a thing here. Salem has had 3 July's with over 2" of rain in 130 years, interestingly two of them came in the 80s, the other was 1916, which is the wettest July on record with 2.72". 

It's happened once or twice down here. There wasn't one dry thunderstorm in 2015 and had a few that washed out parking lots.

There was a cocorahs station with 1.5" that month.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It is terrible with inversions... and we have a significant inversion on the back side of that monster ridge.   But it would be foolhardy to assume it will always be so wrong.   The inversion is going to go away and the GFS has actually been closer to reality with high temps overall compared to the ECMWF.

Not so sure about that. I think it depends on the location and time frame. 

The Euro did quite well for some locations with the heatwave, and has done better than the GFS overall since.

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46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time we had decent rain in August down this way was maybe 2010. Seems like I recall a major soaking rain event in August 2004, at least on the east side of the Oregon Cascades where I was camping. Bad timing on that one. 

"Decent" is subjective, of course, but SLE did have above average rainfall in 2015. And basically average in 2016.

Granted, average is pretty meager in August.

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF builds the 4CH after that ULL... and it shows temps around 100 in Portland for a couple days later in the week before slightly denting the ridge at the very end of the run.  

Models are clearly struggling with the pattern evolution with that offshore ULL past day 5. Can't really put much stock in anything, but what the Euro shows looks like the start of a retrogression.

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