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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Even a bit cooler than yesterday at this time.  Didn't see that coming.  We've gotten into a pretty decent low cloud regime now.  The high temps for the Seattle area have actually been rather pedestrian so far this month and cooler temps are coming.  Even the little mini trough later this week looks decently cool.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Even a bit cooler than yesterday at this time.  Didn't see that coming.  We've gotten into a pretty decent low cloud regime now.  The high temps for the Seattle area have actually been rather pedestrian so far this month and cooler temps are coming.  Even the little mini trough later this week looks decently cool.

Looks warmer than average here. The PNW is more than Washington and if we get smoky, then you eventually will too.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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12 hours ago, SnowChild said:

Tacoma in flames 🔥 

It was an old building.  Fires have been burning buildings for eons.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks warmer than average here. The PNW is more than Washington and if we get smoky, then you eventually will too.

Below normal temps are coming for your area also.  Maybe even Wednesday and or Thursday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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21 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

No one is saying that.

Plenty of people are pounding the unprecedentedly hot summer drum, though. As well as acting like the models always trend warmer.

It has just gotten ridiculous on here.  The models are looking way better, but the doom and gloom narrative hasn't changed.

It's highly possible that aside for the big heat blast the remainder of the summer will end up normal or even a bit on the cool side.  Nothing to suggest the second half of the summer will be the hell people are talking about.

As for the general warm summer trend lately....this stuff is cyclical.  There is strong evidence of terrible Western droughts that lasted for centuries in the not too distant past.  The climate is constantly changing and did so all on its own before man had any possible effect on it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Below normal temps are coming for your area also.  Maybe even Wednesday and or Thursday.

Looks average for temps at best…even on the euro. Even the last few “cool” days were slightly above average…high temps may have been average but low temps were above. But heck average is a win at this point. There’s a few average days and more above average days in the mix for WA and OR. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Another mostly cloudy start to the day. Sure seems like this is the new normal - solid marine layer in the morning with an eventual breakthrough at some point during the day. Been like that for almost a week straight now after seemingly very little days like this before.

Low of 57 this morning.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Everyone here needs to start popping OxyContin so we can get on Jim’s level.

Seriously. I took a mega dose of DMT and couldn't even get there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z GFS shows basically no rain for the next 16 days... but at least BC gets some.     And Phil is going to get a boat load of rain.

gfs-deterministic-namer-total_precip_inch-6868800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows basically no rain for the next 16 days... but at least BC gets some.     And Phil is going to get a boat load of rain.

gfs-deterministic-namer-total_precip_inch-6868800.png

Atleast some of the states in drought are getting some rain but the west coast could sure use some. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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The 4CH gets its arse kicked pretty good on this run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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33 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks average for temps at best…even on the euro. Even the last few “cool” days were slightly above average…high temps may have been average but low temps were above. But heck average is a win at this point. There’s a few average days and more above average days in the mix for WA and OR. 

At any rate there has been nothing even close to historically warm about this month so far and nothing in sight.  The top 5 summer stuff is being overblown based on the guidance we currently have.  From a high temp perspective this month has been pretty typical so far.  The mins have been a bit high, but that will change too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

At any rate there has been nothing even close to historically warm about this month so far and nothing in sight.  The top 5 summer stuff is being overblown based on the guidance we currently have.  From a high temp perspective this month has been pretty typical so far.  The mins have been a bit high, but that will change too.

It's been 120 hours since our last historically warm month. 

Overdoo!

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Wow.  I still can't get over how terrible the GFS surface stuff is for SEA.  How it gets the numbers being shown based on the 500mb pattern coming up is beyond me.

Yesterday was a great example...forecast 87 and actual 77.  I ended up with 79 here with less marine influence.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's been 120 hours since our last historically warm month. 

Overdoo!

Looks like a long while before anything hot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At any rate there has been nothing even close to historically cold about this month so far and nothing in sight.  The top 5 cold stuff is being overblown based on the guidance we currently have.  From a low temp perspective this month has been pretty typical so far.  The maxes have been a bit low, but that will change too.

Imagining this just after our historically cold December to come…

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49 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Another mostly cloudy start to the day. Sure seems like this is the new normal - solid marine layer in the morning with an eventual breakthrough at some point during the day. Been like that for almost a week straight now after seemingly very little days like this before.

Low of 57 this morning.

Wasn't long ago that people were lamenting how they missed marine layer days, and the new normal was little to no marine layer in the summer.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Wasn't long ago that people were lamenting how they missed marine layer days, and the new normal was little to no marine layer in the summer.

For clarification... all of western OR is sunny this morning.    Not much marine layer down there. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It was an old building.  Fires have been burning buildings for eons.

Some people evidently think fire is a relatively recent phenomenon.  I thought it's been around since at least the Paleozoic era...?

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At any rate there has been nothing even close to historically warm about this month so far and nothing in sight.  The top 5 summer stuff is being overblown based on the guidance we currently have.  From a high temp perspective this month has been pretty typical so far.  The mins have been a bit high, but that will change too.

My overnight low was 51° last night here in McMinnville.

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wasn't long ago that people were lamenting how they missed marine layer days, and the new normal was little to no marine layer in the summer.

It’s been trending that way, a couple marine layer mornings at a random location in King County notwithstanding. The trend is especially apparent the further south you go. How you could argue anything otherwise is beyond me, but then I need to remind myself who I am responding to.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For clarification... all of western OR is sunny this morning.    Not much marine layer down there. 

Sure, today.

But there's no doubt the marine layer has made a big-time comeback across the PNW lowlands overall over the past week or so.

It's significantly tempered a period that many were thinking would be much warmer - at least for highs.

The Pacific is still there and still matters.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

 

As for the general warm summer trend lately....this stuff is cyclical.  There is strong evidence of terrible Western droughts that lasted for centuries in the not too distant past.  The climate is constantly changing and did so all on its own before man had any possible effect on it.

 

Screenshot_20210705-115451~2.png

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

It’s been trending that way, a couple marine layer mornings at a random location notwithstanding. The trend is especially apparent the further south you go. How you could argue anything otherwise is beyond me, but then I need to remind myself who I am responding to.

I just thought it was ironic that hawks twelve was now calling it the new normal. 

The cool thing is that most trends don't turn into runaway trends, and some even reverse.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I just thought it was ironic that hawks twelve was now calling it the new normal. 

The cool thing is that most trends don't turn into runaway trends, and some even reverse.

Meaningless babble.

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Somehow almost the entirety of the Western WA lowlands that has been experiencing a stronger-than-anticipated marine layer over the past week has been reduced down to "a random location in King County". 

Here's the marine layer this morning. Man... King County must have really expanded... 

image.png.37b549c025944673b04730a73c031179.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

When was the last time we had a stretch of 90+ degree highs quite like this at my place? 

91,91,94,101,103,100,94,93,94,96,94. That's impressive. I haven't been in a wave like that ever.

Not a lot of data for Sunriver’s climate but it’s definitely been well above average this month so far. This upcoming weekend is looking pretty brutal across the OR/CA high plateau for heat as well.

Upon searching Nowdata there’s a disconnect between the Mesowest station and the NWS station - Nowdata says yesterday was 93/41, which is an incredible 52°F diurnal. 

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9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Not a lot of data for Sunriver’s climate but it’s definitely been well above average this month so far. This upcoming weekend is looking pretty brutal across the OR/CA high plateau for heat as well.

Upon searching Nowdata there’s a disconnect between the Mesowest station and the NWS station - Nowdata says yesterday was 93/41, which is an incredible 52°F diurnal. 

Lows have been in the 50's, not quite as large of a gap here. Still though, heatwaves are known to be relatively short lived in Klamath Falls. 

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6 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

It’s been misting all morning here. Not enough to register in the rain gauge, but it feels great

Pretty interesting situation... you can see the top of the ridge is in the sun on the satellite and yet just below that it was misting from a very low cloud deck.   I wonder how much firework pollutant particles were a factor?   Its pretty gunky out there and it almost looks like ground level smoke hanging around.    Hopefully it mixes out soon.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That ULL that is leftover from the big trough next week keeps getting weaker and farther north on each run.    

The 12Z ECMWF has it meandering around up near south Alaska one week from today.    The 12Z run yesterday showed it had push behind it at that time and it coming south.    Not a trend that some people will mention... but it is noticeable.

12Z run yesterday on top and new 12Z run on the bottom for one week from today:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400 (2).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Predictable copout.

You didn’t say anything. People are talking about observed climate trends that have been going on for years now and you are making obvious statements about long term climate uncertainty as if that somehow negates reality.

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That ULL that is leftover from the big trough next week keeps getting weaker and farther north on each run.    

The 12Z ECMWF has it meandering around up near south Alaska one week from today.    The 12Z run yesterday showed it had push behind it at that time and it coming south.    Not a trend that some people will mention... but it is noticeable.

12Z run yesterday on top and new 12Z run on the bottom for one week from today:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400 (2).png

It’s gonna be cold…lol. We should be above normal by mid July with lots of low to mid 80s and a few mid 70s shown on the euro. Average to a bit above average isn’t bad though. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s gonna be cold…lol. We should be above normal by mid July with lots of low to mid 80s and a few mid 70s shown on the euro. Average to a bit above average isn’t bad though. 

The EPS does not look cold early next week either... out through day 8 so far.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6177600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The EPS does not look cold early next week either... out through day 8 so far.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6177600.png

Hard to imagine July’s going to end up any less than +1.  We will see though it’s still early. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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43 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You didn’t say anything. People are talking about observed climate trends that have been going on for years now and you are making obvious statements about long term climate uncertainty as if that somehow negates reality.

Looks like the marine layer didn't cease to exist entirely, which is what everybody was saying happened. There's still a big ocean to our west, which obviously nobody besides me was smart enough to account for. Also not every single day is into the 90s so this summer isn't very hot. 

I am very intelligent.

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12Z EPS does show a weak troughy signal after day 10... but was quite a bit slower than the 00Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

You didn’t say anything. People are talking about observed climate trends that have been going on for years now and you are making obvious statements about long term climate uncertainty as if that somehow negates reality.

Sounds like you were reading a bit much into what I said... nothing about long term climate uncertainty. 

Just commentary on the nature of *trends*, people's perspective on them, and how sometimes they reverse. 

2009 was a near record sunny summer in Seattle. It was followed by a near record cloudy summer. I think sometimes people can be a bit too prisoner of the moment on here.

Not saying there haven't been less marine layer days in recent years, I'm sure there have. But that doesn't mean it's a trend that can't or won't reverse.

But I understand if you'd prefer to just listen to an unending chorus of Californication.

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28 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Looks like the marine layer didn't cease to exist entirely, which is what everybody was saying happened. There's still a big ocean to our west, which obviously nobody besides me was smart enough to account for. Also not every single day is into the 90s so this summer isn't very hot. 

I am very intelligent.

Get the ad hominem sh*t out of here.

Thanks.

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS does show a weak troughy signal after day 10... but was quite a bit slower than the 00Z run.

So does the GEFS. Probably a case of models jumping a bit too aggressively on the pattern signal yesterday, as they often do.

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Wow we had 2 marine layer days last week and another day the layer burned off about 11am... WHAT A COMEBACK.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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