July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

Obviously that dumb little cutoff low off the coast is going to play a huge role in whether we can get a cool trough in here next week.  Could easily go either way.

Certainly enjoying the cool weather right now!

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would set the +/- mean temp for July at SLE at 72.0 which would be #4 warmest all time behind 2014,15,18. Personally I think one would have to be a fool to take the under. 

SLE is a hotbox, but I'd still take the under.

For OLM, I'd take the under on top 10.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Temps are running about the same as yesterday at this time. It's actually been a blessing to have a couple days like this after the heatwave tbh. 

I don't think anyone would disagree.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

SLE is a hotbox, but I'd still take the under.

For OLM, I'd take the under on top 10.

Not sure why anyone is talking about this being one of the warmest Julys on record yet anyway.  Nothing to suggest it except the nutso GFS surface projections.  After I have 10 days of comparing it to the actual temps I'll post the results and people will see just horrible it is.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Models are clearly struggling with the pattern evolution with that offshore ULL past day 5. Can't really put much stock in anything, but what the Euro shows looks like the start of a retrogression.

All the models are in basic agreement through next week.    That is pretty meaningful.  

Here is the 12Z EPS at day 10... same pattern. 

 

[Jginmartini]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just got blasted with hurricane force winds.

Just saw that on the TWC ! Those lines move quick….probably a good thing

[Deweydog]

On the bright side, PDX pulled off their greatest two day drop in daily max temps on record yesterday. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why anyone is talking about this being one of the warmest Julys on record yet anyway.  Nothing to suggest it except the nutso GFS surface projections.  After I have 10 days of comparing it to the actual temps I'll post the results and people will see just horrible it is.

But its a moving target if it does not have the 500mb pattern correct.    

Side note... the 12Z ECMWF gets pretty warm too.  

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All the models are in basic agreement through next week.    That is pretty meaningful.  

Here is the 12Z EPS at day 10... same pattern. 

 

That ridge barely lasts 2 days. Then it’s back to troughing, if anything.

[Cloud]

My prediction for this month is that we're going to have a lot of rinse and repeat from the previous day... at least through the first half of the month. Will still be above average though. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

That ridge barely lasts a day, then it’s back to troughing.

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown as a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting any cold troughs right now.   

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why anyone is talking about this being one of the warmest Julys on record yet anyway.  Nothing to suggest it except the nutso GFS surface projections.  After I have 10 days of comparing it to the actual temps I'll post the results and people will see just horrible it is.

Because 4 of our 6 warmest July's have come since 2013, and the next week after today is looking pretty toasty. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Because 4 of our 6 warmest July's have come since 2013, and the next week after today is looking pretty toasty. 

Is July 1954 still on the table?    Asking for a friend.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like EUG broke their June 2015 monthly record by a whopping 0.01 degrees. Clutch!

Another warmer and drier than normal month for Springfield (not the airport) as we recorded just 1.20" of rain for June. I really wish there was a proper station here in downtown Springfield for the local mets to use as reference for the differences between this microclimate here and the airport, which is more exposed to winds from all directions.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting an cold troughs right now.   

 

Should be lined up for some cold weather in October... TWL may be a prophet. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown as a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting any cold troughs right now.   

 

Hard to believe that after all these years, you still don’t know how to properly use an ensemble mean.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown as a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting any cold troughs right now.   

 

An east wind event is going to be a city destroyer by late August.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown as a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting any cold troughs right now.   

 

You mean to tell me we're gonna be chasing the carrot on a stick all the way into Sept. or Oct.?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Should be lined up for some cold weather in October... TWL may be a prophet. 

I'm pretty used to our coldest temps being in Oct and early Nov now, with very few days below 40F for a high after that (we've had 4 over the past 2 years in Springfield). Just the new normal.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hard to believe that after all these years, you still don’t know how to use an ensemble mean.  

Hard to believe you can't.    You keep telling us that warm 850mb temps really means cold 850mb temps because of spread... and yet it usually ends up being warm 850mb temps.    I don't know what to tell you.   You are obviously going to keep moving out your prediction for cold troughing every week until eventually the EPS actually shows colder than normal 850mb temps and then you will be right!  

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm pretty used to our coldest temps being in Oct and early Nov now, with very few days below 40F for a high after that. Just the new normal.

That is really unfortunate if you can't even get the coldest temps to come by in the heart of winter around Dec./Jan. 

Moving may not be such a bad idea.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

You mean to tell me we're gonna be chasing the carrot on a stick all the way into Sept. or Oct.?

These last 2 days were supposedly “carrots” as well.

At least we didn’t have to chase them!

[Cloud]

Just now, Phil said:

These last 2 days were supposedly “carrots” as well.

At least we didn’t have to chase them!

Exactly!!! These past two days were forecast to be quite warm and it turned out perfect.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

These last 2 days were supposedly “carrots” as well.

At least we didn’t have to chase them!

Yeah... a strong inversion on the back side of a monster ridge.    That is something you can count on happening.

Side note... SEA was still +3 for the day yesterday.   And SEA is guaranteed to be warmer than normal today as well.   So it is not cold.    

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

That is really unfortunate if you can't even get the coldest temps to come by in the heart of winter around Dec./Jan. 

Moving may not be such a bad idea.

Yup, the far south valley is rapidly becoming worse and worse in a given winter. The median is a pathetic goose-egg of drawing one out of a hat in terms of Arctic cold and snow (The 2010's helped a bit). I wish I could move the family so bad. But the rest of them don't like cold and snow so I'm the oddball but I'm forever grateful to them for saving me from the nightmare of a family situation I had before.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hard to believe you can't.    You keep telling us that warm 850mb temps really means cold 850mb temps because of spread... and yet it usually ends up being warm 850mb temps.    I don't know what to tell you.   You are obviously going to keep moving out your prediction for cold troughing every week until eventually the EPS actually shows colder than normal 850mb temps and then you will be right!  

In other words, you don’t know how to properly use an ensemble mean, or understand English?

I’m not changing expectations. Why should I?

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... a strong inversion on the back side of a monster ridge.    That is something you can count on happening.   

Side note... SEA was still +3 for the day yesterday.   So it is still not cold.   

Thanks to a warmer than normal overnight low? It was normal for the high, so I can't really complain about +3F departure when the low was 60F. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Exactly!!! These past two days were forecast to be quite warm and it turned out perfect.

#Foreverwarm ended before it even started. Haha.

[BLI snowman]

I predict a coolish October and a cold February/March in the next 12 months. Warmth otherwise.

[GobBluth]

Euro highs look wonky on day 8 and day 9 anyway. Slight offshore and warm heights are good for mid 90s, not over 100, then low kicks in and we go back into morning clouds. Looks like a normal summer pattern to me. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

In other words, you don’t know how to properly use an ensemble mean, or understand English?

I’m not changing expectations. Why should I?

I know how to use an ensemble mean to project what what the weather will be like here.   I know when the EPS is wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps for 2 weeks then it will be generally warmer than normal.   And vice versa.    

You have not had any good predictions yet this summer.    It has been completely opposite of what you said.   And now you are once again saying that the EPS mean showing warmer than normal 850 temps is not really what it shows and it will be colder than normal.   Good luck with that.   You said the same thing 2 and 3 weeks ago and its been warmer than normal ever since.  

[TacomaWaWx]

71 and partly sunny here. Should end up a few degrees warmer than yesterday’s high temp of 72. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Couple of interesting facts

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I predict a coolish October and a cold February/March in the next 12 months. Warmth otherwise.

Oct 2019 was decently cold at my place, I forget how that one ranked west of the mountains though.

-3.3 departures from normal Mean is pretty rare now for any time of the year.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I know how to use an ensemble mean to project what what the weather will be like here.   I know when the EPS is wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps for 2 weeks then it will be generally warmer than normal.   And vice versa.    

You have not had any good predictions yet this summer.    It has been completely opposite of what you said.   And now you are once again saying that the EPS mean showing warmer than normal 850 temps is not really what it shows and it will be colder than normal.   Good luck with that.   You said the same thing 2 and 3 weeks ago and its been warmer than normal ever since.  

Thanks for proving my point.  If you knew how to properly interpret an ensemble mean, you wouldn’t have said that.

And I actually didn’t bust at all until mid/late June.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Couple of interesting facts

So basically a coin flip. We don’t really know how this summer will play out. If I had to guess and base it off how things been trending, this summer will end up warmer. For both July and August.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Oct 2019 was decently cold at my place, I forget how that one ranked west of the mountains though.

-3.3 departures from normal Mean is pretty rare now for any time of the year.

It was one of the coldest on record west of the cascades. Had several freezing low temperatures even here near the sound. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Couple of interesting facts

Wait…so you’re telling me a hot June doesn’t equate to a hot July/August? 

What happened to #foreverwarm? Thought it was supposed to be lock because…super niño 2015 did it. Right?

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

So basically a coin flip. We don’t really know how this summer will play out. If I had to guess and base it off how things been trending, this summer will end up warmer. For both July and August.

I’m guessing +1 or +2 for either month at this point. 

[Timmy Supercell]

21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm pretty used to our coldest temps being in Oct and early Nov now, with very few days below 40F for a high after that (we've had 4 over the past 2 years in Springfield). Just the new normal.

Come to think of it, many of my cold temperature anomalies were in Nov or Oct. I had two Novembers in a row (2018/2019) feature pretty good cold snaps. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Oct 2019 was decently cold at my place, I forget how that one ranked west of the mountains though.

-3.3 departures from normal Mean is pretty rare now for any time of the year.

3rd coldest on record at PDX. Last significantly below average month to date for our region.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thanks for proving my point.  If you knew how to properly interpret an ensemble mean, you wouldn’t have said that.

And I actually didn’t bust at all until mid/late June.

Well... in late May you said it was going to be very warm until the middle of June and then turn colder.   You warned Jesse to prepare himself because the first half of June was going to be "fugly" but it would get better in the second half of the month.    The opposite happened.   The first half of June was cool and very wet... and the second half was about as "fugly" as it gets in terms of hot and dry.  

I predict at least 12 of the next 15 days will be warmer than normal in Seattle covering the first half of July.    And today is #1 because even if the temp held steady the rest of the day... its already +1 in Seattle.    What is your prediction?   Lets score it on 7/15!  

[James Jones]

It's kind of annoying when a guy 2500 miles away keeps telling us for weeks about this phantom troughing coming up that hasn't materialized and isn't going to in the near future. We're the ones who actually have to live here and deal with this crappy heat, drought and wildfires.

It's also amazing how out of whack people's idea of "cool" is after the heatwave, yesterday wasn't enough to drop any I5 corridor station down to normal. Even with the new normals the averages at PDX and SEA for July 1st are 78/56 and 74/55 respectively.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It was one of the coldest on record west of the cascades. Had several freezing low temperatures even here near the sound. 

It was also two months in a row I had end cold (Sep -2.0, Oct -3.3). I was banking on a cool November but that's hard to do sometimes. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, James Jones said:

It's kind of annoying when a guy 2500 miles away keeps telling us for weeks about this phantom troughing coming up that hasn't materialized and isn't going to in the near future. We're the ones who actually have to live here and deal with this crappy heat, drought and wildfires.

It's also amazing how out of whack people's idea of "cool" is after the heatwave, yesterday wasn't enough to drop any I5 corridor station down to normal. Even with the new normals the averages at PDX and SEA for July 1st are 78/56 and 74/55 respectively.

This... times 100.   Exactly how I feel right now.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

It was also two months in a row I had end cold (Sep -2.0, Oct -3.3). I was banking on a cool November but that's hard to do sometimes. 

2019 was a dry and cold fall…November was normal but September and October were below normal. Was a very memorable fall because of the vibrant tree colors…some record cold low temps and many amazing sunrises/sunsets here. Not to mention some great thunderstorms in September and October. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... in late May you said it was going to be very warm until the middle of June and then turn colder.   You warned Jesse to prepare himself because the first half of June was going to be "fugly" but it would get better in the second half of the month.    The opposite happened.   The first half of June was cool and very wet... and the second half was about as "fugly" as it gets in terms of hot and dry.  

I predict at least 12 of the next 15 days will be warmer than normal in Seattle covering the first half of July.    And today is #1 because even if the temp held steady the rest of the day... its already +1 in Seattle.    What is your prediction?   Lets score it on 7/15!  

I actually predicted a warm spell in early June followed by mid-month troughing, but thanks for playing.

You want to challenge me to a forecast contest? Alright, lets extend it through September and I’ll do it.

[snow drift]

3 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

OT, but just got my driver’s license!

Storm chasing and cold chasing adventures await!

No smoke chasing

[snow drift]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wait…so you’re telling me a hot June doesn’t equate to a hot July/August? 

What happened to #foreverwarm? Thought it was supposed to be lock because…super niño 2015 did it. Right?

Spokane will have a warmer than average July.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS has us in a weak trough at least 3/4 of the time over the next half month.  I think people are getting carried away with this scorching July thing.