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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not if all the trees die around here and then our house burns down.    If I had my way... it would never be above 90 and rain once a week.    Your forest would look much better.     But hey... none of us control any of it.   So we get to live in fear of a firestorm.  

Interestingly I was never worried about fires until last year. My wife always talked about the possibility and I would dismiss it. Then that all happened. It doesn't even seem real. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The GFS really loves ULLs. Worse than the old Euro ever was in that regard.

Can’t recall a single GFS run since March that didn’t go ULL crazy in the medium/long range. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The GFS really loves ULLs. Worse than the old Euro ever was in that regard.

Can’t recall a single GFS run since March that didn’t go ULL crazy in the medium/long range. 

If it means hot weather here it will verify. 100%

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you make it to Central California? They have given up and ripped out quite a few of the almond orchards. The land that is not irrigated is bare earth in places. 

Yeah, that area between Pea Soup and Patterson, maybe one of out of ten orchards had rows and rows of trees pulled along with a large mulcher. Also quite a bit of land for sale as well but I guess that isn't too unusual.

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3 hours ago, SnowChild said:

Yes I noticed this as well. The entire NW face is melted put. Normally don’t see it like that until end of August. 

I wonder what that does to the stability of the mountain. That late August brown only lasts a few weeks before being coated or frozen in early September. We we could have 2-3 months of brown. To add a bit more doom to this, that side of the mountain has an issue where the groundwater is acidic and turning rock into clay.

I wonder how the Carbon glacier is doing.

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interestingly I was never worried about fires until last year. My wife always talked about the possibility and I would dismiss it. Then that all happened. It doesn't even seem real. 

I know that the scale of the fires up here isn’t near what happened down there in September…but that fire in Bonney lake was pretty crazy to see. On top of what happened in Oregon it’s just crazy to see these things happening. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interestingly I was never worried about fires until last year. My wife always talked about the possibility and I would dismiss it. Then that all happened. It doesn't even seem real. 

After seeing what happened on the west side down there last September... I am now keenly aware of what strong east winds can do when its dry.   And we are very prone to east wind here.   So if the timing is right (before the fall rains)... it can definitely happen here as well. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

This is both heartless and manages to miss the point. Some of us truly care about our native vegetation, native wildlife, our glaciers, the outdoor activities that make the PNW the PNW. You can’t just say “it is what it is” and expect people with actual attachments to our area to think that’s logical. 

Coastal glaciated mountain range, that’s as rare and epic as it comes in the contiguous US. Massive glaciated volcanos. Orca pods and salmon runs. Every time you post about this you act like things change and that’s that, which is true, but you ignore what will be lost and what will suffer. 
 

Will the western Toad pollywogs my kids found at our little lake today still be here in 30 years? Will the ferry captain still be calling out Orca sightings? Will we still hear the Pikas chirping in the rocks at Mt Rainier? 

If you say who cares, so be it. But it’s so 33 for you to combat people on this. 

 

This.

And to add insult to injury, all of the pious "embrace change" talk is in the context of years of gaslighting, acting like there isn't a problem in the first place, pretending like what is normal for here isn't, demonizing people for "hating sun" just because they know it's not healthy for our region to run precip defecits month after month, year after year. And playing a sickly sweet innocent act all the while.

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23 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

This is both heartless and manages to miss the point. Some of us truly care about our native vegetation, native wildlife, our glaciers, the outdoor activities that make the PNW the PNW. You can’t just say “it is what it is” and expect people with actual attachments to our area to think that’s logical. 

Coastal glaciated mountain range, that’s as rare and epic as it comes in the contiguous US. Massive glaciated volcanos. Orca pods and salmon runs. Every time you post about this you act like things change and that’s that, which is true, but you ignore what will be lost and what will suffer. 
 

Will the western Toad pollywogs my kids found at our little lake today still be here in 30 years? Will the ferry captain still be calling out Orca sightings? Will we still hear the Pikas chirping in the rocks at Mt Rainier? 

If you say who cares, so be it. But it’s so f U c k Ed for you to combat people on this. 

 

I never said who cares... but the universe truly does not care.   What is native to an area changes all the time.    We care because we want things to remain the same based on what we know.  This is true in all aspects of life.   You can tell me the same things about my life and my environment and its the same reality.     Things change.

My original point was that I hope people find happiness somewhere.   People are really down... more than ever.   I understand it.   And I don't think climate change will stop.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This.

And to add insult to injury, all of the pious "embrace change" talk is in the context of years of gaslighting, acting like there isn't a problem in the first place, pretending like what is normal for here isn't, demonizing people for "hating sun" just because they know it's not healthy for our region to run precip defecits month after month, year after year. And playing a sickly sweet innocent act all the while.

Demonizing people is what you do.    All the time.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I never said who cares... but the universe truly does not care.   What is native to an area changes all the time.    We care because we want things to remain the same based on what we know.  This is true in all aspects of life.   You can tell me the same things about my life and my environment and its the same reality.     Things change.

My original point was that I hope people find happiness somewhere.   People are really down... more than ever.   I understand it.   And I don't think climate change will stop.  

Come on Tim, this is just nihilism with a layer of Zen makeup. If we knew for months in advance that a 6 mile diameter meteor was headed towards us, would you say we shouldn't try to deflect it or break it up because it's natural and happened before 66 million years ago? And if you think we should try to do something in that scenario, why would it be any different for climate change and environmental degradation if we thought we could do something about it?

Of course the planet will recover just fine in a relative geological blink almost no matter what do, but what most people care about is maintaining conditions to continue prosperous and healthy human civilization long into the future.

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11 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Come on Tim, this is just nihilism with a layer of Zen makeup. If we knew for months in advance that a 6 mile diameter meteor was headed towards us, would you say we shouldn't try to deflect it or break it up because it's natural and happened before 66 million years ago? And if you think we should try to do something in that scenario, why would it be any different for climate change if we thought we could do something about it?

Of course the planet will recover just fine in a relative geological blink almost no matter what do, but what most people care about is maintaining conditions to continue prosperous and healthy human civilization long into the future.

This is all true but it might not be in our control.    Ironically... deflecting an asteroid might be easier than reversing climate change which might be happening on a natural scale as well.    But we should do everything we can.  

And climate change is not all bad... some areas will benefit.  Humans have thrived because the world is currently in a stable, relatively warm inter-glacial period.   A super-volcano could send things quickly in the other direction and wipe out humanity in short order.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the marine layer is creeping into the Shelton area as we speak. 68 and clear nice summer night. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hey Tim, hate to break it to you, but there is a 50% chance your wife will leave you once your youngest goes to college. Sorry. Stuff happens. 

He also has the chance to meet a much younger woman. Stuff happens. 🤣

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like the marine layer is creeping into the Shelton area as we speak. 68 and clear nice summer night. 

ECMWF pushes the low clouds all the way out here by morning and then it clears from the SE to NW around noon.   Not sure I believe the clearing will be that thorough.   

Here is the cloud loop for the next 2 days... which includes high clouds as well but its pretty easy to track the low clouds.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-1625616000-1625616000-1625788800-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, SnowChild said:

He also has the chance to meet a much younger woman. Stuff happens. 🤣

For the record... I would never do that.   👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Come on Tim, this is just nihilism with a layer of Zen makeup. If we knew for months in advance that a 6 mile diameter meteor was headed towards us, would you say we shouldn't try to deflect it or break it up because it's natural and happened before 66 million years ago? And if you think we should try to do something in that scenario, why would it be any different for climate change and environmental degradation if we thought we could do something about it?

Of course the planet will recover just fine in a relative geological blink almost no matter what do, but what most people care about is maintaining conditions to continue prosperous and healthy human civilization long into the future.

I saw both those movies!  Both were pretty awful, but were released in 1998. Had a nice little Arctic blast that December……

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 hours ago, Phil said:

I was texting with my cousin this afternoon and she was complaining about the weather in your area in the coming days, she is headed to somewhere in Maryland tomorrow for her son's lacrosse tournament.

Humidity has been pretty brutal here the past few weeks...I really hope this does not become a recurring theme for this summer.

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Yeah we did have an awesome sunset tonight. Still balmy out there. 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is all true but it might not be in our control.    Ironically... deflecting an asteroid might be easier than reversing climate change which might be happening on a natural scale as well.    But we should do everything we can.  

And climate change is not all bad... some areas will benefit.  Humans have thrived because the world is currently in a stable, relatively warm inter-glacial period.   A super-volcano could send things quickly in the other direction and wipe out humanity in short order.  

Warmer means longer growing seasons and potentially better crop yields. Cold is far more damaging to humans.

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Currently 60F and comfortable.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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42 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I was texting with my cousin this afternoon and she was complaining about the weather in your area in the coming days, she is headed to somewhere in Maryland tomorrow for her son's lacrosse tournament.

Humidity has been pretty brutal here the past few weeks...I really hope this does not become a recurring theme for this summer.

S**t season is here. Thankfully not very hot yet, just oppressive.

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A major new wildfire in S. Central Oregon. 

Bootleg Fire 76-2

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The Bootleg Fire was reported at 1:45pm today and is now burning 3,000 acres. 

(Image: SCOFMP)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Surprise light show and low thunder off to the east.  Both GFS and Euro showed a swath of clouds racing up from the south at this time, but none generated much of any action.  Still, nice to see but scary given the lightning strikes into the forest.

211830577_10224656202546109_7529704507530102599_n.jpg

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Marine layer coming in from two directions into the Seattle metro now.

 

070721sat.png

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Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

Guidance has gotten pretty outrageous with the +NAO during mid-July. Might be pushing records.

Is this what we’ll be blaming our next record shattering heat wave on?

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5 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Thanks for sharing these!  Do you have PDX?

Better than I expected for PDX... no 90s on either:

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-5616000.png

gfs-ensemble-all-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-5637600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like a decent new fire east of k falls.

 

looks like that is the bootleg fire, not on the Oregon fire map yet.  But you can see it spreading already just in today’s daylight 

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