July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There is actually more and thicker stratus here than previous days. There has been a trend, over the past week, of there being less low clouds here than further south. Many of my recent mornings have been clear or only partly cloudy, all the while people to the south were posting about being socked in.

It would be no surprise if this trend continues today. Despite the sunshine, the sea breezes have been vigorous and have kept afternoons cool here. I also expect that trend to continue.

It's been clear here every morning.  If the marine layer is on the weaker side, it struggles to make it much past Woburn with its easterly progression. Sometimes we will get a little finger of clouds extending east up Sunset a little ways.  It clearly has a much easier time over your way with the flat terrain.  

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That was a tiny town and it went up in flames in 15 minutes.    That is not really the source of his smoke.   His smoke appears to be coming from massive fires in Manitoba and western Ontario.

So Central Canada then, Phil can have it. Just hope the winds don’t blow it this way. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Geos said:

Marine layer seems a bit thicker this morning. Sitting at 57° right now. 

The push through the Chelalis Gap is weaker this morning... its not feeding more marine layer clouds into the Seattle area.

It looks like the entire area of low clouds over the Seattle area will be dissolving uniformly later this morning.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On 7/1/2021 at 10:41 AM, TT-SEA said:

It is terrible with inversions... and we have a significant inversion on the back side of that monster ridge.   But it would be foolhardy to assume it will always be so wrong.   The inversion is going to go away and the GFS has actually been closer to reality with high temps overall compared to the ECMWF.

Models in general struggle with inversions. Inversions are the chief cause of busted high temperature forecasts in this region.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It's been clear here every morning.  If the marine layer is on the weaker side, it struggles to make it much past Woburn with its easterly progression. Sometimes we will get a little finger of clouds extending east up Sunset a little ways.  It clearly has a much easier time over your way with the flat terrain.  

Bellingham has an amazing variety of microclimates for a city its size. I remember how much temperature variety there was (which lasted for a day or two!) when the January 2019 cold snap wound down. That was fun to experience.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I will gladly give you the death ridge. Hopefully Jims right about this summer…but he’s pretty much always calling for the next anomalous cold every week or two it seems so it’s hard to tell with him. 

I planned a vacation July 9-21 anticipating a death ridge. Unfortunately, everything has evolved more slowly than I expected, and now I’ll probably be returning home just before the hellfire begins, instead of the ending. Just an epic fail all around. 

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Shawnigan’s smoke has arrived here.

That must’ve been a crazy f**king situation out there. Have never seen the sky look like this in early July. Ever.

About 200,000 acres burned last 7-10 days. Pretty crazy for early July.  Though BCs fire season peaks earlier than further south 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The push through the Chelalis Gap is weaker this morning... its not feeding more marine layer clouds into the Seattle area.

It looks like the entire area of low clouds over the Seattle area will be dissolving uniformly later this morning.

A thinner marine layer as coastal SST’s are cooling?

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

About 200,000 acres burned last 7-10 days. Pretty crazy for early July.  Though BCs fire season peaks earlier than further south 

Yea its raining up there by late august or so usually right?

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I planned a vacation July 9-21 anticipating a death ridge. Unfortunately, everything has evolved more slowly than I expected, and now I’ll probably be returning home just before the hellfire begins, instead of the ending. Just an epic fail all around. 

A vacation is a vacation all you can do is enjoy it in the moment despite the weather waiting for you at home. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 76F and another clear and warm day upcoming.

[Geos]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The push through the Chelalis Gap is weaker this morning... its not feeding more marine layer clouds into the Seattle area.

It looks like the entire area of low clouds over the Seattle area will be dissolving uniformly later this morning.

Just seems a bit darker than it did this time yesterday. I noticed the clouds made more of an advance over the Bellingham area overnight. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Completely clear overhead here. Can still see a fog bank to the west.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hopefully they get that fire down in southern OR under control. Enjoying the cloudy start to the day has been nice getting a marine layer to some extent every day the last week. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just because I recently mentioned it: January 2019. Fun times.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS seems really intent on preventing troughing from digging into the PNW and bring some rain... every time a ULL gets close it gets pulled back by another one digging down into the GOA.     Definitely no heat waves in sight though.

 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hopefully they get that fire down in southern OR under control. Enjoying the cloudy start to the day has been nice getting a marine layer to some extent every day the last week. 

Perfect running weather! I remember one morning while visiting family we started the day with low clouds and mist, and my body loved it. Both cooling and hydrating.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wasn’t it just a week ago that everyone was observing how there just hadn’t been much of a marine layer this summer?

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wasn’t it just a week ago that everyone was observing how there just hadn’t been much of a marine layer this summer?

Wasn’t much until now. Hopefully it sticks around through most of the summer. 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

A thinner marine layer as coastal SST’s are cooling?

Obviously the upper levels matter as well.     Onshore flow is weaker today.    I just think colder SSTs off the coast add to the marine layer clouds and stubbornness to burn off... everything else being equal.    

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yea its raining up there by late august or so usually right?

Sometimes. But longer nights and higher humidities generally help to cool the aggressive fire activity that’s more common in July thru mid to late august.  By late August you are generally into longer cool mornings and very often frost as you head a bit north. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Sometimes. But longer nights and higher humidities generally help to cool the aggressive fire activity that’s more common in July thru mid to late august.  By late August you are generally into longer cool mornings and very often frost as you head a bit north. 

Crying with lust and envy

Some day I’ll live in a climate that sees signs of autumn before the second week of October.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

19 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wasn’t it just a week ago that everyone was observing how there just hadn’t been much of a marine layer this summer?

There hasn't been much of one at all here.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

There hasn't been much of one at all here.

Totally different story from Portland southward.   But its been much more noticeable up here since the end of the heat wave. 

[TT-SEA]

This persistent onshore pattern is definitely beneficial towards keeping the smoke out of the western WA and OR and moving east.    High pressure over BC would be the worst scenario right now. 

[TT-SEA]

There does not seem to be much smoke up in BC right now...

 

[snow_wizard]

Surface pressure anoms over the NE Pacific already appear they could be on course to be the highest on record for the month of July this month.  Obviously it's early, but the models keep pressure super high over the NE Pacific for the next two weeks.  It will be interesting to see if the upper level stuff comes more into line of what would normally be expected with episodes of very high surface pressure out there.  That would be NE Pacific ridge / NW trough.

This surface pressure setup is highly favorable for low PDO.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the immediate Seattle area and south King County holding on the longest... but the burn off is pretty much uniform and much earlier today.   The sun was out here early this morning and then we fogged in... but the sun is back out now.    You can also see the source has been cut off through the Chelalis Gap.    That will change tomorrow and Thursday though.  

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

There hasn't been much of one at all here.

You've had onshore flow, but haven't been able to get an inversion to develop like we have here.

[Front Ranger]

How far into the 90s did the GFS have SEA today?

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How far into the 90s did the GFS have SEA today?

I think it's shows 105 for Seattle today.    Probably not going to get there.   

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the ECMWF has been handling the low cloud pattern very well for the last week.   It shows clearing from south to north by early afternoon tomorrow... so it might not stay cloudy all day despite the weak trough overhead.    Possibly a weaker inversion with colder air aloft.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF also shows Thursday afternoon being mostly sunny for the Seattle area.

[The Blob]

I was starting to think I might run out of popcorn with all the bickering on here

[Jesse]

Sunny and up to 70 now.

[Jesse]

Looks like the 12z Euro is coming in a lot warmer for early next week.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I was starting to think I might run out of popcorn with all the bickering on here

It's anxiety for some of us. We have no control over the atmosphere so having to pack a pre-emptive fire bag is pretty shitty.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not entirely sure if it's just the specific orientation of the onshore flow, but it sure seems like my area is among the last to burn off the marine layer lately.

I was noticing that too... and I think you are correct.   The angle of the flow pushes into your area but it gets stopped by the ridge behind our house which is NE of you... and it just piles up in your area.   That is also why it's been quite a bit sunnier here over the last week thanks to that 3,000 foot ridge between us. 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It's anxiety for some of us. We have no control over the atmosphere so having to pack a pre-emptive fire bag is pretty shitty.

Probably not quite as distressing as having to make some last minute reservations in Othello.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Probably not quite as distressing as having to make some last minute reservations in Othello.

You mean Chelan or Couer D'Alene?  That was our destination choices so far this summer.  Both depressing and horrible locations!   We made it to Spokane and Couer D'Alene.  But canceled the trip over the 4th because we did not want to go from 80s back into hotter weather.  

Its just like you escaping to the coast or high elevations when it gets hot.    People like to go where there is weather they enjoy.   You just hate my preferences.    But it has no impact on you.