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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Looks like a decent new fire east of k falls

Yeah it really blew up last night in the evening hours. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Bootleg Fire was reported at 1:45pm today and is now burning 3,000 acres. 

(Image: SCOFMP)

Wanted to take a trip tomorrow down to a crystal clear creek that drains into the Klamath River just NW of Chiloquin.

Looks like I’ll have to reconsider now.

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Fire resources are going to be strained this year since this fire seasons starting early…could be close to twice the length of a normal fire season. We’re at early to mid august levels of dryness basically. Seems more necessary than ever that we get some rain regionally. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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38 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Wanted to take a trip tomorrow down to a crystal clear creek that drains into the Klamath River just NW of Chiloquin.

Looks like I’ll have to reconsider now.

Spring Creek that drains into Williamson River? At Collier State Park? Might as well, that whole area burned last September. The day use area is still open though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Here are a couple pics I took from the day use area at Collier State Park. The fire was mostly along the north bank of Spring Creek in that area, though it did jump the stream in spots. The logging museum looks like it survived. 

This was the Two Four Two Fire and it burned about 14,500 acres in the days following Labor Day. 33 structures were destroyed 48 damaged. 

 

No description available.

No description available.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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SLE hit 95 yesterday. Going to be a pretty big drop between today and yesterday. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here are a couple pics I took from the day use area at Collier State Park. The fire was mostly along the north bank of Spring Creek in that area, though it did jump the stream in spots. The logging museum looks like it survived. 

No description available.

No description available.

Went through that area not long ago and yes the logging museum survived.  Unsure how the campground did but looked like it was in the burn zone :( .   

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12 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Went through that area not long ago and yes the logging museum survived.  Unsure how the campground did but looked like it was in the burn zone :( .   

My Dad was messaging me about it for some reason yesterday. He said he read 370 out of 450 acres of the park burned, and the Oregon department of Forestry was giving the parks department 276,000 Ponderosa seedlings for re-planting in the next year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Measurable rain! 0.01" so far.

Pretty sad we’re getting excited about hundredths of an inch. Still nothing here. Looking like this dry streak will go to atleast 30 days here potentially longer. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Sunny here this morning. Looks like the rain chances will miss us to the east.  Hopefully some rain for the interior.   There has been nearly daily tstorms in the bc interior over the past week.  I imagine there is going to be many holdover fire starts in the next week or so if things heat up and dry out a little more. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Pretty sad we’re getting excited about hundredths of an inch. Still nothing here. Looking like this dry streak will go to atleast 30 days here potentially longer. 

We'll take what we can get.

At this point our best realistic hope is to just ride out the rest of the midsummer period with as much humid, relatively cool onshore flow as possible. Fire season ending rains won't happen until late August if we're lucky, but as long as the pattern features occasional days like this we can save off any calamities west of the mountains.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We'll take what we can get.

At this point our best realistic hope is to just ride out the rest of the midsummer period with as much humid, relatively cool onshore flow as possible. Fire season ending rains won't happen until late August if we're lucky, but as long as the pattern features occasional days like this we can save off any calamities west of the mountains.

Yeah hopefully we can avoid any strong ridging and offshore flow through most or all of the summer. Some rain would be nice too. Still only early July though…have a couple months to get through. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah hopefully we can avoid any strong ridging and offshore flow through most or all of the summer. Some rain would be nice too. Still only early July though…have a couple months to get through. 

Yeah, August has been our hotbox lately. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like Detroit Dam hit 111 with the heatwave. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, August has been our hotbox lately. 

We’re still not fully into our warmest driest part of the year in terms of climo. The fact it’s already this dry beforehand is the alarming part. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My Dad was messaging me about it for some reason yesterday. He said he read 370 out of 450 acres of the park burned, and the Oregon department of Forestry was giving the parks department 276,000 Ponderosa seedlings for re-planting in the next year. 

Looks like the Jackson Kimball state park (Wood River headwaters) is farther from the fire and I don’t think it burned. Maybe go there instead?

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

You westerners and your pollution.

🤮

Again... your problem is from central Canada.   Darn Canadians! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

POLAR VORTEX

image.thumb.png.f37a1f081dae672a42ede867ce7ca183.png

There has been a rather strong Arctic low wandering around up there this summer, and looks like it will continue and strengthen in coming days.

What does it mean? Ask Phil.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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67 mostly cloudy and breezy. Might actually get our first negative departure since 6/15…maybe. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Some signs of a little rain at the end of the euro but not very much. It’s something I guess. Like BLI said…as long as we’ve got this kind of weather for the most part we should be ok on the west side for now. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Again... your problem is from central Canada.   Darn Canadians! 

D**n Shawnigan. 😂

Will see if I can find archives but I think it’s both.

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There has been a rather strong Arctic low wandering around up there this summer, and looks like it will continue and strengthen in coming days.

What does it mean? Ask Phil.

Perhaps if it appears it’s going to approach us we can send Bruce Willis and Steve Buscemi up there to drill and blow it to smithereens.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There has been a rather strong Arctic low wandering around up there this summer, and looks like it will continue and strengthen in coming days.

What does it mean? Ask Phil.

Lol. Just hope it stays closer to AK/Yukon than Greenland. The latter position has been associated with lots of torching throughout the 2013-18 period. 

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The 12z ECMWF has a new shortwave crossing Vancouver Island hr84-90. Which enhances onshore flow across W-WA compared to 00z.

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Some signs of a little rain at the end of the euro but not very much. It’s something I guess. Like BLI said…as long as we’ve got this kind of weather for the most part we should be ok on the west side for now. 

May very well wind up being a perfectly reasonable month when all is said and done, so far it appears that way at least. I think we were all just hoping the pendulum would swing a little further in the other direction following the insanity of a historic dry spring and the hottest week ever.

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1975-1977 was thought to be a once in 500 to 1000 year occurrence. 2019-2021 says hold my beer. This comes after the 500 year 2011-2015 drought. This appears to be a new normal for everyone south of Portland

 

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36 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

1975-1977 was thought to be a once in 500 to 1000 year occurrence. 2019-2021 says hold my beer. This comes after the 500 year 2011-2015 drought. This appears to be a new normal for everyone south of Portland

 

Unfortunately, as we've discussed on here a few times recently, there have been some insanely dry periods for much of the West in the past - much drier than most of the past century or two.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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19 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

State of emergency declared for the entire state thru sept 30 for growing risks of wildfires. 

Not all that surprising and it’s about time. 

Odd that they'd extend it all the way out to 9/30. Obviously they aren't expecting a ton of precip between now and then per climo and recent history, but a lot can change in a month or two.

Now watch Mother Nature send a deluge to the PNW later this month just to spite Inslee.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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27 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

60°F at 1:30 pm and there are thin spots showing in the overcast.

71 here…probably not even going to be more than -1 or -2 departure today. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Odd that they'd extend it all the way out to 9/30. Obviously they aren't expecting a ton of precip between now and then per climo and recent history, but a lot can change in a month or two.

Now watch Mother Nature send a deluge to the PNW later this month just to spite Inslee.

What a blessing that would be. The ultimate governor jinx. Lol I think they will probably keep the burn ban in place the rest of the summer even if we had copious rainfall to be honest. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Odd that they'd extend it all the way out to 9/30. Obviously they aren't expecting a ton of precip between now and then per climo and recent history, but a lot can change in a month or two.

Now watch Mother Nature send a deluge to the PNW later this month just to spite Inslee.

I don’t think it’s all that odd or confusing. It seems like it’s a summer extension kind of thing with fire risks growing. 

 

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