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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Dew point above 80°F! Fun times!

Seriously, the one afternoon BLI had with DP’s in the mid/upper 70’s a week and a day ago was bad enough.

The worst here was 106 with a DP of 72. Have never felt anything like it. Was truly horrible. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Dew point above 80°F! Fun times!

Seriously, the one afternoon BLI had with DP’s in the mid/upper 70’s a week and a day ago was bad enough.

Pretty much the same thing... you can speak from experience now! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA jumped 6 degrees in the last hour... up to 77 now and will probably get over 80.   Inversion is definitely weaker today.

Days like today BFI continues and consistently run 1-2 degrees warmer than SEA…. But it can’t get over SEA during a heatwave. 😆 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty much the same thing... you can speak from experience now! 

Stepping outside felt just like walking into a bathroom that was hot and steamy from someone just taking a shower in it. Brought back childhood memories of Illinois summers.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Stepping outside felt just like walking into a bathroom that was hot and steamy from someone just taking a shower in it. Brought back childhood memories of Illinois summers.

thats a perfect analogy. I could actually feel it while reading this. 

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows a big trough at mid month.  Well below normal temps if it verifies.

FWIW... the EPS looks like the ECMWF and the coolest day is actually tomorrow.    Temps dip down to just slightly below normal next week and then it turns warmer.     I am not sure there are any "well below" normal days in sight yet.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5572800 (1).jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 18z GFS actually has 4 short waves tracking across WA over the next week, each  delivering an onshore component. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The 18z GFS actually has 4 short waves tracking across WA over the next week, each  delivering an onshore component. 

Offshore flow is pretty rare in the summer... there is almost always an onshore component.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Dew point above 80°F! Fun times!

Seriously, the one afternoon BLI had with DP’s in the mid/upper 70’s a week and a day ago was bad enough.

My condolences. 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Offshore flow is pretty rare in the summer... there is almost always an onshore component.  

It’s all relative, I suppose.

If these last 2-3 days had an enhanced marine inversion, I don’t see why any of those short waves wouldn’t do likewise.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You have A/C dude.    Many people here don't.    

Correct…that’s why I lent him my condolences.

What is this post? :lol: 

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The HRRR seems to have been upgraded... the maps are improved.   And I have noticed its been pretty good with low cloud coverage during the recent inversion period.     

It actually looks like the ECMWF for tomorrow... with plenty of afternoon sun.  

 

hrrr-washington-total_cloud-5702400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s all relative, I suppose.

If these last 2-3 days had an enhanced marine inversion, I don’t see why any of those short waves wouldn’t do likewise.

Its quite tricky.   Tomorrow and Thursday will definitely have enhanced marine influence.   But the ECMWF has been adamant that the marine influence and low cloud coverage is very minimal from Friday - Tuesday.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah…that’s why I lent him my condolences.

What is this post? :lol: 

You have a way of escaping... just like we have a way of escaping the cold of winter.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its quite tricky.   Tomorrow and Thursday will definitely have enhanced marine influence.   But the ECMWF has been adamant that the marine influence and low cloud coverage is very minimal from Friday - Tuesday.   

Yeah prudent to be skeptical of anything GFS projects.

Case in point. the GFS was printing out 1” of QPF here this afternoon, while the ECMWF had nothing. Guess who won? (As if it weren’t already obvious).

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

We were down near Eatonville yesterday and I can't remember seeing Mt. Rainier so bare before. Almost the entire left side of it is snow-free. It was pretty striking to see.

NWS SEA posted a time lapse of the last month or so on their Twitter from the crystal mountain webcam a few days ago…and yeah it was pretty shocking how fast the top of Crystal was bare and mount rainiers snow very quickly melted. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You have a way of escaping... just like we have a way of escaping the cold of winter.  

Correct. Still not sure what you were responding to, but okay.

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1 minute ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Driving thru, Rainier is bare, St.  Helens is bare, Hood is bare. 

It was record setting up there too…and IIRC there was an inversion right after the heatwave so the upper levels were still pretty warm despite it cooling off down in the lowlands. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS randomly blows up and stall out a typhoon out in the NPAC. #NotGonnaHappen

D1A87CA3-E1B7-4FB6-9FA8-FFD14FE4363A.gif

That is a circle parade of ULLs around the globe.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The fire down in southern OR seems to be putting out more smoke. Hopefully it’s contained very soon. 

3B61E972-1511-48F8-A4F4-672852763FD4.jpeg

It's going to blow up this afternoon. South facing slopes too. Also up to 94 at Roseburg with 13% humidity. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just a wickedly hot afternoon out there. EUG up to 93 on the hour, they and SLE are going to make a run at the mid-90s today. The Dalles up to 103, even Burns at 4100' on the high desert is sitting at the century mark. Ontario on the Idaho border is 105 on the hour. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It's hard to explain how dry it is from about Roseburg south if you haven't seen it. For as parched as the WV is, it looks like the garden of Eden compared to points south. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Jack Fire up to 1500 acres now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

thats a perfect analogy. I could actually feel it while reading this. 

Same here. Hottest actual temperature I experienced before this past wave was 104° in northern Illinois. Never thought I'd experience 110° and humid heat here!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Been hovering around 83° in the Kenmore area for a bit. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12 minutes ago, iFred said:

Drove through that area a couple days ago (the stretch from Grants Pass to Cottage Grove are home to the best sun rises this side of Philadelphia). Everything was browned out. I had a pit stop and noticed some significant stress on some of th parking lot maples. I left with the feeling like we were getting to the climax of the recent mega drought. At what point do you just give up and start horticulture that is befitting of Central California?

Did you make it to Central California? They have given up and ripped out quite a few of the almond orchards. The land that is not irrigated is bare earth in places. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Salem and EUG hit 94. Looks like PDX topped out at 90. Ontario roared to 107 this afternoon. Burns hit 102, has to be close to a record. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For the WA posters on inversion watch... the 18Z ECMWF shows good clearing in the early afternoon the next 2 days like previous runs.     But also shows the clouds well inland of the coast all day.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-5702400 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-5788800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like Burns broke their record high by 5 degrees, previous record was 97 in 1968. 

Record high at Boise today too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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