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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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The EPS has us in a weak trough at least 3/4 of the time over the next half month.  I think people are getting carried away with this scorching July thing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I actually predicted a warm spell in early June followed by mid-month troughing, but thanks for playing.

You want to challenge me to a forecast contest? Alright, lets extend it through September and I’ll do it.

No... I am not making any predictions about the second half of July or August or September.   It could be cool and wet... I have no idea.   We will probably be due for that by August.   I can only see what is coming the next 15 days.    And you have been telling me for 3 weeks that warm ensemble means actually indicate its going to be cold and yet its been warmer than normal every day since mid June with no end in sight.  

So... lets make a prediction about the next 15 days.   And see who can read an ensemble mean better.  😄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The EPS has us in a weak trough at least 3/4 of the time over the next half month.  I think people are getting carried away with this scorching July thing.

For the record... I am not saying scorching heat.   I don't see that right now.   I just think its going to be warmer than normal.    Like this weekend which will also be under a weak trough.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The EPS has us in a weak trough at least 3/4 of the time over the next half month.  I think people are getting carried away with this scorching July thing.

I don’t think it will be scorching but will be warmer than normal. June was extremely dynamic and I highly doubt we’ll see a repeat of that 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It was one of the coldest on record west of the cascades. Had several freezing low temperatures even here near the sound. 

But I thought it never got cold here anymore!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All the models are in basic agreement through next week.    That is pretty meaningful.  

Here is the 12Z EPS at day 10... same pattern. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5983200.png

Differences before then, though.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Differences before then, though.

Very little difference.   The ECMWF is most bullish on the ULL mid week and it still shows mid 70s and sun on that day.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... I am not making any predictions about the second half of July or August or September.   It could be cool and wet... I have no idea.   We will probably be due for that by August.   I can only see what is coming the next 15 days.    And you have been telling me for 3 weeks that warm ensemble means actually indicate its going to be cold and yet its been warmer than normal every day since mid June with no end in sight.  

So... lets make a prediction about the next 15 days.   And see who can read an ensemble mean better.  😄

Even if I had said that (I didn’t), 3 weeks ago was early June, which was cool/troughy.

Doesn’t exactly fit your manufactured narrative.

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Eventually Phil’s trough will get here. It has to at some point. 

We have had troughs at times over the past few months.  The models have been showing sky high heights over the NE Pacific for quite some time which would normally force a trough over us.  A certain amount of bad luck has been involved in the overall outcome here.

  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Eventually Phil’s trough will get here. It has to at some point. 

Exactly... never stop predicting it and then when it eventually happens you can say you predicted it all along.    😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Even if I had said that (I didn’t), 3 weeks ago was early June, which was cool/troughy.

Doesn’t exactly fit your manufactured narrative.

Yeah... its not manufactured.   Other people are saying the same thing.   You keep telling us about troughing coming and its been warm ever since.   And it did start around before mid-month when we were looking towards the end of June.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I don’t think it will be scorching but will be warmer than normal. June was extremely dynamic and I highly doubt we’ll see a repeat of that 

Might be warmer than normal.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Might be warmer than normal.

Hey... welcome aboard!   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

Phil…. Tim…. May I suggest a room? It’s only first day of July and y’all at it already. 🤣

I kind of get it.  I'm getting pretty grouchy over the way have unfolded so far myself.  So far most of the breaks have gone against us this summer.  That could change at any time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

2019 was a dry and cold fall…November was normal but September and October were below normal. Was a very memorable fall because of the vibrant tree colors…some record cold low temps and many amazing sunrises/sunsets here. Not to mention some great thunderstorms in September and October. 

Nov 2019 had lots of potential to be a cold one. Highs in the 60's first half, but at the end I had 9 lows below 20, an arctic blast in the last 5 days of the month, and the biggest snow event around Thanksgiving since 2010. Still ended warm and dry. Remember the "bomb cyclone" in southern Oregon that month? Numbers sometimes just suck, but it is what it is. The coldest Black Friday in many years.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Exactly... never stop predicting it and then when it eventually happens you can say you predicted it all along.    😀

Funny, I seem to recall March, April, May, and (most of) June being average to slightly cooler than average.

It’s not like there hasn’t been plenty of troughing this year. Definitely not a 2015 pattern.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its not manufactured.   Other people are saying the same thing.   You keep telling us about troughing coming and its been warm ever since.   And it did start around before mid-month when we were looking towards the end of June.  

All of your narratives are manufactured.

It’s been warm for 10 days. That’s crazy! 😱 So easy to get caught up in the moment, isn’t it?

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of get it.  I'm getting pretty grouchy over the way have unfolded so far myself.  So far most of the breaks have gone against us this summer.  That could change at any time.

If we can somehow get the 4CH to chill a little perhaps we can get that trough to drop down further. But I’m not counting as it as everything just seems to go against us for sure.

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

If we can somehow get the 4CH to chill a little perhaps we can get that trough to drop down further. But I’m not counting as it as everything just seems to go against us for sure.

It's summer. Get out and enjoy the warm sunshine. We get plenty of troughing. October will be here before we all know it.

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About 3 weeks ago... hmmmmm.    Greatest heat wave of all time is very similar to significant troughing.  😀

 

phil4.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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31 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Oct 2019 was decently cold at my place, I forget how that one ranked west of the mountains though.

-3.3 departures from normal Mean is pretty rare now for any time of the year.

3rd coldest October on record for Salem. 2019 was a low key decent weather year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

It's summer. Get out and enjoy the warm sunshine. We get plenty of troughing. October will be here before we all know it.

I’ve enjoyed plenty of sunshine so far  and even spent times outdoors in the rain. Love it.  However, just because it’s summer it doesn’t hurt to have a trough drop now and again. 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

About 3 weeks ago... hmmmmm.    Greatest heat wave all time is similar to significant troughing.  😀

phil3.png

Bad call for sure! But if we’re being fair, this heatwave would have been very difficult (if not impossible?) to predict at long ranges because it was a trapped high wavenumber pattern through which the high amplitude RWB arose. That can unfold in so many different ways it’s mind boggling.

Tweak things ever so slightly and it might not have happened at all, or it could have been the inverse with top-tier cold! A lot of statistical flukes came together at precisely the right time to buck climo and produce an outrageous solution.

But you can’t look at this, and then somehow expect to follow years like 2015, which were so vastly different in so many ways.

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February 2019 was really something.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I’ve enjoyed plenty of sunshine so far  and even spent times outdoors in the rain. Love it.  However, just because it’s summer it doesn’t hurt to have a trough drop now and again. 

Fair enough

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2019 was really something.

Top 3 coolest and snowiest in southern Oregon. Depth was hard to maintain so locals won't remember the month because there wasn't 33" inches on the ground. More like 9.

Just now, Snowdrift said:

Coldest on record in Spokane.

Didn't Spokane also have the most October snow in 1 day and for the month?

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

All of your narratives are manufactured.

It’s been warm for 10 days. That’s crazy! 😱 So easy to get caught up in the moment, isn’t it?

I’m pretty sure you predicted troughing after the solstice and we ended up with one of the most anomalous heat waves in the history of the planet.  It was a big miss for you just own it. 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What the NWS needs to remember is that only the past decade matters.

This. 
which is why I said in my previous post from this tweet that base on how things have been trending (past 5-10 years?) I think that it’ll end up being warmer than not. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Bad call for sure! But if we’re being fair, this heatwave would have been very difficult (if not impossible?) to predict at long ranges because it was a trapped high wavenumber pattern through which the high amplitude RWB arose.

Tweak things ever so slightly and it might not have happened at all, or it could have been the inverse with top-tier cold! A lot of statistical flukes came together at precisely the right time to buck climo and produce an outrageous solution.

But you can’t look at this, and then somehow expect to follow years like 2015, which were so vastly different in so many ways.

I never said we were going to follow 2015.   I did say it has felt like 2015 recently with consistent warmth and heat.   And it has.

Point is... you were arguing with me back then saying I was reading the 850mb mean wrong and warm is actually cold because of spread.   A few warm members were skewing the mean.   I said when the mean is warm for 15 days... its probably going to be warm.   And it was.    And I am saying it again now.   

Maybe the second half of July we will be colder than normal.  I have no idea.  If the ensembles start showing that then I will believe it.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Top 3 coolest and snowiest in southern Oregon. Depth was hard to maintain so locals won't remember the month because there wasn't 33" inches on the ground. More like 9.

Didn't Spokane also have the most October snow in 1 day and for the month?

It was the snowiest October. Last October had the largest 1 day snowstorm. 7 inches was reported at the airport on the 23rd.

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I didn't appreciate February 2019 in the moment and regret that now. We didn't have one signature event here like Seattle or Eugene did. Just 18 days with 1"+ of snow, good for 52.2" total. Might be awhile before we see something like that again. 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2019 was really something.

All of 2019 was pretty great. Epic February/early March with an anomalous switch from well below normal to well above normal mid month. Had quite a bit of rain up here in July-September with lots of thunderstorms. Only year of the last few with no wildfire smoke. Fall was dry cold and beautiful took some stunning photos that year…and a historic AR event in December. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

It was the snowiest October. Last October had the largest 1 day snowstorm. 7 inches was reported at the airport on the 23rd.

That was a nice blast of cold air. I was in NW Arkansas around that time and took my kids to the pumpkin patch with a raging north wind and afternoon temps in the upper 30s. 

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I never said we were going to follow 2015.   I did say it has felt like 2015 recently with consistent warmth and heat.   And it has.

Point is... you were arguing with me back then saying I was reading the 850mb mean wrong and warm is actually cold because of spread.   A few warm members were skewing the mean.   I said when the mean is warm for 15 days... its probably going to be warm.   And it was.    And I am saying it again now.   

Maybe the second half of July we will be colder than normal.  I have no idea.  If the ensembles start showing that then I will believe it.

I don't really see it. There was a 2 week troughy period last month, nothing like that in June 2015. The warmth that month, extending well into July, was much more sustained.

There was basically a week of really warm to very hot temps in June 2021. Otherwise, the month was fairly normal with abundant rainfall...far cry from 2015.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

All of 2019 was pretty great. Epic February/early March with an anomalous switch from well below normal to well above normal mid month. Had quite a bit of rain up here in July-September with lots of thunderstorms. Only year of the last few with no wildfire smoke. Fall was dry cold and beautiful took some stunning photos that year…and a historic AR event in December. 

The thunderstorm outbreak in E. Oregon in early August 2019 was pretty prolific. They had tons of rain too and it essentially ended fire season. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I don't really see it. There was a 2 week troughy period last month, nothing like that in June 2015. The warmth that month, extending well into July, was much more sustained.

There was basically a week of really warm to very hot temps in June 2021. Otherwise, the month was fairly normal with abundant rainfall...far cry from 2015.

PDX had 9 90+ days... They weren't all at the end of the month. At Salem the first half of June 2021 was only 0.7F cooler than the first half of June 2015. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

I don't really see it. There was a 2 week troughy period last month, nothing like that in June 2015. The warmth that month, extending well into July, was much more sustained.

There was basically a week of really warm to very hot temps in June 2021. Otherwise, the month was fairly normal with abundant rainfall...far cry from 2015.

Yes... the first half of June was much different.   Since the middle of the month... its been warm and the models keep showing warm.   That has reminded me of 2015.     But a feeling is also based on what a person is experiencing and you have not been experiencing our weather.   Its totally subjective.   And not a forecast.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was a nice blast of cold air. I was in NW Arkansas around that time and took my kids to the pumpkin patch with a raging north wind and afternoon temps in the upper 30s. 

Cold air can just dig through the center of the country.

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25 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Nov 2019 had lots of potential to be a cold one. Highs in the 60's first half, but at the end I had 9 lows below 20, an arctic blast in the last 5 days of the month, and the biggest snow event around Thanksgiving since 2010. Still ended warm and dry. Remember the "bomb cyclone" in southern Oregon that month? Numbers sometimes just suck, but it is what it is. The coldest Black Friday in many years.

IMG_1631 (2576 x 1932).jpg

Fall 2019 was really something here. Convective…anomalous cold at times with some early season cascades snow and beautiful tree colors. 

1A93314E-7E01-4F99-A936-D2B84A2E3C8F.jpeg

FA676CE7-5075-46A8-AA41-C97974C1B3ED.png

E4C074DD-7168-4744-9878-B53AAF8D24DE.jpeg

66230A4B-B1CC-4CCC-9290-DA5DC70268D3.jpeg

FE902C35-C757-43FC-9B96-D8086ECFD44D.jpeg

21F69078-2F4D-4C85-AC16-49E61DE14DD6.jpeg

B23525DF-129A-4931-879D-2C08C94E83D3.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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