July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The first 1/2 of July is going to end up pretty warm.  That mid month trough is still a good week away on the models. 

Ok.

[Geos]

Chillly out there. Down to 56 with some clouds passing by. Looks like the marine layer is snaking its way through the Strait of Juan de Fuca at least tonight.

 

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Now that’s a beautiful trough.

And I’ll be in GA..also under blue.

 

 

Loaded gun in Canada! 

[Meatyorologist]

Today will be one minute and twenty one seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 

[Tyler Mode]

49 for a low before the low clouds developed. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overcast and 57°F. Got down to 52 before the clouds rolled in. Coolest temperature since the Big Bake.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Still predicting a #foreverwarm July?

I went out of my way to specifically say I had no idea what would happen during the second half of July... but that the first half was looking warmer than normal.    Said it like 4 or 5 times just so you understood that I was not making a prediction about the second half of the month.    And yet somehow I predicted a forever warm July.   

 

[MossMan]

Had a low of 51.

Currently cloudy and 53

[TT-SEA]

It seems like the visible damage on our trees is fading.    I think it is actually being shaken off over time with the wind.    We had a windy period yesterday morning and I was watching brown needles blowing off the hemlock trees.   The burnt leaves on deciduous trees are also falling off.      

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, MossMan said:

Had a low of 51.

Currently cloudy and 53

51 here as well. Coolest in at least a couple weeks.  The sun is shining here this morning, however. No marine layer as of yet 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some marine layer drizzle out there this morning. Very nice. 

[Omegaraptor]

37 in Sunriver this morning. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 51…coldest low temp since mid June. 

[TacomaWaWx]

7 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

The first 1/2 of July is going to end up pretty warm.  That mid month trough is still a good week away on the models. 

Pretty much my thoughts on it as well 

[TacomaWaWx]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems like the visible damage on our trees is fading.    I think it is actually being shaken off over time with the wind.    We had a windy period yesterday morning and I was watching brown needles blowing off the hemlock trees.   The burnt leaves on deciduous trees are also falling off.      

Hopefully Mother Nature can just shake it off and move on…but if extreme heatwaves do somehow become more common the vegetation and trees could be in trouble the next few decades. 

[snow_wizard]

You can tell the marine layer is really deep this morning when looking at the way it has filled the mountain valleys.  It feels delightful out there this morning!

This is the most impressive morning low cloud regime we've seen in years.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hopefully Mother Nature can just shake it off and move on…but if extreme heatwaves do somehow become more common the vegetation and trees could be in trouble the next few decades. 

I'll be going through Hobart again in a few days.  I'll be interested to see if that has gotten better or not.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You can tell the marine layer is really deep this morning when looking at the way it has filled the mountain valleys.  It feels delightful out there this morning!

This is the most impressive morning low cloud regime we've seen in years.

Its not really deep... its actually pretty thin.   But the ECMWF does show the clouds hanging around until almost noon now.

[TT-SEA]

And side note... the mid June through mid July period in 2019 was marine layer on steroids for the EPSL.    This is definitely less than that period.   Most days in that period in 2019 never cleared out at all here.   We have only had one day like that in this run... which was last Thursday.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And side note... the mid June through mid July period in 2019 was marine layer on steroids for the EPSL.    This is definitely less than that period.   Most days in that period in 2019 never cleared out at all here.   We have only had one day like that in this run... which was last Thursday.  

That was a pleasant time in our lives. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bootleg Fire is up to 11,000 acres!

[Cloud]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You can tell the marine layer is really deep this morning when looking at the way it has filled the mountain valleys.  It feels delightful out there this morning!

This is the most impressive morning low cloud regime we've seen in years.

Guess depends on locations but not for here… it’s actually quite thinner and sunlight is already filtered through. It was a lot deeper at this time yesterday. 

It’s really nice to have a cool morning though, got down as low as 54F

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 53 this morning which amazingly is the lowest since June 19th.  I like the direction things have been going.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Guess depends on locations but not for here… it’s actually quite thinner and sunlight is already filtered through. It was a lot deeper at this time yesterday. 

It’s really nice to have a cool morning though, got down as low as 54F

Down here it was more mixed yesterday.  Today it's just flat gray.

[BLI snowman]

Oh Jim....

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Bootleg Fire is up to 11,000 acres!

Looks pretty bad on the visible sat pic.  I wonder if that was lightning caused.  At any rate we had better get some rain or late summer is going to be bad in spite of how cool it may get.  One thing about the massive surface high over the NE Pacific is it's not conducive to rain.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks pretty bad on the visible sat pic.  I wonder if that was lightning caused.  At any rate we had better get some rain or late summer is going to be bad in spite of how cool it may get.  One thing about the massive surface high over the NE Pacific is it's not conducive to rain.

This frigid cold July will not be able to save us.   

[Timmy]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks pretty bad on the visible sat pic.  I wonder if that was lightning caused.  At any rate we had better get some rain or late summer is going to be bad in spite of how cool it may get.  One thing about the massive surface high over the NE Pacific is it's not conducive to rain.

Do you ever wonder how many of these fires are actually human caused, yet we never find out who did it. And someone is out there knowing full well it’s their fault and never tells a soul?

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems like the visible damage on our trees is fading.    I think it is actually being shaken off over time with the wind.    We had a windy period yesterday morning and I was watching brown needles blowing off the hemlock trees.   The burnt leaves on deciduous trees are also falling off.      

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

You can tell the marine layer is really deep this morning when looking at the way it has filled the mountain valleys.  It feels delightful out there this morning!

This is the most impressive morning low cloud regime we've seen in years.

Already seeing patches of blue here. The clouds will not last much longer.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Do you ever wonder how many of these fires are actually human caused, yet we never find out who did it. And someone is out there knowing full well it’s their fault and never tells a soul?

Not all human-caused fires are deliberately set, or even have causers that are aware of their responsibility.

Consider someone towing a trailer whose safety chain drags and makes a spark that touches off a wildfire. By the time the fire hits the news, he is many miles away, and has no idea that it was his trailer’s chain that sparked the fire.

[Timmy]

19 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not all human-caused fires are deliberately set, or even have causers that are aware of their responsibility.

Consider someone towing a trailer whose safety chain drags and makes a spark that touches off a wildfire. By the time the fire hits the news, he is many miles away, and has no idea that it was his trailer’s chain that sparked the fire.

Sure, there have got to be some that know, or at least suspect, “did I do that”.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is just a bit different than previous runs with that deep trough for later next week.

00Z run on top and new 12Z run on the bottom...

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Got down to 53, got the house down to 60, slept like a baby last night!  Down to my last 2 days of "practicing for retirement" before starting a new job on Monday.  It's been a long 13 1/2 months of furlough/being laid off.

[Phil]

 

[Phil]

Check out this near-term correction (to less cut-off of the core of the Alaskan Low) on the GFS.

This bias in the GFS is astounding. Simply for its persistence. Not even state dependent..it manifests almost every run.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Wasn’t last year’s dry thunderstorm outbreak caused by tropical storm remnants?

Weenie post, but pretty hard to deny the question this summer is really not “if”, but “when”. The entire West Coast especially below 44°N is a ticking time bomb.

[TacomaWaWx]

22 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Sure, there have got to be some that know, or at least suspect, “did I do that”.  

Oh I’m sure it’s definitely happened. Someone has a campfire and they don’t put it out all the way…next day there’s a big fire in the area and they’re like “oh sh*t was that me?” And never say a word. 

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Oh I’m sure it’s definitely happened. Someone has a campfire and they don’t put it out all the way…next day there’s a big fire in the area and they’re like “oh sh*t was that me?” And never say a word. 

Just read through the thirtymile fire investigation yesterday....someone out there def knows that was probably them.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

You can tell the marine layer is really deep this morning when looking at the way it has filled the mountain valleys.  It feels delightful out there this morning!

This is the most impressive morning low cloud regime we've seen in years.

Like tim said…just 2 years ago in 2019 there was a lot more marine layer days atleast up here in western WA. It’s been nice to see…but it’s not exactly exceptional. Probably just seems that way since there’s been much less marine layer days overall the last 8 or so years.