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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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The ECMWF and the HRRR bring the low clouds up to the Covington and Maple Valley area by morning but they aren't able to get over our ridge here.   ECMWF shows the low clouds hanging around down there until maybe 11 a.m. or noon.

 

hrrr-washington-total_cloud-5929200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Riding from Monmouth to Springfield, into the smoky sky hits different.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GFS looking much improved. :D

A couple marine layer days... but mainly focused in the central Sound with sun to the north and south and then totally sunny again by Saturday.   Exactly what the ECMWF has been showing.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Settling in down here in Saint Simons, GA.

Literally the exact same weather as back home, no discernible difference at all. 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A couple marine layer days... but mainly focused in the central Sound with sun to the north and south and then totally sunny again by Saturday.   Exactly what the ECMWF has been showing.  

Yeah looks like the lower 500mb heights actually help mix out the marine layer on this run. Lapse rates steeper. Cooler than average at the top of the boundary layer still, but maybe warmer at the surface than would otherwise be the case.

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Very decent GFS run.  The phasing between the eastern GOA ULL and the PV over NW Canada appears to back on again around day 5.  That creates a more vigorous trough which digs in more effectively.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GFS looking much improved. :D

I'm pretty happy with it.  At the very least the doom and gloom proclamations about the rest of this summer were apparently overblown.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Brisk NW winds have returned to the coast thus resuming the cold upwelling and cool temps out there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Fantastic evening! Was at the winery down the road from us for the Friday evening live music and the place was hopping! The weather was perfect! Topped off by a quiet evening in the back yard! 
77/53 on the day. Currently 57. 
Going to try and make it to the lake tomorrow for some 35yr old boating fun! 

A3335EAA-B996-4572-899D-B17008774AD2.jpeg

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There's actually a somewhat realistic chance SEA won't hit or exceed 85 over the next 15 days.  A couple in there could do it, but it's iffy.  Sanity has returned.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Just realized we have .18 of precip recorded in the bucket this month so far!!

I have a big fat zero.  I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if a number of places don't have a drop this month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Fantastic evening! Was at the winery down the road from us for the Friday evening live music and the place was hopping! The weather was perfect! Topped off by a quiet evening in the back yard! 
77/53 on the day. Currently 57. 
Going to try and make it to the lake tomorrow for some 35yr old boating fun! 

A3335EAA-B996-4572-899D-B17008774AD2.jpeg

So nice to have things getting back to normal after COVID.  The last year will be just a bad memory soon enough.  It's incredible how fast your area cools off early in the evening compared to here.  Still 70 here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Fantastic evening! Was at the winery down the road from us for the Friday evening live music and the place was hopping! The weather was perfect! Topped off by a quiet evening in the back yard! 
77/53 on the day. Currently 57. 
Going to try and make it to the lake tomorrow for some 35yr old boating fun! 

A3335EAA-B996-4572-899D-B17008774AD2.jpeg

We have talked about stopping at that winery several times on the drive to Bellingham... one of these times.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Where did Tim go?

I just posted about the GFS less than an hour ago and you responded.   😃

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We have talked about stopping at that winery several times on the drive to Bellingham... one of these times.  

You definitely should! They now have food on top of great wine and a fantastic low key atmosphere! Though I might be a bit bias since it’s 4 minutes from my house! 😀 

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Haniger!!!

Stadium was electric after that slam... nice to see.

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Haniger!!!

Mitch? Guess I should start following them again! And the Seahawks first pre season game is just weeks away…This is like Jesse’s worse nightmare!! And it’s not long until Kraken Mania begins!!! 😀 

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11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Mitch? Guess I should start following them again! And the Seahawks first pre season game is just weeks away…This is like Jesse’s worse nightmare!! And it’s not long until Kraken Mania begins!!! 😀 

We went in on Kraken season tickets with a group.  I intentionally steered clear of any December games as I suspect roads will frequently be impassable.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I'm keeping track of the number of 90+ readings in Spokane and Spokane Valley since June 1st. Through 7/8 Spokane has recorded 18 readings of 90+. Spokane Valley has recorded 22 90+ readings. The top link is Spokane Valley, and the bottom link is Spokane.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?wfo=otx&p=temperature&year=2021&stn=KSFF

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?wfo=otx&p=temperature&year=2021&stn=KGEG

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty happy with it.  At the very least the doom and gloom proclamations about the rest of this summer were apparently overblown.

It’s July freaking 9th.

How would you feel if someone was saying the calls for a cold rest of the winter were overblown on January 9th, following an all time record cold outbreak in late December and a solidly colder than average January to date with nothing but near to below average weather on the horizon.

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

It’s July freaking 9th.

How would you feel if someone was saying the calls for a cold rest of the winter were overblown on January 9th, following an all time record cold outbreak in late December and a solidly colder than average January to date with nothing but near to below average weather on the horizon.

The euro cloud maps show that there won’t be any fake cold and most people like a warmer January. Time to stick a fork in it because if the next couple weeks ain’t cold then winter is done.

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4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=vef&sid=DEVC1&num=72&raw=0

Death Valley has hit 130. Didn’t expect that today.

Automated reading obviously, so this one will also require verification. However apparently last year’s was 129.9 on the dot, so this could break the reliable world record.

How in the f**k is it possible for it to be at 106F in what seemingly the coolest part of the morning? Christ that’s terrifying! 

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5 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=vef&sid=DEVC1&num=72&raw=0

Death Valley has hit 130. Didn’t expect that today.

Automated reading obviously, so this one will also require verification. However apparently last year’s was 129.9 on the dot, so this could break the reliable world record.

I'm glad I don't live there.👹🔥

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6 hours ago, iFred said:

The euro cloud maps show that there won’t be any fake cold and most people like a warmer January. Time to stick a fork in it because if the next couple weeks ain’t cold then winter is done.

Winter does not even begin until February lately.  No forks allowed before St Patty's Day!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wound up with a 79/53 spread in Tacoma yesterday…low of 56 this morning. 
 Looks pretty smoky over in Idaho…fires must’ve blown up even more than last night. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

F9DD8D06-6415-491F-9CFD-10F3EC636985.jpeg

Sure hope we stay with westerly onshore flow.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure hope we stay with westerly onshore flow.

We should be good atleast for another week or so. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Bootleg Fire up to 77k acres

I was going to guess last night it was 60k or so 77k is a pretty big fire. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Low clouds did not make it as far inland up here as the ECMWF was showing last night.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That’s one heck of a CCKW. Transits the Atlantic then back into the W-IO during the 3rd week of July.

Second IO pulse would follow in early August. If this is accurate, then it’s almost three weeks later/slower than I thought just a month ago. Ugly, ugly miss on my part. 😳 

 

E0A96107-4A11-4C3E-B47F-AED9EAD75C00.png

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s one heck of a CCKW. Transits the Atlantic then back into the W-IO during the 3rd week of July.

Second IO pulse would follow in early August. If this is accurate, then it’s almost three weeks later/slower than I thought just a month ago. Ugly, ugly miss on my part. 😳 

 

E0A96107-4A11-4C3E-B47F-AED9EAD75C00.png

Translate for us... does this mean a continuation of cold and troughy for the rest of the summer now?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty happy with it.  At the very least the doom and gloom proclamations about the rest of this summer were apparently overblown.

The hottestsummereva crowd has made it clear they're going down with the ship.

It was a historic heatwave. Doesn't define a whole summer, though.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We should be good atleast for another week or so. 

In 2017... we made it all the way through July with steady onshore flow and no smoke.  

Then the pattern amplified at the start of August and smoke poured in from north and east.    

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The hottestsummereva crowd has made it clear they're going down with the ship.

It was a historic heatwave. Doesn't define a whole summer, though.

I have never been in the hottest summer ever crowd... but it is probably important to recognize the north/south gradient in temperature so far.    South of Portand... the heat has been much more consistent.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have never been in the hottest summer ever crowd... but it is probably important to recognize the north/south gradient in temperature so far.    South of Portand... the heat has been much more consistent.

Of course. But then you have the Andrews of the world making proclamations about the summer that don't apply further north.

But he always has been Mr. My Location, so no shocker there.

A forum for the end of the world.

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