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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Good lord. 

Smoke plume from the fast-growing Bootleg Fire towers over the town of Bly

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The lack of marine influence in the Willamette Valley where it's always a little harder to come by in midsummer is a testament to the warmth of the ongoing pattern.

Been warm here as well but there's a noticeable latitudinal gradient most days, even sharper than normal. Today has hit 92 in Salem, 89 in Aurora, 87 in Portland, 86 in Vancouver, and 77 in Kelso so far.

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Back on the westside! Currently at the Santiam River rest area eating. Gotta say, the Cascades are an awesome mountain range regardless of which side of them you’re on.

Driving from Sunriver to Bend it feels weird going 70 until you reach the Bend city limit and then it slows down to 45. Feels like you’re crawling. lol

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Looks like SEA will fail to reach 80.   I can't predict SEA temps any more.

We were at Three Forks park on the river this afternoon and it felt very warm... high in North Bend was 83.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the low clouds are being scoured out from north to south along the WA coast and over the ocean.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW Salem hasn't had a below average daily departure since June 15th. 

Flatiron says that's pretty much normal, especially if you pretend the greatest heatwave on record doesn't count. 

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2 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Flatiron says that's pretty much normal, especially if you pretend the greatest heatwave on record doesn't count. 

The temp anomaly map tim posted pretty much says it all. One 10 day stretch of below average temps in early June doesn’t mean much compared to how warm it’s been otherwise. It wasn’t even as below normal down there as it was around seattle. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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99/50 today. 1 short of another record of 100 in 1898.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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It rained .50 here on this day in 2019... and also rained last year on this day.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It rained .50 here on this day in 2019... and also rained last year on this day.

When compared to recent summers, 2019 was much cooler. Summer showed up late and left early that year.

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15 minutes ago, sand dune said:

2019 was much cooler. Summer showed up late and left early that year.

The fact that anyone would say this about what was still a solidly warm summer by all measures says a lot about the warped perspective on here.

5EDCA742-F172-405A-B826-0176DA3DB1B7.png.70106ae098b4ee8d75c6a4b0bbd341ae.png

 

 

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Read that California is dispatching teams to help on the Bootleg Fire as it is now threatening critical powerlines that bring power to Northern California. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The fact that anyone would say this about what was still a solidly warm summer by all measures says a lot about the warped perspective on here.

5EDCA742-F172-405A-B826-0176DA3DB1B7.png.70106ae098b4ee8d75c6a4b0bbd341ae.png

 

 

Salem hit 97 on June 12th (Supposedly normal), and 100 on August 27th. Seems like a major early and late heatwave. Overall though it was warm, it seemed cool to many considering our 2013-present climate regime. Despite being a fairly warm summer by long term historical standards, Salem only had 10 90+ highs, despite running significant + departures in May, June, and August. July was slightly above normal, September slightly below. By comparison this was the 17th 90+ max at SLE so far this summer. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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May not be warped if the climate is really changing.  

Just a reminder we are in a double dip Nina at a solar minimum and pulling off this warm summer.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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At this point in 2015 Salem had 16 90+ highs. This year they have 17. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The fact that anyone would say this about what was still a solidly warm summer by all measures says a lot about the warped perspective on here.

5EDCA742-F172-405A-B826-0176DA3DB1B7.png.70106ae098b4ee8d75c6a4b0bbd341ae.png

 

 

Notice the yellow ranges from 0 to +1. Looks like half of the PNW avoided a statistically "warm" summer by most standards, plus 10% or so in the green.

Was a nice bonus too that we had no real heatwaves at all and very little of a fire season. The entirety of Aug/Sep without smoke down here.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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I know this little statistic focuses on just here; but already had 11 highs hotter than 2019's max at KLMT (94). 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The fact that anyone would say this about what was still a solidly warm summer by all measures says a lot about the warped perspective on here.

5EDCA742-F172-405A-B826-0176DA3DB1B7.png.70106ae098b4ee8d75c6a4b0bbd341ae.png

 

 

Just to add on to this - It's been a full decade at this point since we've had an actual cool summer, and even that was nothing special by pre 21st century standards (especially if you include the blowtorch September). Even an average summer by 20th century standards would feel pretty remarkable at this point.

Another stat that's amazing to me is that of the last 17 (soon to be 18) July/Augusts at PDX, only July 2016 had an average high below 80. The 1971-2000 average highs were 79.3 for July and 79.7 for August.

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On 7/9/2021 at 3:22 PM, Front Ranger said:

Looks like Vegas might break their all-time high temp today.

And if not today, almost certainly tomorrow.

You’re having a rough weekend…😟

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Came off the 99 realllly quickly. 89 with 20-25 north winds.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Ok - someone give me the TLDR on the whole solar minimum thing, please. What effect is that supposed to (potentially) have?

Well we are past it now... so you already know.

 

solar cycle.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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74/51 on the day. Currently 55.

my grass has finally started to slow its growth rate, but still very green for not watering it at all this season. I have only been spot watering the plants/shrubs but not the grass. 

B6D0E42D-F43B-49E4-8115-4A4C805A561E.jpeg

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Trough looks healthy on the 000z!

Yep... this one might get stronger as it gets closer.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, MossMan said:

74/51 on the day. Currently 55.

my grass has finally started to slow its growth rate, but still very green for not watering it at all this season. I have only been spot watering the plants/shrubs but not the grass. 

B6D0E42D-F43B-49E4-8115-4A4C805A561E.jpeg

55??

Is that the wind down through the Strait?   That is crazy.   83 for a high here and its still 70.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yep it’s quite chilly out!! 

EA298E02-6DB6-4081-8124-263A47D30D82.jpeg

I believe you... that is just crazy how fast it gets cold there.   It has to be the west wind through Strait.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Trough looks healthy on the 000z!

Thing of beauty. Nowhere else in the CONUS can match the bliss that is a PNW summer trough.

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well we are past it now... so you already know.

 

solar cycle.png
 

yes…this chart was already posted. Are you saying I should take our exact weather patterns over the last 10 years and say - this is what the solar max/min cycle is supposed to look like?

or just tell me to look it up on my own and that’s fine too

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

yes…this chart was already posted. Are you saying I should take our exact weather patterns over the last 10 years and say - this is what the solar max/min cycle is supposed to look like?

or just tell me to look it up on my own and that’s fine too

I don't think the effects on weather are really known... but supposedly a deep solar minimum can trigger global cooling.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Unfortunately this is going to end up being just a complete monster. Probably going to be a megafire, that's a smoke signature that rivals one of the firestorms last September. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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