July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

52/70˚F for the day. Now 68.

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

Given what happened last month, I’d think anyone capable of empathy would be hoping for cool/wet weather.

I would like some rain.  Not that it matters.   

And this is another stupid preference related comment.  

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would like some rain.  Not that it matters.   

And this is another stupid preference related comment.  

I live in a humid continental climate with DRY summers. It can rain in October. Preferences mean nothing. Nature does what she wants.

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Only caveat here…we have descending easterly shear (oncoming -QBO) which is not necessarily favorable for a stout NPAC High (speaking statistically only..each year is unique).

Still, Niña/-QBO winters tend to be zonal in the absence of a source for wave driving/stratospheric disruption. Though the years which do manage profuse wave driving are often top notch for mobile polar high production and cold loading.

Sooooo..... February 2021?

IIRC the LR seasonal EPS was spitting out some weaker solutions for the SPV this coming winter. One of the big blunders of this most recent season was how the PV at all sensible layers of the atmosphere was confined and strong. The only reason it ended the way it did was because of that SSW event in mid January.

I like our chances this upcoming winter, and believe me when I say I am counting the days, just like many on this forum.

[GHweatherChris]

Abnormally high amount of hypocrisy in here today.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sooooo..... February 2021?

IIRC the LR seasonal EPS was spitting out some weaker solutions for the SPV this coming winter. One of the big blunders of this most recent season was how the PV at all sensible layers of the atmosphere was confined and strong. The only reason it ended the way it did was because of that SSW event in mid January.

I like our chances this upcoming winter, and believe me when I say I am counting the days, just like many on this forum.

I’m already seeing visions of massive ensemble improvement dancing in my head.

[Timmy Supercell]

91/44.

The next 5 days will no doubt take my stretch to over 20 highs 90+.

[Phil]

TRADES.

 

[MossMan]

72/51

Currently 65 and has clouded up again.  

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

72/51

Currently 65 and has clouded up again.  

74/51 here today and clear still. Looks like the clouds spilling over into your area are from the thunderstorms over the north cascades. 

[Geos]

I have been seeing 74° in the Kirkland area. I think that was about it for high temps on the eastside. Another really nice summer day. 

[BLI snowman]

78 here today. Might be the last sub-80 for awhile.

[Omegaraptor]

High of 80 at PDX, ended up not really underperforming at all. 0 departure.

[jakeinthevalley]

4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.2466&lon=-116.817#.YOeIPBZlCEe

Holy crap! NWS has 131°F forecast in Death Valley

Meh. I hit 117.2f in Salem.

Not impressed...

[Front Ranger]

24 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

78 here today. Might be the last sub-80 for awhile.

Probably at least a week.

Which this time of year is not unusual at all.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Probably at least a week.

Which this time of year is not unusual at all.

Shades of '55.

[TT-SEA]

While SEA was -3 on the day... OLM came in perfectly normal at 0.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS does not look like it wants to bring back the late week trough either.   

00Z run yesterday on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for late next week...

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Shades of '55.

Someone on here said that the old saying that summer begins on July 5th would flipped around this year and be completely opposite with summer ending on July 5th.      That is not really working out well.

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z GFS does not look like it wants to bring back the late week trough either.   

00Z run yesterday on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for late next week...

Hilarious no matter how the pattern changes upstream, I end up under a ridge. Always.

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Someone on here said that the old saying that summer begins on July 5th would flipped around this year and be completely opposite with summer ending on July 5th.      That is not really working out well.

I hope this past week has taught you how to properly interpret an ensemble mean. Those warm 850mb temps really translated to the surface.  

I say this because the pattern in the long range is structurally favorable for continued marine intrusion (followed by actual troughing later).

[Phil]

Well, the GGEM improved.

Technically it scores higher than the GFS, so..

 

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

I hope this past week has taught you how to properly interpret an ensemble mean. Those warm 850mb temps really translated to the surface.  

I say this because the pattern in the long range is structurally favorable for continued marine intrusion (followed by actual troughing later).

What?  

First of all... your point was that the mean showed warm 850mb temps but that was skewed by some very warm members and most members were cold.   You literally said that.  Which could be true... but its often not and its used as a rationalization by some when desperate.   Particularly in the winter.

Secondly... this past week has been pretty normal in terms of the marine layer cloud coverage.  The highs out here for the last 7 days have been 79, 84, 82, 77, 84, 76, and 74.   And that averages out to warmer than normal.     A normal marine layer week usually ends up cooler than normal.    SEA has been +1 over the last week including today.   And now the marine influence will be less going forward.

[Deweydog]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

While SEA was -3 on the day... OLM came in perfectly normal at 0.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

First of all... your point was that the mean showed warm 850mb temps but that was skewed by some very warm members and most members were cold.   You literally said that.  Which could be true... but its often not and its used a rationalization by some when desperate.   Particularly in the winter.

That wasn’t my point. At least not my entire point. I would know since it came from my brain.

And the marine influence looks to return in about 6 days (and do so more profusely compared to this week). That 4CH retrogrades very quickly on most guidance.

[TT-SEA]

I will say that I did not account for a stronger marine influence since late last week on a few days and it was cooler than I expected despite being warmer than normal overall.   But Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday were straight up warm.     

 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like this area might have a shot at the upper 40s tonight.  That would feel downright invigorating right now.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That wasn’t my point. At least not my entire point. I would know since it came from my brain.

And the marine influence looks to return in about 6 days. That 4CH retrogrades very quickly.

Maybe... but I don't think you should try and guess at our marine inversions.   They can be very tricky.  

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

That wasn’t my point. At least not my entire point. I would know since it came from my brain.

And the marine influence looks to return in about 6 days (and do so more profusely compared to this week). That 4CH retrogrades very quickly on most guidance.

Yeah...the onshore flow is going to be pretty consistent.  It never really goes away other than becoming more of a NW wind onshore flow.  NW is what brings the really good upwelling along the coast.

BTW...that was a good call on my part talking about the STTs falling along the coast after they spiked a little bit back.  But I'm never right you know.

The second paragraph was not directed at you.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but I don't think you should try and guess at our marine inversions.   They can be very tricky.  

When it shows up at 850mb, that’s usually indicative of some kind of marine influence in the boundary layer.

And I know how to read a sounding. Whether said modeled soundings are accurate is another story.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well, the GGEM improved.

Technically it scores higher than the GFS, so..

 

It's pretty obvious the trough is still on the table.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Some will take this to mean I'm saying we will freeze our our arses off in a week or so.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

And the marine influence looks to return in about 6 days (and do so more profusely compared to this week). That 4CH retrogrades very quickly on most guidance.

You really don't understand.    The best way to get cold days in the summer is with stratiform rain or with a strong inversion and low clouds all day.    Cold 850mb temps can weaken the inversion with more sunshine and we can end up close to normal.

There is absolutely no way you can predict a strong inversion locking in at a week out... but the pattern on the ECMWF and GFS don't show anything like what you are describing after day 6.  

[TT-SEA]

Just for the fun... here is the 12Z ECMWF for next Saturday.    No marine layer at all... not even on the coast.   Not saying its guaranteed to be right.   But the ECMWF is by far the best tool we have for predicting marine layer clouds and it does not show the marine layer increasing "profusely" more than what we had over the last week.   That is just a false statement.

 

 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You really don't understand.    The best way to get cold days in the summer is with stratiform rain or with a strong inversion and low clouds all day.    Cold 850mb temps can weaken the inversion with more sunshine and we can end up close to normal.

There is absolutely no way you can predict a strong inversion locking in at a week out... but the pattern on the ECMWF and GFS don't show anything like what you are describing after day 6.  

Could be. We’ll see.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting to look at the average max for the first 8 days of July.  Only 76.5 degrees.  I don't think many expected anything close to that low when we were looking at that period in late June.  Just sayin.

I hate to have to point this out, but I'm sick of being told I'm crazy.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...the onshore flow is going to be pretty consistent.  It never really goes away other than becoming more of a NW wind onshore flow.  NW is what brings the really good upwelling along the coast.

Are you saying we won't have offshore flow?  Seems pretty obvious.   Onshore flow is basically a permanent feature all summer... even when its warm. 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

TRADES.

 

ENSO SSTs have already been falling for a few days in response to this.  Looking good.

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of interesting to look at the average max for the first 8 days of July.  Only 76.5 degrees.  I don't think many expected anything close to that low when we were looking at that period in late June.  Just sayin.

I hate to have to point this out, but I'm sick of being told I'm crazy.

Dude... you were touting some majestic cold troughs.    For the end of June... for the holiday weekend... for the first week of July and the second week of July.   Absolutely none of that happened.    The marine layer was more substantial than most people anticipated... but that is not why people are calling you out.   

It was funny on Monday night you were talking about all this amazing cold air coming inland from the coast and the next day it was 82 in Seattle.   

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be. We’ll see.

The 12Z EPS actually looked similar late next week... so maybe.   But the models might continue to back off on the troughing as well.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heat builds back in tomorrow. Most locations will be around 90 and many spots west of the Cascades could be seeing 5-6 90+ days in a row. Pretty incredible how sustained the heat has been.