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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Looks like we have some slightly cooler weather coming up followed by a return to 90s around the 20th. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think the effects on weather are really known... but supposedly a deep solar minimum can trigger global cooling.

Sometimes. It depends on very low frequency in-situ systemic boundary conditions.

Same forcing can trigger very different responses from one century to the next, for reasons that may boil down to chance.

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48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like we have some slightly cooler weather coming up followed by a return to 90s around the 20th. 

Then more troughing on the 24th!

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Three troughs hit us on the 0z GFS.  A sight for sore eyes!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Phil said:

Then more troughing on the 24th!

That was a really good run on the GFS.  It's in a very good place at the end of the run too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Notably chillier ensemble mean also.  Above normal temps are done on the 15th according to this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The GFS extracted data shows a good shot at some sub 70 highs later in the month.  Let's hope we can hold onto it this time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sometimes. It depends on very low frequency in-situ systemic boundary conditions.

Same forcing can trigger very different responses from one century to the next, for reasons that may boil down to chance.

So far the theory that deep solar mins can cause an increasingly amplified wave train seems to be verifying.  We'll have to see if this aspect continues or not.

  • Excited 1
  • Downvote 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like the ECMWF is heading in a good direction also.  It appears the trough next week will be favorable for cool temps, but will probably not yield much precip.  Could be a shot at some cool mins with it as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Wow!  Compared to last night's 0z ECMWF the offshore blocking later next week is much more solid and able to deliver a good solid trough.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Judging by the mass number of downvotes this evening it would appear that Jesse has the night shift covered! Down voting dogs in boats, green lush grass, and temps in the 50’s…Interesting. 

Hmmm...try growing a pair.

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00Z ECMWF is sure consistent with the surface details from run to run.     Partly to mostly cloudy days on Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid 70s... and then becoming totally sunny on Saturday and highs again in mid 70s.

One thing to note... there will be no low level inversion on those days so the ECMWF cool bias will likely be back.  It shows 72 in Seattle on Saturday... but I am guessing that is really 75ish.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If you follow the actual center of low pressure... it gets down to the northern tip of Vancouver Island and then just spins itself out.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-toa_brightness-1625961600-1626393600-1626631200-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And Sunday looks spectacular on this run... sunny even on the coast with highs from the mid 70s to low 80s which is just like previous runs.   Its very deceiving because I would think the 500mb pattern could lead to convection.   

 

 

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Monday and Tuesday are the same as Sunday on the 00Z ECMWF.    Looks like a period of spectacular weather from Saturday - Tuesday despite the troughing centered just offshore.  At least on this run.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Considering I have two kids my pair are fully grown and functioning just fine, but thanks for checking in and making sure they are doing okay. 🥰

Has your wife let you have any input into their diets yet? 😱 Or do you just vent by whining/tattling about downvotes on a weather forum.
 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

So far the theory that deep solar mins can cause an increasingly amplified wave train seems to be verifying.  We'll have to see if this aspect continues or not.

I guess in October? We got down to 23F and that was it. Not that amplified.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GEFS is very similar... of course it looks way too warm for the next 3 days.

gfs-ensemble-all-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5983200.png

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7 hours ago, MossMan said:

Judging by the mass number of downvotes this evening it would appear that Jesse has the night shift covered! Down voting dogs in boats, green lush grass, and temps in the 50’s…Interesting. 

Downvotes are his specialty. I think it’s cute. I can’t take getting downvoted (by someone who hands out downvotes like candy) in a weather forum (that practically nobody even knows about) very seriously.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Notably chillier ensemble mean also.  Above normal temps are done on the 15th according to this run.

The 00Z EPS and the latest GEFS don't show this.    Its more like a couple days of cooler than normal 850mb temps and then back to warmer than normal.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sun start to the day here... based on the loop the clouds in South King County formed in place and actually built towards the west rather than coming in the coast.    Looks like less smoke today as well but you can see the northern edge of the massive smoke plume from the Bootleg fire.

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20210711.144117-over=map-bars=.gif

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8 hours ago, MossMan said:

Judging by the mass number of downvotes this evening it would appear that Jesse has the night shift covered! Down voting dogs in boats, green lush grass, and temps in the 50’s…Interesting. 

You still don’t know the system yet do you?

Weenie = good post

Downvote = great post

Puke = post of the day

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24 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I looked at the map for the Bootleg fire. I didn't realize how close it was to the property my parents have. Good thing there isn't anything on it.

Insane how this thing is exponentially growing. Doubling every day. Went from 77k acres yesterday to 143k today. It’s going to be a long fire season.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Insane how this thing is exponentially growing. Doubling every day. Went from 77k acres yesterday to 143k today. It’s going to be a long fire season.

I was just about to post it hit 143k. I was going to guess a bit over 100k. Going to be fun when we eventually get some offshore flow. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun start to the day here... based on the loop the clouds in South King County formed in place and actually built towards the west rather than coming in the coast.    Looks like less smoke today as well but you can see the northern edge of the massive smoke plume from the Bootleg fire.

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20210711.144117-over=map-bars=.gif

Socked in here. Once again, the Issaquah Alps are blocking the stratus.

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2 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Socked in here. Once again, the Issaquah Alps are blocking the stratus.

It's already starting to retreat though.    When its not deep enough to get over the ridge here then it usually burns off much faster elsewhere.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I was just about to post it hit 143k. I was going to guess a bit over 100k. Going to be fun when we eventually get some offshore flow. 

Just goes to show how insanely dry it is in Klamath, Lake, and south Deschutes counties right now. There’s no moisture whatsoever in the soil and vegetation, pine cones are brittle and crunch when you step on them. RH in the single digits or just above every day. Tinderbox.

I didn’t hear a single firework on the night of the Fourth.

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just goes to show how insanely dry it is in Klamath, Lake, and south Deschutes counties right now. There’s no moisture whatsoever in the soil and vegetation, pine cones are brittle and crunch when you step on them. RH in the single digits or just above every day. Tinderbox.

I didn’t hear a single firework on the night of the Fourth.

Southern OR is basically becoming an extension of northern CA in terms of climo. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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12Z GFS looks more like the ECMWF solution.    Less digging into the PNW than it's 00Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Already up to 68 here just after 9 a.m. 

Going to be warm day... at least as warm as yesterday. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I don't even know what to say about that fire in Klamath County. It is just going to burn every tree in that region I suppose. I don't see much hope that area ever recovers. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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SLE actually running a few degrees behind yesterday at this time. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. When was the last time a ~150k acre fire was in southern Oregon?

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