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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Been under a smoke cloud here the last couple of days. Fortunately it's staying aloft so air quality has been okay. Fires in Idaho keep increasing and of course the Bootleg fire is pushing out an incredibly amount of smoke out this way with southwesterly flow.

That Culver fire looks really concerning tonight with a very large and increasing heat signature on IR satellite tonight.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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26 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Been under a smoke cloud here the last couple of days. Fortunately it's staying aloft so air quality has been okay. Fires in Idaho keep increasing and of course the Bootleg fire is pushing out an incredibly amount of smoke out this way with southwesterly flow.

That Culver fire looks really concerning tonight with a very large and increasing heat signature on IR satellite tonight.

Not a big smoke fan. I wonder if this is the new normal.

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35 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Been under a smoke cloud here the last couple of days. Fortunately it's staying aloft so air quality has been okay. Fires in Idaho keep increasing and of course the Bootleg fire is pushing out an incredibly amount of smoke out this way with southwesterly flow.

That Culver fire looks really concerning tonight with a very large and increasing heat signature on IR satellite tonight.

Some elevated smoke has made its way here as well the past couple days.

A forum for the end of the world.

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

6C6EAF1E-30B9-4A1E-9168-163BF4D0C9D7.jpeg

That really puts it in perspective. Smoke is covering about 90% of the Western US at this point and it's only July 11th. Horrible.

Consider yourself lucky for the time being if you live along the coasts.

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

That really puts it in perspective. Smoke is covering about 90% of the Western US at this point and it's only July 11th. Horrible.

Consider yourself lucky for the time being if you live along the coasts.

Yeah I’m enjoying the upper 70s and low 80s with morning clouds and blue skies while I can. Eventually it’ll come our way. Only seems like it’s going to get worse unless we get a miracle rainfall this summer or until the fall troughs start coming. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Some elevated smoke has made its way here as well the past couple days.

Normal result of a predominantly normal PNW summer thus far.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Really good GFS run tonight.  The trends are excellent for this week's trough.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GFS looks nice. 

Looking at a lot of the talk on here you wouldn't know it though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Large building fire in Junction City. Been raging for hours and they’re still struggling to control it before it spot fires into the rest of the neighborhoods.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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44 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Got down to 47° this morning, high was only 72, perfect!!

The 47 is a bit impressive.  Really nice range for you.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking at a lot of the talk on here you wouldn't know it though.

Come live down here and say the same thing. Inhale 500+ ppm for 10 days and say the same thing…

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’m enjoying the upper 70s and low 80s with morning clouds and blue skies while I can. Eventually it’ll come our way. Only seems like it’s going to get worse unless we get a miracle rainfall this summer or until the fall troughs start coming. 

We actually have a trough coming in this week.  That should keep the smoke away from us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Come live down here and say the same thing. Inhale 500+ ppm for 10 days and say the same thing…

That doesn't change the fact below normal temps are coming...your area included.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That doesn't change the fact below normal temps are coming...your area included.

When our city has been destroyed by Sept I’ll be incredibly grateful for the couple days of morning clouds with afternoon sunshine from back in mid July.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We actually have a trough coming in this week.  That should keep the smoke away from us.

Yeah I understand that I wasn’t saying anything is coming now. I’m saying down the road though it’s pretty inevitable to see some smoke unless we get some serious regional rainfall. Very nice to see we’ve got no heatwaves coming but the drought and fire concerns are definitely worrisome.  

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Come live down here and say the same thing. Inhale 500+ ppm for 10 days and say the same thing…

We need appreciable rain. The north/south gradient has absolutely been apparent this year.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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It appears the SSTs along the coast have gotten even colder.  Some places like Westport are sitting in the low 50s right now whereas mid 50s have been the norm for evening temps recently.  Low 50s with brisk NW winds is actually cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I understand that I wasn’t saying anything is coming now. I’m saying down the road though it’s pretty inevitable to see some smoke unless we get some serious regional rainfall. Very nice to see we’ve got no heatwaves coming but the drought and fire concerns are definitely worrisome. 

You’re talking to a brick wall with this stuff unfortunately. I like Jim’s enthusiasm for winter weather but him acting like things aren’t serious for the region is disturbing. Even worse is that he doesn’t seem to know the difference between Salem and Springfield…

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

When our city has been destroyed by Sept I’ll be incredibly grateful for the couple days of morning clouds with afternoon sunshine from back in mid July.

You're being melodramatic.  This is major pattern change coming that could last for a while.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

You’re talking to a brick wall with this stuff unfortunately. I like Jim’s enthusiasm for winter weather but him acting like things aren’t serious for the region is disturbing. Even worse is that he doesn’t seem to know the difference between Salem and Springfield…

Do most people in this area know the difference between the two?  Geeze.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Do most people in this area know the difference between the two?  Geeze.

Jim lives in the Olympia area.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Once again the problem going on here tonight is people are talking about two different things.  I'm talking about what is coming while others are talking about the current situation.  Obviously it has been dry and warmer than normal for a while now.  Nobody is denying that.  Unfortunately the troughs coming up are going to be pretty dry for the most part, but it will be cool.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Even the insane warm biased GFS has a high in the 60s later this week in SEA.  Going to be nice!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Any word on that fire in junction city TWL?

Still going. KEZI news in 30 so I’ll have more then

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Once again the problem going on here tonight is people are talking about two different things.  I'm talking about what is coming while others are talking about the current situation.  Obviously it has been dry and warmer than normal for a while now.  Nobody is denying that.  Unfortunately the troughs coming up are going to be pretty dry for the most part, but it will be cool.

I wasn’t arguing with you at all. I’m glad we have no heatwaves coming up. Should be smoke free for the foreseeable future. I was just talking about how dry it’s been lately. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still going. KEZI news in 30 so I’ll have more then

Hopefully it just ends up being a minor situation. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Once again the problem going on here tonight is people are talking about two different things.  I'm talking about what is coming while others are talking about the current situation.  Obviously it has been dry and warmer than normal for a while now.  Nobody is denying that.  Unfortunately the troughs coming up are going to be pretty dry for the most part, but it will be cool.

You are 100% confident that you are right and the EPS is totally wrong? 

Why are you upset that people are taking what you say with a grain of salt and be a little cautious given that EPS does not see weeks of cold weather coming like you do?  When you always promise cold troughs... no one know when its actually real or not.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5961600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Even the insane warm biased GFS has a high in the 60s later this week in SEA.  Going to be nice!

Yes... looks like a permanent pattern change.

 

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6048000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Everything Jim has been saying is factual based on what the model outputs show, he has not promised anything in any way like others are saying he has.  But I guess Dbags gotta be Dbags constantly. 

Jim wants to know why is he is getting push back again.   I explained.   There are always model runs to support cold troughing.   That is why he said the last week of June would be cold and troughy... and why it looked like July 1954 incoming... and why he said instead of summer starting on July 5th it might end on July 5th.   That is great if you want to cheerlead and there is nothing wrong with that... but don't expect everyone to fall in line and believe everything you say will actually happen.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Jim wants to know why is he is getting push back again.   I explained.   There are always model runs to support cold troughing.   That is why he said the last week of June would be cold and troughy... and why it looked like July 1954 incoming... and why he said instead of summer starting on July 5th it might end on July 5th.   That is great if you want to cheerlead and there is nothing wrong with that... but don't expect everyone to fall in line and believe everything you say will actually happen.  👍

Still no reason for y'all to be douchebags!  Which is what is happening.

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6 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Spent the day visiting this majestic and hiking down the 1/2 mile trail to the river. Lovely! 

FC79B27C-5091-4AEC-93FA-FE8D0013CA69.jpeg

 

You were in my neck of the woods! 

And we were up in Bellingham today.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Still no reason for y'all to be douchebags!  Which is what is happening.

Certainly not my intent.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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