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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

See my post from last night... that does not result in cold temps at the surface.   

Do low temps matter or not?

And "cold" is subjective - it definitely looks below normal for most locations for at least 3-4 days.

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Who would have thought you’d ever be cherry picking SEA to prove how not warm the weather has been. 

You’re also +7 or +8 for July by now I’d imagine? 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Who would have thought you’d ever be cherry picking SEA to prove how not warm the weather has been. 

Are there two better long term stations outside of SEA and OLM to look at for the Puget Sound region?

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I’m having a crapton of anxiety that it might actually be cool for a few days during one of our hottest summers on record and it seems like drumming my fingers on a keyboard is the only thing that will make me feel better. Any advice guys?

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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Depends on where you're talking. If you take out the week of the heatwave, SEA is running about +1.2 for the rest of the summer so far.

Outside of that same crazy week, OLM has seen one 90+ day, and two 85+ days.

It was an extreme event that massively skewed anomalies in a few days time, but that doesn't mean it will end up defining the summer...that remains to be seen, but it's now safe to say we're going have at least 3 weeks after it that had no real region-wide heat.

The bigger story to me is the lack of precip since mid June. Hard to imagine how bad things would be if there hadn't been those two big storms the first half of June.

Funny, because outside of one "crazy week" most of the good winters in the PNW would be utter sh*t.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m having a crapton of anxiety that it might actually be cool for a few days during one of our hottest summers first half of summers on record and it seems like drumming my fingers on a keyboard is the only thing that will make me feel better. Any advice guys?

Fixed.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Funny, because outside of one "crazy week" most of the good winters in the PNW would be utter sh*t.

Yeah, but that has more to do with snowfall. People look at summer a bit differently than winter, I think you'd agree.

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26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Depends on where you're talking. If you take out the week of the heatwave, SEA is running about +1.2 for the rest of the summer so far.

But aside from THAT, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy your evening at Ford’s Theatre?

It's called clown range for a reason.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m having a crapton of anxiety that it might actually be cool for a few days during one of our hottest summers on record and it seems like drumming my fingers on a keyboard is the only thing that will make me feel better. Any advice guys?

This is so stupid... you have been calling out Jim and Phil as well for over-promising troughing.  If the EPS showed troughing for 2 weeks then I would say it shows troughing for 2 weeks.    It is what it is.  

I hope the ECMWF is right and it actually rains here on Friday... that would be wonderful.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but that has more to do with snowfall. People look at summer a bit differently than winter, I think you'd agree.

Nah, historically we are a very temperate climate for both.

I don't expect multiple bunches of days of 100+ in an extreme summer any more than I expect multiple bunches of days with highs below 25 in an extreme winter. It'd be a moronic assessment to act like that should be the standard.

The fact that we haven't (thus far... a whopping third of the way through the season) seen any other stretches of very high end heat doesn't really mean anything in terms of analyzing this summer across the region.

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It has been unusually sunny and consistently warm out here in the cold, wet foothills of the Cascades.   At least call it what it is... and don't try to tell me this has been a normal summer that is about to turn much more chilly for the long term.

Even in July of 2015 it was in the low 70s out here on 7/10 and 7/11 and we had highs in the upper 60s on 7/25 and 7/26.   We get troughs even in the warmest summer.   But its still a warm summer.   We will have a trough and much cooler weather later this week.   But I doubt it lasts long.

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

If you take away the 7 hottest days of the summer (so far) and then only look at the coolest station relative to average in the entire region, then it's actually only been kind of reasonably warm you guys. 

 

Duh.

Again, I referenced OLM as well. Outside of that one 4-5 day stretch, there has been very little region-wide heat. And that's something we're going to be able to say 10 days from now as well, very likely.

Simply a different type of summer than the big boys like 1958, 2009, 2015, and 2018.

But the second half and mainly August will really define things. If it goes the way of 2017, we've got a record or near record warm summer many places. But if August goes the way of 2006, this summer will have a far different context historically.

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Again, I referenced OLM as well. Outside of that one 4-5 day stretch, there has been very little region-wide heat. And that's something we're going to be able to say 10 days from now as well, very likely.

Simply a different type of summer than the big boys like 1958, 2009, 2015, and 2018.

But the second half and mainly August will really will define things. If it goes the way of 2017, we've got a record or near record warm summer many places. But if August goes the way of 2006, this summer will have a far different context historically.

 

I don't know how it could more sunny out here for the last month... it reminds me of 2017 and 2018 in terms of consistent sunshine and persistent warmth.    And the complete opposite of 2019 which might have been statistically warm but with frequent rain and clouds.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It has been unusually sunny and consistently warm out here in the cold, wet foothills of the Cascades.   At least call it what it is... and don't try to tell me this has been a normal summer that is about to turn much more chilly for the long term.

 

I didn't say either one of those things.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't know how it could more sunny out here for the last month... it reminds me of 2017 and 2018 in terms of consistent sunshine and persistent warmth.    And the complete opposite of 2019 which might have been statistically warm but with frequent rain and clouds.

So now the measurement is sunshine? 

Of course, as you know many areas to the west of you have felt the affects of the onshore flow marine layer quite a bit more over the past couple weeks.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

I really hope this trough can bring to BC... it does not look so bad on the satellite up there this morning but it could be about to explode.

 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-ca_reg_west-02-15_10Z-20210712_map_-25-1n-10-100.gif

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Again, I referenced OLM as well. Outside of that one 4-5 day stretch, there has been very little region-wide heat. And that's something we're going to be able to say 10 days from now as well, very likely.

Simply a different type of summer than the big boys like 1958, 2009, 2015, and 2018.

But the second half and mainly August will really will define things. If it goes the way of 2017, we've got a record or near record warm summer many places. But if August goes the way of 2006, this summer will have a far different context historically.

 

You're just making stuff up now.

In 2009, OLM's hottest temperature outside of the big heat wave was 92. In 2021, OLM's hottest temperature outside of the big heat wave has already been 93.

In 2018, OLM's hottest temperature for the entire summer was 96. A number they have exceeded by 14 degrees in 2021. Different type of summer is right!

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

So now the measurement is sunshine? 

Of course, as you know many areas to the west of you have felt the affects of the onshore flow marine layer quite a bit more over the past couple weeks.

Sure... low level inversion.   But my area tells the story about the overall pattern because we don't have endless sunshine and consistent warmth with troughing.

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I wonder how February 1989 would have turned out if you took away February 1989? 

Interestingly winter 2020-21 would have almost certainly been the warmest on record in a good number of places if you took away that one crazy week from February 9-15.

 

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Back in July 2015 SLE started the month with 90+ temps on 7 of the first 8 days, but then went 9 days without a 90+ temp, after a quick heatwave they then went 9 more days until the big heatwave to close the month. Will be interesting to see if SLE can avoid the 90 degree mark for that long this year. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Interestingly winter 2020-21 would have almost certainly been the warmest on record in a good number of places if you took away that one crazy week from February 9-15.

 

This place gives me a good laugh every now and then. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Looks like SLE could pump off two more 90+ days before things start to cool off a bit, chances for sub-80 highs Thursday and Friday. July 2015 had 7 sub-80 high temps. 

Also interesting looking at the month so far, only 2 60+ lows at SLE. At least we have been getting some relief at night. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2016-17 was a good complete winter. I would take that one over 2013-14 any day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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33 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m having a crapton of anxiety that it might actually be cool for a few days during one of our hottest summers on record and it seems like drumming my fingers on a keyboard is the only thing that will make me feel better. Any advice guys?

Downvote everybody and everything you don’t like. Soothes the soul. 

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Looks like the north cascades highway will be closing shortly so fire crews can go fight that fire up there. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

There is some irony here... I posted about the EPS on July 1st and said it did not look troughy at day 10 which was July 11th.   Spoiler alert... it was not troughy yesterday.  

You said that the warmth does not last on the EPS and we are back into a trough by day 14 and 15.   Which is exactly when the troughing will arrive.   The EPS actually did show a troughy signal for this period coming up as soon as it came into view at 15 days out... and you were all over it and it was right.   

 

No it didn’t.

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24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Downvote everybody and everything you don’t like. Soothes the soul. 

A lot of worthy content on here. Trust me, I wish this was a better forum as much as anyone.

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On 7/1/2021 at 12:51 PM, Phil said:


That ridge barely lasts 2 days. Then it’s back to troughing, if anything.

6938DB27-0DC3-4975-AE5A-4D8B0204253C.gif

For the sake of accuracy... here is your post from July 1st highlighting the EPS showing a troughy signal for later this week.

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12Z GFS backed off the troughing over the weekend.

00Z run on top and new 12Z run on the bottom for Saturday:

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6566400 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6566400.png

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

For the sake of accuracy... here is your post from July 1st highlighting the EPS showing a troughy signal for later this week.

To which you responded with a blood red 850mb map. :lol: 

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58 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You're just making stuff up now.

In 2009, OLM's hottest temperature outside of the big heat wave was 92. In 2021, OLM's hottest temperature outside of the big heat wave has already been 93.

In 2018, OLM's hottest temperature for the entire summer was 96. A number they have exceeded by 14 degrees in 2021. Different type of summer is right!

Obviously the June 2021 heatwave far exceeded any other heatwave on record. No one was disputing that, and that was not my point, as you well know.

OLM hit 85+ 23 times in 2009. They hit 90+ 11 times, including 3 heat events separate from the big heatwave.

In 2018, they hit 85+ 28 times. 90+ 14 times.

They are running well behind both those paces in 2021, and that gap will grow over the next 10 days.

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Just now, Phil said:

To which you responded with a blood red 850mb map. :lol: 

I said back then that when the EPS shows persistent warm 850mb temps... its probably going to stay warm.   And the first half of July will indeed end up warmer than normal.   

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47 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Interestingly winter 2020-21 would have almost certainly been the warmest on record in a good number of places if you took away that one crazy week from February 9-15.

 

What is the summer equivalent to third snowiest February on record at SEA?

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So we have had almost uninterrupted warmth for the last month in most places... while Phil and Jim have been basically promising troughing and colder weather coming soon for that entire time.    But THIS time they want everyone to believe a major pattern change is coming and are upset that no one believes them.   👍

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54 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Interestingly winter 2020-21 would have almost certainly been the warmest on record in a good number of places if you took away that one crazy week from February 9-15.

 

It was absolutely one of the warmest on record for here as we had a positive temp departure in Feb and people otherwise had no idea the weather pattern was different at the surface and the local mets talked about how it was one of the warmest "winters" we've ever had.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like SLE could pump off two more 90+ days before things start to cool off a bit, chances for sub-80 highs Thursday and Friday. July 2015 had 7 sub-80 high temps. 

Also interesting looking at the month so far, only 2 60+ lows at SLE. At least we have been getting some relief at night. 

Of course, worth noting that of SLE's 90+ highs this month, only one has exceeded 92. And two just touched 90.

Bit different than how 2015 started.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Of course, worth noting that of SLE's 90+ highs this month, only one has exceeded 92. And two just touched 90.

Bit different than how 2015 started.

Do you know what you are arguing anymore or have even you lost track?

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12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Obviously the June 2021 heatwave far exceeded any other heatwave on record. No one was disputing that, and that was not my point, as you well know.

OLM hit 85+ 23 times in 2009. They hit 90+ 11 times, including 4 heat events separate from the big heatwave.

In 2018, they hit 85+ 28 times. 90+ 14 times.

They are running well behind both those paces in 2021, and that gap will grow over the next 10 days.

It's July 12.

At this point in both 2009 and 2018 they had had six days of 85+, versus nine so far this year (plus a whole slew of 83 and 84 degree days there this year).

Again, you're making stuff up.

 

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16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

A lot of worthy content on here. Trust me, I wish this was a better forum as much as anyone.

I'm sure all your downvotes and the continued discussion they create really helps make this a better forum.

At least no one can say you aren't doing your part.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I said back then that when the EPS shows persistent warm 850mb temps... its probably going to stay warm.   And the first half of July will indeed end up warmer than normal.   

But it showed warm 850mb temps July 15-20+ as well, which was wrong. And it missed the marine layer, ended up being way too warm. The GFS/GEFS was even worse in that regard.

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm sure all your downvotes and the continued discussion they create really helps make this a better forum.

At least no one can say you aren't doing your part.

Lions and tigers and downvotes, oh my!

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Most of the BC interior is under heat warnings for the next 3 days. Just enough onshore flow to keep things in check on the coast.  Could be a tough week for the fire crews if there is any wind.  Sounds like the big Fire north of Kamloops jumped the fire guards over the weekend but it’s been too smoky for them to get in and see how far it’s moved. 

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Some guidance wants to blow up multiple EPAC hurricanes week-2, in response to the CCKW passage (plausible).

In which case, predictability over the NPAC could drop substantially.

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Just now, Phil said:

But it showed warm 850mb temps July 15-20+ as well, which was wrong. And it missed the marine layer, ended up being way too warm. The GFS/GEFS was even worse in that regard.

 

I said 2 weeks ago that when I see warm 850mb temps on the EPS for 2 straight weeks... its probably going to stay warm.   It definitely has stayed warm for those 2 weeks.  

Right now I see a weak trough for later this week and then a return to warm on the EPS.    That is probably a good guide if you want to make a forecast for the second half of July.   

If you want to say its going to turn cold on the 15th and stay cold then go ahead.   That is what Jim is saying.   And I am guessing he will be wrong once again.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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