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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

57 and mist at SEA at 10 a.m. 

73 and sunny here.

57 here…no mist though. Marine layer should be gone soon. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Ish? Definitely wasn't a national torch like 2019-20 or 2015-16.

DJF21TDeptUS.thumb.png.0de80f43ee635cf54acf44743fcffd8d.png

Some areas saw their coldest February on record. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The CMC is notably better than the GFS.

If history is any guide... the ECMWF will trend in the same direction as the GEM for whatever reason.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

GEFS is also cooler than the operational in the mid range.

gfs-ens_T850a_wus_23.thumb.png.bcffded90337a29aa8edf792dcfa2032.png

gfs_T850a_wus_23.thumb.png.e5b628ebea177c505093fa053c9d1983.png

 

Strange... the 850mb map from the 12Z GEFS for Sunday afternoon looks warmer on the WB version.    And trended warmer at that time compared to the 00Z GEFS. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6652800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Bruler Fire up to 60 acres now in heavy timber. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Bruler Fire up to 60 acres now in heavy timber. 

I can't even keep up with them all at this point.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Add a few zeros to that in a few days. 

Of course. Hopefully they can keep it to a few thousand. 

We had a wildfire spark around this time in July 2018 at Silver Falls. They were able to contain it at 27 acres. We had a very dry May/June that year, but the underbrush was still green enough that it didn't blow up that quickly though it did put off a tremendous amount of smoke. That fire started from a lightning strike on June 18, 2018, which smoldered until hot weather hit on July 12th. Three more dry springs and warm summers have come since then, so I shudder to think what a repeat would bring. We lost about 120 acres of the park to the Beachie Creek Fire, but got extremely lucky. The entire Shellburg Falls area burned. That area was a real gem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I can't even keep up with them all at this point.

I'm doing what I can to mow the field grass and clear the brush before it dries out. But I am trying to avoid mowing the field grass during the heat of the day because I'm afraid of sparking a fire if I hit a rock. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

Thoughts on a separate seasonal wildfire thread? It might be nice to have as a way to track progress and serve as some kind of written history.

I think that's a good idea. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Its so strange to see you talking about warmth... it seems like almost every post about your local weather for the last few years has been about ridiculous cold and snow.   Even in the summer!

We will be driving through there in a couple weeks.   My wife assumes Montana is always brown, hot, and smoky because that is how it looks every time we pass through.   I have been telling her about being buried in snow in May and June and September and temps in the 20s there and she thinks I am making it all up.   We have been through there probably 20 times and hot and smoky is now imprinted on her brain!   Not that she would be impressed by seeing cold and snow in the summer either... she would say that is awful too.   😁

I suppose we were "due" for a hot and dry summer as the last several have been below average with above average precip. Bozeman was one of the few cities to actually see a decrease in average temp with the new climate normals so I guess we are making up for lost ground now.

We had 6" of snow on May 23rd this year but we are drying out incredibly fast this year. Way faster than any other year that I've experienced here. Last year at this time things looked much different!

478850590_ScreenShot2021-07-13at12_19_48PM.thumb.png.03500d16c1b43c1d16867983e14068d9.png

Versus a couple of mornings ago.

1243333885_ScreenShot2021-07-13at12_25_28PM.thumb.png.cf3af5a39cf640d9863a6cf7fb43dab9.png

 

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 0.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 47.0º

Coldest low: 40.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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17 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I suppose we were "due" for a hot and dry summer as the last several have been below average with above average precip. Bozeman was one of the few cities to actually see a decrease in average temp with the new climate normals so I guess we are making up for lost ground now.

We had 6" of snow on May 23rd this year but we are drying out incredibly fast this year. Way faster than any other year that I've experienced here. Last year at this time things looked much different!

478850590_ScreenShot2021-07-13at12_19_48PM.thumb.png.03500d16c1b43c1d16867983e14068d9.png

Versus a couple of mornings ago.

1243333885_ScreenShot2021-07-13at12_25_28PM.thumb.png.cf3af5a39cf640d9863a6cf7fb43dab9.png

 

Yeah... we did not go in 2019 and then had to cancel last year due to COVID.    So we have not been through Bozeman since 2018.    And now this trip coming up will just reinforce the brown/hot/smoky perception for her.  🙄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... we did not go in 2019 and then had to cancel last year due to COVID.    So we have not been through Bozeman since 2018.    And now this trip coming up will just reinforce the brown/hot/smoky perception for her.  🙄

I went through Montana last summer, it was pretty nice, no smoke, very hot in mid-August. COVID restrictions seemed minimal. Glacier was packed. All the campgrounds were closed at Glacier due to COVID though, we camped at Hungry Horse Res. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... we did not go in 2019 and then had to cancel last year due to COVID.    So we have not been through Bozeman since 2018.    And now this trip coming up will just reinforce the brown/hot/smoky perception for her.  🙄

Yeah this year is definitely not going to change that perception!

Would LOVE to see a little Canadian Clipper at this point instead of just one building ridge after another. With that said I'm going to really enjoy today's showers and current temp of 66 degrees before the inferno sets back in!

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 0.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 47.0º

Coldest low: 40.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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12Z ECMWF is more troughy next week... which would lead to more spectacular weather and would keep the smoke at bay.   

Here is an example... next Thursday:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6998400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6998400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6998400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is more troughy next week... which would lead to more spectacular weather and would keep the smoke at bay.   

Here is an example... next Thursday:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6998400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6998400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6998400.png

Spectacular weather for you means more explosive fire growth for us. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Spectacular weather for you means more explosive fire growth for us. 

Below 90 down there would be good.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Below 90 down there would be good.

Anything helps. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The EPS is trending cooler for next week as well... the new 12Z run is much cooler than then 12Z run yesterday.

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16 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Last rainfall was June 14 so we’re now a month in with no measurable rainfall. Forget about anything respectable.

It is not unusual to see no rain here in July. Over the past 30 years, about 25% of July's have had no precip at SLE. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Medford currently at 99.2/63.7 so far for July. Medford is the new Redding.

Crater Lake averaging 77.4/50.5, this is a +11 anomaly. This station is at over 7000' elevation.

Our average high temp so far for July is 87.75F at 6300' which is off the charts. The record for July is 86.3F in 1988 which also recorded our highest temp at 99F. I think 93F is the warmest we have recorded so far this month. 

Edit. Also our average low is currently at 50.25F

We have never had a month where the low averaged 50F or higher. The record is 48.9F from 2014

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3 hours ago, sand dune said:

I remember some significant troughing in late August 2015. It was rather abrupt. 

The torch summers of 2015 and 2018 ended with semi decent Septembers, below normal for most of Oregon and Washington. PDX managed a 60/49 day on 9/6/15.

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Just now, AlTahoe said:

Our average high temp so far for July is 87.75F at 6300' which is off the charts. The record for July is 86.3F in 1988 which also recorded our highest temp at 99F. I think 93F is the warmest we have recorded so far this month. 

How are the bears around your place? When I was down there a couple weeks ago we saw a bear roaming through S. Lake Tahoe around noon. Waited for traffic to clear and then crossed a busy highway. The Truckee River where it enters the lake was pretty much a trickle. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How are the bears around your place? When I was down there a couple weeks ago we saw a bear roaming through S. Lake Tahoe around noon. Waited for traffic to clear and then crossed a busy highway. The Truckee River where it enters the lake was pretty much a trickle. 

My neighborhood has around 30 full time bears so I usually see one every couple of days. A mom bear and her 3 cubs have been visiting Pope beach almost daily. https://www.kcra.com/article/mama-bear-cubs-south-lake-tahoe-beachgoers-pope-beach/36947401#

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4 minutes ago, James Jones said:

The torch summers of 2015 and 2018 ended with semi decent Septembers, below normal for most of Oregon and Washington. PDX managed a 60/49 day on 9/6/15.

I was looking at September 2015. The average high was a little bit below average. Things go in cycles. With a la niña developing, I feel pretty confident about a wetter than average October-December period. The ship will get righted eventually.

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67 at SEA at 1 p.m. and 82 here.

Its been warmer out here pretty much every day for the last month.   Sometimes much warmer.   

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OLM is at 75 and the clouds cleared later down there than at SEA.  

Just so strange for SEA to be running so cold lately.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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As of July 12th, Spokane has recorded 22 90+ days since June 1st, and Spokane Valley has recorded 26 90+ days since June 1st. 30-40 90+ is highly probable. Spokane averages 19 per summer season. I don't know Spokane Valley's average.

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4 minutes ago, sand dune said:

As of July 12th, Spokane has recorded 22 90+ days since June 1st, and Spokane Valley has recorded 26 90+ days since June 1st. 30-40 90+ is highly probable. Spokane averages 19 per summer season. I don't know Spokane Valley's average.

The fact that SEA has been running unusually cold even compared to the rest of the Seattle area is certainly helping to fuel the discussion that its been so much colder up here.   But it has not been anywhere close to normal in terms of temps or rainfall out here in the foothills for the last month... much warmer and drier than normal.

And even within the immediate Seattle area... SEA is +1.2 on the month and WFO SEA is at +3.9.   So its sort of a false narrative to say its been so much different up here.     I would guess the departure from normal in my area has been about the same as PDX.

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32 minutes ago, sand dune said:

I was looking at September 2015. The average high was a little bit below average. Things go in cycles. With a la niña developing, I feel pretty confident about a wetter than average October-December period. The ship will get righted eventually.

One would think. We really need a few wetter than average seasons to really right the ship. The late 80s early 90s were a long term drought in the PNW and were followed by a very wet period in the mid-late 90s. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The fact that SEA has been running unusually cold even compared to the rest of the Seattle area is certainly helping to fuel the discussion that its been so much colder up here.   But it has not been anywhere close to normal in terms of temps or rainfall out here in the foothills for the last month... much warmer and drier than normal.

And even within the immediate Seattle area... SEA is +1.2 on the month and WFO SEA is at +3.9.   So its sort of a false narrative to say its been so much different up here.     I would guess the departure from normal in my area has been about the same as PDX.

PDX is running a +3.6 departure on the month. So pretty similar to WFO SEA. Most of the valley is in the +5-6F range at this point. Very very hot days (88.3 average at SLE month to date.), but night time lows have been closer to average. 

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2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX is running a +3.6 departure on the month. So pretty similar to WFO SEA. Most of the valley is in the +5-6F range at this point. Very very hot days (88.3 average at SLE month to date.), but night time lows have been closer to average. 

Same here... warm, sunny days and average nights.  

And endlessly sunny.    Which is not really normal even for summer here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One would think. We really need a few wetter than average seasons to really right the ship. The late 80s early 90s were a long term drought in the PNW and were followed by a very wet period in the mid-late 90s. 

The Spokane firestorm was in October 1991. What a scary event! The whole thing was preceded by a super dry period between July and October. There were fires burning all around the Spokane area fueled by 60 mph winds.

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The fact that SEA has been running unusually cold even compared to the rest of the Seattle area is certainly helping to fuel the discussion that its been so much colder up here.   But it has not been anywhere close to normal in terms of temps or rainfall out here in the foothills for the last month... much warmer and drier than normal.

And even within the immediate Seattle area... SEA is +1.2 on the month and WFO SEA is at +3.9.   So its sort of a false narrative to say its been so much different up here.    

Per this map, it's definitely fair to say the Puget Sound region has been cooler anomaly-wise than the Willamette Valley. OLM is at +2.4 on the month, and HQM is at +1.5.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.463e8d04dc9d291f7fbb9a917d894fbe.png

 

SLE is running the warmest anomaly of anywhere on the westside, well above Portland and Eugene, which is also reflected on the map.

It's been a month dominated by weak onshore flow, so it makes sense that the coast and areas closer to the sound have been quite a bit cooler than your area (which is often warmer in the summer anyway).

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Per this map, it's definitely fair to say the Puget Sound region has been cooler anomaly-wise than the Willamette Valley.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.463e8d04dc9d291f7fbb9a917d894fbe.png

 

SLE is running the warmest anomaly of anywhere on the westside, well above Portland and Eugene, which is also reflected on the map.

It's been a month dominated by weak onshore flow, so it makes sense that the coast and areas closer to the sound have been cooler than your area (which is often warmer in the summer anyway).

Looks like I was right about my area being about the same as PDX in terms of temp anomalies.   Maybe even a little more anomalously warm up here.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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