July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I didn't appreciate February 2019 in the moment and regret that now. We didn't have one signature event here like Seattle or Eugene did. Just 18 days with 1"+ of snow, good for 52.2" total. Might be awhile before we see something like that again. 

I didn't expect much. Niño Februaries are often huge turds. February 2019 was like Halloween candy that you find unexpectedly weeks later. 

[Cloud]

Sun is out!  

[snow drift]

Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

I had a severe thunderstorm Aug 10th 2019 at 3am. Ironic that it occurred after they cancelled the Watch, I waited all the previous evening for one. A rancher to my east in Olene has 1" hail and believes a tornado was near the ranch. Yeah the convection was wet, like it was in all of 2015 down here. 

Never got video of that storm. The wind and the rain made it impossible to tripod my equipment anywhere.

Eastern Oregon always has great thunderstorms. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

It was the snowiest October. Last October had the largest 1 day snowstorm. 7 inches was reported at the airport on the 23rd.

Oct 2019 was Denver's third coldest on record, behind 2009 and 1969. Something about the nines.

There were two ridiculous cold blasts that month. One on the tenth brought a 29/13 day, the coldest low that early on record. Then the 29th and 30 brought two days with highs in the teens, also the earliest ever.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX had 9 90+ days... They weren't all at the end of the month. At Salem the first half of June 2021 was only 0.7F cooler than the first half of June 2015. 

Doesn't negate the other facts I stated. It's normal to have a 90 degree day or two in June.

Most places were cooler than SLE the first half of last month.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... the first half of June was much different.   Since the middle of the month... its been warm and the models keep showing warm.   That has reminded me of 2015.     But a feeling is also based on what a person is experiencing and you have not been experiencing our weather.   Its totally subjective.   And not a forecast.

True, you can feel whatever you want lol.

July is also starting out substantially different than 2015.

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m pretty sure you predicted troughing after the solstice and we ended up with one of the most anomalous heat waves in the history of the planet.  It was a big miss for you just own it. 

Haha. Bro I’ve owned it 15+ times already. Where have you been this week?

What I take issue with is this manufactured narrative that I’ve been “over promising” troughs for several weeks. Which is literally impossible considering the first half of June was actually cooler than I envisioned.

In reality, our resident north bend heat miser is merely trying to convince himself that evil troughs have been vanquished, and using my phuck-up as a crutch to do so. It’s amusing but also annoying.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Haha. Bro I’ve owned it 15+ times already. Where have you been this week?

What I take issue with is this manufactured narrative that I’ve been “over promising” troughs for several weeks. Which is literally impossible considering the first half of June was actually cooler than I envisioned.

In reality, our resident north bend heat miser is merely trying to convince himself that evil troughs have been vanquished, and using my phuck-up as a crutch to do so. It’s amusing but also annoying.

Strawman!   I am not saying anything about troughing being gone for the rest of the summer.     I have said numerous times that I can really say much about what will happen beyond 2 weeks.  

And I will concede that in late May and early June you were definitely under-selling troughing.    And I could not understand why you you thought the first half of June would be mostly warm and ridgy... because it most certainly was not.

But while downplaying that troughy period... you started really hyping the troughing that was coming in late June and early July.    You were ignoring actual troughing and cold weather happening and were already selling the next troughy period hard.     

As I said... everything has pretty much gone the opposite of what you have said this summer and you have gone out of your way to double and triple down on your bad predictions.     I have no idea what is going on... but it has not been your best performance.  

And I give you major props for good predictions.    I think you nailed the summer of 2019 for example... even though I was really hoping you were wrong.   

 

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Eastern Oregon always has great thunderstorms. 

Analogs don't always work but a lot of hot Junes follow epic storm seasons in the summer. Have a camera handy these next 60-75 days.

[TT-SEA]

Phil downplaying the troughing during the first half of June was just as frustrating to me as Phil downplaying this current warm pattern that looks to continue for the next couple weeks.  Its not about my preferences.  He just seems to be completely out of sync with this summer's patterns.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil downplaying the troughing during the first half of June was just as frustrating to me as Phil downplaying this current warm pattern that looks to continue for the next couple weeks.   Its not about my preferences.   He just seems to be completely out of sync with this summer's patterns.

I think Phil does better with his forecasts during the colder seasons.  He has had some really good calls over the years.  It just doesn’t seem like the tropics stuff teleconnects as well during the warm season. 

[Deweydog]

I’m starting to get the feeling forecasting weather weeks and months in advance is not easy. Especially when a years long troll war is in play.

[Phil]

What are these icons next to our avatars?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I’m starting to get the feeling forecasting weather weeks and months in advance is not easy. Especially when a years long troll war is in play.

Very true!  

 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think Phil does better with his forecasts during the colder seasons.  He has had some really good calls over the years.  It just doesn’t seem like the tropics stuff teleconnects as well during the warm season. 

That is true. Fewer conduits for tropical/extra-tropical communication on subseasonal timescales during the warm season.

Some summers they’re talking to eachother, other summers they’re butting heads. I think this year is a mixed bag (so far).

[GHweatherChris]

Good f*****g lord... 

 

[Phil]

If these firestorms continue at this magnitude there’s a good chance it will influence the stratosphere as we head into the cold season.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

If these firestorms continue at this magnitude there’s a good chance it will influence the stratosphere as we head into the cold season.

I was thinking the same thing last night watching that explosion in BC... it look bigger than the recent volcano in the Caribbean.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian smoke model does send ground level smoke into eastern WA by Saturday... but also keeps most of the elevated smoke out of WA.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Eventually Phil’s trough will get here. It has to at some point. 

February 2022! 

[TT-SEA]

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Just got blasted with hurricane force winds.

It looks like your winds are currently out of the NNE gusting to 5mph. 

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

 

Devastating. Driving through the canyon was always one of my favourite drives.  The Lytton to Spences Bridge stretch is (was) incredibly beautiful

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Devastating. Driving through the canyon was always one of my favourite drives.  The Lytton to Spences Bridge stretch is (was) incredibly beautiful

Yes, and Lytton was not a very big place. That’s probably most of the central core of it in that photo. With the exception of a few buildings, all gone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In the past 5 years in Oregon the following river canyons/gorges have burned.

Columbia River

Clackamas River

Molalla River

Breitenbush River

North Fork Santiam River

Little North Fork Santiam River

South Fork McKenzie River

McKenzie River

North Fork Umpqua River 2X

South Fork Umpqua River

[Cloud]

49 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Good f*****g lord... 

 

I know and it’s only July 1st  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In the past 5 years in Oregon the following river canyons/gorges have burned.

Columbia River

Clackamas River

Molalla River

Breitenbush River

North Fork Santiam River

Little North Fork Santiam River

South Fork McKenzie River

McKenzie River

North Fork Umpqua River 2X

South Fork Umpqua River

Lest I forget the Chetco Bar fire of 2017, I think it got the Chetco and Illinois river systems. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF showed hot weather late next week and now the 18Z GFS steps it up more.    Starting to get a feeling that another hot spell is coming.     And I really wish that was not the case.  

[Deweydog]

lol goofus 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF showed hot weather late next week and now the 18Z GFS steps it up more.    Starting to get a feeling that another hot spell is coming.     And I really wish that was not the case.  

As if on cue the sun emerges. Like I said before. You may not be the best messenger for this bad news. But I know you relish the vitriol that is going to inevitably come your way. 

[Front Ranger]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

If these firestorms continue at this magnitude there’s a good chance it will influence the stratosphere as we head into the cold season.

You think the fact that this stratospheric disruption is so close geographically will be a factor?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As if on cue the sun emerges. Like I said before. You may not be the best messenger for this bad news. But I know you relish the vitriol that is going to inevitably come your way. 

The thought of more hot weather actually makes me pretty queasy right now... but I report on things I like and don't like all the time.   Nature does not care what we want.  

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF showed hot weather late next week and now the 18Z GFS steps it up more.    Starting to get a feeling that another hot spell is coming.     And I really wish that was not the case.  

Meh, this is what it was showing in the mid range yesterday.

 

And here we have today.

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Meh, this is what it was showing in the mid range yesterday.

 

And here we have today.

 

Yeah... and that little ULL does not seem to matter in the big picture.   We are watching the period after that when the 4CH seems intent on expanding and shifting west.   

[Farmboy]

Ugh, why does summer weather have to include hellish firestorm weather?

[Cloud]

We have conflicting reports!

[Cloud]

Just now, Farmboy said:

Ugh, why does summer weather have to include hellish firestorm weather?

Maybe because we have trees… many many trees? 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, CloudBFIWx said:

We have conflicting reports!

Not conflicting... there may or may not be a little ULL that swings through mid-week.    But that is not related to the big players and the overall pattern evolution that appears to be taking shape for later next week.      

[TT-SEA]

SEA is up to 74... and going to end up at least +4 today to start the month due to the warm overnight low.