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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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4 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Maybe it’s not such a bad idea to start raking the forest floors like how The Don wants it. 🤣

Seriously, restoration forestry is a thing. Log the smaller trees, mulch the brush, then set fire to what remains. Because the ladder fuels are gone, you will have a ground fire that the remaining big trees survive. Then just let it burn whenever it catches fire, because it will be another ground fire.

Have seen the results of it in the eastern Cascades of both Oregon and Washington and it leaves a very aesthetically-pleasing open forest of large pine trees, with lots of forest floor wildflowers in the spring.

Only wrinkle is that there is not much money in small spindly logs, and no money at all in mulched brush, so such forestry never pays for itself. It must be subsidized.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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9 t'storm days in July 2015. That's my personal record for the month. 8 in July 2014.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, restoration forestry is a thing. Log the smaller trees, mulch the brush, then set fire to what remains. Because the ladder fuels are gone, you will have a ground fire that the remaining big trees survive. Then just let it burn whenever it catches fire, because it will be another ground fire.

Have seen the results of it in the eastern Cascades of both Oregon and Washington and it leaves a very aesthetically-pleasing open forest of large pine trees, with lots of forest floor wildflowers in the spring.

Only wrinkle is that there is not much money in small spindly logs, and no money at all in mulched brush, so such forestry never pays for itself. It must be subsidized.

Yes. This is something that needed and should've been done. It’s not uncommon to start fires to prevent wildfires.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Super PV?

About to see a freezeless winter.

I feel like we are due for a wet October/November. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like we are due for a wet October/November. 

Battle Ground hasn't seen a 10"+ November since 2006. This after seeing them in 1998, 1996, 1995, 1991, 1988, 1984, 1983, 1973, 1962, 1960, 1958, 1955, 1950, 1945, and 1942. Definitely are due here.

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

73/62 today. Had very little sunshine again today. Humid but comfortable.

74/64 for me at home. The nights remains quite warm. Good thing the marine layer is keeping the heat in check but it’s humid.

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I know Oct/Nov 2016 was an absolute soaker, but I don't think the basin has had a "wet Fall" SINCE 2016... 

Can we get a few AR's before December this year? 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Summer continues to be our deadliest, most destructive season by about tenfold

https://katu.com/news/local/oregon-deaths-related-to-historic-heat-wave-climb-to-69

 

For us WA State the death toll is at 20 with 13 in King County and these numbers are expected to rise. Overall, almost 100 have died in OR and WA. This is excluding our neighbors up north where they’ve been devastated as well. 

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I know Oct/Nov 2016 was an absolute soaker, but I don't think the basin has had a "wet Fall" SINCE 2016... 

Can we get a few AR's before December this year? 

A mostly wet and mild latter half of October and first half of November, followed by an arctic blast in late November, would be nice. Have not seen a significant amount of November snow in the lowlands in quite a while.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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15 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I know Oct/Nov 2016 was an absolute soaker, but I don't think the basin has had a "wet Fall" SINCE 2016... 

Can we get a few AR's before December this year? 

That was our last wet water year. Record wet October, decently wet November and then extremely wet February and March. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Maybe because we have trees… many many trees? 

We just need a good soak or two or three during July/August to keep some moisture content going, but apparently this seems too difficult a feat...

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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12 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

We just need a good soak or two or three during July/August to keep some moisture content going, but apparently this seems too difficult a feat...

I don’t think anyone is going to dispute this statement. Even Tim. But what we want/need is completely different how Mother Nature let things play out. 

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The sun is a little redder today. 

93/55.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF showed hot weather late next week and now the 18Z GFS steps it up more.    Starting to get a feeling that another hot spell is coming.     And I really wish that was not the case.  

Buckle your chin straps, boys. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

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Just now, Phil said:

I think a tornado just went through DC. Hellacious winds, tore through the trees and knocked out my anemometer.

Do you still have your cam up? Would love to see what it looks like there. 

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3 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Do you still have your cam up? Would love to see what it looks like there. 

We have two nest cams will see if they were online. Power was surging all over the place.

There was even a debris ball signature just south of here before it went through DC. I think we were in the inflow notch. 

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Ugh this is gonna be an expensive fix. Rain gauge isn’t working either now. Anemometer giving spurious or nonexistent readings. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

We have two nest cams will see if they were online. Power was surging all over the place.

There was even a debris ball signature just south of here before it went through DC. I think we were in the inflow notch. 

I believe it, radar looks nasty right over DC. Seems like Richmond is getting hammered as well. 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

What are these icons next to our avatars?

I looked more into this, it looks like it’s a new feature Fred added in. It’s cool imo, sort of maybe an incentive for people to post more to earn ranks and badges. Appears that each time you post and people react to your posts, you earn points towards next rank. You can look under your profile to see.

Only downside I can see with this feature is people can potentially post nothing but junk to earn ranks and not weather related. Guess we’ll see how it plays out

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, restoration forestry is a thing. Log the smaller trees, mulch the brush, then set fire to what remains. Because the ladder fuels are gone, you will have a ground fire that the remaining big trees survive. Then just let it burn whenever it catches fire, because it will be another ground fire.

Have seen the results of it in the eastern Cascades of both Oregon and Washington and it leaves a very aesthetically-pleasing open forest of large pine trees, with lots of forest floor wildflowers in the spring.

Only wrinkle is that there is not much money in small spindly logs, and no money at all in mulched brush, so such forestry never pays for itself. It must be subsidized.

I realize the terrain is vastly different, but my brother had thousands of acres of forest land in S. Georgia, and they strictly followed a burn management plan to keep the undergrowth in check.  They burned each section every 3 year or so (from what I remember).  Worked out great, very few fire issues from summertime lightning strikes,

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Really gorgeous day here again. Mostly cloudy and 73/62. Even scored some morning drizzle, enough to settle the dust at least.

I think all the local vegetation is appreciating having a couple day reprieve from blazing sunshine.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Really gorgeous day here again. Mostly cloudy and 73/62. Even scored some morning drizzle, enough to settle the dust at least.

I think all the local vegetation is appreciating having a couple day reprieve from blazing sunshine.

Yeah it was wet ground here also. Even had some fog. Felt amazing.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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58 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is a common around here. 100's of trees burnt.

20210701_174011.jpg

I noticed driving around doing errands today there were some trees that had a slight fall color to them today. Didn’t see anything quite that level in Tacoma but there’s some noticeable damage.

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was our last wet water year. Record wet October, decently wet November and then extremely wet February and March. 

It's been that long, huh? I remember October 2016 being incredibly wet. The following winter was a winner. Had snowcover over in Coeur d'Alene for roughly 3 months.

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Two forecast bust days in a row.  Yesterday's forecast high was 88, actual 76.

Today forecast of 86, actual 72.

Haven't had that bad of a forecast bust since last September with the fire inversions.

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4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Two forecast bust days in a row.  Yesterday's forecast high was 88, actual 76.

Today forecast of 86, actual 72.

Haven't had that bad of a forecast bust since last September with the fire inversions.

Really odd that they didn't adjust the second day.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I looked more into this, it looks like it’s a new feature Fred added in. It’s cool imo, sort of maybe an incentive for people to post more to earn ranks and badges. Appears that each time you post and people react to your posts, you earn points towards next rank. You can look under your profile to see.

Only downside I can see with this feature is people can potentially post nothing but junk to earn ranks and not weather related. Guess we’ll see how it plays out

I think it's actually opposite - you get points for reacting.

Yay?

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I realize the terrain is vastly different, but my brother had thousands of acres of forest land in S. Georgia, and they strictly followed a burn management plan to keep the undergrowth in check.  They burned each section every 3 year or so (from what I remember).  Worked out great, very few fire issues from summertime lightning strikes,

Totally different, but the Southern pine forests are also a fire ecosystem.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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This marine push was pretty epic.  I see that even Vantage was only in the upper 70s this evening while places out of the line of fire from the Kittitas Valley were in the low 90s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This marine push was pretty epic.  I see that even Vantage was only in the upper 70s this evening while places out of the line of fire from the Kittitas Valley were in the low 90s.

Impressive..Hard to keep Vantage in the upper 70s in July

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18 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Two forecast bust days in a row.  Yesterday's forecast high was 88, actual 76.

Today forecast of 86, actual 72.

Haven't had that bad of a forecast bust since last September with the fire inversions.

They're probably going by the GFS surface obs forecasts which are horrific as of late...with the exception of a few days here and there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, Snowdrift said:

Impressive..Hard to keep Vantage in the upper 70s in July

And yet SEA was +3 today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Really odd that they didn't adjust the second day.

The ECMWF was insistent that the marine layer would stick around most of the day today for about 4 or 5 days now.     Marine layer days are not usually in the mid 80s.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

High was exactly normal, though.

Far cry from expectations a few days ago.

Not sure about that... I was posting a few days ago about Thursday possibly being cloudy and in the 70s.    I posted ECMWF maps of the marine layer still in place in the middle of the afternoon.   Before that it did appear warmer for sure.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I remember alot of talk about how Seattle would be in the 80's all week and warming further in to the weekend, definitely more talk about that a few days ago than talk about clouds and 70's.

Yeah... I was just looking back and this is correct.   Of course at the time we were saying the ECMWF was horrible with temps because it was so low for the heat wave and we were more trusting of the GFS.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hindsight is 20/20 of course... but this outcome made more sense after a extreme heat event.    And of course the models would struggle with a strong inversion.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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