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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are up in Bellingham.... catching up now and sort of confused by all this cold talk and summer ending soon.   

Here is the 12Z EPS... when it looks like this it won't be cold for too long.   Silly to be talking about a long term chilly pattern.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626004800-1626004800-1627300800-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1626004800-1626004800-1627300800-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6004800.png

It has certainly strengthened the troughing as it's gotten closer. Sometimes those ULLs like to meander in unpredictable ways, hard to say when its affects will fully wane for the PNW.

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are up in Bellingham.... catching up now and sort of confused by all this cold talk and summer ending soon.   

Here is the 12Z EPS... when it looks like this it won't be cold for too long.   Silly to be talking about a long term chilly pattern.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626004800-1626004800-1627300800-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1626004800-1626004800-1627300800-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6004800.png

At the very least there’s a cooler spell mid next week. Kind of pathetic compared to the persistent summer heat, but cooler temperatures + moist marine air means significantly lowered fire potential.

At this point I’ll grasp for anything. And the LR could change (either way), as you know quite well. No need to make vast proclamations quite yet.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It has certainly strengthened the troughing as it's gotten closer. Sometimes those ULLs like to meander in unpredictable ways, hard to say when its affects will fully wane for the PNW.

True... but even just offshore is going to be pretty warm.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Dude it’s been a very hot first half of the summer for a lot of the region. It wouldn’t take much for it to be a top 5 summer…and hottest ever is in the realm of possibilities depending on if we get some anomalous torching. You act as if it’s such an outlandish possibility but it really isn’t. One cool week in June and some potentially below normal days coming next weekend don’t change that much. Nobody truly knows…but it’s not impossible and top 5 seems pretty realistic based on the first half and how recent 21st century summers have been going. 

I was just teasing Andrew.

Sure, top 5 is very possible for many locations. Hottest on record certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Never said it wasn't.

But a lot of people at the end of June seemed convinced that the pattern would stay very warm to hot for the rest of summer, and something like 2015 or hotter was virtually a lock.

Warm lows the first week of July have helped keep anomalies up, but for Portland north, the days so far this month have been far cooler than 2015, and no sign of any heatwaves in the foreseeable future.

These things aren't mutually exclusive.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

I was just teasing Andrew.

Sure, top 5 is very possible for many locations. Hottest on record certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Never said it wasn't.

But a lot of people at the end of June seemed convinced that the pattern would stay very warm to hot for the rest of summer, and something like 2015 or hotter was virtually a lock.

Warm lows the first week of July have helped keep anomalies up, but for Portland north, the days so far this month have been far cooler than 2015, and no sign of any heatwaves in the foreseeable future.

These things aren't mutually exclusive.

I will agree the last 2 weeks have been pretty nice. Doesn’t change the fact we were +4.2 last month and we’re +2.1 this month…albeit overnight lows bumping the avg. up. I hope that we avoid top 5 status this year but I doubt it. Won’t take too much warmth in late July or august to put us up in the top tier hot summers. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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13AD6A35-02F2-4CDB-B979-2310A5D5D2D1.thumb.png.4a4d5f2307a75761c08ba8cc0d4574f2.png

18z GFS has some precipitation in northern WA. It’s not in OR where they really need it, but I guess it’s better somehwere than nowhere...?

BC gets some appreciable rain. Precipitation is showery nature in a mixed enviromnent instead of a stable marine inversion, so high temperatures shouldn’t be too capped (73-77 instead of 65).

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I do think the East is going to get their turn shortly.

Looks like it, unfortunately. Prob in the 7/30 - 8/15 period.

Then the West could see another one in late August?

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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I was just teasing Andrew.

Sure, top 5 is very possible for many locations. Hottest on record certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Never said it wasn't.

But a lot of people at the end of June seemed convinced that the pattern would stay very warm to hot for the rest of summer, and something like 2015 or hotter was virtually a lock.

Warm lows the first week of July have helped keep anomalies up, but for Portland north, the days so far this month have been far cooler than 2015, and no sign of any heatwaves in the foreseeable future.

These things aren't mutually exclusive.

Have you ever thought about becoming a sleazy lawyer?

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56 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hi 👋 

I figured.  Not sure why you downvoted the cold 850 map though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, sand dune said:

nino34Sea.gif

Second year Nina after a hot summer.  Could be fun.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like it, unfortunately. Prob in the 7/30 - 8/15 period.

Then the West could see another one in late August?

I would do more puke emojis if I could!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The second possible trough is showing up on the 18z ensemble 850 graph.  It shows a second round of sagging below normal.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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97/52 today. A little ways from the record of 100 in 2002.

However... day 18 of 90+. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Jesse has earned a sun emoji from me for the next year!!!! ☀️ 🌞 He should feel quite luckily!! 😎 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Jesse has earned a sun emoji from me for the next year!!!! ☀️ 🌞 He should feel quite luckily!! 😎 

Sun emojis in January!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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For the first time this year I reached 200 AQI. Dipped a little from it but could go over that again tonight.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Sun emojis in January!

I was wearing shorts this day! Sun and warmth in January is a given! Has been since after 1950! 

B4BF4426-C72B-47D2-96ED-1ED4B0946716.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Second year Nina after a hot summer.  Could be fun.

Thought this was a cold summer that was about to get much colder?

  • Snow 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I was wearing shorts this day! Sun and warmth in January is a given! Has been since after 1950! 

B4BF4426-C72B-47D2-96ED-1ED4B0946716.jpeg

I think January 2014 I had mid-upper 50's a couple days. Windows open!

Crazy it can happen up over 4000 feet!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Another one baby!!! 90F

E42A449D-DE04-45D6-B0A4-69F8A814FE64.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

I think January 2014 I had mid-upper 50's a couple days. Windows open!

Crazy it can happen up over 4000 feet!

And I did!

2014-01.png

  • Excited 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Another one baby!!! 90F

E42A449D-DE04-45D6-B0A4-69F8A814FE64.jpeg

Rams are going to be basement dwellers this season! Stafford is going to get hurt on the season opener. Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Seems like every night when I’m looking over the satellite imagery there’s more fires. Bootleg fire starting to put off a big smoke plume…

  Many new fire starts currently. Going to be a very tough long fire season across the west this summer. 

C672B02D-5FB5-4685-A29B-54277FA20153.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Yesterday's plume in animation.

https://imgur.com/aNjYk8X

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Today was tough, but we got it. 90 at SLE for the 3rd day in a row, 7th time this month, and 18th time this summer. 

  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Grandview Fire southwest of Culver now at 300 acres with some level 3 evacuations. Seems like they have been able to get a lot of resources on it very quickly. Another fire has broken out and grown to 10 acres near LaPine with "group torching," crews and air support on the scene there too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Today was tough, but we got it. 90 at SLE for the 3rd day in a row, 7th time this month, and 18th time this summer. 

I hit 75.0! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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25 total days over 90 here. Can I make a shot at 40? 😱

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Is there any other kind?

Saul Goodman!

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  • Excited 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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