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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Just now, Front Ranger said:

I remember just a few days ago it was showing a bunch of 82-85 highs in the mid range.

Yeah... the 500mb pattern shown is a little more troughy now.    It's a spectacular pattern overall... lots of sun and pleasant temps after Friday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

OMG!  The GFS surface projection actually don't have SEA hitting 90 any time in the next 15 days.  Watching those predictions this summer has been frustrating to say the least.  According to that we should have had no sub 80 days in SEA in the past 3 or 4 weeks.

All guidance has been too warm in Seattle of late. Those clown range meteograms projecting low/mid 80s in the LR probably aren’t going to verify.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

All guidance has been too warm in Seattle of late. Those clown range meteograms projecting low/mid 80s in the LR probably aren’t going to verify.

Interesting for you to say low 80s won’t verify considering the period you just mentioned average about 80F for SEA. Are you suggesting we’ll be below average? 🤔 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

All guidance has been too warm in Seattle of late. Those clown range meteograms projecting low/mid 80s in the LR probably aren’t going to verify.

Dude... its not that simple.   The pattern being shown next week basically wipes out the marine inversion with a trough mixing things up offshore.   That is a perfect recipe for the ECMWF to go back to its cold bias and the GFS to become more accurate (though still a little warm as usual).  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Just a few days ago it was showing a bunch of 82-85 highs in the mid range.

Yep. Ensemble means lose clarity at-range, smoothing wavetrains and giving an illusion of stability.

Easy to misinterpret.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Hottestsummaeva

I never predicted that at all... and never really predicted anything beyond a 2-week window.

I said it felt a little like 2015 at one point... and it did.   But that is not a forecast that it will be just like 2015 for the rest of the summer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Interesting for you to say low 80s won’t verify considering the period you just mentioned average about 80F for SEA. Are you suggesting we’ll be below average? 🤔 

Yes, there will probably be many below average days over the next two weeks.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yep. Ensemble means lose clarity at-range, smoothing wavetrains and giving an illusion of stability.

Easy to misinterpret.

And yet somehow that should always be interpreted as being much colder.     What else should we expect in this cold, troughy summer?   😄

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yes, there will probably be many below average days over the next two weeks.

Take away the inversion (like we have today) and it will start running warmer than the ECMWF/EPS shows again... which is pretty normal in the warm season.

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8 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Interesting for you to say low 80s won’t verify considering the period you just mentioned average about 80F for SEA. Are you suggesting we’ll be below average? 🤔 

I think the normal high is at the peak now which is 78.     So it has to be 77 or below for a colder than normal high.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes, there will probably be many below average days over the next two weeks.

Eh? It’s really hard to tell especially when it comes to the marine layers. Yesterday at 1pm SEA was at 68F and it would appears the area would have a good shot at a below average day. Then the layer burned off and ended up at 81F. 
 

It’s just extremely difficult to tell when you have marine influence involved and how fast it’ll burn. 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the normal high is at the peak now which is 78.     So it has to be 77 or below for a colder than normal high.   

SEA have not peaked yet. 79F is average for last few days of July. 

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2 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Eh? It’s really hard to tell especially when it comes to the marine layers. Yesterday at 1pm SEA was at 68F and it would appears the area would have a good shot at a below average day. Then the layer burned off and ended up at 81F. 
 

It’s just extremely difficult to tell when you have marine influence involved and how fast it’ll burn. 

We have been in a consistent low-level inversion pattern with no upper level drivers... it has been much more difficult than usual to predict SEA temperatures.

That trough offshore all of next week is an upper level driver... and the ECMWF insists that it basically wipes out the marine layer except for along the coast.   That is going to make it much easier to predict SEA... and the ECMWF/EPS will likely go back to their cool bias.    Phil is assuming the rules have changed permanently and SEA will always run colder than guidance now.    But it won't.

And side note... almost every single day for the last month has been warmer than normal for the high temp out here.     The inversion has not had much of an effect at all away from the water.  

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I never predicted that at all... and never really predicted anything beyond a 2-week window.

I said it felt a little like 2015 at one point... and it did.   But that is not a forecast that it will be just like 2015 for the rest of the summer.

I know. There was just a general chorus along those lines at the end of June.

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Take away the inversion (like we have today) and it will start running warmer than the ECMWF/EPS shows again... which is pretty normal in the warm season.

But it may be cooler at night. With below normal 850s, that is often the case with decoupling.

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27 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Eh? It’s really hard to tell especially when it comes to the marine layers. Yesterday at 1pm SEA was at 68F and it would appears the area would have a good shot at a below average day. Then the layer burned off and ended up at 81F. 
 

It’s just extremely difficult to tell when you have marine influence involved and how fast it’ll burn. 

The boundary layer will be notably cooler going forward, so even with mixing your temperature ceiling is lower.

Could be less marine layer, but cooler nights and near average days, which might average out as weak negative departures.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

The boundary layer will be notably cooler going forward, so even with mixing your temperature ceiling is lower.

Could be less marine layer, but cooler nights and near average days, which might average out as weak negative departures.

I can see the cooler nights effecting the overall departure... that is true.  

But the days will be sunny and warm after Friday or Saturday.   Can't buy a rain drop... and SEA normally gets around .70 in July.       Very much like 2017 right now... walking the tightrope with pleasant temps and yet very sunny and almost no rain.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I can see the cooler nights effecting the overall departure... that is true.  

But the days will be sunny and warm after Friday or Saturday.   Can't buy a rain drop... and SEA normally gets around .70 in July.       Very much like 2017 right now... walking the tightrope with pleasant temps and yet very sunny and almost no rain.

Hopefully the analog doesn’t hold true for august. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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79 here... and only 70 at SEA.  

It takes a perfect balance for it to be warmer out here than at SEA pretty much every day for a month straight.    The normal high here in the summer is about the same as SEA so it's really unusual for it to be this consistently warmer out here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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87F. All being well we should fall short of another 90-burger.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Headed up to Tangent so when I get back we will know if downtown Springfield hit 90F.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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After Tiger Woods called me out yesterday for getting Springfield mixed up with Salem I looked into it today and realized it's not so much of a Springfield vs Salem thing, but Salem vs Eugene.  Not sure why I thought he lived in the Salem area.  That is obviously a big difference.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, sand dune said:

Felts Field reported 100 @ 4:15 and haze

We have been very lucky over here.  The Pacific high has maintained enough influence to keep us pretty cool overall.  Even Kittitas County has benefitted greatly from the relentless onshore flow.  Going to be cooler for everyone tomorrow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Keep ur pollution 2 urselves plz & thx.

F424E4CB-E623-4A65-853B-DCB3C94824E4.jpeg

Kind of laughable from someone that posts about Mid Atlantic weather on a Pacific Northwest forum.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Keep ur pollution 2 urselves plz & thx.

F424E4CB-E623-4A65-853B-DCB3C94824E4.jpeg

Its mostly Canadians and now Oregon.   I prefer to keep it all moving east... thanks!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

After Tiger Woods called me out yesterday for getting Springfield mixed up with Salem I looked into it today and realized it's not so much of a Springfield vs Salem thing, but Salem vs Eugene.  Not sure why I thought he lived in the Salem area.  That is obviously a big difference.

 No worries man. Much like you it’s probly way different at times between y’all and Olympia for example. I truly appreciate your enthusiasm for fun weather and I want your optimistic outlooks to come true, especially when it involves lots of major cold CCG events!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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18 minutes ago, iFred said:

Kind of laughable from someone that posts about Mid Atlantic weather on a Pacific Northwest forum.

Not seeing the connection.

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3 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

The gray should be a thin strip going between Tim’s house and Mossman’s house.

Also did not know “Okanagon” was a county in WA.

Cliff's backyard.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I never predicted that at all... and never really predicted anything beyond a 2-week window.

I said it felt a little like 2015 at one point... and it did.   But that is not a forecast that it will be just like 2015 for the rest of the summer.

Down here would be a significant cooldown if Aug 2015 repeated.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 hours ago, sand dune said:

Spokane, since June 1st, has recorded 23 90+ highs through 7/13. Spokane Valley has recorded 27 90+ highs since June 1st and is on a 23 day streak through 7/13.

Up to 28 days over 90 for the year, and today ends the stretch at 21 (if tomorrow is <90).

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

79 here... and only 70 at SEA.  

It takes a perfect balance for it to be warmer out here than at SEA pretty much every day for a month straight.    The normal high here in the summer is about the same as SEA so it's really unusual for it to be this consistently warmer out here.

Looks like SEA, OLM, and BLI all underperformed relative to forecast today. BLI didn't even make it out of the 60s.

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like SEA, OLM, and BLI all underperformed relative to forecast today. BLI didn't even make it out of the 60s.

Lots of overperforming temps down in the state you don’t consider part of the region, though. PDX hit 83, most forecasts had them around 80.

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35 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Up to 28 days over 90 for the year, and today ends the stretch at 21 (if tomorrow is <90).

Spokane Valley's streak will likely end on Friday. July has been hot. No doubt about it.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We have been very lucky over here.  The Pacific high has maintained enough influence to keep us pretty cool overall.  Even Kittitas County has benefitted greatly from the relentless onshore flow.  Going to be cooler for everyone tomorrow.

It should be cooler tomorrow. The haze has thinned significantly. Not looking too bad.

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15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like SEA, OLM, and BLI all underperformed relative to forecast today. BLI didn't even make it out of the 60s.

Wow, that's a pretty serious difference from the Eastside stations.

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