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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Down to 55 at SEA now.  That is noteworthy for them this early in the evening.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Cloudy and 55 this morning. Low clouds started to filter in around 11pm last night so a pretty thick marine layer. Hopefully we will manage to score our first below average days in about a month today and tomorrow.

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Down to 55 at SEA now.  That is noteworthy for them this early in the evening.

Guess it didn’t really mean much considering it stuck there most of the night? 😂 

Currently a cool 56F at home and still 55F at SEA. 

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9 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Guess it didn’t really mean much considering it stuck there most of the night? 😂 

Currently a cool 56F at home and still 55F at SEA. 

Yea that was a swing and a miss on his part. Low of 55 this morning too. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Today will likely end up pretty cool in the Seattle area... the ECMWF says the low clouds stick around in King County through the afternoon in a weak c-zone signature. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6390000.png

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Today will likely end up pretty cool in the Seattle area... the ECMWF says the low clouds stick around in King County through the afternoon in a weak c-zone signature. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6390000.png

Noticed this so I’m gonna guess a couple degrees cooler. Yesterday ended up being a below average day and a high of only 74. I’m guessing 71-72F today. 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Already looks likely to bust warm on several upcoming days.

When?   Tomorrow looks about right and Saturday onward will be sunny.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Thankful for onshore flow... check out that smoke plume heading into Idaho.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-truecolor-14_31Z-20210715_map_-23-1n-10-100.gif

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At this point, today, tomorrow and Sunday all look like likely candidates.

I agree with today due to the low level inversion. 

The trough provides mixing tomorrow and then its basically sunny over the weekend... so I would not count on an inversion then.

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree with today due to the low level inversion. 

The trough provides mixing tomorrow and then its basically sunny over the weekend... so I would not count on an inversion then.

 

FWIW, tomorrow could bust for the Euro too.

NWS calls for a high of only 68 tomorrow for SEA. Their forecast looks on point for today. 
 

 

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

FWIW, tomorrow could bust for the Euro too.

NWS calls for a high of only 68 tomorrow. Their forecast looks on point for today. 
 

 

Tomorrow is a wild card... the mixing will break the inversion but also bring clouds and even some showers so it comes down to timing on sun breaks.     Low 70s is certainly possible but if there are no sun breaks then upper 60s is probably the warmest we can muster.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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59F and mostly cloudy. Looks like we got down to 54F. Very pleasant.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree with today due to the low level inversion. 

The trough provides mixing tomorrow and then its basically sunny over the weekend... so I would not count on an inversion then.

 

You don't have to have an inversion for it to be below 80 and sunny.

And tomorrow could easily stay in the upper 60s if it is mostly cloudy. That's what the NWS is forecasting for Seattle.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You don't have to have an inversion for it to be below 80 and sunny.

And tomorrow could easily stay in the upper 60s if it is mostly cloudy. That's what the NWS is forecasting for Seattle.

I said the same thing about tomorrow.

But I do think the weekend temps will be close.    The ECMWF shows no low clouds anywhere on Sunday and 850mb temps a little warmer than normal.   That should mean surface temps in Seattle can reach their full potential which is probably around 80. 

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6652800 (2).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Went to Pamelia Lake, one of the few, as of now, unburned places in the Mt. Jefferson Wilderness. Nice easy hike. My 4 year old made it up and back easily. 

No description available.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Already getting some filtered sunshine through the clouds so there might be some breakage in the marine layer. If this is the case, it’s probably going to end up a little bit warmer than forecast. Up to 57F.

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52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I said the same thing about tomorrow.

But I do think the weekend temps will be close.    The ECMWF shows no low clouds anywhere on Sunday and 850mb temps a little warmer than normal.   That should mean surface temps in Seattle can reach their full potential which is probably around 80. 

🤔

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_5.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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This thread is setting the record for comments about non-existent troughing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Getting some sun breaks through the clouds. Should be a pretty sunny afternoon down here.

Today and tomorrow may be SLE's only shot at a sub 80 high this month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

non-existent ridging

We've had a death ridge for 8 years now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Today and tomorrow may be SLE's only shot at a sub 80 high this month. 

Want to wager on that?

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41 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

🤔

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_5.png

Not sure what to tell you... but I trust WB more.   Here is Sunday per the ECMWF and GFS:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6652800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6652800 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty much.

Only 3 days out of the next 12 are ridgy on the 12z GFS.

My area has been warmer than normal continuously for the last month.   That does not happen with troughing.     And we sure are playing up troughing which is likely to be centered offshore.    There is a huge difference between that when its centered inland over the PNW.   

 

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30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This thread is setting the record for comments about non-existent troughing. 

Just because it's not squarely over the Willamette Valley does not mean there is no trough. 

There's obviously one hanging out pretty close for the foreseeable future.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Today is one month to the date since SLE had their last below average day. COULD do it today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2nd half of the month could end up close to normal. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS is a combo of 1954 and 1955... with some 1964 mixed in.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6307200.png

Any 1955 analog could turn into a pretty snowy winter here. 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The drizzle/mist from earlier was not enough to register in the rain gauge so we are on to day 29 of 0.00 readings.

It will be interesting to see if we will get enough to break that streak tomorrow.

Same with the North Bend station... its been wet this morning but did not register in the gauge.   

The last measurable in North Bend was exactly one month ago today which is the day that there was some thunderstorm activity with that big trough lifting out.    There was a couple distant rumbles of thunder here that day.  

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44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Today is one month to the date since SLE had their last below average day. COULD do it today. 

It's been one month since I had an AVERAGE high. 🤣😱

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Getting a few sunbreaks now in Salem. 

I sense a front, mid, and backloaded winter. But we'll have to wait to see what kind of load gets dumped. It might just be sh it!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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