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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Dunno but an all time record heatwave that literally killed hundreds of people in the region would probably trump it.

Exactly. Winter events are different than summer events - you're making a false equivalency there.

One week of snowfall makes a "great" winter for weather weenies, but that's not comparable to looking at how a summer stacks up historically with heat events.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I said pace. Meaning where we're at now compared to where the summer ended up. And OLM had seven 85+ days through 7/12/2018 (when they hit 90). They are not hitting 85 today

2009 and 2018 had a big surge in both 85+ and 90+ days in July. That's looking highly unlikely at this point. 2018 added four more 85+ days from 7/13 - 7/16, and two more 90+ days. And then a crap ton more the last 10 days of the month.

But yes, it's still early...

Nope. Through this point in 2018, it was 6 vs. 9.

Late July through mid August is the hottest point of the year. There is no telling how warm that period will be yet. But it's been a hot summer there and everywhere else in the region. It's pretty obvious that you're either downplaying what has already happened or overselling the likelihood of the coming period being a substantial relief. Probably doing a bit of both.

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Let's take a look back at this date in 2009. Looks like SLE had a 66/56 day with 0.68" of rain. I remember that very well. About as soaking a rain as you will ever see here in July. Between 1892-2005 SLE never recorded rain on July 12th. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Exactly. Winter events are different than summer events - you're making a false equivalency there.

One week of snowfall makes a "great" winter for weather weenies, but that's not comparable to looking at how a summer stacks up historically with heat events.

Subjective nonsense. For people who fetishize heatwaves the way we fetishize snowstorms, a historic heatwave would absolutely make for a "great" summer here. Assuming said people existed, a summer like 1981, 1977, or 1941 would be seen as epic even though the rest of those summers lacked much high end heat.

And that's well beside the point since we already have the hottest or 2nd hottest June on record regionally in the books. If we had just seen the coldest December on record with all time record lows then you can absolutely bet that people would be pounding the great winter drum regardless of how things went afterwards.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nope. Through this point in 2018, it was 6 vs. 9.

Late July through mid August is the hottest point of the year. There is no telling how warm that period will be yet. But it's been a hot summer there and everywhere else in the region. It's pretty obvious that you're either downplaying what has already happened or overselling the likelihood of the coming period being a substantial relief. Probably doing a bit of both.

Back at the end of June, I said it was very likely that July would not see a continuation of the heat seen in June. Cooler anomalies, regardless of what the models were showing. That just because there had been an extreme heat event did not mean the rest of the summer was a lock to be hot - 2015 on roids!!! - as quite a few posters seemed to think at the time.

It's clear that will be the case through the first three weeks of July, for most places. From there, we'll see.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Subjective nonsense. For people who fetishize heatwaves the way we fetishize snowstorms, a historic heatwave would absolutely make for a "great" summer here. Assuming said people existed, a summer like 1981, 1977, or 1941 would be seen as epic even though the rest of those summers lacked much high end heat.

And that's well beside the point since we already have the hottest or 2nd hottest June on record regionally in the books. If we had just seen the coldest December on record with all time record lows then you can absolutely bet that people would be pounding the great winter drum regardless of how things went afterwards.

Except I wasn't talking about whether this was a great "weenie summer" or not. I'm talking about whether the stats will show it was a summer with consistent heat like 1958, 2009, 2015, or 2018. The true high end hot summers - not just summers that had a high end event.

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

May very well have been a 1 in 1000 year type event for some places, even with our warming climate.

Similar events almost certainly occurred in the Medieval years. Soot layers are evident in boreholes across North America. Not to mention dune mobilization, evidenced via grassed-over hills today across the Plains.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Back at the end of June, I said it was very likely that July would not see a continuation of the heat seen in June. Cooler anomalies, regardless of what the models were showing. That just because there had been an extreme heat event did not mean the rest of the summer was a lock to be hot - 2015 on roids!!! - as quite a few posters seemed to think at the time.

It's clear that will be the case through the first three weeks of July, for most places. From there, we'll see.

Actually judging from the first half of the month anomalies, you weren't correct whatsoever.

But good on you for foreseeing an end to the 115+ stuff. It was a tough call.

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Will be fascinating to watch the battle between the NE Pacific high and the 4CH over the next couple weeks. Somewhere in between will be troughing, potentially unseasonably deep at times.

If it ends up offshore, the PNW could heat up again. If it ends up over the PNW, could be a game changer for the summer.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Except I wasn't talking about whether this was a great "weenie summer" or not. I'm talking about whether the stats will show it was a summer with consistent heat like 1958, 2009, 2015, or 2018. The true high end hot summers - not just summers that had a high end event.

And that's where your extreme cherry-picking comes in to play. For many spots in the region, it has already been that. 

Looking at a spot like Salem, it's just laughable. They have 18 days of 90+ right now versus 4 days at this point in a "high end" year like 2009. There's no comparison.

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28 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not sure if it was posted here or not, I don’t read every page, but I think Yale university wrote an article about it being the most anomalous heat wave ever recorded on earth. 

Sounds interesting. You should post it.

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25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

May very well have been a 1 in 1000 year type event for some places, even with our warming climate.

The impact on vegetation tells that story pretty clearly. I am continually amazed how widespread it is. 

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Just now, Jesse said:

The impact on vegetation tells that story pretty clearly. I am continually amazed how widespread it is. 

Driving north on I-5 into Vancouver is the worst I've seen it.  The fir trees are just red/orange.  Even the low growing/invasive ivy is dead and brown.  Of course the timing of the event at the very beginning of our dry season just means no real green-up until the fall rains.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Actually judging from the first half of the month anomalies, you weren't correct whatsoever.

There hasn't been anything close to real heat in July. OLM saw 8 85+ days in June...they won't have any through the first 3 weeks of July.

And most places are in fact running a cooler monthly anomaly than June. And that will drop further by a week from now.

 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Similar events almost certainly occurred in the Medieval years. Soot layers are evident in boreholes across North America. Not to mention dune mobilization, evidenced via grassed-over hills today across the Plains.

Not sure if it’s part of the Yale write up, but I’ve heard that it’s being tossed around that it was a 1 in 150,000 year event.😬

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And that's where your extreme cherry-picking comes in to play. For many spots in the region, it has already been that. 

Looking at a spot like Salem, it's just laughable. They have 18 days of 90+ right now versus 4 days at this point in a "high end" year like 2009. There's no comparison.

I have always regularly used OLM as my go to station to reference. That's common knowledge.

Is that SLE for you? Because I don't recall that.

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Similar events almost certainly occurred in the Medieval years. Soot layers are evident in boreholes across North America. Not to mention dune mobilization, evidenced via grassed-over hills today across the Plains.

Possible, but that's still 500+ years back.

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3 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Driving north on I-5 into Vancouver is the worst I've seen it.  The fir trees are just red/orange.  Even the low growing/invasive ivy is dead and brown.  Of course the timing of the event at the very beginning of our dry season just means no real green-up until the fall rains.

It’s pretty crazy looking on the west facing embankments around Fourth Plain.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

I have always regularly used OLM as my go to station to reference.

Is that SLE for you? Because I don't recall that.

We know. You cherry-pick and then make largely fallacious and/or disingenuous arguments off of an extremely narrow view of things. I'm glad you're basically coming clean here. But it does make it kind of hard to have a balanced discussion.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We know. You cherry-pick and then make largely fallacious and/or disingenuous arguments off of an extremely narrow view of things. I'm glad you're basically coming clean here. But it does make it kind of hard to have a balanced discussion.

So I always cherry-pick OLM? Might want to look up "cherry-pick". Hint: it doesn't mean what you seem to think it means.

Meanwhile, I'm sure your choice of SLE was completely balanced and random.

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12 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Driving north on I-5 into Vancouver is the worst I've seen it.  The fir trees are just red/orange.  Even the low growing/invasive ivy is dead and brown.  Of course the timing of the event at the very beginning of our dry season just means no real green-up until the fall rains.

I don’t know if the fall “green up?” 🤨 will do a whole lot. Like I said we won’t know the true toll until this spring. At that point we will have a good idea of what will come back for another season and what will just stay dead.

I fear a lot of things just might not come back at all considered the awful timing of the event following a record dry spring and hitting at a point where many plants and trees were already at the pinnacle of heat/drought stress after the last several years. Could change the look of the region pretty noticeably.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There have been a few others (TacomaWx, etc) and I really can’t blame them.

There’s really no other place to discuss in detail the PNW climate is the main reason I’ve stayed. Im a weather nerd when it comes to the PNW and I need other people just as interested as I am to understand and discuss stuff with and there’s nowhere else online. I do like pretty much everyone on here even if I disagree with some of what’s said. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Will be fascinating to watch the battle between the NE Pacific high and the 4CH over the next couple weeks. Somewhere in between will be troughing, potentially unseasonably deep at times.

If it ends up offshore, the PNW could heat up again. If it ends up over the PNW, could be a game changer for the summer.

The upcoming pattern is more similar to what I’d originally envisioned the dominant summer pattern to be. Large 4CH and GOA/Aleutian High with the intermountain west/SW and possibly much of the CONUS roasting, with the exception of the westside PNW and New England.

I’m still watching the second half of August for another PNW heatwave. Until then it looks tame, possibly cool at times? 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s really no other place to discuss in detail the PNW climate is the main reason I’ve stayed. Im a weather nerd when it comes to the PNW and I need other people just as interested as I am to understand and discuss stuff with and there’s nowhere else online. I do like pretty much everyone on here even if I disagree with some of what’s said. 

Similar sentiment here (with a few well deserved exceptions) Glad you decided to come back.

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not sure if it’s part of the Yale write up, but I’ve heard that it’s being tossed around that it was a 1 in 150,000 year event.😬

Good grief. These people never quit.

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FWIW... the 12Z GFS and 12Z GEFS backed off on the troughing.

The 12Z GEFS shows the colder than normal 850mb temps only lasting through Saturday now... which is more like the EPS.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s really no other place to discuss in detail the PNW climate is the main reason I’ve stayed. Im a weather nerd when it comes to the PNW and I need other people just as interested as I am to understand and discuss stuff with and there’s nowhere else online. I do like pretty much everyone on here even if I disagree with some of what’s said. 

Don’t even live there and I’m interested.

I first joined the forums back in 2009 as a troll. Within a couple of years I had genuinely become enamored with the nature of the climate up there. I just couldn’t figure out a way to admit to some of the lies I’d told until Fred did it for me. 😬

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

The upcoming pattern is more similar to what I’d originally envisioned the dominant summer pattern to be. Large 4CH and GOA/Aleutian High with the intermountain west/SW and possibly much of the CONUS roasting, with the exception of the westside PNW and New England.

I’m still watching the second half of August for another PNW heatwave. Until then it looks tame, possibly cool at times? 

Bold call.   So a couple days sprinkled in with slightly below normal temps would be considered "cool at times" even with a warm background.    That is an easy call because a couple days this week will likely be cooler than normal.   But that does not mean there is any big pattern change ahead and it will likely stay generally warm overall.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GFS and 12Z GEFS backed off on the troughing.

The 12Z GEFS shows the colder than normal 850mb temps only lasting through Saturday now... which is more like the EPS.

 

Of all this hills to die on, you choose this one?

You came out of late June/early July with a massive W, but much like I have in the past, you’re getting sucked in and may end up taking an L instead.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

So I always cherry-pick OLM? Might want to look up "cherry-pick". Hint: it doesn't mean what you seem to think it means.

Meanwhile, I'm sure your choice of SLE was completely balanced and random.

At Pendleton, 2009 had nine days of 90+ versus 26 so far this year.

At Spokane, 2009 had four days of 90+ versus 21 so far this year.

At Roseburg, 2009 had three days of 90+ versus 20 so far this year.

At SEA, 2009 had 12 days of 80+ versus 16 so far this year.

Seems like the regional numbers tell a similar story.

If you made a better faith effort then I don't think people would call you out so much, but alas you've always kind of done this extreme devil's advocate thing.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Ssshh. There's a narrative to uphold.

You’re on your own on that one. Your frothy write-ups about the much revered 2006-13 period make your last few weeks here look like some serious hackery.

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Just now, Phil said:

Of all this hills to die on, you choose this one?

You came out of late June/early July with a massive W, but much like I have in the past, you’re getting sucked in and may end up taking an L instead.

For the record... you are predicting that colder than normal 850mb temps will dominate the next 2 weeks (second half of July) and I am wrong basing my thoughts on the EPS? 

I just want to make sure.👍

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Bold call.   So a couple days sprinkled in with slightly below normal temps would be considered "cool at times" even with a warm background.    That is an easy call because a couple days this week will likely be cooler than normal.   But that does not mean there is any big pattern change ahead and it will likely stay generally warm overall.

Whatever gets you through the night, brother. 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

The upcoming pattern is more similar to what I’d originally envisioned the dominant summer pattern to be. Large 4CH and GOA/Aleutian High with the intermountain west/SW and possibly much of the CONUS roasting, with the exception of the westside PNW and New England.

I’m still watching the second half of August for another PNW heatwave. Until then it looks tame, possibly cool at times? 

GEFS shows 850s remaining below normal for the western lowlands into the last week of July.

gfs-ens_T850a_wus_52.thumb.png.ca6bb550340cc4d248a5c4a751137c46.png

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