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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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78/55 here. Marine layer was pretty weak today and it warmed quickly when it burned off early afternoon. PDX invariably hit 80.

Hoping we can score one coolish day tomorrow before things start warming up again.

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14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

High of 65 at BLI today. 8 degrees below normal.

High temp of 69 here was 6 degrees below normal. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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SEA came in with a sub-70 high at 69...  breaking the streak of 70+ days.

There were 4 days with highs below 70 last July... and also 4 in 2019 (including a high of 62).

Likely going to add another one tomorrow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Had any earlier than expected cloud deck breakup today. About 73° was the high. Hoping to score some drizzle or a light shower tomorrow.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA came in with a sub-70 high at 69...  breaking the streak of 70+ days.

There were 4 days with highs below 70 last July... and also 4 in 2019 (including a high of 62).

Likely going to add another one tomorrow.

See, this is why I trust Wunderground a lot. In one of my previous post as a response to your post I mentioned that as the day went on Wunderground moved the daytime high for SEA around for a quite a bit and settled for a high of 69 at around 3PM after initially calling it for about 72 earlier in the morning. Obviously it looked like it was taking the marine influence into account.  Look like it nailed it. 

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6 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

See, this is why I trust Wunderground a lot. In one of my previous post as a response to your post I mentioned that as the day went on Wunderground moved the daytime high for SEA around for a quite a bit and settled for a high of 69 at around 3PM after initially calling it for about 72 earlier in the morning. Obviously it looked like it was taking the marine influence into account.  Look like it nailed it. 

Fun fact, Apple devices will not show a temp of 69 at all 🤣🤣🤣🤣!!!

https://nypost.com/2021/07/14/apple-weather-app-wont-show-the-temperature-as-69-degrees/

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00z GFS is a gem (not the GEM, lol) for points Portland north. Lots of marine influence and subtle troughs reinforcing the inversions, some warm days mixed in.

Unfortunately, not much rain, and the Willamette Valley continues to bake.

 

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS is a gem (not the GEM, lol) for points Portland north. Lots of marine influence and subtle troughs reinforcing the inversions, some warm days mixed in.

Unfortunately, not much rain, and the Willamette Valley continues to bake.

 

Beautiful run for PNW region.

That GOA ridge in the drunk clown range. 😍

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2015 on performance enhancing drugs.

lol 2015 had 2 sub 70 days in July and 3 in august here in Tacoma. Not really a huge anomaly. I think we had 12 sub 70 days in July 2020 and 10 in July 2019. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

lol 2015 had 2 sub 70 days in July and 3 in august here in Tacoma. Not really a huge anomaly. I think we had 12 sub 70 days in July 2020 and 10 in July 2019. 

Sure. Compare monthly temps and 2021 is falling way behind 2015 most places. And 2018.

Different kind of summer.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Sure. Compare monthly temps and 2021 is falling way behind 2015 most places. And 2018.

Different kind of summer.

We will see just like everyone’s said second half just started today. It’d be nice we we stayed in the 68-80 degree max range for the rest of the summer…but this pattern will probably give way to heat eventually. Wouldn’t take too much warmth to be a top 5 still. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will see just like everyone’s said second half just started today. It’d be nice we we stayed in the 68-80 degree max range for the rest of the summer…but this pattern will probably give way to heat eventually. Wouldn’t take too much warmth to be a top 5 still. 

I’m very confident this summer won’t match 2015’s numbers. That was just insane. SEA that year had 12 days of 90+ And a ton load of 85+ Days. 

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7 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I’m very confident this summer won’t match 2015’s numbers. That was just insane. SEA that year had 12 days of 90+ And a ton load of 85+ Days. 

The 2015 comparisons were just silly.

That was a super niño inception year..in fact it was the strongest niño since the 1870s. How anyone could justify that as an analog is beyond me.

 

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21 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I’m very confident this summer won’t match 2015’s numbers. That was just insane. SEA that year had 12 days of 90+ And a ton load of 85+ Days. 

Of course it’s not going to here in the Seattle area. There’s other parts of the PNW that have a good shot at it though. I’m pretty sure I said a couple weeks ago after the heatwave that this summer would blow past 2015 not in total seriousness. It has been a pretty warm summer though. Would take a lot of consistent heat to beat 2015.  Top 5 seems pretty reasonable to me since we’re likely bound for a couple more stretches of warm weather. I could see some places in Oregon and eastern Washington surpassing 2015 just with the heat in the first half of the summer giving them such a head start. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

With the strong sea breeze, it felt very San Francisco-ish.

My new office is right by the airport, had to go in for a few hours today and its amazing the difference in the winds there vs. my house.  I know its somewhat obvious given the terrain there vs. my house, but still, they are a little less than 5 miles apart as the crow flies.  That said, it did get pretty breezy here last night!

 

Looks like I pulled off a 72/55 here at the house, with the winds picking back up this evening.  In fact I went out to turn off the sprinkler and froze my a** off between the 64 degree temp and the wind.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2015 comparisons were just silly.

That was a super niño inception year..in fact it was the strongest niño since the 1870s. How anyone could justify that as an analog is beyond me.

 

It's been like 2015 over here in Eastern Washington. 2015 isn't an analog, but the sensible weather matches.

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11 minutes ago, sand dune said:

It's been like 2015 over here in Eastern Washington.

For the majority of the region it has been. And it’s still been above normal too here in the exception area Seattle. But to some people Seattle really only matters to them in terms of the PNW. “It hasn’t been that hot in the Puget sound area so it hasn’t been a hot summer in the PNW”. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

For the majority of the region it has been. And it’s still been above normal too here in the exception area Seattle. But to some people Seattle really only matters to them in terms of the PNW. “It hasn’t been that hot in the Puget sound area so it hasn’t been a hot summer in the PNW”. 

That's about right.

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Fantasy 06z has a beautiful trough swinging through WA. Snowfall in the northern cascades and thickness values well below 552. Not nearly enough of an order of magnitude to offset this summer's accumulated heat, but it's a good start to an attempt? Maybe, IDK....... Either way it likely won't end up resolving in that manner.

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00z EPS looks like it wants to retrograde the trough offshore around day 8-10, allowing the 4CH to build a little closer to us again.

Mostly cloudy with a low of 56 this morning. Would be nice to squeeze some drizzle out of this pattern.

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Another sunny morning here in the dome.

Looking at the visible satellite, almost all of western Washington is enveloped in sweet, sweet clouds while in Oregon it is limited to the coast and adjacent areas, the Columbia River basin, and eastern Portland metro area out to the Cascade foothills. This has been an ongoing theme.

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Low of 56 this morning. Just can’t manage below normal low temps at all this month. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not bad.

 

45B1A737-37FE-4548-A978-3B007F8D3BD4.png

 

Posting GEM guidance now?    😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will see just like everyone’s said second half just started today. It’d be nice we we stayed in the 68-80 degree max range for the rest of the summer…but this pattern will probably give way to heat eventually. Wouldn’t take too much warmth to be a top 5 still. 

I'm sure there will be some more heat at some point. But the odds of July ending up hot like some of the recent scorchers is rapidly dwindling.

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1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Another sunny morning here in the dome.

Looking at the visible satellite, almost all of western Washington is enveloped in sweet, sweet clouds while in Oregon it is limited to the coast and adjacent areas, the Columbia River basin, and eastern Portland metro area out to the Cascade foothills. This has been an ongoing theme.

Those clouds are already breaking up here. Actually, that has been a theme, too: Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland have been much less cloudy than points south in the past several weeks. Sunny, breezy, and cool has been the overall theme so far this month here.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Those clouds are already breaking up here. Actually, that has been a theme, too: Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland have been much less cloudy than points south in the past several weeks. Sunny, breezy, and cool has been the overall theme so far this month here.

The area with the most low clouds overall this month has been from HQM to SEA.   Persistent pattern.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Posting GEM guidance now?    😁

GEM performs better than the GFS. In fact it was more accurate than the EPS for 2m temps over the last 10 days.

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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm sure there will be some more heat at some point. But the odds of July ending up hot like some of the recent scorchers is rapidly dwindling.

July will not be hot. Might even end up cool in some areas.

Am worried about mid/late August, though.

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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm sure there will be some more heat at some point. But the odds of July ending up hot like some of the recent scorchers is rapidly dwindling.

If we are just talking about SEA ok. But if we are talking about 80% of the PNW you are just dead wrong. The Willamette Valley, Umpqua Basin, Rogue Basin, and everywhere east of the Cascades are torching to historic levels. Yesterday SLE had marine clouds until around 11am and still hit 81. Today was supposed to be the big marine push today and I was shocked to wake up to severe clear. They should easily top 80 again. Remember July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. After today it is mid-upper 80s the rest of the month. The sustained warmth has just been absolutely incredible. 

Did pull off a -2 departure yesterday at least. Even if we don't beat July 2015, it won't take much in August to beat that summer given where June ended up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

GEM performs better than the GFS. In fact it was more accurate than the EPS for 2m temps over the last 10 days.

Yeah... and swings wildly with the 500mb pattern from run to run.    👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

July will not be hot. Might even end up cool in some areas.

Am worried about mid/late August, though.

Will not be hot in Seattle. Already pretty much locked up a warm month everywhere else. 

Through the first half of the month SLE is only running -0.3F behind July 2015 and ahead of every other month in their 130 year period of record. 

No extreme heat this month, just extremely consistent warmth. 

If  you take the NWS forecast for the next 7 days verbatim they will be on pace for the 4th warmest July through the 22nd. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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