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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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11 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Our sunset was at 8:41 pm. We're at roughly the same latitude but farther east. The sun comes up earlier here, but it goes down earlier.

Nome’s sunrise is about the same as Seattle, but it won’t set again until mid 1am. Roughly 4h30m of darkness. 

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6 minutes ago, Link said:

No Snow Wizard the last few days.  Guess the models are not spitting enough insane figures for him even though WA is having no heat waves.

I think he’s found something else to occupy his time… for now. If he were interested, I’m sure he could find a cool model run or two and hype it up into the coolest finish to summer since 19whatever being basically a lock.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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87/52. Another warm and beautiful day.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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24 minutes ago, Link said:

No Snow Wizard the last few days.  Guess the models are not spitting enough insane figures for him even though WA is having no heat waves.

Jim comes and goes. His current absence has nothing to do with the models, figure he’s taking a mental break from the forums.

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29 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Jim comes and goes. His current absence has nothing to do with the models, figure he’s taking a mental break from the forums.

Yeah... I don't think he ever feels down about the models now no matter what they show.   Everything is always amazing.  

And there is really nothing hot in the models right now so that is not why he is taking a break.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I don't think he ever feels down about the models now no matter what they show.   Everything is always amazing.  

And there is really nothing hot in the models right now so that is not why he is taking a break.

What I'm saying is as soon as something silly comes in clown range he will  have something funny to chime. I heard you say it several days a go yourself that Snow seems to be mostly interested in extreme cold range. I do love his ocean statements though about conditions going on.

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

When did you move?

Before the pandemic hit. Looking to move back to the Eastside though. Looking for a change in job right now given things are getting back to normal.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Let's get this summer tf over with

That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! 

This summer has morphed into being very pleasant.   We have the best weather in the country now.   I hope it takes its sweet time.  :)

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58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! 

This summer has morphed into being very pleasant.   We have the best weather in the country now.   I hope it takes its sweet time.  :)

Every day has been 70-82 degrees with varying degrees of morning clouds and sunshine here since the heatwave. Hard to complain about that besides how dry it’s been. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like most places should be starting out with sun today. Glad all that nasty smoke is going the opposite direction.

1218018993_COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.truecolor.20210718.133617-overmap-bars.gif

The ECMWF has come around to the idea of the marine layer sticking around on Tuesday into Wednesday now with the trough being farther east.  

It now shows Tuesday being very similar to last Thursday with the marine layer focused on the central Sound all day.   Obviously that will keep the smoke moving away from us as well.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6811200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This MJO/CCKW crossing the Pacific has kind of snuck up in the EPS mean. It is something that may lend credence to the warmer week-2 solutions (lag incorporated).

But there’s subsidence on its tail, so not a pattern that’d be favored to persist.

9AF36F73-63E4-4194-AA1B-3D260468034C.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Suspect the EPS is closer to reality than the GEFS but this will be interesting to follow either way.

 

 

 Suspect we're about to start completely torching again and won't see any rain for many more weeks to come, but it will be annoying to follow either way!

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41 minutes ago, Phil said:

This MJO/CCKW crossing the Pacific has kind of snuck up in the EPS mean. It is something that may lend credence to the warmer week-2 solutions (lag incorporated).

But there’s subsidence on its tail, so not a pattern that’d be favored to persist.

9AF36F73-63E4-4194-AA1B-3D260468034C.jpeg

But the 4CH is progged to be decimated in week two?

Conflicting long-distance reports!!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

But the 4CH is progged to be decimated in week two?

Conflicting long-distance reports!!

Just one variable. But have learned to never rule out a warm up when the west-Pacific lights up. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen though..this looks like a pretty shallow/fast moving wave.

Probably won’t stick around long either way.

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Ominous signs for the hurricane season though. Upper level divergence returns to IO/Atlantic sector in August, right when climo gets hairy.

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25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just one variable. But have learned to never rule out a warm up when the west-Pacific lights up. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen though..this looks like a pretty shallow/fast moving wave.

Probably won’t stick around long either way.

Climo at this point strongly points toward some manner of a heat spike late this month or early in August. Just based on the fact we’re entering the hottest part of the year and we’ve seen such a muted run of 500mb progressions so far this month. And chances are it won’t last forever. (See WUACD inverse)

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just one variable. But have learned to never rule out a warm up when the west-Pacific lights up. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen though..this looks like a pretty shallow/fast moving wave.

Probably won’t stick around long either way.

In Washington and maybe PDX. Down here on the other hand...

The airport has been running at least 2 degrees cooler than the Springfield, Thurston, Creswell, Dexter-Lowell, & Cottage Grove areas plus the south Eugene area near and around campus PWS.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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66 here and totally sunny. Probably upper 70s here this afternoon. Looks like we’re back to normal-above normal after those 2 cool days. This month hasn’t had much heat or coolness just been consistently near or above normal. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Climo at this point strongly points toward some manner of a heat spike late this month or early in August. Just based on the fact we’re entering the hottest part of the year and we’ve seen such a muted run of 500mb progressions so far this month. And chances are it won’t last forever. (See WUACD inverse)

Yeah I’d imagine we will be seeing a heat spike late in the month showing up soon on the models. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

66 here and totally sunny. Probably upper 70s here this afternoon. Looks like we’re back to normal-above normal after those 2 cool days. This month hasn’t had much heat or coolness just been consistently near or above normal. 

Looks like Tue-Thu will be below normal many places.

A forum for the end of the world.

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! 

This summer has morphed into being very pleasant.   We have the best weather in the country now.   I hope it takes its sweet time.  :)

An actually cold/wet Dec-Jan would be nice. Really anything but the endless SW flow torching we’ve had the last three Dec-Jans.

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17 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

An actually cold/wet Dec-Jan would be nice. Really anything but the endless SW flow torching we’ve had the last three Dec-Jans.

Feels like 16-17 was the last time that happened here. It's also the last winter in which this location experienced a sub-freezing high. It was actually above freezing at times during 2-25-19.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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18 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

An actually cold/wet Dec-Jan would be nice. Really anything but the endless SW flow torching we’ve had the last three Dec-Jans.

A cold and snowy December would be awesome... and then have spring actually start in February instead of waiting until then for winter to start.  

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4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like most places should be starting out with sun today. Glad all that nasty smoke is going the opposite direction.

1218018993_COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.truecolor.20210718.133617-overmap-bars.gif

It’s terrible up in the methow right now. Three fires nearby and it’s just clogging up the whole valley before it can get carried away.51675C9F-1016-4A6A-9464-3B04C060DC34.thumb.png.98214460c1d03228d3b8c0fca93d9d6d.png

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Feels like 16-17 was the last time that happened here. It's also the last winter in which this location experienced a sub-freezing high. It was actually above freezing at times during 2-25-19.

Yeah I don’t think we’re gonna see another winter of that caliber (16-17) for another 10-15 years. But if we can get a good amount of cold NW flow that’s good enough for me, since I go up into the Cascades often and that usually translates to epic weather and conditions there.

And yeah Valentine’s Day 2021 was epic, but it would be very nice to see something in early to mid winter now after almost nothing in that timeframe since 16-17.

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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! 

This summer has morphed into being very pleasant.   We have the best weather in the country now.   I hope it takes its sweet time.  :)

Why rush a good thing? 

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Speaking of which, here are my predictions for the Springfield area for this coming active weather season:

August: Hot, dry

September: Hot then devastating fires

October: Cold & frosty especially at the end of the month (coldest temps of the season), mostly dry.

November: Warm & wet

December: Warm, dry

January: Record warm, dry

February: Warm, dry

March: Cooler, dry

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am ready for winter.

Should be a good one in the Cascades & Salem north.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Today will be TWO MINUTES SHORTER than yesterday, and will feature a pre-9:00pm sunset. Two benchmarks in one day. Only downhill from here! 😛🤙

August 1st will feature the first sub 60º sun angle and under 15 hours of light.

August 11th and we have a sunset before 8:30, effectively ending BBQ twilight after 9:30

August 18th brings us under 55º which is a Pennsylvania autumn.

August 21st we are under 14 hours of light.

August 30th and we are at 50º, an angle where color temps start to take on a touch of yellow at solar noon.

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75 and sunny here now. 

Getting ready for another afternoon on Lake Sammamish... should be perfect in the low 80s.   👌

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s terrible up in the methow right now. Three fires nearby and it’s just clogging up the whole valley before it can get carried away.51675C9F-1016-4A6A-9464-3B04C060DC34.thumb.png.98214460c1d03228d3b8c0fca93d9d6d.png

Ugghhh.

Was just checking Lake Chelan web cams and it looks beautiful there... no smoke at all.     

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12Z EPS through day 12... showing retrogression next week.   But the troughing in the middle of this week and early next week definitely keeps things reasonable for the next 8 or 9 days.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626609600-1626609600-1627603200-10.gif

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Diurnal winds kicked up and have started to clear things out a bit thankfully. F6A98260-0A5A-4F8D-B188-DDBCC5C221FF.thumb.png.23b5a5cc7c073c8a5fd19aed37da02df.png

Big change!

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2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

An actually cold/wet Dec-Jan would be nice. Really anything but the endless SW flow torching we’ve had the last three Dec-Jans.

A November firehose would be nice. The Puget Sound has had some fairly wet ones in recent years but it's been a long time since we've had one down here, and they often portend good things later on.

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