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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Definite north/south gradient to the anomalies from day 3 on with the Euro.

12Z EPS for SEA and PDX... consistent pattern.     

And no marine layer days in sight after today.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6868800.jpg

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-6868800.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Impossible. The EPS had warm 850mb temps.

SEA is bit odd now... generally warm month so far and about to get warmer. 

 

anomimage (11).png

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WFO SEA is at +2.3 for the month so far... which is about what it is out here as well.   Definitely has not been a cool month.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Actually, the next two days will bring that down a bit more many places.

True. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

WFO SEA is at +2.3 for the month so far... which is about what it is out here as well.   Definitely has not been a cool month.

Certainly cooler further west and closer to the water.

OLM will be around +.7 after today. BLI +1.9. And places at the coast are generally in the 0 to +1 range.

A forum for the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Actually, the next two days will bring that down a bit more many places.

Far cry from those blood red EPS maps we’ve seen posted for the last month.

As I said awhile back, there are correct and incorrect ways to interpret an ensemble mean.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Certainly cooler further west and closer to the water.

OLM will be around +.7 after today. BLI +1.9. And places at the coast are generally in the 0 to +1 range.

+0.9 through yesterday here. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Far cry from those blood red EPS maps we’ve seen posted for the last month.

As I said awhile back, there are correct and incorrect ways to interpret an ensemble mean.

Actually... those EPS maps never showed red over us.     They were actually just a little warmer than normal.    And the 500mb pattern ended up more troughy over the last 10 days than was originally shown.    I have a feeling that will not be the case for the next 10-15 days.   But who knows?

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually... those EPS maps never showed red over us.     They were actually just a little warmer than normal.    And the 500mb pattern ended up more troughy over the last 10 days than was originally shown.    I have a feeling that will not be the case for the next 10-15 days.   But who knows?

That’s..not true at all.

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12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is the kind of weather Jim would be ecstatic for! Hope he’s doing alright. 

It’s really only SEA that’s running that cool though. Today will be below normal though does feel nice. While the other stations around the Seattle areas positive anomalies have come down it’s still been above average. Will probably be +0.7 or +0.8 after today here in Tacoma. BLI, OLM and WFO are still above normal but 1-2 degrees above normal is still not too bad. I’m sure august will make up for it. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s really only SEA that’s running that cool though. Today will be below normal though does feel nice. While the other stations around the Seattle areas positive anomalies have come down it’s still been above average. Will probably be +0.7 or +0.8 after today here in Tacoma. BLI, OLM and WFO are still above normal but 1-2 degrees above normal is still not too bad. I’m sure august will make up for it. 

The main takeaway is that July isn’t torching for W. Wa, which is what Jim was predicting. The rest of the month looks reasonable as well. Outside of SEA my area is also running warmer. So strange when SEA is the cool station. 
 

I’m thinking we’ll pay for this in August as I could see another heatwave for next month. 

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Nice to see the smoke scoured out of eastern WA as well with this trough...

 

236201064_CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW-02-22_26Z-20210721_counties-usstrd-ushw-usint-map_-40-1n-10-100(1).gif

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The main takeaway is that July isn’t torching for W. Wa, which is what Jim was predicting. The rest of the month looks reasonable as well. Outside of SEA my area is also running warmer. So strange when SEA is the cool station. 
 

I’m thinking we’ll pay for this in August as I could see another heatwave for next month. 

Yeah it’s definitely not been terrible this month despite it being warmer than normal in the Seattle area. SEA is a weird situation for sure. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Cloud deck was thinner today and it also cleared up a lot quicker. However, temps appears to run more or less the same. Currently up to 73 so we’ll probably run 2-3 warmer than yesterday 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Think the end of the month will be pretty hot.

Could save Portland north from what would otherwise be a boringly average-ish July.

Cause everyone know it has to be HOTTT or COLDDD, nothing in between.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Could save Portland north from what would otherwise be a boringly average-ish July.

Cause everyone know it has to be HOTTT or COLDDD, nothing in between.

The warmth has in fact been very real and persistent, in spite of a lack of high end heat this month. Pretty elementary level of nuance there.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice to see the smoke scoured out of eastern WA as well with this trough...

 

236201064_CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW-02-22_26Z-20210721_counties-usstrd-ushw-usint-map_-40-1n-10-100(1).gif

That is also just an incredibly cool scene.  Look at the clouds in the western portions of WA and Oregon and how they are HALTED by the mountains.  Very cool looking.  It kind of looks like running water.  The clouds coming in from the Pacific are neat to watch as well. 

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35 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Watching the expansion draft. So happy to see our stunning weather on display with nice blue skies. No smokes!! Just beautiful!

Just turned it on... looks beautiful! 

 

DRAFT.png

DRAFT2.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My wife made a comment this morning about how chilly it has been this month. I said yeah we have had mostly normal to below normal temps at home for July. 
Anyway, here is another lake pic! Was there around noon today. My redneck little temporary boat cover I put on last week when I thought it was going to rain last Friday looks absolutely amazing in this shot! 🥰
66/53 on the day. Looking forward to my day off on Friday to take the new boat on its maiden voyage and pull my old boat out of the water. I will not be using the red neck cover on the new boat. 

64 currently.

14B7F3CA-BD13-4503-871A-1A4A82F78B07.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

F9835BAF-16E4-4C57-AE85-86BE2A7B81A8.jpeg.6d383a4f8cf7f21c17d8d71b0e568d05.jpeg

Ontario this month looks like a southwestern city.

Stunning.  That 60° low on the 10th must've felt wonderful for those folks.

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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8 hours ago, Phil said:

West-Pacific is active right now. Similar to the early/middle part of June…and we know what happened afterwards.

Will this event produced a similar long wave response over the NPAC next month? Or will seasonality save the day?

I wish I could downvote this six thousand times.

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I wish I could downvote this six thousand times.

If there’s good news it’s that models seem to be latching onto a strong polar blocking regime late this month into early August. Basically the opposite of late June/early July.

Historically speaking, strong polar/greenland blocks don’t usually teleconnect to big heat in the PNW, particularly at this time of year.

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Really beautiful day here. 74/51 spread with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Enjoying it considering we are likely barreling toward another major heatwave to close out July due to the simple fact that the west Pacific exists and someone might have sneezed there at some point in the last 18 months.

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7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Seattle is dying.

For once your actually right on the money!  Komo News 2 years ago: 

And the one from 7 months ago ALSO Komo News.

Never mind not sure why that one is blocked. Guess it hits TO close to the truth.

 

  “The Fight for the Soul of Seattle” examines the role of Seattle’s City Council in allowing the situation to reach what many experts consider epidemic levels under the guise of a compassionate approach to people who suffer from substance addiction and who commit

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