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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Yet areas like Bellevue WA are thriving as they take in families that are 🤮👎 of it all and want to have a decent life without having to have bars on their windows and complex burglar/fire alarms.

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

In the not so distant past those would just be regular summer vibes, since lows in the 40s were far from uncanny even at this juncture of the season. 

And unfortunately today looked to be the last sub 80 day for a long while to come, with still no rain in sight either. 

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1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

This graph shows the July lows below 50 at my station in Vancouver, WA (since 1996).  Average is 1.6.

For my Battle Ground station the average is 7.7.

Untitled.jpg

I’m interested to see if we can actually dip below 50 tomorrow morning. It’s hard to get into the upper 40s in July and august near the sound. Coldest low here for July is 47 and August is 48…and about half of the July/Augusts over the last 15 years haven’t dipped below 50. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Funny how you can predict how every other GFS run will end up without even looking at it. :lol: 

Our frigid, merely 2-3F above average July could be in jeopardy. 😰

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Can see the West-Pacific influence here. But also the developing high latitude blocking.

Caveat is, it’s the GFS. Likely over-amping the NPAC, as usual.

2D93D459-9460-4684-B9B1-069A65548D65.gif

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can see the West-Pacific influence here. But also the developing high latitude blocking.

Caveat is, it’s the GFS. Likely over-amping the NPAC, as usual.

2D93D459-9460-4684-B9B1-069A65548D65.gif

The most extreme heat solutions tend to verify. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The most extreme heat solutions tend to verify. 

Minus those 2 weeks, they haven’t really verified at all.

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Salem scored a sub-80 high today. WHOA!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

The warmth has in fact been very real and persistent, in spite of a lack of high end heat this month. Pretty elementary level of nuance there.

At this time in 2015 we were at the start of a troughy period much more "impressive" than anything we're going to see this month. From the 21st through 27th PDX averaged 75.6/58 with .54" of rain, good for -4.7 for the 7 day period including a sub 70 high on the 25th. 

#ColdJulyMemories

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem scored a sub-80 high today. WHOA!

Quick! We need to tell Robert Felix this!  ICE AGE IS A LOCK! We could have very nasty crop failure next spring if we keep having this happen...........All preppers arm yourselves against the city invaders 2022! 😲🙃..............................😂

The Great Willamette Valley Crop Failure The Movie coming soon to a cinema near you but remain 2m apart from all patrons at all times and wear double masks.  :)   We don't want you to breathe one bit during this film since you will die anyways from the crop failure.

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10 minutes ago, James Jones said:

At this time in 2015 we were at the start of a troughy period much more "impressive" than anything we're going to see this month. From the 21st through 27th PDX averaged 75.6/58 with .54" of rain, good for -4.7 for the 7 day period including a sub 70 high on the 25th. 

#ColdJulyMemories

That would've made Robert Felix and a few others pee in their pants at the thought of it. Should've made some really juicy headlines to prove Global Warming is a farce.  Never mind the later years of massive hot weather scrolling on the bottom of the screen.

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7 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

The warmth has in fact been very real and persistent, in spite of a lack of high end heat this month. Pretty elementary level of nuance there.

High end heat? Nothing even close to high end so far.

And if you want to ignore western WA ok, but 0 to +2 anomalies is pretty average-ish.

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1 hour ago, James Jones said:

At this time in 2015 we were at the start of a troughy period much more "impressive" than anything we're going to see this month. From the 21st through 27th PDX averaged 75.6/58 with .54" of rain, good for -4.7 for the 7 day period including a sub 70 high on the 25th. 

#ColdJulyMemories

Temps July 2021 to July 2015 to date:

PDX: -2

OLM: -3.5

SEA: -4.5

And there are going to be some impressive lows tomorrow morning, which you can suck.

#not2015

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23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Temps July 2021 to July 2015 to date:

PDX: -2

OLM: -3.5

SEA: -4.5

And there are going to be some impressive lows tomorrow morning, which you can suck.

#not2015

The ****? 

How that post led you to engage in personal insults is beyond me. Apparently even the slightest suggestion that there was colder weather at some point in the past is enough to get you to completely melt down. 

Get some help.

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38 minutes ago, James Jones said:

The ****? 

How that post led you to engage in personal insults is beyond me. Apparently even the slightest suggestion that there was colder weather at some point in the past is enough to get you to completely melt down. 

Get some help.

Stats = complete meltdown?

Address the actual content of the post. If you take me telling you to "suck low temps" seriously, you might need to reevaluate your internet comprehension skills.

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21 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

He didn't say there has been high end heat, at all.

He said there has been a lack of high end heat. Which is true...but there also has been nothing close to high end heat, which was my point.

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On 7/20/2021 at 4:53 PM, Front Ranger said:

Some of the models are now hinting at ridging returning and warm to hot regional temps as we get to days 9-10. Strongest sign we've really seen of it this month.

 

19 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

#julyisnotover

 

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48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Temps July 2021 to July 2015 to date:

PDX: -2

OLM: -3.5

SEA: -4.5

And there are going to be some impressive lows tomorrow morning, which you can suck.

#not2015

🤡

You're the only one who's utterly obsessing over this idea that 2015 is the gatekeeper for an "average hot summer" here. It's not and it was in fact an unprecedented hot summer at the time. The fact that we can seriously entertain that being rivaled this year in a good number of spots is a testament to how crooked things are at the moment. 

And there's no way that a winter (or summer) month that was averaging 2 degrees below normal across the I-5 stations would be getting dismissed by you so casually for its near averageishness. 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

🤡

You're the only one who's utterly obsessing over this idea that 2015 is the gatekeeper for an "average hot summer" here. It's not and it was in fact an unprecedented hot summer at the time. The fact that we can seriously entertain that being rivaled this year in a good number of spots is a testament to how crooked things are at the moment. 

And there's no way that a winter (or summer) month that was averaging 2 degrees below normal across the I-5 stations would be getting dismissed by you so casually for its near averageishness. 

The 2015 comparisons were not invented by me. See the June 2021 thread.

It was a speculative joke. And July has failed to live up to the hype.

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

The 2015 comparisons were not invented by me. See the June 2021 thread.

It was a speculative joke. And July has failed to live up to the hype.

Like the Switch Pro we are not allowed to have?

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Funny how you can predict how every other GFS run will end up without even looking at it. :lol: 

Reminds me of how investor reports blindly lead stock money people astray with the Switch Pro rumors. 

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13 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Even cooler this morning.  Yes that's a 38 reading in Yacolt...

Screenshot 2021-07-22 at 05-40-11 NWS Weather Hazards.png

Down to 51 here. Looks like PDX is holding steady at 57 which is their low end month to date.

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Chilly morning. Down to 43. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

BUT..2015!!1!11!!

That is actually a pretty impressive stat... lowest July maximum since 1986.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is actually a pretty impressive stat... lowest July maximum since 1986.  

Areas along the water have been cool. Mark Nelsen mentioned in his blog last night that Salem is on pace for their 4th warmest July of all time. Where my brother lives down on the southern Oregon Coast, temps have been average this month.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is actually a pretty impressive stat... lowest July maximum since 1986.  

The pattern has served the west side well, in terms of moderating sea breeze.  The interior continues to bake in extreme heat

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

The pattern has served the west side well, in terms of moderating sea breeze.  The interior continues to bake in extreme heat

Yeah... its been quite consistent.

And yet... this July has been very sunny here overall.    Only a handful of days with clouds into the afternoon.   And the rest of the month looks sunny.    I would not expect that given a situation with heat just over the mountains all month and such a strong west-east thermal gradient.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cooling continues across the Pacific, as upwelling increases in association with the recent trade burst and termination of the downwelling OKW.

This will moderate temporarily following the CCKW propagation across the Pacific over the next 2 weeks, but later in August and September should see another trade surge.

La Niña conditions likely by October or November. 

F199171F-C4B8-4B78-9E15-DFA066A4E089.png

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cooling continues across the Pacific, as upwelling increases in association with the recent trade burst and termination of the downwelling OKW.

This will moderate temporarily following the CCKW propagation across the Pacific over the next 2 weeks, but later in August and September should see another trade surge.

La Niña conditions likely by October or November. 

F199171F-C4B8-4B78-9E15-DFA066A4E089.png

Hard to believe that a summer in the middle of a multi-year Nina has been so warm and dry in my area.  Historically that has been a recipe for a chilly and/or wet summer.  Years like 1955, 1974, 1999, 2008, and 2011.    

To say this spring and summer have been the complete opposite of what I expected is a understatement.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

The 2015 comparisons were not invented by me. See the June 2021 thread.

It was a speculative joke. And July has failed to live up to the hype.

Nobody cares if we end up top 5 or the hottest summer on record at this point. It’s been a warm dry summer. July will end in the +2-4 range for many places…more like +1-3 near the water…after an anomalously warm June. Yes please keep telling us how “reasonable” this summers been because iTS nOt as hOT As 2015 while you’re out of state not even experiencing it.  You literally care more about proving it hasn’t been as hot as 2015 than anyone on here. Nobody even cares that much if it ends up #5 or #1 a warm dry summer is a warm dry summer. It might as well be 2015 with how dry it’s been.  #1 might be harder to do near the water but many could still do it. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Stay tuned for Flatiron’s next argument: if we completely ignore the last week of the month July 2021 was nowhere near as hot as our hottest July on record.

Shame on me for providing actual stats that show July 2021 hasn't been near as warm as July 2015 most places.

Feelings and narrative above all else.

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24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Nobody cares if we end up top 5 or the hottest summer on record at this point. It’s been a warm dry summer. July will end in the +2-4 range for many places…more like +1-3 near the water…after an anomalously warm June. Yes please keep telling us how “reasonable” this summers been because iTS nOt as hOT As 2015 while you’re out of state not even experiencing it.  You literally care more about proving it hasn’t been as hot as 2015 than anyone on here. Nobody even cares that much if it ends up #5 or #1 a warm dry summer is a warm dry summer. It might as well be 2015 with how dry it’s been.  #1 might be harder to do near the water but many could still do it. 

1. I responded to someone (James Jones) who was making a direct comparison to 2015. Maybe you should take it up with him.

2. Where I live has nothing to do with the stats. I lived in the PNW (including Tacoma) longer than you've been alive, just FYI. I have family in the PNW and plenty of reasons to be invested in the weather there, so really no reason to try to make that argument.

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6 hours ago, Cloud said:

Waiting for NWS to post a freeze warning. 🥶 ❄️ 

 

I'm sure whoever posted this will be fired as it doesn't fit in with "the narrative"...

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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