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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Areas along the water have been cool. Mark Nelsen mentioned in his blog last night that Salem is on pace for their 4th warmest July of all time. Where my brother lives down on the southern Oregon Coast, temps have been average this month.

SLE has represented the warm end of the spectrum for the westside this month, for whatever reason.

Almost everywhere else is running a cooler anomaly, most places much cooler.

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

1. I responded to someone (James Jones) who was making a direct comparison to 2015. Maybe you should take it up with him.

2. Where I live has nothing to do with the stats. I lived in the PNW (including Tacoma) longer than you've been alive, just FYI. I have family in the PNW and plenty of reasons to be invested in the weather there, so really no reason to try to make that argument.

You seem to have missed the point though. Nobody really cares if it’s the #1 summer or #3 or #5. It’s been warm that’s what we’re talking about. Looks like the final 1/3 of July will bump the averages up even more after a really warm June on top of it. Constantly trying to tell everyone its not going to get to 2015 (when it very well could depending on august) and that its been a “reasonable summer” because were running behind 2015 (for now) is all you care about. Can you not actually see how irritating that actually is and why you’re getting sh*t from everyone? Then try to insult James jones when you don’t like what they’ve got to say real nice. Nobody even really cares about the point you’re trying to drive into everyone’s heads. It’s been rough with how dry it’s been out here and it’s been warm in many places to the south and away from the water wether it hits 2015 levels or not is beside the point for many of us. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You seem to have missed the point though. Nobody really cares if it’s the #1 summer or #3 or #5. It’s been warm that’s what we’re talking about. Looks like the final 1/3 of July will bump the averages up even more after a really warm June on top of it. Constantly trying to tell everyone its not going to get to 2015 (when it very well could depending on august) and that its been a “reasonable summer” because were running behind 2015 (for now) is all you care about. Can you not actually see how irritating that actually is and why you’re getting sh*t from everyone? Then try to insult James jones when you don’t like what they’ve got to say real nice. Nobody even really cares about the point you’re trying to drive into everyone’s heads. It’s been rough with how dry it’s been out here and it’s been warm in many places to the south and away from the water wether it hits 2015 levels or not is beside the point for many of us. 

Again, if you don't like me bringing up 2015 or other really hot summers, then you should fairly apply that to the people who originally started making those comparisons, based off June. It is what it is. And I have not been the only one pointing out how absurd it was for people to jump to conclusions about the whole summer based off of an extreme heatwave - which is exactly what happened.

The dryness is a whole other thing. I've never disputed the fact it's been really dry since mid June.

I told James Jones he can suck this morning's low temps. If you take that seriously and find it to be a terribly mean insult, I fear what the rest of the internet might do to you.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Again, if you don't like me bringing up 2015 or other really hot summers, then you should fairly apply that to the people who originally started making those comparisons, based off June. It is what it is. And I have not been the only one pointing out how absurd it was for people to jump to conclusions about the whole summer based off of the extreme heatwave - which is exactly what happened.

The dryness is a whole other thing. I've never disputed the fact it's been really dry since mid June.

Some people might have made those 2015 comparisons during the height of the historic heatwave but only one person here seems to be so fixated on it that they are continuing to recall those comparisons almost a month later.

No one else has been beating the 'this is not 2015' drum harder than you. You've made your point over the past month, then made it again, and then made it again just to make sure the dead horse was beat enough. Now you should let it rest or you will keep getting responses similar to James Jones, TacomaWaWx, etc.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hard to believe that a summer in the middle of a multi-year Nina has been so warm and dry in my area.  Historically that has been a recipe for a chilly and/or wet summer.  Years like 1955, 1974, 1999, 2008, and 2011.    

To say this spring and summer have been the complete opposite of what I expected is a understatement.  

2012 was the last summer that felt like it was really La Nina influenced at all. 2017, 2018, and this year all have shown no indications of -ENSO being a factor.

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

BUT..2015!!1!11!!

 

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some people might have made those 2015 comparisons during the height of the historic heatwave but only one person here seems to be so fixated on it that they are continuing to recall those comparisons almost a month later.

No one else has been beating the 'this is not 2015' drum harder than you. You've made your point over the past month, then made it again, and then made it again just to make sure the dead horse was beat enough. Now you should let it rest or you will keep getting responses similar to James Jones, TacomaWaWx, etc.

I didn't bring up 2015 last night. Someone else did. And then someone else this morning. 

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12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Again, if you don't like me bringing up 2015 or other really hot summers, then you should fairly apply that to the people who originally started making those comparisons, based off June. It is what it is. And I am not the only one pointing out how absurd it was for people to jump to conclusions about the whole summer based off of the extreme heatwave - which is exactly what happened.

The dryness is a whole other thing. I've never disputed the fact it's been really dry since mid June.

Right and I understand you never disputed the dryness you said it’s been dry everyone knows that. But the warmth regionally is more than just the heatwave. Many locations had record breaking stretches in the 90s outside of the heatwave. It’s not like it hasn’t been warm outside of the heatwave it’s more than that. Many places are running above normal still this month and the final 1/3 will bump that up even more. We've been lucky in the Seattle area compared to the rest of the region. August could very well end up warm too. It’s not so outlandish to think 2021 could challenge 2015 in many places based off the first half of the summer…despite a “reasonable” but still above normal July that you’ve been praising. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2012 was the last summer that felt like it was really La Nina influenced at all. 2017, 2018, and this year all have shown no indications of -ENSO being a factor.

Summer has always been a bit more hit and miss with -ENSO. 1996, 1985, 1942, etc.

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

You and I both know what I said is true, whether the latest 2015 comparisons were specifically brought up by you or not.

I believe facts and context matter. You made it sound like I'm just bringing up 2015 out of the blue, when that was not the case.

I responded to something someone else posted about 2015, not the other way around like you said.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

I believe facts and context matter. You made it sound like I'm just bringing up 2015 out of the blue, when that clearly was not the case most recently.

I responded to something someone else posted about 2015, not the other way around.

OK, dude.

simon cowell facepalm GIF

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

You and I both know what I said is true, whether the latest 2015 comparisons were specifically brought up by you or not.

I didn't get a turn to beat the dead horse yet. For Reno and Tahoe this summer has been much warmer than 2015. July is currently running +9F over July 2015 in Tahoe city and +10F for Reno. This is in fact the hottest summer ever recorded by a large margin up to this point. Lol 

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2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I didn't get a turn to beat the dead horse yet. For Reno and Tahoe this summer has been much warmer than 2015. July is currently running +9F over July 2015 in Tahoe city and +10F for Reno. This is in fact the hottest summer ever recorded by a large margin up to this point. Lol 

Don't feed the beast.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Don't feed the beast.

You know I truly didn’t understand what everyone was talking about when the term “flatironing” was brought up when I started here. I fully understand now. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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In terms of recent Julys on the westside, 2013 is probably the best overall comp to this year for temps, at least it will be 3/4 of the way through. SLE's torch not withstanding...temps are looking similar for BLI, SEA, OLM, PDX, and EUG.

That July was also significantly warmer on the eastside.

Jul13TDeptWRCC-NW.png.7e8c733d9e05bb5192d2092f7f73adf6.png

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

In terms of recent Julys on the westside, 2013 is probably the best overall comp to this year for temps, at least it will be 3/4 of the way through. That July was also significantly warmer on the eastside.

Jul13TDeptWRCC-NW.png.7e8c733d9e05bb5192d2092f7f73adf6.png

:huh::huh:

Some July 2013 mean temps on the eastside:

GEG- 73.94

YKM- 77.48

RDM- 69.58

PDT- 75.34

Some July 2021 mean temps so far, with a hot last week of the month still to come.

GEG- 77.55

YKM- 79.60

RDM- 72.38

PDT- 77.50

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You know I truly didn’t understand what everyone was talking about when the term “flatironing” was brought up when I started here. I fully understand now. 

To be fair to him, there are a few users here that will drive their points so far into the ground they emerge on the other side of the Earth. The only difference is how they go about beating the dead horse. One tries to use debate tactics to make himself feel intellectually superior to others, one will threaten to beat you and cuss you out if you don't agree with his point, and one has gotten incredibly skilled at masking it as innocent banter after years of people giving him sh*t for it.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Up to 61 now and totally sunny 3 degrees ahead of yesterday at this time. 
 Nice to see a sub 50 low in the July/August period. Haven’t had one since 7/20/19. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You know I truly didn’t understand what everyone was talking about when the term “flatironing” was brought up when I started here. I fully understand now. 

It’s quite a fascinating phenomenon. I think it has to do with living at high altitudes.

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28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

:huh::huh:

Some July 2013 mean temps on the eastside:

GEG- 73.94

YKM- 77.48

RDM- 69.58

PDT- 75.34

Some July 2021 mean temps so far, with a hot last week of the month still to come.

GEG- 77.55

YKM- 79.60

RDM- 72.38

PDT- 77.50

I literally said for the westside.

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31 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

To be fair to him, there are a few users here that will drive their points so far into the ground they emerge on the other side of the Earth. The only difference is how they go about beating the dead horse. One tries to use debate tactics to make himself feel intellectually superior to others, one will threaten to beat you and cuss you out if you don't agree with his point, and one has gotten incredibly skilled at masking it as innocent banter after years of people giving him sh*t for it.

See, now you're turning this into ad hominem rather than sticking with facts and logic. Downvote.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I literally said for the westside.

No, you literally said "that July was also significantly warmer on the eastside". Please go back and read what you wrote.

The literal opposite is in fact the case. Literally.

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39 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In terms of recent Julys on the westside, 2013 is probably the best overall comp to this year for temps, at least it will be 3/4 of the way through. SLE's torch not withstanding...temps are looking similar for BLI, SEA, OLM, PDX, and EUG.

That July was also significantly warmer on the eastside.

 

This was the comparison I made for temps to 2013. The westside.

I then added that in another similarity, 2013 was also significantly warmer on the eastside. I did not say the eastside temps were similar. 

Nuance is apparently hard.

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This satellite covers the entire US and allows us to see the West Coast while the GOES West satellite is apparently offline.  

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This was the comparison I made for temps to 2013. The westside.

I then added that in another similarity, 2013 was also significantly warmer on the eastside. I did not say the eastside temps were similar. 

Nuance is apparently hard.

You probably should have worded it differently if that was the case, as in "that July also featured significantly warmer departures on the eastside of the Cascades versus the westside".

It's been a tough summer for you.

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That AL is back on the 12Z GFS at day 8...

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7646400.png

How’s the EPS looking. Any rain coming?

 

The flat lake fire near our cabin received about 0.1” of rain last night. Might be enough to slow it down for a couple days 

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You probably should have worded it differently if that was the case, as in "that July also featured significantly warmer departures on the eastside of the Cascades versus the westside".

That literally is just a wordier version of what I said. 😆

Maybe you're just going out of your way to try to prove me wrong?

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

How’s the EPS looking. Any rain coming?

 

The flat lake fire near our cabin received about 0.1” of rain last night. Might be enough to slow it down for a couple days 

Here is the 00Z EPS... basically no rain but also doesn't show any hot weather either.     Just consistent warmth.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626912000-1626912000-1628208000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-total_precip_inch-8208000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6912000.png

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Oh, lighten up buttercup.

Nobody is personally attacking you. Just commenting on some of your often used tactics.

Yes, and I'm commenting on the often used tactic of ad hominem.

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That literally is just a wordier version of what I said. 😆

Maybe you're just going out of your way to try to prove me wrong?

Nah, your wording was just poor and pretty easily misinterpreted. I'm actually giving you the benefit of the doubt in assuming that was in fact what you really meant.

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This satellite covers the entire US and allows us to see the West Coast while the GOES West satellite is apparently offline.  

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thanks. I was trying to get a satellite photo of the fire near us and found out the Goes west was offline. 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 00Z EPS... basically no rain but also doesn't show any hot weather either.     Just consistent warmth.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626912000-1626912000-1628208000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-total_precip_inch-8208000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6912000.png

If those numbers verified here in Tacoma by the end of July we would be running +1.5. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Thanks. I was trying to get a satellite photo of the fire near us and found out the Goes west was offline. 

Very unfortunate time to have the GOES satellite down with all the fire activity currently and potentially coming up. Hopefully it’s back online soon. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Kinda interesting that on the 22nd, this July is featuring SEA’s coldest max temp since 1986 while PDX is in the running for its warmest min/max on record.

Been a uniquely boring July.

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Consistently pleasant here... and there will likely be almost no marine layer inland over the next week or more. 

Screenshot_20210722-103300_Google.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The GFS and CMC have some significant differences in mid range pattern development, with the GFS going much more Aleutian low style. Will be interesting to see which way the Euro goes.

12Z GEFS for the next 10 days...

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626955200-1626955200-1627819200-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Holy crap, I can't believe I am the only one that has noticed that this summer has been running in step 100% exactly like 2021.  It's completely different than any other year and looks like that trend will continue through the remainder of the summer!!  Boom bittches!!

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49 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The GFS and CMC have some significant differences in mid range pattern development, with the GFS going much more Aleutian low style. Will be interesting to see which way the Euro goes.

That Aleutian low is spawned from the West-Pacific CCKW and typhoon influence that is relatively transient.

So whether it verifies or not, it’s unlikely to stick around for long. We return to a west-based La Niña type tropical forcing (intraseasonal) very quickly in early August (which can still be warm).

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22 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Holy crap, I can't believe I am the only one that has noticed that this summer has been running in step 100% exactly like 2021.  It's completely different than any other year and looks like that trend will continue through the remainder of the summer!!  Boom bittches!!

You need new material. 

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS for the next 10 days...

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626955200-1626955200-1627819200-10.gif

Man, that would be an amazing severe pattern imby, as long as we don’t end up under the ridge.

Though with E-Hem/Indian Ocean MJO/CCKWs next month, that fat, ugly 4-corners/plains ridge is only going to get fatter and uglier. I fear a top-5 hot August is in store for the lower-48. And September is looking progressively worse of late, as well. Even squinting, I don’t see any real hope on the horizon. :( 

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