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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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It was clear it would get hot again at some point this summer. Our four weeks of onshore flow with temps just 2-4 degrees above average was pretty pleasant.

I guess the most one can hope for is it is a relatively short lived event with some sort of pattern change on the far side. Although we all know the odds are low of either being the case.

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The crazy thing is how insanely hot this month has already been in the western US, especially east of the Cascades and south of the Willamette Valley. The last week looks to really push things over the edge.

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46 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It was clear it would get hot again at some point this summer. Our four weeks of onshore flow with temps just 2-4 degrees above average was pretty pleasant.

I guess the most one can hope for is it is a relatively short lived event with some sort of pattern change on the far side. Although we all know the odds are low of either being the case.

I know facts can be controversial and inflammatory around here, but everywhere Portland north is running below +2 for the month.

A forum for the end of the world.

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24 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I know facts can be controversial and inflammatory around here, but everywhere Portland north is running below +2 for the month.

lol here you go banging your 2015 drum again that nobody even cares about at this point. We all know it’s been modestly warm north of Portland in western WA compared to the region like has been discussed many times recently thanks again for the heads up. Here’s the issue though…a few people said right after the heatwave this summer could go on to be like 2015 and backed off…and here you are a month later still letting everyone know about it because you need to let everyone know how smart you are. People aren’t even arguing about 2015 at this point it’s all you. Funny thing is it’s about to get warmer and bump this months averages up and august could still even push us to record territory for the summer as a whole. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Looks like convection propagates out of the West-Pacific by the start of week-2.

There’s lag time/reverberations globally, but overall the system seems to want to correct back to the La Niña type circulation faster than last month.

1455624B-E406-4458-8E41-A3552C4C97B7.png

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

It was clear it would get hot again at some point this summer. Our four weeks of onshore flow with temps just 2-4 degrees above average was pretty pleasant.

I guess the most one can hope for is it is a relatively short lived event with some sort of pattern change on the far side. Although we all know the odds are low of either being the case.

Summer is easily the longest season here now.

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BLI is at 38 consecutive days without measurable rain.

Their record is 54 days, a mark which now stretches to the end of the current GFS range. There's really no rain or meaningful troughing anywhere in sight, so they have a good chance of breaking that record as it stands right now.

SEA has to get to 55 days to tie their record, and they are also on a 38 day streak. Again, a pretty decent chance they get there.

PDX has a much longer way to go to hit their record of 71 days, but something tells me they'll do it.

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51 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

lol here you go banging your 2015 drum again that nobody even cares about at this point. We all know it’s been modestly warm north of Portland in western WA compared to the region like has been discussed many times recently thanks again for the heads up. Here’s the issue though…a few people said right after the heatwave this summer could go on to be like 2015 and backed off…and here you are a month later still letting everyone know about it because you need to let everyone know how smart you are. People aren’t even arguing about 2015 at this point it’s all you. Funny thing is it’s about to get warmer and bump this months averages up and august could still even push us to record territory for the summer as a whole. 

What? I didn't say anything about 2015. I pointed to the actual anomalies for this month, because someone said it's been "+2 to +4 with onshore flow".

Seems like you're just looking for something to argue about now.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What? I didn't say anything about 2015. I mentioned the actual anomalies for this month, because someone said it's been "+2 to +4 with onshore flow".

Seems like you're just looking for something to argue about now.

I’m looking for something to argue about? You know exactly what you were doing when you posted that don’t act dumb. You’re looking for an argument that’s all you’ve done the past month. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

BLI is at 38 consecutive days without measurable rain.

Their record is 54 days, a mark which now stretches to the end of the current GFS range. There's really no rain or meaningful troughing anywhere in sight, so they have a good chance of breaking that record as it stands right now.

SEA has to get to 55 days to tie their record, and they are also on a 38 day streak. Again, a pretty decent chance they get there.

PDX has a much longer way to go to hit their record of 71 days, but something tells me they'll do it.

My idea of worst-case weather for our region keeps getting reset. Our spring dryness was worse than a worst-case scenario. Our heat wave at the end of June was worse than a worst-case scenario. The dry streak that we are on feels like it could end up worse than a worst-case scenario too. 

Worst-case to me is warm and/or dry.

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Don’t even know why I try reasoning with the king of shifting goalposts. Lol keep trying to show everyone how and educated and right you are good job! 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m looking for something to argue about? You know exactly what you were doing when you posted that don’t act dumb. You’re looking for an argument that’s all you’ve done the past month. 

Sorry, but you said I was "banging the 2015 drum" when I didn't even mention 2015. You were reading things into what I said that literally weren't there. 

That's on you. Just don't make assumptions like that and we'll be fine.

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Don’t even know why I try reasoning with the king of shifting goalposts. Lol keep trying to show everyone how and educated and right you are good job! 

No need to make things personal and insulting. I'm not doing that with you.

And how was I "shifting goalposts"? Now you're just throwing meaningless sh*t out there. 

A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Sorry, but you said I was "banging the 2015 drum" when I didn't even mention 2015. You were reading things into what I said that literally weren't there. 

That's on you. Just don't make assumptions like that and we'll be fine.

You know EXACTLY what you were doing there. For someone this smart you shouldn’t be playing dumb. Just trying to get a rise out of people because you want to show everyone how correct you are.  I don’t even know why I respond but here I am. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

No need to make things personal and insulting. I'm not doing that with you.

Lol you do it all the time just in a very subtle condescending way. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You know EXACTLY what you were doing there. For someone this smart you shouldn’t be playing dumb. Just trying to get a rise out of people because you want to show everyone how correct you are.  I don’t even know why I respond but here I am. 

I was pointing out facts. You should stick to those instead of this pettiness. 

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I was pointing out facts. You should stick to those instead of this pettiness. 

Lol now you’re the victim somehow…the person instigating all of this the past month is now the victim here. I’m not going to clog the forum up with this anymore I’ve said what I said. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

BLI is at 38 consecutive days without measurable rain.

Their record is 54 days, a mark which now stretches to the end of the current GFS range. There's really no rain or meaningful troughing anywhere in sight, so they have a good chance of breaking that record as it stands right now.

SEA has to get to 55 days to tie their record, and they are also on a 38 day streak. Again, a pretty decent chance they get there.

PDX has a much longer way to go to hit their record of 71 days, but something tells me they'll do it.

The best chance of breaking the streak with the coming pattern most places would probably be tapping into an unusually strong surge of monsoonal moisture making it north.

Small chance, but don't really see another path to precip unless models shift radically.

A forum for the end of the world.

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16 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

My idea of worst-case weather for our region keeps getting reset. Our spring dryness was worse than a worst-case scenario. Our heat wave at the end of June was worse than a worst-case scenario. The dry streak that we are on feels like it could end up worse than a worst-case scenario too. 

Worst-case to me is warm and/or dry.

The second half of August is our best case scenario for some decent rain to return, although the last two decades have taught me not to put any faith into August.

If balance was still even remotely a thing in the climate universe then one would historically anticipate some significant rain and summer coming to a screeching halt around August 20 given how crooked things have been. My suspicion is that it'll wait a few more weeks this year just for some extra torture.

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The best chance of breaking the streak with the coming pattern most places would probably be tapping into an unusually strong surge of monsoonal moisture making it north.

Small chance, but don't really see another path to precip unless models shift radically.

The 00z Euro oddly gave some scattered moisture to western OR during the middle of next week. Showed about 0.06" for PDX on Wednesday on a 90 degree day. Doesn't look like a particularly convective setup with the limited instability and forcing, and none of the other models show the same little batch of showers so my guess would be it's out to lunch.

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I know facts can be controversial and inflammatory around here, but everywhere Portland north is running below +2 for the month.

What’s Bellingham at, out of curiosity.  YVR and YXX are both well above +2 through the 22nd

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Seattle Times is imploring people to get out and enjoy our bright summer while it lasts because we will all be mole people living in the dark very soon.  😀

st7.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seattle Times is imploring people to get out and enjoy our bright summer while it lasts because we will all be mole people living in the dark very soon.  😀

st7.png

We’re going to catch our first M’s game since the pandemic Monday night against the Astros! Definitely bringing a jacket though since daylight is waning 

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4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I know facts can be controversial and inflammatory around here, but everywhere Portland north is running below +2 for the month.

Temperature anomalies should not be controversial at all this month as data have shown it’s been relatively closer to average at least for W.Wa.

This should no longer be a 2015 comparison and probably shouldn’t be to begin with. 2015 was an exceptional year and we should just let it be for what it was. 
 

What we should be discussing is the ongoing drought conditions despite the closer to normal average temps. SEA is approaching top 5 all time, now at 38 days. Unfortunately forecast looks dry and warmer heading into August and the drought map looks about as grim as it’s ever been. 
 

78EC7F0D-AA4A-46E3-B256-8230408029DC.png

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I was at Ocean Shores this past week which is why I haven't posted.  It was certainly interesting how the nicest days were the ones that were cloudy in Seattle.

At any rate this has been a purely enjoyable summer outside of the one week from hell.  In fact if you take that week out SEA would be a tad below normal for the summer to date.  Looking ahead the center of the high over the CONUS remains displaced unusually far east so things aren't going to get all that hot any time soon.  Probably a few solidly warm days, but nothing too out of the ordinary.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12Z ECMWF not really backing down... it shows 107 in Portland one week from today.

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12Z ECMWF shows 93, 107, 106, 89 at PDX for the Thursday through Sunday period next week.

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Basically a re-run of late June post-WPAC pulse, except different external expression thru seasonality/wavenumber.

Either way it’s a similar theme..lag time (of unpredictable duration) in +TNH pattern following the WPAC event.

How long is TBD, but the tropics don’t stay in WPAC mode for long. And now the GEFS and EPS align, so maybe we’ll see some clarity in the signals once the forcing flips at the end of the month.

3356FF1B-2878-4048-B143-3FD4A0829522.png

9DEFC66B-1093-46EB-A362-1F9D1D5F9E12.png

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12Z ECMWF shows some rain next week for parts of OR and WA... likely related to monsoon moisture on the back side of the ridge.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-total_precip_inch-7905600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Model trends can change over the course of several days. 😱

Does it count as 4CH if it covers most the U.S.?

Yes because that’s what it is.

That sucker is likely going to be with us well into the autumn given the Hadley Cell condition.

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Temperature anomalies should not be controversial at all this month as data have shown it’s been relatively closer to average at least for W.Wa.

This should no longer be a 2015 comparison and probably shouldn’t be to begin with. 2015 was an exceptional year and we should just let it be for what it was. 
 

What we should be discussing is the ongoing drought conditions despite the closer to normal average temps. SEA is approaching top 5 all time, now at 38 days. Unfortunately forecast looks dry and warmer heading into August and the drought map looks about as grim as it’s ever been. 
 

78EC7F0D-AA4A-46E3-B256-8230408029DC.png

Nobody’s actually even arguing it’s been like 2015 in Seattle though somethings that’s been recognized for a couple weeks now. It is close to comparable or comparable to 2015 in some places though. People seem to think I’m saying that it’s been like 2015 in Seattle…but it’s not. I’m just anti having a certain someone tell everyone everyday for a month straight in a condescending smug way. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Also I’ve been digging into summers like this and it struck me how descending E-QBO seems to be a theme in warm PNW summers under neutral/cool ENSO conditions.

It makes sense in theory, but I didn’t expect to see such a strong relationship in the NH warm season. But since QBO seems to affect tropical convection/RWB year-round, maybe it’s something we should consider.

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Cover your eyes Jesse…
I picked a horrible day to take off work and test the boat! 

334A782F-58B8-46F7-959A-930FD402C87C.jpeg

Looks really windy!  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Also I’ve been digging into summers like this and it struck me how descending E-QBO seems to be a theme in warm PNW summers under neutral/cool ENSO conditions. It makes sense in theory, but I didn’t expect to see such a strong relationship in the warm season.

 

I don't think there has ever been a summer like this in the middle of a multi-year Nina event.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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