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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows 93, 107, 106, 89 at PDX for the Thursday through Sunday period next week.

Yeah it was a hot euro run. Looks like the last couple days of July beginning of august might be warm. Thankfully it won’t be as hot as it was in June! 70 and sunny here nice weather for now. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also I’ve been digging into summers like this and it struck me how descending E-QBO seems to be a theme in warm PNW summers under neutral/cool ENSO conditions.

It makes sense in theory, but I didn’t expect to see such a strong relationship in the NH warm season. But since QBO seems to affect tropical convection/RWB year-round, maybe it’s something we should consider.

 

There's almost unlimited variables to consider. And once you factor in a certain number, they start to overlap or contradict each other to the point where there's either no sample size of comparable conditions or the signal is lost.

That's why I handed off the LR forecasting reins to you years ago. 😉

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4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

The second half of August is our best case scenario for some decent rain to return, although the last two decades have taught me not to put any faith into August.

If balance was still even remotely a thing in the climate universe then one would historically anticipate some significant rain and summer coming to a screeching halt around August 20 given how crooked things have been. My suspicion is that it'll wait a few more weeks this year just for some extra torture.

1977 might be the ultimate example of this. The first 17 days of the month was perhaps the hottest 17 day stretch on record, then we crashed into fall and never looked back. The last 10 days of the month had 3.59" of rain at SEA, 4.17" at OLM, and 3.26" at PDX. Even a pale imitation of that would be a godsend for our ecosystem. 

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2 hours ago, Cloud said:

Temperature anomalies should not be controversial at all this month as data have shown it’s been relatively closer to average at least for W.Wa.

This should no longer be a 2015 comparison and probably shouldn’t be to begin with. 2015 was an exceptional year and we should just let it be for what it was. 
 

What we should be discussing is the ongoing drought conditions despite the closer to normal average temps. SEA is approaching top 5 all time, now at 38 days. Unfortunately forecast looks dry and warmer heading into August and the drought map looks about as grim as it’s ever been. 
 

78EC7F0D-AA4A-46E3-B256-8230408029DC.png

Yeah, no. It’s far from a stretch to say this summer is on track end up close to as hot as or even hotter than 2015 for many parts of the region, fog belt locations within five miles of Puget sound notwithstanding.

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think there has ever been a summer like this in the middle of a multi-year Nina event.   

Sure there have been. Problem is, our perspective is warped by that monster heatwave. It was a fluke arising from miraculous timing/amplitude of variables, and wouldn’t happen at all in 99.99% of analogous evolutions. So we miss the forest through the trees.

However, yes, there are things ongoing in the Southern Hemisphere that are (indirectly) exacerbating the Hadley Cell condition in the Northern Hemisphere this year. Which was bad enough going in, but worse now.

I don’t think we can pull out of this regime easy. Delayed autumn across the NH seems increasingly likely. But perhaps a quick descent into winter thereafter.

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Just now, Phil said:

Sure there have been. Problem is, our perspective is warped by that monster heatwave. It was a fluke arising from miraculous timing/amplitude of variables, and wouldn’t happen at all in 99.99% of analogous evolutions. So we miss the forest through the trees.

However, yes, there are things ongoing in the Southern Hemisphere that are (indirectly) exacerbating the Hadley Cell condition in the Northern Hemisphere this year. Which was bad enough going in, but worse now.

I don’t think we can pull out of this regime easy. Delayed autumn across the NH seems increasingly likely.

Its hard to find any examples of such a sunny, warm, dry summer in my area in the middle of a multi-year Nina.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There's almost unlimited variables to consider. And once you factor in a certain number, they start to overlap or contradict each other to the point where there's either no sample size of comparable conditions or the signal is lost.

That's why I handed off the LR forecasting reins to you years ago. 😉

I agree to an extent. Large number of contradicting variables is a given, but the question is *which* variables will run the show? Because the same forcing can trigger a completely different response from year to year (and certainly from season to season). The in-situ system state matters.

And that’s the difficult part. At least for me. Some years things are more linear and easier to project (like 2019), other years it’s more complicated with lots of state-dependent responses and interference (like this year).

I’m finding it borderline impossible to make subseasonal predictions this year. Low frequency/seasonal was more clear (large HC/expanded 4CH). But that doesn’t tell you much. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sure there have been. Problem is, our perspective is warped by that monster heatwave. It was a fluke arising from miraculous timing/amplitude of variables, and wouldn’t happen at all in 99.99% of analogous evolutions. So we miss the forest through the trees.

However, yes, there are things ongoing in the Southern Hemisphere that are (indirectly) exacerbating the Hadley Cell condition in the Northern Hemisphere this year. Which was bad enough going in, but worse now.

I don’t think we can pull out of this regime easy. Delayed autumn across the NH seems increasingly likely. But perhaps a quick descent into winter thereafter.

Example?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I was at Ocean Shores this past week which is why I haven't posted.  It was certainly interesting how the nicest days were the ones that were cloudy in Seattle.

At any rate this has been a purely enjoyable summer outside of the one week from hell.  In fact if you take that week out SEA would be a tad below normal for the summer to date.  Looking ahead the center of the high over the CONUS remains displaced unusually far east so things aren't going to get all that hot any time soon.  Probably a few solidly warm days, but nothing too out of the ordinary.

Hope you had a good time out at ocean shores! I’m planning on being out there next month. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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11 minutes ago, James Jones said:

1977 might be the ultimate example of this. The first 17 days of the month was perhaps the hottest 17 day stretch on record, then we crashed into fall and never looked back. The last 10 days of the month had 3.59" of rain at SEA, 4.17" at OLM, and 3.26" at PDX. Even a pale imitation of that would be a godsend for our ecosystem. 

2004 was a bit of a poor man's version of that. Septembers in both years were also quite pleasant and troughy.

Unfortunately our current warm season climate is no longer anything like the 1970s, and even the 2000s are noticeably cooler. Winters have certainly changed here but summers have changed much faster and much more decisively.

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Example?

Most recent was 2017.

And that one never reached full potential. Could have been much worse with slight tweaks.

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its hard to find any examples of such a sunny, warm, dry summer in my area in the middle of a multi-year Nina.

It's actually going to be almost impossible to find any examples of such a sunny, warm, dry summer in your area period.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

It's actually going to be almost impossible to find any examples of such a sunny, warm, dry summer in your area period.

I think 2017 and 2018 were close.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Would be pretty nasty to have even a run-of-the-mill early September offshore flow event-- even a fraction of what we had last year.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think 2017 and 2018 were close.  

I always forget that those years were nina years. The winters that followed 2017 and 2018 weren’t too bad though. Maybe us having a warm summer is a good sign for winter? 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think 2017 and 2018 were close.  

June was easily warmer than either of those years, and this month will be warmer than July 2017. 

And we're not even into August yet, which is our hottest and crappiest month by a fairly substantial margin.

We also had the driest and sunniest spring in 97 years. It's basically going to be an 8 month summer this year.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I always forget that those years were nina years. The winters that followed 2017 and 2018 weren’t too bad though. Maybe us having a warm summer is a good sign for winter? 

Only 2017 was a Niña.

2018 was a developing Niño, albeit borderline. But still not really analogous in that respect.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

June was easily warmer than either of those years, and this month will be warmer than July 2017. 

And we're not even into August yet, which is our hottest and crappiest month by a fairly substantial margin.

We also had the driest and sunniest spring in 97 years. It's basically going to be an 8 month summer this year.

I just remember the summers of 2017 and 2018 being unusually sunny, warm, and dry here.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Phil said:

Only 2017 was a Niña.

2018 was a developing Niño, albeit borderline.

Oh right I was thinking 16-17 and 17-18 not 17-18 and 18-19. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Most recent was 2017.

And that one never reached full potential. Could have been much worse with slight tweaks.

2008 only colder and snowier???

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19 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, no. It’s far from a stretch to say this summer is on track end up close to as hot as or even hotter than 2015 for many parts of the region, fog belt locations within five miles of Puget sound notwithstanding.

Long way to go. But some obscure stations like OLM, SEA, and VUO are definitely not on track to end up that warm. 

August will be telling!

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2004 was a bit of a poor man's version of that. Septembers in both years were also quite pleasant and troughy.

Unfortunately our current warm season climate is no longer anything like the 1970s, and even the 2000s are noticeably cooler. Winters have certainly changed here but summers have changed much faster and much more decisively.

Summers (or the warm season in general) have definitely been starting earlier recently, but I wouldn't say they've been stretching long.

September 2019, 2018, 2016, and 2015 were all cool to average-ish temp wise for the region, with a decent amount of rain, and even 2017 turned abruptly fall-like halfway through.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Summers (or the warm season in general) have definitely been starting earlier recently, but I wouldn't say they've been stretching long.

September 2019, 2018, 2016, and 2015 were all cool to average-ish temp wise for the region, with a decent amount of rain, and even 2017 turned abruptly fall-like halfway through.

Having summer essentially start in late April recently more than makes up for fall starting more or less on time.

Historically our hottest or driest Septembers were in years with much wetter and cooler spring and summer weather than we've seen recently. 2012, 2011, 1993, 1991, 1975, 1974... it makes sense that we haven't quite seen the magic combo of a bone dry spring, a crazy hot and dry summer, and a thoroughly summer-like September. Maybe this will be the year we break through and go full Sacramento.

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Heh..there’s actually a substantial QBO relationship to PNW summers since the 1990s. Not sure if it’s statistically significant but it’s there.

There are exceptions, but I think there is a substantial difference between these two groups. Some of the exceptions are clearly ENSO driven.

* denotes deviations from expected long wave pattern.

+QBO within/descending below 40hpa: 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004* 2006* 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013*, 2016, 2019, 2020.

-QBO within/descending below 40hpa: 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2001*, 2003, 2005, 2007*, 2009, 2012*, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021.

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17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hot and dry to warm and dry!?

Pretty big changes!!

With the caveat that it could just stay insanely hot.

That’d be a marine layer pattern so westside would catch a break.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Heh..there’s actually a substantial QBO relationship to PNW summers since the 1990s. Not sure if it’s statistically significant but it’s there.

There are exceptions, but I think there is a substantial difference between these two groups. Some of the exceptions are clearly ENSO driven.

* denotes deviations from expected long wave pattern.

+QBO within/descending below 40hpa: 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004* 2006* 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013*, 2016, 2019, 2020.

-QBO within/descending below 40hpa: 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2001*, 2003, 2005, 2007*, 2009, 2012*, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021.

This actually extends back into the 1980s as well. Data less reliable before the satellite era but I think there’s something here.

What stands out the most is there are no hot summer niñas in the W-QBO group.

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57 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, no. It’s far from a stretch to say this summer is on track end up close to as hot as or even hotter than 2015 for many parts of the region, fog belt locations within five miles of Puget sound notwithstanding.

Yeah……. I’m very sorry that you’re gonna end up warmer but I don’t live in said parts so I can’t relate. Facts are facts and W.Wa been running a 0 to +2 anomalies for July. And that’s about the only thing I care about. 
 

2015 was a different set up with a different pattern. Sorry that it’s warmer this year. 

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Tropical bombardment increasingly likely starting in mid-August.

Kinda true every year. But this is an abrupt switch flip from hostile conditions to favorable conditions as TUTTs leave the picture.

6719AD9E-2179-4E41-B22F-E95D967BB518.png

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Yeah……. I’m very sorry that you’re gonna end up warmer but I don’t live in said parts so I can’t relate. Facts are facts and W.Wa been running a 0 to +2 anomalies for July. And that’s about the only thing I care about. 

Maps don't lie.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.0a3a7bfc536696aec3abf19e85bf4f8f.png

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think the fact Jared and I actually agree on something (re: 2015) is as compelling an argument as any. 

Nobody’s saying that it’s been hotter than 2015 in Seattle I do agree with you and Jared on that. This month hasn’t been bad but it might be a bit warm at the end. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

80 and sunny here.  

77 here. Probably going to get to 80 here today. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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52 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Maps don't lie.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.0a3a7bfc536696aec3abf19e85bf4f8f.png

We will see how much those numbers go up by the end of the month. Glad it didn’t end up being as bad as we thought it might be after the heatwave. Shouldn’t be as big of a positive anomaly as June was thankfully. Now we’ve just got to get through august…might not be fun if Phil’s right.

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will see how much those numbers go up by the end of the month. Glad it didn’t end up being as bad as we thought it might be after the heatwave. Shouldn’t be as big of a positive anomaly as June was thankfully. Now we’ve just got to get through august…might not be fun if Phil’s right.

Worried about August, though there are ways we could weasel out of it. If the west-pacific lights up mid-month it’s game over, though.

Can’t see how NH middle latitudes in general don’t blowtorch well into the autumn, but maybe I’m full of it.

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