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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Up to 88F beautiful day. Been following NCAA conference realignment very closely as it directly affects my charity and I have the kiddos over so not a lot of time to post.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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732C1EA8-FFD8-47D5-A011-F80A60C7C148.jpegNws sure seems to think it’ll be warm at the end of the month. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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5 hours ago, Cloud said:

Yeah……. I’m very sorry that you’re gonna end up warmer but I don’t live in said parts so I can’t relate. Facts are facts and W.Wa been running a 0 to +2 anomalies for July. And that’s about the only thing I care about. 
 

2015 was a different set up with a different pattern. Sorry that it’s warmer this year. 

Well if you only care about the small part of the region surrounding your house, don’t chime in on a debate regarding regional anomalies with incorrect statements like you did earlier. Sorry that it’s warmer everywhere else this year and wherever you live is largely unrepresentative of the region.

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Just now, Jginmartini said:

79/51 currently 76*

80* denied but another beautiful day to be out playing in it :) 

I thought we were headed for 80 too but we maxed out a bit before 5pm. Some 80s are coming. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I thought we were headed for 80 too but we maxed out a bit before 5pm. Some 80s are coming. 

North wind over the Sound will battle to keep us a bit cooler then the rest  (according to HRRR).  I think we will still string a few 80*+ this weekend into next week though.

BDB1894E-A190-488C-95CE-F0BA7AA11CA7.jpeg

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2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Heads up guys, expect some whining from Winter (wiener?) dog soon ☺️

Haha, no whining from me, I'm just impressed that you were able to unearth 42 of my posts that you hadn't already downvoted.  I probably haven't made 42 posts in the past year.   For something as innocuous as downvotes you sure put a lot of effort into it.  

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1 hour ago, Acer said:

Haha, no whining from me, I'm just impressed that you were able to unearth 42 of my posts that you hadn't already downvoted.  I probably haven't made 42 posts in the past year.   For something as innocuous as downvotes you sure put a lot of effort into it.  

Took me maybe two minutes. 

#skills

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The progression in the mid to long range on the 00Z GFS is nice. Too bad it has about as much a chance of verifying as Acer hardware figuring out the most efficient way to downvote en masse.

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Low of 57 this morning. Quite a bit warmer than the last 3 mornings. Should be enough of a head start to push us into the 80s this afternoon too. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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The 00Z ECMWF was much more reasonable... kept Portland below 100.

The 00Z EPS just showed consistent warmth...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-7084800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Smoke is quickly accumulating again east of the Cascades as onshore flow weakens.    Any ridging to the north right now would be very bad for the west side.

 

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.truecolor.20210724.141117-over=map-bars=.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Smoke is quickly accumulating again east of the Cascades as onshore flow weakens.    Any ridging to the north right now would be very bad for the west side.

 

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.truecolor.20210724.141117-over=map-bars=.gif

Clocks ticking on our beautiful blue skies. Going to go camping Sunday-Tuesday since I don’t know how much longer we will be in the clear with the upcoming weather pattern. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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10 hours ago, Jesse said:

The progression in the mid to long range on the 00Z GFS is nice. Too bad it has about as much a chance of verifying as Acer hardware figuring out the most efficient way to downvote en masse.

I saw this post last night and though, my God Jesse is angry. Then I read back through the comments and realized why. 

  • Storm 1
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Pretty smoky in southern OR too. 

0634B48D-77C8-4EC2-9879-941711BE6BDB.jpeg

Holy cow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Things get busy at work, I miss 12 hours on the forum and come back and we are looking at some real heat building back in. Looks like NWS is predicting 90+ at SLE 6 of the next 7 days. That would get them to 15 with one day left in the month, which is also looking like a 90+. We would have to run the table to match the 17 days of 90+ from July 2018, not out of the realm of possibility. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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If the NWS forecast verifies SLE will be VERY close to July 2015. I calculated at face value they will end the month at 72.8 which would be the 2nd warmest July on record and only 0.3F behind 2015. If the heat over performs than we will be breaking new ground. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The upcoming pattern is actually pretty unusual in the context of the last 9 years.

Maybe similar in parts of the West as far as observed weather is concerned, but persistent large scale NW flow @ 500mb (as opposed to SW flow) hasn’t happened in the summer east of the Mississippi for almost a decade. I’ve been waiting for this type of pattern for a long a** time.  ⚡⚡⚡

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11 hours ago, Jesse said:

The progression in the mid to long range on the 00Z GFS is nice. Too bad it has about as much a chance of verifying as Acer hardware figuring out the most efficient way to downvote en masse.

I've never really had the desire to downvote en masse.  Might be a generational thing,  Too bad we don't have stickies here, you could post instructions for doing it so everyone could vent their frustrations en masse.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The upcoming pattern is actually pretty unusual in the context of the last 9 years.

Maybe similar in parts of the West as far as observed weather is concerned, but persistent large scale NW flow @ 500mb (instead of SW flow) hasn’t happened in the summer east of the Mississippi for almost a decade. I’ve been waiting for this type of pattern for a long a** time.  ⚡⚡⚡

Wish replies would work instead of flaking out on me on certain users won't post.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS trending Jesse’s way.

This is a really stupid comment.  No one on here is cheering for more extreme heat and smoke.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Acer said:

I've never really had the desire to downvote en masse.  Might be a generational thing,  Too bad we don't have stickies here, you could post instructions for doing it so everyone could vent their frustrations en masse.

Good. Shows you still have right from wrong. 

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45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good morning everyone!! It’s going to be a beautiful Saturday!! 
Currently 59 and sunny!! 

You forgot about the part announcing some oldies that will blow you away!  YAY it posted this time!

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Pretty smoky in southern OR too. 

0634B48D-77C8-4EC2-9879-941711BE6BDB.jpeg

Western states should be fined for gunking up everyone’s air.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I saw this post last night and though, my God Jesse is angry. Then I read back through the comments and realized why. 

Because I gave him a few weenie's?  Hardly.  He is the king of handing out weenies.

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8 minutes ago, Link said:

Wish replies would work instead of flaking out on me on certain users won't post.

I don’t understand what you’re saying here.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Western states should be fined for gunking up everyone’s air.

Another stupid comment.  Lets fine them for climate change being caused by the rest of the world when the western states are doing the most to make a difference. 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is a really stupid comment.  No one on here is cheering for more extreme heat and smoke.   

Huh? Where did I say that?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Huh? Where did I say that?

The GFS is trending everyone's way... more reasonable temps and less chance of being inundated with smoke.   

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS is trending everyone's way... more reasonable temps and less chance of being inundated with smoke.   

Okay? So my post was accurate, then?

I don’t see what the issue is. :lol: 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS is trending everyone's way... more reasonable temps and less chance of being inundated with smoke.   

Let’s pray that it works out that way. Just going to enjoy the clean air while it lasts. Wether the smoke shows up in a week or 2-3 weeks out it’s probably going to happen eventually. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Things get busy at work, I miss 12 hours on the forum and come back and we are looking at some real heat building back in. Looks like NWS is predicting 90+ at SLE 6 of the next 7 days. That would get them to 15 with one day left in the month, which is also looking like a 90+. We would have to run the table to match the 17 days of 90+ from July 2018, not out of the realm of possibility. 

I was starting to think we would escape July with a max temp of 83 here but I guess not. Will be interesting to see how the month finishes up and how high it pushes the averages. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Can we have just 1 year without a perma-vortex in NE-Canada? Just one year? I don’t see why this should be so difficult.

Long range 12z GFS is the epitome of every problem we’ve had, wx-wise, over the last decade.

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2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Phoenix was 83/73 yesterday with 0.80” rainfall. Nearly a third of their YTD precip in a single day.

That whole area got hammered yesterday with some good rainfall! Must be miserable today with the high humidity levels….yuk!  Moisture currently hanging just south of Phoenix.   

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12Z ECMWF shows 78 for a high at SEA today.    It's 77 at noon.   Cold bias is back with the marine layer inversion gone.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows 78 for a high at SEA today.    It's 77 at noon.   Cold bias is back with the marine layer inversion gone.

Yeah it’s already 75 here. Beautiful day. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

So much anger on the forum this morning! Everyone should go out and play a nice round of golf and relax today! happy gilmore GIF

Lol it’s more depression than anger today. Kind of starting to seem like we may get some offshore flow and smoke filtering in eventually. Have been lucky up to this point to have lots of upper 70s and low 80s with blue skies. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol it’s more depression than anger today. Kind of starting to seem like we may get some offshore flow and smoke filtering in eventually. Have been lucky up to this point to have lots of upper 70s and low 80s with blue skies. 

And at least some sort of significant east wind event with a CCG during the next few weeks too. RIP to this area once that happens. There will be no way to stop the amount of fires that will rain into the city. Not even kidding, the University would be destroyed.

Up to 86F so it's going to be back to the 90s later this afternoon.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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