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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

They will go up. Regardless, SLE will likely remain a warm outlier.

I ran the numbers and the NWS SEA forecast would put us at +1.6 and the Euro forecast would put us at +1.9. Of course my location isnt representative of the region being less than a mile from the sound.

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here is the "misinformation" that I'm spreading, according to Andrew. Somehow I am twisting the stats to push my narrative that SLE is a warm outlier.

Monthly anomalies to date. SEA is the cool outlier. SLE is the warm outlier. The mean falls in the +1 to +2 range.

SEA: -.4

AST: -.3

Quillayute: -.1

OLM: +.3

HIO: +1.2

Hoquiam: +1.2

BLI: +1.6

VUO: +1.6

WFO Seattle: +1.8

PDX: +1.8

EUG: +2.4

MMV: +2.4

TTD: +2.6

SLE: +2.9

This is a narratives-only zone. Facts aren’t allowed here.

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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

I’ve lived here for 30 years, I don’t recall seeing her this bare.  This was taken couple days ago.

Also, if you dig deeper into the thread, the NWS said south side of the mountain at Paradise lost 3 to 4 feet of snow during the heatwave. 

9284116A-78A4-4DC0-B471-5F8BFA3333D9.jpeg

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Today adds yet another 90+ degree day. I think we passed 2018 in number of days.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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59 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here is the "misinformation" that I'm spreading, according to Andrew. Somehow I am twisting the stats to push my narrative that SLE is a warm outlier.

Monthly anomalies to date. SEA is the cool outlier. SLE is the warm outlier. The mean falls in the +1 to +2 range.

SEA: -.4

AST: -.3

Quillayute: -.1

OLM: +.3

HIO: +1.2

Hoquiam: +1.2

BLI: +1.6

VUO: +1.6

WFO Seattle: +1.8

PDX: +1.8

EUG: +2.4

MMV: +2.4

TTD: +2.6

SLE: +2.9

Looks like you did all the dirty work for me. Interestingly, I was  in the middle of doing something like this yesterday but had to wrap it up early for some business and couldn't get back to it. 

Weather happens and no way we can take it back, but the extreme heatwave skewed the data if you want to take a look at this summer up to date. I'd say it's been quite reasonable, but hey, it is what is with the narrative. 

I will say though that we still have August to go through and as it stands right now, I'm actually quite afraid for what this month will bring. 

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Looks like we hit 94F today. Nice and normal temps.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we hit 94F today. Nice and normal temps.

Just your imagination. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Bootleg Fire spawned a powerful tornado last weekend. See Fire thread for more info. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We are on the north side of Lake Stevens now just east of Everett dropping off my daughter at a friend's house.... its 80 here.   

The temperature difference is massive.  Much of Everett's waterfront is sea level, but then if you go to the south, the elevation is higher and temps can sometimes run 5 degrees warmer.  Then as you get further from the water, temps get even hotter as you pointed out.  It seems like on average (I have no evidence, just go with me here, lol) Everett is 5-10 degrees cooler than Seattle.  It is definitely cooler than Tacoma.  

Hope you had a great time at least seeing the lake. :) Beautiful day to enjoy it or see it from your car at the very least. 

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Anniversary dinner on Lake Washington waterfront in Kirkland was lovely on an 80-degree evening.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, NWbyNW said:

The temperature difference is massive.  Much of Everett's waterfront is sea level, but then if you go to the south, the elevation is higher and temps can sometimes run 5 degrees warmer.  Then as you get further from the water, temps get even hotter as you pointed out.  It seems like on average (I have no evidence, just go with me here, lol) Everett is 5-10 degrees cooler than Seattle.  It is definitely cooler than Tacoma.  

Hope you had a great time at least seeing the lake. :) Beautiful day to enjoy it or see it from your car at the very least. 

First time we have seen Lake Stevens... its was gorgeous and packed with boats!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

First time we have seen Lake Stevens... its was gorgeous and packed with boats!

There are a lot of great lakes in Snohomish County.  Lake Stevens is very built up, but if you prefer surroundings of forest, there are plenty of those lakes nearby too.  But if you live in North Bend, you already have nature's bounty all around you. :)

 

I have no scientific temperature gauges here, but decided to take a peak at what Weather Underground has for current temps in the Everett vicinity.

At my current spot, it is 60F.  I am near sea level.  Another station at the port says it is 61F.

A weather station in Downtown Everett which is a higher elevation says 64F.  At the far southeast end of the city away from the water, the temp is ranging from as low as 58F to 62F.

Now we head east to a downtown Snohomish station which says 64F.  A north Lake Stevens station reads 63F right at the water, while two nearby say 66F and 67F near Walker Hill.

I realize this isn't the optimal time to look at temperature variations in the region, but there we have it. :)

 

 

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2 hours ago, Cloud said:

I’ve lived here for 30 years, I don’t recall seeing her this bare.  This was taken couple days ago.

Also, if you dig deeper into the thread, the NWS said south side of the mountain at Paradise lost 3 to 4 feet of snow during the heatwave. 

9284116A-78A4-4DC0-B471-5F8BFA3333D9.jpeg

Wow, yeah that really shows it. I don't remember ever seeing at that bare either. I think it was maybe 2004 that I remember it getting quite exposed by the end of summer, but not that much.

A forum for the end of the world.

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3 hours ago, Cloud said:

I’ve lived here for 30 years, I don’t recall seeing her this bare.  This was taken couple days ago.

Also, if you dig deeper into the thread, the NWS said south side of the mountain at Paradise lost 3 to 4 feet of snow during the heatwave. 

9284116A-78A4-4DC0-B471-5F8BFA3333D9.jpeg

Yeah I was looking at Mount Rainier from Redmond and I have not seen so much rock this early in the summer in the 5 years Ive been here. 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hiked up to Hanging Lake near Glenwood Springs.

IMG_20210718_133239415_HDR.thumb.jpg.462370f749ed3d6c1bd265cfe6767790.jpg

IMG_20210718_134130512_HDR.thumb.jpg.0e4e537d79d6e81c5c070d06771ca431.jpg

They had a big fire there in that region last year.  When we were in Glenwood Springs the gardens were still closed.  Saw a lot of burnt vegetation along I-70.  Someone on the river posted a video of the first few minutes of the fire.  

 

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52 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

They had a big fire there in that region last year.  When we were in Glenwood Springs the gardens were still closed.  Saw a lot of burnt vegetation along I-70.  Someone on the river posted a video of the first few minutes of the fire.  

 

Yeah, it got very close to the lake and waterfalls. Could see burnt trees on both sides of trail at times, and just over the ridge from the lake.

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I know it's not PNW-related, but the monsoon is properly showing its teeth this year. Tucson is having its 12th wettest monsoon season (to date) of all time. The past few days in Phoenix have been crazy cool for this time of year, and tomorrow is likely to follow suit, with another potential sub-85 (very likely sub-90) day there. Three sub-85 days in a row have never happened before. And oh yeah, Phoenix is much wetter than average, too. It's nice to see nature+regional climatology working properly for once.

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know it's not PNW-related, but the monsoon is properly showing its teeth this year. Tucson is having its 12th wettest monsoon season (to date) of all time. The past few days in Phoenix have been crazy cool for this time of year, and tomorrow is likely to follow suit, with another potential sub-85 (very likely sub-90) day there. Three sub-85 days in a row have never happened before. And oh yeah, Phoenix is much wetter than average, too. It's nice to see nature+regional climatology working properly for once.

I’m here now. I came down for this weekend specifically but am so disappointed! I’m in Avondale though, and most of the rain and crazy weather has been further east. Hoping for something tomorrow. 

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I've missed some days due to work scheduling, but it needs to be said:

Today will be two minutes and twenty two seconds SHORTER than yesterday...

Which was two minutes and nineteen seconds SHORTER than the day before...

Which was two minutes and sixteen seconds SHORTER than the day before...

Which was, finally, two minutes and thirteen seconds SHORTER than my last check-in! 😲😆👏

If my arithmetic serves me, that ought to be around the order of nine minutes and ten seconds in total...in just four days... 😳

winter is coming GIF

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Taking the NWS forecast through the end of the month:

SLE is on pace for a July mean of 73.3, which would break the record from 2015 by 0.2F

EUG is on pace for 71.4 which would be 0.1F behind 2015 and 2nd warmest on record. 

PDX is on pace for 72.9 which would be 5th warmest on record. 1.2F behind 1985. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Redmond is on pace to finish the month at 72.6 which would top 1968 for the warmest July on record by 0.5F

Burns is on pace to finish July at 74.8 which would beat out 2006 by a whopping 2.3F. 

Ontario is on pace to finish July with an astonishing 85.6 mean, which would blast away July 2007 by 3.3F. 

Spokane is on pace to end the month with a mean of 77.4 which would blow away their previous hottest July by 2.1F. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

06z GFS was disgusting. Ensembles not fully on board.

Satellite image is equally disgusting. Literally almost the whole west is under some degree of smoke.

4E297C96-F35C-4DE8-94C2-31795EC5BF5C.jpeg

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Probably only a matter of time before the wind is not in our favor. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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19 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Satellite image is equally disgusting. Literally almost the whole west is under some degree of smoke.

4E297C96-F35C-4DE8-94C2-31795EC5BF5C.jpeg

 

May start mixing in here more and more the next few days as the winds aloft variate a bit and possibly even back to the south somewhat. Will be done with the clear blue skies for awhile once that happens.

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38 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

06z GFS was disgusting. Ensembles not fully on board.

Wow, what a blow torch. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm thinking a top 5 hot August is a pretty safe bet. Probably going to be an end to end shitshow. We really can't catch a break this year.

It is going to be great. Can't wait for people who live 2,000 miles away to tell me how normal it is. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably only a matter of time before the wind is not in our favor. 

This is what I am not looking forward to.  Any indications that we can expect smoke in Western Wa anytime soon?  I think Oregon is more likely to get it before us though.

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29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is going to be great. Can't wait for people who live 2,000 miles away to tell me how normal it is. 

Should also be quite cold and amazing in Covington.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hit our first 90 of the month yesterday at 90 degrees even. Today should be close again. Then should pick up at least another 3-4 later this week into the weekend.

Absolutely cannot wait for this summer to end, or really any summer these days. Will probably be waiting for awhile, though.

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

 

May start mixing in here more and more the next few days as the winds aloft variate a bit and possibly even back to the south somewhat. Will be done with the clear blue skies for awhile once that happens.

Yep, I was going to take time off in august for a week long camping trip but I’m going to wait until the first fall rains hit to take time off. Probably won’t be worth it in august with the smoke. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is going to be great. Can't wait for people who live 2,000 miles away to tell me how normal it is. 

We will hear how reasonable this summers been over and over still even if august ends up super hot. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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I am grateful temps have stayed mostly in the low 90s this month, better than 117! On the other hand, no real crash, just insane warm airmass moderated slightly by onshore flow. Places whose climates are influenced more by onshore flow (i.e. near the water or gaps), have seen their temps moderated more this month. Not a tough concept. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is going to be great. Can't wait for people who live 2,000 miles away to tell me how normal it is. 

Straw man. No one is saying your summer has been "normal", Andrew. Pointing out that SLE's temps do not reflect the whole westside, as they have been a warm outlier, is not saying that.

Not a difficult concept.

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will hear how reasonable this summers been over and over still even if august ends up super hot. 

Just looking at July/August 1978, nice crash that year. Holy cow the July 20-August 10th period was hot. 6 100+ days at SLE peaking with a 3 pack of 100s in early August that topped out at 106. The next two weeks ended up being cool and wet with 2.56" of rain that August. Which is more rain in one August than we have seen in the past 10 combined. :)

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Straw man. No one is saying your summer has been "normal", Andrew. Pointing out that SLE's temps do not reflect the whole westside, as they have been a warm outlier, is not saying that.

Not a difficult concept.

You are splitting hairs. Shawnigan, MUCH further north, has an even bigger departure. Eugene is on pace for their 2nd warmest July of all time, PDX 5th, not much of an outlier. And if we look at the east side, this month is blowing away pretty much every July one record over a wide area. 

 

As my previous post which you ignored, stated, it really comes down to how prone an area is to marine influence with weak onshore flow and amazingly consistently warm upper level airmasses. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are splitting hairs. Shawnigan, MUCH further north, has an even bigger departure. Eugene is on pace for their 2nd warmest July of all time, PDX 5th, not much of an outlier. 

Yes, if one completely overlooks western WA, SLE is not as much an outlier.

No doubt the eastside is a different story.

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