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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Phoenix barely escaped the 70s today w/ a high of 81F under an unusually strong monsoonal upper-level low and associated stratoform precipitation. The mean of 77F today is 18.5F below average. Their high of 81F ties 7/25/1915 for coldest daily high, as well as the third coldest July high temperature on record.

Meanwhile, KSEA reached 85F today with plentiful sunshine. KEUG soared to 94F, KSLE to 93F, and KPDX to 91F.

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24 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Have I missed much fighting? I've been busy moving into my new house in this 90° weather. Oh and my phone took a swim in the toilet.

You’ve mostly just been missing us trying to describe the severity of our weather situation to people over 1,000 miles away.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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NWS now going with a high of 97 at SLE on Thursday. Toasty!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Phoenix barely escaped the 70s today w/ a high of 81F under an unusually strong monsoonal upper-level low and associated stratoform precipitation. The mean of 77F today is 18.5F below average. Their high of 81F ties 7/25/1915 for coldest daily high, as well as the third coldest July high temperature on record.

It also followed two days with highs of 83. Three straight days in the low 80s is unprecedented for Phoenix this time of year, at least in the airport era.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Sunny in Tacoma currently but cloudy under the marine layer down south here. Had a nice sunrise too before the clouds rolled in. 

DD2F92D4-7001-4100-8960-8ACE5BE9FA83.jpeg

565B3825-B193-4677-ACD1-3B614F5E1832.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Beautiful and sunny. Up to 70F.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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After a 3-4 day bout with heat at the end of the month into first day or two of August, models seem to be converging on a cooldown of sorts. So at least at this point, it doesn't look like an extended period of hot temps.

No sign of rain, though. At least for the westside. 

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

After a 3-4 day bout with heat at the end of the month into first day or two of August, models seem to be converging on a cooldown of sorts. So at least at this point, it doesn't look like an extended period of hot temps.

No sign of rain, though. At least for the westside. 

So, slightly above normal with virtually no marine layer and continue to dry out our already cracked and withering landscape. Sounds about right.

Should be much better further north tho as usual.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

After a 3-4 day bout with heat at the end of the month into first day or two of August, models seem to be converging on a cooldown of sorts. So at least at this point, it doesn't look like an extended period of hot temps.

No sign of rain, though. At least for the westside. 

Sounds very similar to two thousand and fifteen!😱😱😱

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14 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Phoenix barely escaped the 70s today w/ a high of 81F under an unusually strong monsoonal upper-level low and associated stratoform precipitation. The mean of 77F today is 18.5F below average. Their high of 81F ties 7/25/1915 for coldest daily high, as well as the third coldest July high temperature on record.

Meanwhile, KSEA reached 85F today with plentiful sunshine. KEUG soared to 94F, KSLE to 93F, and KPDX to 91F.

I'm really hoping we can tap into some of that monsoonal goodness later in August. Don't even care if it gets hoomid.

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PDX only 77 at noon. SLE at 81, a few degrees below yesterdays pace. EUG sitting at 85, they should easily get to 90 today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Whoaaa.... Region 3.4 down to -0.5C. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Going to Watershed this weekend....going to be hot to say the least 

Looks like a solid lineup. If you mix large quantities of light beer in with the hard alcohol you should stay hydrated. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

I'm really hoping we can tap into some of that monsoonal goodness later in August. Don't even care if it gets hoomid.

Humidity, even in the absence of precipitation, is a substantial dampener on fire weather.

There’s a good reason large, prominent conifers grow naturally (for now!) all the way down into California, despite our lengthy and bone-dry Mediterranean summer climate. Not only are our marine layers an effective cooling method; the humidity they provide gives our native species an ambient water source during our natural dry bouts, as well as a cap on destructive fire potential.

It’s also all the more reason to be concerned by our sharp decline in marine pushes over the last 50 years. Such an innocuous change could result in vast consequences to our local ecology, and in many cases, it already is.

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Escape plan for Aug 1-3: Ocean Shores. 

Don’t look too bad inlands for these dates but 63-64F with clouds out at the coast is what I need right now. 

I was very pleased to wake up to a marine layer out on the island this morning. Im trying to go to ocean shores the 20-22nd. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Humidity, even in the absence of precipitation, is a substantial dampener on fire weather.

There’s a good reason large, prominent conifers grow naturally (for now!) all the way down into California, despite our lengthy and bone-dry Mediterranean summer climate. Not only are our marine layers an effective cooling method; the humidity they provide gives our native species an ambient water source during our natural dry bouts, as well as a cap on destructive fire potential.

It’s also all the more reason to be concerned by our sharp decline in marine pushes over the last 50 years. Such an innocuous change could result in vast consequences to our local ecology, and in many cases, it already is.

Based on local records it appears that summers in the first half of the 20th century were drier and sunnier than in the second half the century around here.    Its hard to say what the long-term normal is, but maybe dry, sunny summers are more normal than the 1980s and 1990s would lead you to believe.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on local records it appears that summers in the first half of the 20th century were drier and sunnier than in the second half the century around here.    Its hard to say what the long-term normal is, but maybe dry, sunny summers are more normal than the 1980s and 1990s would lead you to believe.   

This isn't the case at all. The reason you have this impression is because the local station you like to use was seriously overexposed earlier in the 20th century. Summers in the second half of the 20th century were generally both warmer and sunnier than in the first half, and precip has shown essentially no trend going back to the late 1800s with the possible exception of the last decade or so (though that could easily just be a random blip like we saw in the mid 1920s through the early 30s). There's also fact that September trended much more summerlike over the course of the 20th century.

Here are the average summer temps and precip for the Puget Sound and Willamette Valley 

image.png.0a7f0680d299a4638eb125e28a712780.png

image.png.a52e50ae23494680f83fd70343e4e702.png

image.png.3a1eea179d9f8082af027d2cced9b01f.png

image.png.bdc61cc5142ae9a5125a28af10015f08.png

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6 minutes ago, James Jones said:

This isn't the case at all. The reason you have this impression is because the local station you like to use was seriously overexposed earlier in the 20th century. Summers in the second half of the 20th century were generally both warmer and sunnier than in the first half, and precip has shown essentially no trend going back to the late 1800s with the possible exception of the last decade or so (though that could easily just be a random blip like we saw in the mid 1920s through the early 30s). There's also fact that September trended much more summerlike over the course of the 20th century.

Here are the average summer temps and precip for the Puget Sound and Willamette Valley 

image.png.0a7f0680d299a4638eb125e28a712780.png

image.png.a52e50ae23494680f83fd70343e4e702.png

image.png.3a1eea179d9f8082af027d2cced9b01f.png

image.png.bdc61cc5142ae9a5125a28af10015f08.png

I definitely agree that thermometers were over-exposed back then... I am taking that into account.    

There seemed to be much longer dry streaks earlier in the century.   And even with an over-exposed thermometer you can still tell when it was clear or cloudy by the chilly overnight lows during the dry periods.     

It is most certainly warmer now than it was back then... but long dry streaks were not that unusual.    They became more unusual in the last half of the 20th century.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And we have reached 90F!!!

CB882D5B-95E2-4A57-9501-FFE7D085D506.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Whoaaa.... Region 3.4 down to -0.5C. 

The readings seem to vary. I do believe that the weeklies go through last Wednesday. There has been some warming since then. Your numbers came from the Climate Prediction Center weekly discussion.

nino34 (2).png

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And we have reached 90F!!!

CB882D5B-95E2-4A57-9501-FFE7D085D506.jpeg

You did it! SLE closing fast! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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SLE has just hit 90. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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