Jump to content
The Weather Forums

July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Solid collapse of the heat wave by Sunday on the 18z. Two day event?

8 day event south of Portland. 

7/24: 94

7/25: 94

7/26: 90+

7/27: 91

7/28: 93

7/29: 97

7/30: 97

7/31: 94

  • Sun 1
  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

8 day event south of Portland. 

7/24: 94

7/25: 94

7/26: 90+

7/27: 91

7/28: 93

7/29: 97

7/30: 97

7/31: 94

I've become numb to heat events that something near 100 feels extraordinary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

8 day event south of Portland. 

7/24: 94

7/25: 94

7/26: 90+

7/27: 91

7/28: 93

7/29: 97

7/30: 97

7/31: 94

Salem has a legit shot at staying in the 80’s tomorrow.  

  • Snow 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Salem has a legit shot at staying in the 80’s tomorrow.  

It's possible. Nice to break these up into separate events I suppose. 

If SLE can run the table they will match 2018 for # of 90+ days in July. 

Hitting #12 today matches how many 90+ days they had in July 2015... Either way that will be easily surpassed this month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like temps could cool to near average by day 10. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Awoke at 3 am so decided to just head up to Rainer this morning.  So I was already up there during that first shot you took!   Smoke free ! 

D944EDAA-F42A-41BB-B739-70EE0589C03C.jpeg

Incredible shot. Where was it taken?

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Sunrise on the northeast side of Rainer.   Beautiful views from everywhere! 
Also had a friend join me 😁

40F608A7-015F-4447-A02C-7336D4633E2A.jpeg

091367D3-48F7-49A5-823C-D81E0625F927.jpeg

Love Sunrise. You can pretty much just wander from the parking lot and find incredible views. Did the Mount Fremont Lookout Trail a few years ago. Spectacular. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Love Sunrise. You can pretty much just wander from the parking lot and find incredible views. Did the Mount Fremont Lookout Trail a few years ago. Spectacular. 

Did that first thing this morning for the first time.   Then proceeded to the Burroughs Mountains trail.  Spectacular area and so close to home ! 
 

Better add some weather input for today 😁

82/56 today currently sitting at 78*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

HCS Watch issued for tomorrow!

ECMWF says we might avoid that disaster tomorrow...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-toa_brightness-7430400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on local records it appears that summers in the first half of the 20th century were drier and sunnier than in the second half the century around here.    Its hard to say what the long-term normal is, but maybe dry, sunny summers are more normal than the 1980s and 1990s would lead you to believe.   

The 1980s and 1990s weren't exactly cool summers either, especially compared to the 1950s-60s.

They just seem positively frigid in comparison to 2014-now.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So I really appreciate how much enthusiasm you all have for weather and atmospheric analysis. I'm mostly a lurker here aside from when large events happen (like most I would imagine). And frankly, I graduated this past June with a degree in history so I'm no scientist. That being said my interest in weather is drawn from my history studies -- specifically the impacts weather has had on shaping humanity in a variety of different ways. All of this being said I think I'm beginning to pick up a few things and if I'm not correct please correct me so I can move forward with at the very least a basic understanding of both large scale and small scale events.

When you guy's refer to 'troughing' is it related to a low pressure system descending from the north and bringing cold air? Does it require the absence of a high pressure system? I remember a few years ago there was hurricane Dorian (I think that was the one) which was essentially stopped by a brick wall of a high pressure system over Florida which caused it to sit over the Bahamas for a few days. Is there a link between the troughing you all refer to and the jet-stream diverting its course on a southerly direction, creating a void of low pressure and pulling down the aforementioned cool air?

If you read through all of this I really appreciate it, I'm trying to learn bit by bit. Maybe one day I can be a solid contributor to these discussions! :)

PS: Sorry if I rambled a bit I've had a few IPA's

Edited by UWStudent15
Adding an addendem due to my buzz
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, UWStudent15 said:

So I really appreciate how much enthusiasm you all have for weather and atmospheric analysis. I'm mostly a lurker here aside from when large events happen (like most I would imagine). And frankly, I graduated this past June with a degree in history so I'm no scientist. That being said my interest in weather is drawn from my history studies -- specifically the impacts weather has had on shaping humanity in a variety of different ways. All of this being said I think I'm beginning to pick up a few things and if I'm not correct please correct me so I can move forward with at the very least a basic understanding of both large scale and small scale events.

When you guy's refer to 'troughing' is it related to a low pressure system descending from the north and bringing cold air? Does it require the absence of a high pressure system? I remember a few years ago there was hurricane Dorian (I think that was the one) which was essentially stopped by a brick wall of a high pressure system over Florida which caused it to sit over the Bahamas for a few days. Is there a link between the troughing you all refer to and the jet-stream diverting its course on a southerly direction, creating a void of low pressure and pulling down the aforementioned cool air?

If you read through all of this I really appreciate it, I'm trying to learn bit by bit. Maybe one day I can be a solid contributor to these discussions! :)

PS: Sorry if I rambled a bit I've had a few IPA's

Troughing is just a broad term for a dip in the jet steam with some form of cyclonic flow and relatively cool upper levels.

  • Like 3

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty decent jet for early August out in la la land.

A cool August shocker would be fitting given the rhetoric in here of late.

  • Like 2
  • Storm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, UWStudent15 said:

So I really appreciate how much enthusiasm you all have for weather and atmospheric analysis. I'm mostly a lurker here aside from when large events happen (like most I would imagine). And frankly, I graduated this past June with a degree in history so I'm no scientist. That being said my interest in weather is drawn from my history studies -- specifically the impacts weather has had on shaping humanity in a variety of different ways. All of this being said I think I'm beginning to pick up a few things and if I'm not correct please correct me so I can move forward with at the very least a basic understanding of both large scale and small scale events.

When you guy's refer to 'troughing' is it related to a low pressure system descending from the north and bringing cold air? Does it require the absence of a high pressure system? I remember a few years ago there was hurricane Dorian (I think that was the one) which was essentially stopped by a brick wall of a high pressure system over Florida which caused it to sit over the Bahamas for a few days. Is there a link between the troughing you all refer to and the jet-stream diverting its course on a southerly direction, creating a void of low pressure and pulling down the aforementioned cool air?

If you read through all of this I really appreciate it, I'm trying to learn bit by bit. Maybe one day I can be a solid contributor to these discussions! :)

PS: Sorry if I rambled a bit I've had a few IPA's

Hey my degree was in history too. I actually found this site when trying to learn more about historic weather for the PNW.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z ECMWF shows 97 at PDX on Thursday and 102 on Friday... seems pretty likely July will be another month with a high temp over 100 there. 

ECMWF also shows lots of high clouds on Saturday keep the temp down into the mid 90s.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, UWStudent15 said:

So I really appreciate how much enthusiasm you all have for weather and atmospheric analysis. I'm mostly a lurker here aside from when large events happen (like most I would imagine). And frankly, I graduated this past June with a degree in history so I'm no scientist. That being said my interest in weather is drawn from my history studies -- specifically the impacts weather has had on shaping humanity in a variety of different ways. All of this being said I think I'm beginning to pick up a few things and if I'm not correct please correct me so I can move forward with at the very least a basic understanding of both large scale and small scale events.

When you guy's refer to 'troughing' is it related to a low pressure system descending from the north and bringing cold air? Does it require the absence of a high pressure system? I remember a few years ago there was hurricane Dorian (I think that was the one) which was essentially stopped by a brick wall of a high pressure system over Florida which caused it to sit over the Bahamas for a few days. Is there a link between the troughing you all refer to and the jet-stream diverting its course on a southerly direction, creating a void of low pressure and pulling down the aforementioned cool air?

If you read through all of this I really appreciate it, I'm trying to learn bit by bit. Maybe one day I can be a solid contributor to these discussions! :)

PS: Sorry if I rambled a bit I've had a few IPA's

First off, glad to have you here! Awesome to see new faces streaming in.

There are a couple answers to your question.

The functional/"What does this mean for my weather?" answer (what I'm assuming you're looking for) is that troughing is associated with a southward "dip" in the jet stream+storm track; the inverse of a "ridge", which is a northward surge in the jet. Troughing is (usually!) associated with cooler, wetter weather and is what us snow weenies look out for in the winter, since they can bring down arctic air from Canada. There is a more technical answer to this question, since troughing is a real meteorological term that is associated with physics; although you do not need to learn this, since local weather knowledge+pattern recognition goes a long way, and is in most cases all you really need.

--

If you are interested, the more technical/"correct" answer to this involves the literal thickness of the atmosphere. Warm air being less dense than cold air means that it literally takes up more volume per unit mass comparatively. This is significant because we know that due to gravity, the atmosphere exerts a certain amount of pressure at any given point on or above earth's surface. We can measure atmospheric pressure using a device called a barometer, which uses mercury to determine just how heavy the atmosphere is at that location; usually measured in millibars (mb) due to how fine that unit of measurement is. The higher you go, the less pressure is exerted, since there is less atmosphere weighing down from above (the rest is below.) At sea level, where most of the world lives, the atmosphere exerts roughly 1000mb of pressure.

For the sake of simplicity, let's say we have two identical airmasses, except one is 5°C cooler all the way up (surface to tropopause) than the other. We'll call the cooler one our "trough" sample. Now since we know that cold air contains less volume than warm air due to its higher density, we can infer that our trough airmass will be denser, and consequentially less spacious, than our warm airmass. To understand why that's important, let's compare what's going on inside our two examples. Starting at the surface, in this case sea level, we find the same measurement between the two (close to 1000mb), since in both cases the same amount of mass is weighing down from above.

But as we increase our elevation, at the same rate, we'll find that the amount of atmospheric pressure exerted begins to diverge. We'll notice that the colder airmass will have a lower atmospheric pressure than the warmer airmass, even at the same altitude, let's say 15,000 feet. In other words, we do not need to go as high up to find a given pressure reading than in the warm airmass. The elevation at which, say, 500mb exists, is literally lower in a cooler airmass than in a warm one. If you were to make a cross-section, with x representing a slice of the surface and y as altitude, you'd find that there would be a "dip" in 500mb elevation where the airmass was cooler. Hence, a "trough"!

Why is this? Well again, we need to think about our airmasses in terms of both temperature and volume. As we raise our barometer higher into the trough airmass, we'll find that we're rising above more air molecules at a faster rate than in the warm airmass, since the air is cooler and denser. To get a better idea of why this is, I threw together a diagram, since I am not too elegant with words. The same concepts are there, but presented visually. Essentially the term trough in an atmospheric context is used when thinking in terms of pressure, like a topographical map. Wikipedia has a great article on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trough_(meteorology).

trough.png.372e55598f08995a8ac61df2d9baf42d.png

  • Like 5
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z ECMWF is not going in a good direction for next week... looks like more heat coming.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

What a comeback! Go Mariners!

My first game of the season and they did not disappoint. Atmosphere was great and so was the weather! Best game I’ve been to in a LONG LONG time. 

EB63FD01-49DA-4239-84BA-A914D5B6850B.jpeg

  • Like 5
  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think it’s safe to say there might be some PATTERN VOLATILITY coming up. Definitely a big shift from a very blah July.

August sh*tbox! 🥰

  • Sun 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • iFred unpinned and pinned this topic
  • iFred unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...