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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Models are all over the place after day 6.

Might be the result of typhoon activity picking up in the WPAC.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z EPS took a pretty decisive step toward keeping the trough well offshore following the heatwave (which means the heatwave wouldn’t really end) And so it begins.

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Basically take whatever worst case nightmare scenario there is for our ecosystem and the most crooked, one sided departure from anything resembling climo that you can imagine and you have a great weather prediction tool lately.

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Low of 58 this morning in Tacoma. Looks like they’re on the edge of the Marine layer this morning but we’re socked in and foggy here on the island. Heck of a sunset and moonrise last night too. 

C27D668E-008C-4650-8CE9-66BFA3F7D730.jpeg

225669C7-EAD3-4DBC-9909-B4C0A520DAF7.jpeg

C15E55BD-CF30-4866-9F2D-C2225228A31C.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Played soccer last night and there was a pretty thick haze over Baker, I'm assuming smoke is starting to move into the area.

Speaking of which, can someone provide me a good link to the smoke forecast models?  I have a good friend who is a photographer, and he is headed to Glacier UP next week, and I wanted to pass it along to him so he has an idea of what to expect.  He said he is already "financially committed" to the trip.  It looks like they are having some good days based on talking to my son and posts from Kayla.  

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That was a warm euro run. Has 2 days in the 70s then lots of low to mid 80s. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

00z EPS took a pretty decisive step toward keeping the trough well offshore following the heatwave (which means the heatwave wouldn’t really end) And so it begins.

Probably no rain or sub 85 weather here any time soon. Might be 3-4 weeks before we see the latter and likely at least that long for the former.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Probably no rain or sub 85 weather here any time soon. Might be 3-4 weeks before we see the latter and likely at least that long for the former.

God I hope not. Seems like we’re going to pay for July being not “too bad”. Atleast it wasn’t up here this month through today but it’ll be warm here to finish. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

God I hope not. Seems like we’re going to pay for July being not “too bad”. Atleast it wasn’t up here this month through today but it’ll be warm here to finish. 

I expect August will likely be 31 days of above average temperatures here, barring any smokeouts.

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8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Played soccer last night and there was a pretty thick haze over Baker, I'm assuming smoke is starting to move into the area.

Speaking of which, can someone provide me a good link to the smoke forecast models?  I have a good friend who is a photographer, and he is headed to Glacier UP next week, and I wanted to pass it along to him so he has an idea of what to expect.  He said he is already "financially committed" to the trip.  It looks like they are having some good days based on talking to my son and posts from Kayla.  

Here is the link to the Canadian smoke model... only goes out 3 days though.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/index_e.html

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Played soccer last night and there was a pretty thick haze over Baker, I'm assuming smoke is starting to move into the area.

Speaking of which, can someone provide me a good link to the smoke forecast models?  I have a good friend who is a photographer, and he is headed to Glacier UP next week, and I wanted to pass it along to him so he has an idea of what to expect.  He said he is already "financially committed" to the trip.  It looks like they are having some good days based on talking to my son and posts from Kayla.  

HRRR smoke model is pretty good

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

Current image shows the smoke mixing in a bit on the westside

trc1_int_f01.png

 

Tomorrow will probably be the smokiest day of the year so far for Western OR as more gets mixed in. Not terrible yet but will be increasingly noticeable.

trc1_int_f36.png

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Seeing a lot on social media about lightning over the Cascades last night. Heard of at least one fire start near Oakridge. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I expect August will likely be 31 days of above average temperatures here, barring any smokeouts.

First week of august looks pretty good warm…but we will see how this plays out with the models with the energy in the western pacific…I’d bet on warmth though since this is a 21st century summer. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably no rain or sub 85 weather here any time soon. Might be 3-4 weeks before we see the latter and likely at least that long for the former.

At face value, almost everything other than the Euro op would give you at least a couple sub-85 days in the next 10.

A forum for the end of the world.

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Could be different down here. Just had two top tier months in a row. Three probably has never happened before.

2014 or 2015 definitely did it at some point. July-October 2014 or basically the whole year in 2015.

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2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I like this line of thundershowers all training into Klamath County from Red Bluff, CA.

KMAX_loop2.gif

Hopefully it brings plentiful rain. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At face value, almost everything other than the Euro op would give you at least a couple sub-85 days in the next 10.

Alas, the Euro is the model with which we compare others to.

I expect the 12z GFS will be significantly warmer again.

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

HRRR smoke model is pretty good

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

Current image shows the smoke mixing in a bit on the westside

trc1_int_f01.png

 

Tomorrow will probably be the smokiest day of the year so far for Western OR as more gets mixed in. Not terrible yet but will be increasingly noticeable.

trc1_int_f36.png

That would make sense from what I saw last night, I meant to snag a picture at the half or after the game, but I injured my hand during the first half trying to stop a shot, so it slipped my mind.  It wasn't a ton of smoke, but there was a definite brown haze in the air.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

2014 or 2015 definitely did it at some point. July-October 2014 or basically the whole year in 2015.

Aug 2015 was a complete turnaround from the 2 before at only +0.8 anomaly. But that could have been an isolated factoid. Even Aug 2014 was not statistically hot in K-Falls. 

Oct 2014 had some warm days but featured a healthy amount of rainfall regionally. 

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4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

That would make sense from what I saw last night, I meant to snag a picture at the half or after the game, but I injured my hand during the first half trying to stop a shot, so it slipped my mind.  It wasn't a ton of smoke, but there was a definite brown haze in the air.

Definitely could see the haze obscuring the mountains a bit yesterday down here.

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12Z GFS looks much weaker with the troughing early next week compared to the last few runs.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 58 this morning in Tacoma. Looks like they’re on the edge of the Marine layer this morning but we’re socked in and foggy here on the island. Heck of a sunset and moonrise last night too. 

C27D668E-008C-4650-8CE9-66BFA3F7D730.jpeg

225669C7-EAD3-4DBC-9909-B4C0A520DAF7.jpeg

C15E55BD-CF30-4866-9F2D-C2225228A31C.jpeg

Had to come up to Seattle today. Foggy at my place when I left at 7:30 but sunny at Cheney stadium. Definitely right on the edge of the marine layer. 

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Let's put things in perspective:

We had the driest spring on record by a large margin. Our all-time high temperature was shattered last month by a large margin and was broken on 3 consecutive days. June was the warmest of all-time. 43 out of the past 56 days encompassing all of June and July have been warmer than normal. July will be one of the warmest on record. August will begin very warm. We are in the midst of one of the longest dry spells in history. 

There is no other way to spin this other than it being historically warm and dry. To top it off, there is endless warmth and drought for the foreseeable future. 

This is all for PDX specifically, but region-wide, the bigger picture is the same. 

 

 

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UGLY

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Trough gets close in about 2 weeks. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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41 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Let's put things in perspective:

We had the driest spring on record by a large margin. Our all-time high temperature was shattered last month by a large margin and was broken on 3 consecutive days. June was the warmest of all-time. 43 out of the past 56 days encompassing all of June and July have been warmer than normal. July will be one of the warmest on record. August will begin very warm. We are in the midst of one of the longest dry spells in history. 

There is no other way to spin this other than it being historically warm and dry. To top it off, there is endless warmth and drought for the foreseeable future. 

This is all for PDX specifically, but region-wide, the bigger picture is the same. 

 

 

You forgot about the Sunday curse 😭 

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For the first half of the year... Sunday was comically cursed in the Seattle area in an otherwise sunny, dry late winter, spring. and early summer.    June 13th was the last day of that curse when once again Sunday was the rainiest and cloudiest day of the week.    It was just a statistical anomaly.    I looked back at local records and it rained on just about 80% of Sundays from the beginning of the year through the middle of June.   But it was not unusually wet in that period overall.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Sunday curse?

 

See above.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Sunday curse?

 

There were a couple Sundays over the spring where we fell a little short of the expected 10+ degrees above average with blazing sunshine from dawn until dusk. I’m still talking it over with my therapist.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

There were a couple Sundays over the spring where we fell a little short of the expected 10+ degrees above average with blazing sunshine from dawn until dusk. I’m still talking it over with my therapist.

It was a noticeable statistical anomaly.    And its really fun to trigger you.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There were a couple Sundays over the spring where we fell a little short of the expected 10+ degrees above average with blazing sunshine from dawn until dusk. I’m still talking it over with my therapist.

Haha. I see.

Tim, let's see your statistics.

I would say that we have been in the Sunday-Saturday curse since February. See my statistics above.

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4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Haha. I see.

Tim, let's see your statistics.

I would say that we have been in the Sunday-Saturday curse since February. See my statistics above.

Yes... I did not dispute your statistics.   And of course its been different down there.   As usual.   

Its just a funny little quirk that Sunday was by far the most favored day for rain up here during the first half of the year.   I probably would not have noticed it had it been a Wednesday.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I recall some isolated +300-400% precip values in Aug 2014 down here. If it's going to be anything like that month there were no dry storms I can remember in the second half of that summer.

Hey, it's better than 31 more days of RH under 10 and 90+ degree highs... 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It was a noticeable statistical anomaly.    And its really fun to trigger you.   😀

Looks like all King County stations are now below average for precip YTD 😀

Looks like at least a half foot deficit at Cedar Lake as the water levels drop amidst a historically dry spring/summer there (0.02" MTD) 😀😀

Looks like 2/3 of the last year has now been dry there 

😀😀😀😀😀

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like all King County stations are now below average for precip YTD 😀

Looks like at least a half foot deficit at Cedar Lake as the water levels drop amidst a historically dry spring/summer there (0.02" MTD) 😀😀

Looks like 2/3 of the last year has now been dry there 

😀😀😀😀😀

Yes... its been dry lately!    Let me know where I have said otherwise.   Its been a very sunny year overall and its been extremely dry since the middle of June.  

And guess what... Sunday was still the rainiest day of the week during the first half of the year with rain on almost 80% of Sundays through mid June.   

Both are true.    

I did not bring the Sunday curse today... but it did actually happen!  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Time to buckle up for the Euro. Any bets on how many hundreds of miles offshore it stalls the next trough?

Keep in mind ten days ago there were runs that showed troughing over us now. That trough verified about 500 miles NW of us and is about to pump up our next heat event.

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