July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

I did same thing!

Although I wasn’t able to draw a map of the US at age three, because I wasn’t Rain Man.

My nephew knew every US capitol at the age of 3. Freaky.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

My nephew knew every US capitol at the age of 3. Freaky.

Impressive. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I did draw lots of weather maps at a really young age.   My mom has weather maps in a box from when I was 3 or 4 years old and I could free hand draw a map of the US with all the states and always put a snowstorm right over Minnesota.   

That is so cool, I'm glad I wasn't the only lunatic who did that as a kid. Lots of snow on mine too

Now that I mention it, I might have them in the attic. Worth a look...

[Cloud]

To be absolutely fair to Jim 

1) He never implied it would be wet. Don't know where people get this from, him being excited about a troughy period doesn't necessarily means wet. 

2) He said that this month would NOT be a "torch" and shot down the "top 5 summer" talks early in the month (still too soon to know). The only problem when he makes a statement like this and not refer to a specific location, he's painting with a broad brush. For the Western WA and Puget Sound region, he's been absolutely right, it hasn't been a torch and it's been relatively normal. The problem wherein lies with the WV and OR folks, because it's been a different kind of weather down there and I understand he would rub people the wrong way when say something like this. Don't really expect him to say anything different for that area because he apparently doesn't know the difference between Springfield, Eugene and Salem. Best to just simply assume he imply Western WA/Puget Sound region. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

Today will be two minutes and four seconds SHORTER than yesterday!

[Tyler Mode]

I was just comparing my stats for July and August.  Although August tends to be warmer overall, and about the same precipitation averages, I think the lowering sun angle and less time spent during the warm part of the day really makes it feel like the end of summer.

My July high/low temperature trends from the 1st through the 31st are trend up a little, whereas in August there is a much more pronounced trend downward.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like another sunny start to the day for most folks. Should start seeing the marine layer become more of an influence after today, at least for a few days.

The ECMWF did a great job showing the marine layer being mostly wiped out.    And it has adjusted to the trough being a little farther east and shows more marine layer the next 2 days... but it only "sticks" for the day in King County.      A situation in which the WA coast is sunnier than the Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

And then Thursday and Friday are similar to today in terms of marine layer... maybe through the weekend as well. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 52 this morning. Cooler than most mornings we’ve had since late june. 

[Winterdog]

Had a low of 47.  Currently a beautiful 61 and still very green here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 54F. Beautiful morning.

[Phil]

Nice 12z GEFS run for the westside. Persistent marine influence through at least D9.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nice 12z GEFS run for the westside. Persistent marine influence through at least D10.

Such a nice balance... enough troughing to keep the smoke completely out of western WA and OR and yet is persistently sunny and pleasant.  

[TT-SEA]

Already 75 here.

[Deweydog]

Something kinda interesting to track the rest of the month…

PDX currently is running with a July range of max temps at 75-90 degrees Fahrenheit. Most progs keep things in that range for the foreseeable future, with a slight nod toward sneaking in a low 70’s.

If they maintain, it will be unprecedented by a decent margin. Years with a margin around 20 are even quite rare.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Maxed out at 78 yesterday but 74 at noon today.

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Something kinda interesting to track the rest of the month…

PDX currently is running with a July range of max temps at 75-90 degrees Fahrenheit. Most progs keep things in that range for the foreseeable future, with a slight nod toward sneaking in a low 70’s.

If they maintain, it will be unprecedented by a decent margin. Years with a margin around 20 are even quite rare.  

Max high temps here have been 69-83 so far this month. Hasn’t really been any extremes either way just leaning warmer than normal atleast here. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Something kinda interesting to track the rest of the month…

PDX currently is running with a July range of max temps at 75-90 degrees Fahrenheit. Most progs keep things in that range for the foreseeable future, with a slight nod toward sneaking in a low 70’s.

If they maintain, it will be unprecedented by a decent margin. Years with a margin around 20 are even quite rare.  

12Z ECMWF keeps it right in that range...

[Jesse]

Sunny and up to 75 here after a low of 57. Looking forward to a more extensive marine layer tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF keeps it right in that range...

It’s made more interesting that this month is coming on the heels of one that produced the greatest monthly max range on record at 53 degrees (63-116).

[Cloud]

It’s worth noting that through yesterday, SEA is running below normal for BOTH nighttime low and daytime high averages. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 82F and very pleasant.

[Jesse]

Nice looking 12z Euro run. Overall trends seem to be keeping the 4CH displaced slightly eastward. Models have had a recent tendency to try to show it moving back our way and then will correct in the mid range. Great pattern for keeping the heat and smoke at bay, although not great for meaningful precip chances. Mean trough is too far north and west of us.

As stable as it’s been, we will probably see the pattern flip to something different at some point in early August, IMO. And I think we will see another heat event or two before we see any rain, unfortunately.

 

[TT-SEA]

54 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Something kinda interesting to track the rest of the month…

PDX currently is running with a July range of max temps at 75-90 degrees Fahrenheit. Most progs keep things in that range for the foreseeable future, with a slight nod toward sneaking in a low 70’s.

If they maintain, it will be unprecedented by a decent margin. Years with a margin around 20 are even quite rare.  

12Z EPS gets close on the lower end and then does just barely sneak past the upper end of that range later on... 

 

[Front Ranger]

Fourth straight low in the 40s for OLM.

[Deweydog]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS gets close on the lower end and then does just barely sneak past the upper end of that range later on... 

 

Wednesday has a good shot at being in the low 70’s. There’s still some wiggle room at this point as the only three years with a sub-20 degree spread are 1957, 1993 and 2013.  All were at 19.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE up to 82, running +3 on yesterday. Good shot they sneak in another 90. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Wednesday has a good shot at being in the low 70’s. There’s still some wiggle room at this point as the only three years with a sub-20 degree spread are 1957, 1993 and 2013.  All were at 19.

I like the odds of at least 75 on Wednesday... ECMWF shows full sun down there by mid-afternoon.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE up to 82, running +3 on yesterday. Good shot they sneak in another 90. 

Tiger Woods may hit triple digits.

[Front Ranger]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE up to 82, running +3 on yesterday. Good shot they sneak in another 90. 

They have a warmer anomaly than PDX by 1.5 degrees this month. Last month they were much closer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

They have a warmer anomaly than PDX by 1.5 degrees this month. Last month they were much closer.

What can I say. The continued warmth across the West has been impressive. 

[BLI snowman]

Euro actually has some showers around on Sunday in western WA, decent convergence zone signature. 

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What can I say. The continued warmth across the West has been impressive. 

It has. Not nearly as impressive as 2018, 2015, etc for the western PNW lowlands, though. 

Kinda interesting, looking like it could be one of the smallest differences in average temperature between June and July in quite awhile (for many places). At this point, would have to go back to the 1980s to find something comparable.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro actually has some showers around on Sunday in western WA, decent convergence zone signature. 

Just noticed that... the Sunday curse is back! 

 

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It has. Not nearly as impressive as 2018, 2015, etc for the western PNW lowlands, though. 

Kinda interesting, looking like it could be one of the smallest differences in average temperature between June and July in quite awhile (for many places). At this point, would have to go back to the 1980s to find something comparable.

Obviously a record warm June with an average temp close to that of an average July won't have a lot of trouble doing that. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just noticed that... the Sunday curse is back! 

 

Yea, what a curse it would be to get some rain. How horrible.

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Obviously a record warm June with an average temp close to that of an average July won't have a lot of trouble doing that. 

Tell that to 2015.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Nice looking 12z Euro run. Overall trends seem to be keeping the 4CH displaced slightly eastward. Models have had a recent tendency to try to show it moving back our way and then will correct in the mid range. Great pattern for keeping the heat and smoke at bay, although not great for meaningful precip chances. Mean trough is too far north and west of us.

As stable as it’s been, we will probably see the pattern flip to something different at some point in early August, IMO. And I think we will see another heat event or two before we see any rain, unfortunately.

 

I’ll go with mid-August for the next heatwave.

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll go with mid-August for the next heatwave.

To kick off our late August/September furnace right?

[TacomaWaWx]

79 here…should be 80 #15 of the year soon.