July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surprisingly cloudy this morning. Sub-80 high?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Medford running ahead of July 2015 right now. Yet some on here would like us to believe this month has been cool regionally. 

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Medford running ahead of July 2015 right now. Yet some on here would like us to believe this month has been cool regionally. 

Literally no one has said that.

But comparing this year to 2015 is absurd. Pattern is massively different, if not inverted in some respects going forward into late July and early August.

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s been drizzling all morning but not enough to wet the ground still. It’s nice to see atleast we’ve only had a little bit of drizzle on 2 or 3 mornings since mid June. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Literally no one has said that.

But comparing this year to 2015 is absurd. Pattern is massively different, if not inverted in some respects going forward into late July and early August.

I deal in observed weather. It has been HOTTTTTT!

[Phil]

That pattern in the medium/long range is going to flood the nation with smog.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s been drizzling all morning but not enough to wet the ground still. It’s nice to see atleast we’ve only had a little bit of drizzle on 2 or 3 mornings since mid June. 

Sun is trying to come out here and its 67 in North Bend now.

But I see it looks quite wet in Bellevue...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was looking at North Bend on the Oregon Coast. They are sitting at a 0.0 departure for the month. Mean temp so far this month is 59.8. Sounds so heavenly. 3 days on the Central Coast last week was not enough, I think I have two trips over there planned for August. 

[Cloud]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun is trying to come out here and its 67 in North Bend now.

But I see it looks quite wet in Bellevue...

 

Just amazing what the marine influence can do right? Especially when it comes to the models. This was totally unexpected and there’s no way they are able to pick up the drizzle. I mean, this stuff dont even show up on the radar. 

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and 75F here.   Amazing how often the Puget sound gets socked in with low clouds and drizzle. 

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Just amazing what the marine influence can do right? Especially when it comes to the models. This was totally unexpected and there’s no way they are able to pick up the drizzle. I mean, this stuff dont even show up on the radar. 

Actually... just looked back at the 12Z ECMWF run from yesterday and it did show precip around Seattle this morning.   It also showed it being drier out here.   It did quite well... just did not notice it.  

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Sunny and 75F here.   Amazing how often the Puget sound gets socked in with low clouds and drizzle. 

Chehalis Gap... its a curse in the winter and the summer!   

They need to put up some bigger hills west of Olympia.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some patches of blue sky starting to appear. 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Chehalis Gap... its a curse in the winter and the summer!   

They need to put up some bigger hills west of Olympia.  

Also those warm waters in the strait of Georgia seem to repel low clouds.  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Also those warm waters in the strait of Georgia seem to repel low clouds.  

Also related to geography.    NW flow off the coast bypasses VI and there are also mountains there blocking it from coming in from the SW.     No such luck down here.  Although the ridge behind our house is often a good block when onshore flow is weak.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also related to geography.    NW flow off the coast bypasses VI and there are also mountains there blocking it from coming in from the SW.     No such luck down here.  Although the ridge behind our house is often a good block when onshore flow is weak.

[TT-SEA]

Satellite tells the tale... NW flow off the coast which then curls inland through the Chehalis Gap and up into the Seattle area with nothing to block it.   You can also see the mountains on VI blocking the clouds from coming inland.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Still lots of goldilocks weather... and much more to come.   And this keeps the smoke away which is real blessing right now.

[Cloud]

63 at noon. Cloud deck is still quite low as evident by the planes being above the clouds approaching SeaTac from here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

63 at noon. Cloud deck is still quite low as evident by the planes being above the clouds approaching SeaTac from here. 

62 here. Looks like the cloud deck will hold on a while longer. It drizzled all the way up to 11am or so wasn’t enough to wet anything down though. 

[Omegaraptor]

Marine layer breaking up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunny now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

73 at SLE, so they should easily top 80. Looks like we should be back up to 90 for Friday and Saturday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heartbreaking. 

https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2021/07/wells-run-dry-in-many-klamath-basin-homes.html

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually... just looked back at the 12Z ECMWF run from yesterday and it did show precip around Seattle this morning.   It also showed it being drier out here.   It did quite well... just did not notice it.  

 

A lot more than what the model was advertising though it seems. Still waiting for numbers for SEA but WFO picked up 0.06”.

Base on what was fallen this morning, I think the dry streak is over at SEA. 
 

 

[Cloud]

This is some cool stuff. The Puget Sound is very capable of creating its own weather. Just amazing. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Satellite tells the tale... NW flow off the coast which then curls inland through the Chehalis Gap and up into the Seattle area with nothing to block it.   You can also see the mountains on VI blocking the clouds from coming inland.  

The strait of JdeF is a pretty big gap and is aligned WNW.   But you don’t see the low clouds swirling up into the Strait of JdeF nearly as often as Puget Sound. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we extrapolate the forecast SLE will be sitting at a monthly mean of 72.2 through the 26th, which would essentially be tied with July 2018 for 3rd warmest July on record. Brrrrrrr....

[TT-SEA]

Blue sky now... 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

 

[Cloud]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Blue sky now... 

 

[TT-SEA]

48 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is some cool stuff. The Puget Sound is very capable of creating its own weather. Just amazing. 

 

The convergence zone being the most famous Puget Sound generated weather phenomenon.  

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Medford running ahead of July 2015 right now. Yet some on here would like us to believe this month has been cool regionally. 

Some here want to use a station at the far southern fringe of the region, basically California, as the barometer for the month!

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we extrapolate the forecast SLE will be sitting at a monthly mean of 72.2 through the 26th, which would essentially be tied with July 2018 for 3rd warmest July on record. Brrrrrrr....

OLM, SEA, PDX, BLI not top 10.

Monthly high of 84 at OLM and 82 at SEA so far. Hotttttt...

[TT-SEA]

On 7/19/2021 at 6:49 AM, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF did a great job showing the marine layer being mostly wiped out.    And it has adjusted to the trough being a little farther east and shows more marine layer the next 2 days... but it only "sticks" for the day in King County.      A situation in which the WA coast is sunnier than the Seattle area.

ECMWF did a great job with today and I assume tomorrow will be the same... basically sunny on the coast and cloudy in the Seattle area as advertised. 

[Phil]

59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

 

Ouchie.

Flying home today, just in time for the smog, followed by heat next week. Mis-timed the death ridge by 2 weeks.

 

[Phil]

Andrew’s smoke has reached NYC.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Ouchie.

Flying home today, just in time for the smog, followed by heat next week. Mis-timed the death ridge by 2 weeks.

 

You timing is always off... its your specialty.   

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Persistent cloudy day in North Bend, though we missed out on the drizzle further west. Only 65°F at home after a low of 53°F. 
 

 

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It's sunny right now... and 69 here.    It's been partly sunny since about 12:30.    Very few solid marine layer days this summer where it stays cloudy all day.

[BLI snowman]

Just a trace at SEA so their dry month remains intact.