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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

E7Vr3HYUYAEMOdd.thumb.png.3b41c3f16275b872f8d7e5fa742089da.png

Ensemble support on this, too. This monsoonal moisture advection is the exact scenario we were hoping for all summer.

Streak breaker. This would be the SEA dry streak at 49 or 50 days!

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3 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

List of 90+ degree highs since the late 90's. I didn't even realize last year had 34 which beats most of the list.

2021 - 37 (thru July 27)
2020 - 34
2019 - 11
2018 - 28
2017 - 38
2016 - 22
2015 - 25
2014 - 27
2013 - 21
2012 - 15
2011 - 4
2010 - 13
2009 - 21
2008 - 11
2007 - 10
2006 - 15
2005 - 13
2004 - 10
2003 - 21
2002 - 13
2001 - 14
2000 - 8
1999 - 12
1998 - 31

A site I like to use isn't pulling data from 1997 and earlier for KLMT. 

That's too bad. Wonder what it was in 1985 as July that year was pretty hot in the region.

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Tack on another one! Up to 91F!!

D19D7BC8-D31A-4EDC-B51E-564F58FD6D1D.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Back from my road trip. Modified the itinerary and never made it to Okanogan County due to conditions being too smoky. Every time I checked purpleair.com readings were somewhere between unhealthy and hazardous there, blecch.

Stayed in Kittitas County for the most part. Very dry conditions, but no smoke until getting a little bit this morning.

Definitely could notice tree damage from June’s extreme heat in the North Bend area. Was not grab-your-attention dramatic, but it was there, particularly in cedar trees.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Looks like SLE is up to 90 as well. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Let’s pray the monsoon moisture can get up here, on the west side of the crest too. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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There's already a next round of showers coming into the forecast area creeping up on radar. Those look a little stronger, maybe t'storms tonight.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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We will have to wait for the official numbers, but if SLE did indeed pump off another 90 today then we are going to run the table the rest of the month and match the 17 90+ highs we saw in 2018. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well this is something.

1AF5E613-7D1D-46CC-8E0D-BF5868CD359A.jpeg

Here’s hoping it materializes. Everything east of the Cascades is super bone-dry. Even the west side is dry. Even on the Franklin Falls trail, the forest floor is for the most part dry. I used to remember that area always being moist; even in the driest summers those mountains tend to wring significant moisture out of even the paltriest episodes of summer showers.

Aside: and boy has that area ever changed in the last 20 years or so! The masses have really discovered it! I remember when six cars parked at the (old, now unmarked) trail head was a busy day. Most people didn’t even know there was a stretch of the old highway between the two sets of opposing lanes of I-90.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Those precip anomalies on the east sides aren't impossible. I doubt any of that comes from frontal rain though. 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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The high was at midnight here lol. The "afternoon" high was maybe 63.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Nope.

More of the same until Columbus Day 2022.

Weren’t you just talking about a high end heat event in the wake of the last run? That would be more of the same.

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20 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Weren’t you just talking about a high end heat event in the wake of the last run? That would be more of the same.

I think another round of amplification is good possibility with some manner of cyclogenic (by mid summer standards) activity. As I said, it would be preferable if lightning didn’t strike twice in reference to late June.

it IS possible to have a more volatile pattern and still have to watch Woody Harrelson vomit.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Nice to see the desert SW in the blue now.

Was about to say, don’t see that too often these days. Maybe we can cut down the 4CH at its ankles.

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14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think another round of amplification is good possibility with some manner of cyclogenic (by mid summer standards) activity. As I said, it would be preferable if lightning didn’t strike twice in reference to late June.

it IS possible to have a more volatile pattern and still have to watch Woody Harrelson vomit.  

So if we see literally anything other than a stagnant, sprawling 4CH centered to our east and weak onshore flow west of the Cascades in the next few weeks you will call it a forecasting win. That’s like Phil level hedging. ;)

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15 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So if we see literally anything other than a stagnant, sprawling 4CH centered to our east and weak onshore flow west of the Cascades in the next few weeks you will call it a forecasting win. That’s like Phil level hedging. ;)

Hey, at least it’s something beyond just commiserationcasting.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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34 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

D**n, Salem!

Nicely done!

Not just a 90, 91!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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A bit warm today. Saw 86° in Woodinville. Clouds were a bit of a surprise this morning. Went into a Safeway and almost all the Gatorade was sold out!

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hey, at least it’s something beyond just commiserationcasting.

Talking about how ridiculously warm and dry it’s been in a bad light is quite offensive. Not like people are actually affected by things like severe drought and wildfire. Now if they closed the Keizer In-N-out!!

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Talking about how ridiculously warm and dry it’s been in a bad light is quite offensive. Not like people are actually affected by things like severe drought and wildfire. Now if they closed the Keizer In-N-out!!

I was going back home from a day trip to Corvallis a couple months ago and tried to go to the Keizer In-n-out just to see if it was worth the hype. Place was so packed the line of cars was spilling over onto the road. Got back on the highway and kept going.

They are considering Beaverton for their next location...

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I was going back home from a day trip to Corvallis a couple months ago and tried to go to the Keizer In-n-out just to see if it was worth the hype. Place was so packed the line of cars was spilling over onto the road. Got back on the highway and kept going.

They are considering Beaverton for their next location...

They’re eyeing one of two sites here in Vancouver as well. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I'm not big on fast food. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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NWS going with 100 Friday at SLE. Seems low. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Well this is something.

1AF5E613-7D1D-46CC-8E0D-BF5868CD359A.jpeg

how does that map square with this? I guess 500% anomaly of their average 0.01 in precip over 5 days isnt very much? I know any precip at this point is good for E cascades and hopefully this can give fire work a breather before going into the final stretch. 

1628380800-YHwjqofFdGo.png

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

how does that map square with this? I guess 500% anomaly of their average 0.01 in precip over 5 days isnt very much? I know any precip at this point is good for E cascades and hopefully this can give fire work a breather before going into the final stretch. 

1628380800-YHwjqofFdGo.png

Different climo periods. Hopefully it’s a persistent shift and we can put the kibosh on fire season.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nice sunset,

And so early!

We are going to turn that around in less than 5 months... its almost here!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nice sunset,

And so early!

I found the will to go out on the porch and watch it as well as snap a photo of the pretty pink clouds despite clearly hating my life.

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24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nice sunset,

And so early!

I’ve definitely noticed it getting dark earlier in the evening. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Almost leaf blowing season! Summer is winding down. 

There have almost been enough withered dead leaves around here left over from the gates of hell opening for a couple days in late June to warrant a second leafblower season entirely.

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Almost leaf blowing season! Summer is winding down. 

In the last 15 years here at my location, august has ended up warmer than July 10 out of 15 times. I wouldn’t put the boat away just yet! 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There have almost been enough withered dead leaves around here left over from the gates of hell opening for a couple days in late June to warrant a second leafblower season entirely.

Leaf blowers are themselves a product of the Devil.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Leaf blowers are themselves a product of the Devil.

Careful. There are some here who are incredibly defensive about the topic. Like you will make them cry.

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What a godsend that pattern would be. A good analog could be the trough tease in early August 2018 that ultimately ended up digging well offshore and giving us another heatwave.

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