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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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14 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It sure is. Our only temps not well above average would be the middle of next week. Back to 100 by next weekend. 

If it verifies, North Dakota and Minnesota are going to be setting some records in about 12 days. 

Through 96 hours think Euro is going towards a better route to a potential cooldown.

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Sun is finally out. And a cool-ish breeze still coming in the house.

Sure today isn't Sep 28th and I didn't just have a 2 month long coma?? 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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55 minutes ago, iFred said:

test

If anyone has any issue with performance of the forum, let me know

Way too much bickering and complaining.

Oh, wait, you're talking about technology.....no, everything is fine.

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Started putting some iron based fertilizer on the lawn. Looks like I’ve got one more solid period of warmth and humidity before things start looking sketchy in the long range.

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Every day on the OP euro run is above 80…but there is some light rain towards the end. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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No more dry Oct/Nov couplets next few years. Pineapples and windstorms this Fall!

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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59 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It sure is. Our only temps not well above average would be the middle of next week. Back to 100 by next weekend. 

If it verifies, North Dakota and Minnesota are going to be setting some records in about 12 days. 

Clown range is just that, but the 12z GFS is on its own with the evolution days 8-10. Euro, GEFS, and previous GFS runs all show much more of a cooldown.

A forum for the end of the world.

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24 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Clown range is just that, but the 12z GFS is on its own with the evolution days 8-10. Euro, GEFS, and previous GFS runs all show much more of a cooldown.

If I had to guess we will go to a more normal pattern after the warm up and then transition into another warm period later in august. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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42 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

If I had to guess we will go to a more normal pattern after the warm up and then transition into another warm period later in august. 

Dewey has patented this type of forecast.

A forum for the end of the world.

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And another one!!! Up to 90F!!!

30CA673D-313A-438F-98CA-E5D81C113E71.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Dewey has patented this type of forecast.

Seems like a likely projection in all seriousness…warm up…then flip back into the pattern we’ve been in than warm up again. Warm ups and cool downs. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

image.thumb.png.25eb5c6145ab08a654bbb176ed9d2713.png

image.png

I put very little stock in these outlooks. We can all look at that models and see how much precipitation is being forecasted.

Besides, when our average is close to zero, a 30-40% chance of greater than average is not very meaningful. 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

85 here despite the mid-level clouds floating around today.

82* here. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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SLE already up to 93. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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NWS going with 101 at SLE the next TWO DAYS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

NWS going with 101 at SLE the next TWO DAYS. 

Remember when triple digits were a 1-in-5 year thing for the Willamette Valley and a 1-in-30 year thing for the Puget Sound?

I *vaguely* do

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87 here and 88 in North Bend... but does not feel that hot out there.   I think I have become conditioned to warm weather.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I was going to go to the Mowich area of MRNP, but I was looking at my notes and realized I had not hiked on the east side in 10 years!  Wow time flies. So I spent some time at Sunrise and did a hike up to the Fremont Lookout and Burroughs Mountain.  It was beautiful, and not a lot of people.  In fact there was nobody else at the lookout.

222704330_10224792359229941_1779822667888047540_n.jpg

219746134_10224792359589950_4544542615702334137_n.jpg

218311773_10224792368950184_331074458011909705_n.jpg

222628477_10224792362390020_2229639635127758694_n.jpg

221920050_10224792353069787_1427185731075761112_n.jpg

Nice pics... and pretty much smoke-free.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW... the 12Z Canadian smoke model showed some smoke aloft and at ground level sneaking into western WA by Saturday morning with southerly flow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

87 here and 88 in North Bend... but does not feel that hot out there.   I think I have become conditioned to warm weather.  

85 here. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Remember when triple digits were a 1-in-5 year thing for the Willamette Valley and a 1-in-30 year thing for the Puget Sound?

I *vaguely* do

1 in 30 is probably about right for most of the Puget Sound (depends of course on how close to the water the exact location is) but for the Willamette Valley 100+ has occurred in probably 50-60% of years since the mid 1920s. In PDX's 81 year period of record only 35 of those years went without a triple digit day, so 57% of years have hit 100. It's a different story before that though, from 1874 (the first year of records for downtown Portland) through 1903 there was a grand total of one 100+ day in that 30 year period.

The warming in the last 90ish years has been mostly from a decline in the number of cool, troughy days, declining influence of the marine layer, and an increase in the number of days in the mid 80s to low-mid 90s. Though who knows, perhaps this year is an ominous warning sign of an increase in the number of days with extreme heat.

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20 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I was going to go to the Mowich area of MRNP, but I was looking at my notes and realized I had not hiked on the east side in 10 years!  Wow time flies. So I spent some time at Sunrise and did a hike up to the Fremont Lookout and Burroughs Mountain.  It was beautiful, and not a lot of people.  In fact there was nobody else at the lookout.

222704330_10224792359229941_1779822667888047540_n.jpg

219746134_10224792359589950_4544542615702334137_n.jpg

218311773_10224792368950184_331074458011909705_n.jpg

222628477_10224792362390020_2229639635127758694_n.jpg

221920050_10224792353069787_1427185731075761112_n.jpg

Did Mr. Marmot come visit you on the 1st Burroughs? Awesome picks in a magical place ! 

8BA3ADF1-7FC6-42B9-B778-ED9F7E0A4EB2.jpeg

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

NWS going with 101 at SLE the next TWO DAYS. 

Thursday will be the hottest. Friday will be subject to a slower warm up with debris clouds around (despite a warmer start). Flow is too southerly to clear out early enough to maximize a warm atmosphere.

I believe the acronym is "HCS."

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29 minutes ago, James Jones said:

1 in 30 is probably about right for most of the Puget Sound (depends of course on how close to the water the exact location is) but for the Willamette Valley 100+ has occurred in probably 50-60% of years since the mid 1920s. In PDX's 81 year period of record only 35 of those years went without a triple digit day, so 57% of years have hit 100. It's a different story before that though, from 1874 (the first year of records for downtown Portland) through 1903 there was a grand total of one 100+ day in that 30 year period.

The warming in the last 90ish years has been mostly from a decline in the number of cool, troughy days, declining influence of the marine layer, and an increase in the number of days in the mid 80s to low-mid 90s. Though who knows, perhaps this year is an ominous warning sign of an increase in the number of days with extreme heat.

That's actually pretty interesting... thanks for the insight

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Only one marmot...and a mountain goat, and a sundog AND my watermark all in one photo?!

222628491_297657481996453_7893903297359625050_n.jpg

Now that's showing off! Nice one. :P

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Front yard marmot in 2017. I'm sure he's been around off and on but missed opportunities ;)

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

86 here. Seems to have plateaued. 

Think we may have maxed out with the north breeze coming in off the water. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Today was our 6th +85 day of the year…only had 4 total in 2020 and 2 in 2019. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Today was our 6th +85 day of the year…only had 4 total in 2020 and 2 in 2019. 

I lost count how many of those I've had. 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I lost count how many of those I've had. 

Lol, we average 8 +85 days per year and we will have reached that number by the end of July. Still all of August to get through too. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol, we average 8 +85 days per year and we will have reached that number by the end of July. Still all of August to get through too. 

I remember there was speculation from someone one month ago right now about summer ending on July 5th this year.  🤔

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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