May Observations and Discussion

[gabel23]

Yikes!!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=114&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_114_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150505+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[Jaycee]

Yikes!!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=114&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_114_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150505+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Would not surprise me seeing those totals somewhere. But for the love of god, can we get some sunshine around here?! We have a fire ready, but no matches to light it. This whole system could be a bust severe weather wise because of this.

[Tom]

The Blackhills look like they will get dumped on with Snow!  Some parts of NE may get in on the action.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050612/gfs_asnow_us_24.png

[gabel23]

Some pretty strong wording coming from the SPC boys about today. If we get some clearing things might get really interesting today and into tonight. Upgraded to "Enhanced" for this afternoon. 

 

NEB/KS...

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KS...AND
WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS REGION WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
J/KG. 12Z GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO TRACK INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Tom]

12z Euro really cranking out the snowfall totals and precip in the Rockies/Plains respectively...

[Niko]

Some breaks in the overcast today. Yesterday was chilly and damp with temps barely at 50F. Much better today with temps near 66F or so and much much warmer tomorrow and Friday with temps approaching well into the 80's. Break out the swimsuits!!!

[james1976]

12z Euro really cranking out the snowfall totals and precip in the Rockies/Plains respectively...

Is this for this weekend system? DMX hitting the "severe" word pretty hard.

[Niko]

Any word on next winters outlook??!! Just Kiddin!!

[Niko]

That disturbance down off the southeast coastline might affect people on the coast, but, so far they are saying that it would not develop into anything tropical. Lets wait and see on that. You never know with these systems.

[Maxim]

Lake Michigan is a curse.

[Tom]

Crazy difference in temperature in NE IL....

 

[Maxim]

Lake breeze boundary can be seen easily on the radar.

[BrianJK]

Looking ahead - Any initial thoughts on what Memorial Day weekend might look like around these parts?  How about N. Wisconsin?

[Maxim]

Looking ahead - Any initial thoughts on what Memorial Day weekend might look like around these parts?  How about N. Wisconsin?

 that's like three weeks out, you won't be able to get an accurate forecast...

[Tom]

Looking ahead - Any initial thoughts on what Memorial Day weekend might look like around these parts?  How about N. Wisconsin?

I've been reading Gary Lezak's blog regarding the LRC and he is forecasting a wetter/cooler pattern near the Lakes around that time frame.  I looked up Hayward, WI forecast on his site during this weekend and it has low 60's (cold for the time of year). The colder than normal phase of the LRC should be cycling through at this time.  Let's see if the models start picking up on that.  CFSv2 has been going back and forth during this period.

[BrianJK]

 that's like three weeks out, you won't be able to get an accurate forecast...

 

Sorry -  I should have bolded: INITIAL THOUGHTS and MIGHT LOOK LIKE.

 

Anyways, with Memorial Day weekend rolling around 2 weeks from Friday, does anyone have any thoughts as to what we might be in store for?

[Snowlover76]

anyone know if anything was confirmed in Lincln? 

[jcwxguy]

anyone know if anything was confirmed in Lincln? 

just radar indicated, but wouldnt surprise me if there was a quick spin-up just nw of lincoln near malcolm

[Snowlover76]

just radar indicated, but wouldnt surprise me if there was a quick spin-up just nw of lincoln near malcolm

I heard from someone at work that there was something near the airport. 

[jcwxguy]

I heard from someone at work that there was something near the airport. 

just saw there was a funnel cloud report just west of the airport (where i was-working) at that time

[NEJeremy]

went chasing today and saw 7 tornadoes in northern Kansas including a huge wedge long track tornado near Courtland, NE. Was within 1/4 mile of it, closest I've ever been to a tornado!! First the inflow and then the RFD was insane! I'll post some pics and video when I get some time. Time to go to bed!

[Seahawkfan]

Looks like Sunday may be a day for severe weather for many of us on the forum. Be interesting to how it all plays out.

[Maxim]

Sorry - I should have bolded: INITIAL THOUGHTS and MIGHT LOOK LIKE.

 

Anyways, with Memorial Day weekend rolling around 2 weeks from Friday, does anyone have any thoughts as to what we might be in store for?

Can't even give "initial thoughts", or what it "might look like". Anything can change between now and then, so it would be pretty pointless to listen to any "initial thoughts". Why can't you just wait a week and ask again? Maybe then someone can get a better handle on what things might be looking like.

[Jaycee]

Can't even give "initial thoughts", or what it "might look like". Anything can change between now and then, so it would be pretty pointless to listen to any "initial thoughts". Why can't you just wait a week and ask again? Maybe then someone can get a better handle on what things might be looking like.

Or you can just not get butthurt. No one put you in charge. Let the man speak his mind.

[gabel23]

Received 1.3" from yesterday morning up until this morning. Of course it's not quiet as much as southeast Nebraska were some places received 7-9" of rain! Republic County in Kansas was in a tornado warning 13 different times yesterday, that's insane! This was certainly a surprise outbreak for a small area in Nebraska and Kansas. 

[gabel23]

Just crazy amounts of rain! 

 

JEFF003   : FAIRBURY 11.4 NW         *   : 10.47 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM

JEFF021   : DAYKIN 5.3 E             *   : 9.60 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
SALI003   : WESTERN 1.2 SE           *   : 9.50 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
SALI030   : WESTERN 4.4 NNE          *   : 9.15 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
SALI011   : TOBIAS 4.7 SSW           *   : 9.05 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
JEFF014   : DAYKIN 1.2 SW            *   : 8.97 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
NELA24    : HALLAM 0.2 NW            *   : 8.10 /  MM /   MM /   MM
SALI005   : TOBIAS 1.8 E             *   : 8.02 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
LANC067   : LINCOLN 3.9 W            *   : 7.71 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
NELA23    : LINCOLN 1.7 SW           *   : 7.43 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
LANC001   : LINCOLN 2.7 SSW          *   : 6.87 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
LANC006   : LINCOLN 1.4 ENE          *   : 6.82 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
LANC012   : LINCOLN 5.8 WSW          *   : 6.80 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
NELA05    : LINCOLN 5.7 S            *   : 6.31 /  MM /   MM /   MM
LANC049   : LINCOLN 4.3 SSE          *   : 6.28 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
NELA15    : LINCOLN 5.2 SE           *   : 6.10 /  MM /   MM /   MM
SALI002   : MILFORD 5.9 SSE          *   : 6.10 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
CASS010   : EAGLE 1.2 SW             *   : 6.08 / 0.0 /   MM /   MM
NESL02    : CRETE 4.0 N              *   : 6.05 /  M

[NEJeremy]

had 4.14" of rain here overnight!

[Maxim]

Or you can just not get butthurt. No one put you in charge. Let the man speak his mind.

I have no idea what you're talking about, was merely stating facts. You're not very smart apparently if you think I was getting butthurt.

[Snowlover76]

analog for Saturday

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/F072/SP_072/SVRgfs212F072.png

[Money]

Most of IA/IL/S. WI are under a risk already on Monday.

[james1976]

DMX going pretty heavy on the 'severe' wording for Sunday.

[BrianJK]

Can't even give "initial thoughts", or what it "might look like". Anything can change between now and then, so it would be pretty pointless to listen to any "initial thoughts". Why can't you just wait a week and ask again? Maybe then someone can get a better handle on what things might be looking like.

 

Do you think we should impose a rule that no one is allowed to look ahead and discuss possible weather scenarios beyond a certain timeframe?  Or do you just want to police the forum at your own discretion?  I'm fine with either, just let me know so I don't step out of line again.  Thanks!

[Jaycee]

had 4.14" of rain here overnight!

 

Nice dude! My rain gauge that goes to 6" was overfilled, given my location on the nw side I'd say we got about 7". insane. So many road closures today, my friend even got called off work because roads are still impossible to pass! Just this week alone, we've had 4 tornado warnings in Lancaster, and over 7" rain in most areas. Surprised we've been targeted so much recently!

 

 

EDIT: SnowLover76, you should repost that link, I wanna see it! Also, still getting some strong wording for Saturday/Sunday. Though we were taken out of the risk, I think it's due to timing being late at night/early in the morning. 

 

SPC:

 

D4/SUN

ACTIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE AND

EXTENSIVE TRAILING COLD FRONT...FROM NEB/IA SOUTH TO ERN OK AND INTO

TX...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS GIVEN

LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES SPREADING EAST INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE

AIRMASS. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND

WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER

VALLEY...FROM ERN NEB TO IA...DURING THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG

THE COLD FRONT...CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED STORMS...OR PERHAPS A BROKEN

SQUALL LINE...WILL ALSO POSE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND

HAIL.

[Geos]

Sounds like some of you are out or near out of the drought now.

Never seen a 24 hour period with 7" of rain before - wow!

 

A balmy day, but not 80° with a SE wind. In the 60s in Racine currently.

[james1976]

Sounds like some of you are out or near out of the drought now.

Never seen a 24 hour period with 7" of rain before - wow!

 

A balmy day, but not 80° with a SE wind. In the 60s in Racine currently.

Couple years ago in June i got 8.5" in ONE morning! Flooding everywhere...including my basement.

[Geos]

Couple years ago in June i got 8.5" in ONE morning! Flooding everywhere...including my basement.

 

September of 2008, I had 8" and change over 48 hours from a tropical storm remnants. That caused a lot of flooding that last for days.

[Jaycee]

Here's a picture I just took about an hour ago. This is less than a mile away from my house, legitimately looks like a lake, but there is actually no water here normally! Crazy.

 

[Tom]

Here's a picture I just took about an hour ago. This is less than a mile away from my house, legitimately looks like a lake, but there is actually no water here normally! Crazy.

 

D**n son.jpg

Proof in the pudding the pattern usually flips after a dry Winter like you guys have seen.  Just like last year, a wet/cool summer on the way.

[Snowlover76]

Here's a picture I just took about an hour ago. This is less than a mile away from my house, legitimately looks like a lake, but there is actually no water here normally! Crazy.

 

D**n son.jpg

where is that in Lincoln? 

[Jaycee]

where is that in Lincoln?

right next to the 27th st exit off of I-80