May Observations and Discussion

[Maxim]

lol

[Tom]

Its been chilly, cloudy and windy here the past couple days. I know its only May but I'm starting to wonder if we will see a cool/wet summer. A few years ago (2010 i think) it was very cool and wet and it continued into the Winter. Leaves were already changing in August.

I believe a Wet summer is almost a given, cooler...I'm not sold on it yet as there were very warm and cool phases of the LRC this year.  It may balance out in the end.  As far as where the pattern goes from here into next Fall/Winter, I think with a maturing El Nino this year we can see more moisture.  Where that sets up is the million dollar question.

[james1976]

Are we at a weak El Nino right now?

[CentralNebWeather]

Really liking the pattern we are in.  Have had some good moisture so far and more to come in the coming weeks.  We have stayed away from the severe weather, but it has been close.  Here is the upcoming week, which is important as it is graduation weekend coming up at our school so lots of parties but always watching the weather.

 

[Tom]

The past couple runs on the Euro its showing a trough near the Lakes leading up towards MDW.  GFS is showing a rainy and cool weekend.  I'm keeping an eye on that long weekend as many of us are planning to head out towards Castle Rock Lake.  If the weather doesn't cooperate, might have to make different plans.  Hoping its nice, but not liking what I'm seeing so far.

[Hawkeye]

The stormy weekend for my area has disappeared on the Canadian and Euro, and next Mon/Tue look very cool.  If it pans out like that it would be a repeat of this past weekend and early week.

[Maxim]

This doesn't look promising for a wet/cool pattern near the lakes in the long range.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[Maxim]

The past couple runs on the Euro its showing a trough near the Lakes leading up towards MDW.  GFS is showing a rainy and cool weekend.  I'm keeping an eye on that long weekend as many of us are planning to head out towards Castle Rock Lake.  If the weather doesn't cooperate, might have to make different plans.  Hoping its nice, but not liking what I'm seeing so far.

GFS looks quite warm this upcoming weekend unless you were talking about the one after. 

[Tom]

GFS looks quite warm this upcoming weekend unless you were talking about the one after. 

MDW...Memorial Day Weekend....

[james1976]

The stormy weekend for my area has disappeared on the Canadian and Euro, and next Mon/Tue look very cool.  If it pans out like that it would be a repeat of this past weekend and early week.

Funny you say that cuz DMX AFD yesterday was saying that it could be a repeat. I haven't read today's yet.

[Geos]

That's a pretty significant dip in Arctic Ocean temps. Wouldn't be surprised if it stayed largely negative again this year. Sea ice has been gaining since late 2013.

 

Been a mostly cloudy and almost blustery day. I really hope the rain holds off this upcoming weekend!

[Geos]

Are we at a weak El Nino right now?

 

Slightly +0.6

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[Maxim]

what a look...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f72.gif

 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f96.gif

[Geos]

A look at Lake Michigan temperatures. 

Lake winds will continue to be chilly. --

 

 

45° and falling. Patchy frost wording for tonight.

[Money]

Looks like severe weather on Sunday

[Hawkeye]

Next week is not looking very warm at all... have to be sure to enjoy the warm weekend.

[GDR]

Upper 60's low 70's seems cold now days?

[Maxim]

Next week is not looking very warm at all... have to be sure to enjoy the warm weekend.

Dude, it's May. I'm sure it won't be that bad.

[Maxim]

Wow, one day in the upper 50s next week... Brutal!

[Maxim]

Anyway, Friday looks like a good chasing day for Nebraska.

[Geos]

Wow, even with bright sun all day it failed to reach 50°.

 

Looks like 48° for a high.

[Niko]

Frost Advisory issued for SEMI. Lows are expected to drop down between 30 to 35F. WOW! My record low is 29F. Probably will not tie or break it, but will definitely come close.

[BrianJK]

Air was crisp today.  Figured going for a run outside would be enjoyable with the sun out - not the case.

[Maxim]

Felt fine on the golf course today, just need to dress properly.

[CentralNebWeather]

55 degrees with a steady rain falling in central Nebraska. Forecast has been spot on. Looks like severe weather in the central plains this weekend according to nws Hastings. Large hail and a slight risk of tornadoes.

[chances14]

Frost Advisory issued for SEMI. Lows are expected to drop down between 30 to 35F. WOW! My record low is 29F. Probably will not tie or break it, but will definitely come close.

really shouldn't be a shock. the average last freeze for a lot of lower michigan is mid may.

[Geos]

40° already here. Could see some patchy frost if winds stay calm to near calm all night.

[gabel23]

Well I picked up an inch of rain last night, and it was a nice soaking rain. My rain total so far this month is around 3.5" and we are only in Mid May. A good start to the spring for sure; the chance for severe storms increase this weekend with a pretty good chance Friday night and again Saturday night. Just in time for graduations! 

[BrianJK]

Felt fine on the golf course today, just need to dress properly.

 

I've said the same thing about snowmobiling when the high was -5F.

[Maxim]

I've said the same thing about snowmobiling when the high was -5F.

My point is there are too many people complaining about the recent cool down. I mean, come on, it's still May. You're going to get shitty days where highs are only in the 50s, and next week doesn't look that bad.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like a keep an eye to the sky and weather radio weekend.  Have many graduation parties to attend.  Local TV mets already talking about the amount of activities and how weather may get dangerous in places.  NWS Hastings has updated their severe weather map which is below.

 

[gabel23]

Looks like a keep an eye to the sky and weather radio weekend.  Have many graduation parties to attend.  Local TV mets already talking about the amount of activities and how weather may get dangerous in places.  NWS Hastings has updated their severe weather map which is below.

 

FileL (1).png

Friday's threat has shifted about 50 miles to the west and north. I'm no longer included in the Enhanced threat, will see how that changes between now and then......

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Money]

Still looking like potential severe weather for IA/MN/IL/WI on Sunday as the cold front comes through. Cape/Shear look more than favorable but this is dependent on morning conviction clearing out pretty quickly and allowing time to re-destabilize

[CentralNebWeather]

gabel23, you are correct, it has shifted west and north.  

[Yerf]

Interesting information on the developing El Nino  http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/an-el-ninos-developed-but-how-strong-will-it-grow

 

[Tom]

Interesting information on the developing El Nino  http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/an-el-ninos-developed-but-how-strong-will-it-grow

 

pic51.jpg

One thing that map doesn't illustrate, is the blocking HP that should develop next year in NW NAMER.  JAMSTEC, CFSv2 all showing warm waters hugging NW NAMER and the map above has a Aleutian Low right where the warm waters will be centered.  The jet stream pattern should be more amplified in NW NAMER than above.  Nonetheless, the southern branch will be more active next season as a mature El Nino takes hold.  Thanks for sharing!

[Money]

MKE afd mentions all severe weather modes on Sunday including tornadoes

[WBadgersW]

MKE afd mentions all severe weather modes on Sunday including tornadoes

How does it look Sunday Morning for Green Bay? I'm heading up there for the marathon.

[Geos]

Coolish day today and now damp out. Topped at 57°.

 

Green up still ongoing. Local forest is springing to life.

 

 

Somewhat interesting clouds right before the rain started.

 

[Money]

LSE AFD:

 

THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE SUNDAY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE

STORMS. POTENTIAL IS A GOOD WORD AS IT COULD BE A FAVORABLE DAY

FOR TORNADOES...BUT ALSO COULD RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND TURN

INTO NO STORY. THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH THE 15.00Z AND 14.18Z NAM RUNS SUGGESTING

A GOOD SETUP FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND THE OVERALL SYNOPTICS AND

TIMING. HOWEVER...IT IS AN OUTLIER AS THE 15.00Z ECMWF/GFS AND

15.03Z/21Z SREFS ALL SUGGEST A DIFFERENT OUTCOME. THAT OUTCOME

WOULD INCLUDE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE COMING INTO

THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY FROM THE WEST /SUNRISE/ AND SHIFTING EAST

ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND

INCREASING DEEPER STRONGER SHEAR FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE

STORMS THEN. POSSIBLY A SMALL WINDOW IN WI FOR SEVERE STORMS TO

REDEVELOP LATER...BUT THIS SEEMS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST QUICKLY. THE

SLOWER 15.00Z AND 14.18Z NAM RUNS SUGGEST A SLOWER TIMING AND LESS

MORNING CONVECTION INTO WI...FAVORING A BETTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON

SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK.

 

IMPORTANTLY...SUNDAY HAS EXCELLENT DEEP SHEAR THROUGH 10KM...AND

TIMING AND INSTABILITY ARE THE MAIN PROBLEMS THAT NEED RESOLUTION. SPC

DAY 3 DISCUSSION MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER THE AREA...WHICH

SEEMS ON TRACK FOR THE DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN ON SUNDAYS OUTCOME.

IT IS ONLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THESE SWRN U.S. SYSTEMS ARE VERY

DEPENDENT ON THE ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC BEING RESOLVED CORRECTLY

BY THE MODEL INITIALIZATION. THE NAM SKILL IN THE OUTER HOURS IS

NOT AS FAVORABLE AS WITHIN A DAY. WILL TRY TO STRESS THAT

DIFFERENCES EXIST ON HOW SUNDAY COULD PLAY OUT...BUT THAT A RISK

OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.

 

 

MKE AFD:

 

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS PERIOD WITH CENTER OF

UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM SD INTO WRN MN. AFTERNOON AND EVENING

DCVA FROM APPCH SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN STORM INITIATION. LOCATION

OF BEST DCVA AND ORIENTATION OF 850 JET AXIS TEND TO FAVOR WRN

AND NW WI HOWEVER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE SW INTO

THE EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO FROPA. 0-6 SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 40

KNOTS WITH 0-1KM SHEAR 20 KNOTS. SEEING CWASP NUMBERS INTO THE

70S. CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING FOR SVR POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON

AND EVENING HOURS AND SPC HAS ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK.