Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Autumn 2021 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

55 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Local mets say MJO is going into phase 4, so no big cold outbreaks yet for here.   

Which I'm fine with. Seasonable temps like I'm set to see are exactly what the doctor ordered. 

  • Like 2

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is looking more likely that the CFS model painted a good LR indication that Winter shall be coming out of the gates quite fast this year across not only Canada/Alaska but also across Russia/Siberia.

gfs_asnow_asia_65.png

 

"Oh Canada"....#thinksnow....The "Cascades of Canada" sure lookin' good...won't be long till our nations "Rockies" get their share of legit snows later this month.

5.png

 

The JMA weeklies came in today and are starting to come in range of the initial period where the sun sets across the North Pole and a glimpse of what the new LRC may begin to look like way up north before it begins to settle down farther south across the mid latitudes.  The Week 3-4 forecast is showing a NE PAC ridge, Eastern Canada Ridge and a stout W Canada trough.  I foresee this pattern delivering early snows for the inter-mountain west and sparking an active pattern for the later half of the month.

3.png

 

Temp/Precip pattern... 

Y202109.D0812_gl2.png

 

Look at the AN precip pattern across all of Canada and into the northern half of our Sub.  All signs point towards Canada filling up with Snow and I would not be surprised if a few of our northern members see their 1st flakes by months end.

 

Y202109.D0812_gl0.png

 

The SST anomaly map really firing up the NE PAC while the equatorial PAC is showing the La Nina growing...

 

Y202109.D0812_gls.png

 

The GEFS LR snowfall map is quite impressive into mid Oct...#buildtheglacier

1.png

  • Like 2
  • Excited 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro weeklies from last night are flashing one of the bigger signals for possible snows across the central/north Sub come mid/late Oct.  I'm intrigued by how far south the model is suggesting possible snows down into NM.  I don't recall seeing maps like these in recent years where it shows snows falling in the SW in October at this range.  Are you mirroring what I've been thinking??  I'm digging the snowy Rockies...I got a good feeling this season will produce a robust ski season for the resorts, even into Cali where they are hurting for moisture.  I hope Lake Tahoe gets in on the moisture come later this month of Sept to put out those fires.

 

1.png

 

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As promised, I'll post the latest maps off the JMA seasonal that came in the other day.  What I find interesting, is the model agreement between the CFSv2 and JMA for the month of October.  The trough near AK/NW C.A. signalling winter will hit it off quickly up that way while farther south down into the U.S. a warmer pattern may be in the cards next month.

 

1.png

 

Temp...overall a slightly AN temp pattern from the SW into the W GL's region while a hint of normal temps near the PAC NW and SE CONUS.

 

Y202109.D0800_gl2.png

Precip...it appears like a normal precip pattern across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation but a wetter potential pattern across the west coast and So Cal??  That would be very interesting if this ends up being right and nature delivering moisture into So Cal.

Y202109.D0800_gl0.png

 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_1.png

 

As we approach November, I think the model is signalling major blocking patterns in and around North America.  This, IMO, is a huge factor going forward for many reasons as it will solidify the LRC pattern that will undoubtedly favor a Greenland Block and -AO.  Notice the trough that is targeting the PAC NW/W Coast and the big block in eastern Canada.  This is fantastic signal for a significant storm train to inundate the west/SW which eventually make it into our Sub Forum.  It's no surprise that the precip pattern is showing a very large area of AN precip from the west into the eastern CONUS.

2.png

 

Temp/Precip...

Y202109.D0800_gl2.png

 

Precip....the W PAC signal is one to watch in the month of November as it could deliver some powerful late season Typhoons.  I remember one year when Typhoon Nuri tracked up near East Asia into the Aleutian Islands that was a big part to the pattern in mid November back in 2014.  We could very well see something similar.  Notice the trough near Japan and using the East Asian rule, this is indicative of stormier pattern for the eastern CONUS.

Typhoon Nuri's track...

275px-Nuri_2014_track.png

 

Y202109.D0800_gl0.png

 

Finally, the time of year when we all want to see cold air and snow falling during the holiday season that has been lacking in recent years.  Well, if the JMA is right, I think there will be smiles on peoples faces.  I mean, you can't script this any better after looking at the 500mb pattern.  #eyecandy

3.png

 

Temp/Precip...let's hope this holds....no warmth whatsoever across the CONUS (the model does not really "see" cold at this distance).

 

Y202109.D0800_gl2.png

 

Precip...nearly the entire Sub Forum has AN precip.  Like I've said before, I got a great feeling that due to what has transpired here in the SW during this years Monsoon season, I strongly believe Nature will be delivering many storms out this way in the Fall/Winter.  These maps are mirroring what I think will transpire.  Overall, there will be some warmer periods in Oct/Nov but the general them is for a very active storm track and then possibly a big flip into Winter sometime in Nov or early Dec.  I'm really getting excited and antsy to start seeing storms track into the west, esp if the high lat blocking takes over and also the big ticket item...what happens in the Strat?  Early disruption like the models have been suggesting over the past couple months?  Lot's to decipher over the coming weeks.

Y202109.D0800_gl0.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For a few months in a row, the top climate models continue to show agreement for the start of met Winter.  I'm getting a bit excited to see the JMA, Euro and UKMET all showing an eastern CONUS trough.  This could be the fast start to winter we have all been waiting for in a long time.  Maps Courtesy @BenNoll

 

1.jpg

 

2.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's another map off the UKMET-Euro blend for Sep-Nov showing a hint of a corridor of cooler anomalies setting up across the central CONUS.  I'm paying close attn way up near Alaska/W Canada where you can sorta see where I expect our early season cold to brew and make its way south into the lower 48.  This is a classic La Nina set up esp when you take into consideration the high lat blocking.

 

 

Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see there is a new look to the CPC’s long range guess maps. The maps have a little different look to them but the long range guess if mostly the same. Here is their guess for October
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
and their new look updated long range guess for the rest of the fall season.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
and for the upcoming meteorological winter
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

I see there is a new look to the CPC’s long range guess maps. The maps have a little different look to them but the long range guess if mostly the same. Here is their guess for October
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
and their new look updated long range guess for the rest of the fall season.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
and for the upcoming meteorological winter
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

Lol. Same guesses as every past winter season ever.

  • Like 2

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Tom said:

WxBell going all in on a cold December and Joe D's statistical agrees...hellova start to Winter???

1.png

And the Northeast will get LOTS and LOTS of snow! Like, 12.3910 METERS!

  • lol 1

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've read several tweets from @BenNoll's comments regarding the potential for both a significant and early SSW event to occur over the N.H.  This is interesting, for several reasons, but none  moreso than the LR signal from an ensemble mean of climate models suggesting this could be the 2nd (if not earliest) SSW event in recorded history.  Low Solar playing a role???  The high lat blocking which is to immerse the Arctic region later in early October is likely a very big clue.  Not to mention, but look what is transpiring right now over the N Pole/Alaska as the 10mb/30mb upper atmospheric warming already brewing.

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Interesting commentary from him...

Quote
 
 
December 2021: this forecast of stratospheric temperature anomalies is pretty unusual Red circle How unusual? The zonal mean anomaly between 60-90˚N is the *2nd warmest* predicted by (from September) compared to all years from 1993-2020.

 

 

1.jpg

 

How could you NOT be excited about this winter season???  The LR clues and signals are growing stronger as we get closer in time.  Speaking of which, the CFSv2 continues to trend with abundant high lat blocking when just a few weeks ago the signal was very weak.  I made a comment the other day where the model is playing catch up it seems as it is likely "seeing" the potentially historic SSW event.  

 

2.gif2.gif

As I digest more data that continues to perk my interest for how this Autumn/Winter season ends up becoming, all you have to do is see what nature has already shown us.  In my opinion, one aspect of what has transpired here in Arizona and the SW this Monsoon season is quite fascinating.  We have seen an overwhelming amount of precip and I don't see this suddenly ending.  In fact, I do strongly believe it will continue into October.  Patterns like these don't just suddenly stop as I feel its more of a longer term trend.  The fact that we are going to see such an enormous amount of blocking this coming cold season it is very conceivable that this will drive the jet stream farther south and become a factor in the SW U.S.  Speaking of which, the CFSv2 is trending in a much wetter signal for the west coast and even down into So Cal!  I love it...

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202110.gif

 

So, here we are in the middle of Sept with so much to look forward to as a winter wx enthusiast...are the models eye candy to look at?  Yes...am I getting my hopes up to early???  Ehh, possibly....but when you see such a profound agreement in the modeling and not the conflicting signals you typically see at this range from the models you gotta get a bit excited, right??

 

Finally, I'll end this post with this comment that came from Dr. Cohen.  If you recall, I've made several posts on the predicted pattern the CFS was indicating over near Siberia/Russia for this month into Oct.  Well, it appears that both of us are on the same page...

Quote
 
 
Not much #snow in #Siberia currently but predicted ridging/high pressure in the Barents-Kara Seas will favor downstream troughing/low pressure across Siberia for the remainder of September conducive to a possibly an early and rapid expansion of snow cover across Siberia.

5.jpg

 

  • Like 3
  • Excited 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jim Flowers posted this video yesterday. He is showing a pattern change by mid October with much cooler air, although he thinks the model is seeing it as "too quick". He also mentions '08-09' as his preferred analog year for this upcoming Winter.

https://www.facebook.com/148018328718825/posts/1821440708043237/

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is quite interesting as I found another potential clue to how the new LRC pattern could be setting up.  In a previous post, I posted a map from Ben Noll that showed in similar years that had a blockbuster SSW event in December, it lead to a stout LR signal for December of an active eastern/southern CONUS storm track.

 

1.jpg

 

Yet again, my intuition drew me to look at last night's 0z EPS Northern Hemispheric 500mb pattern.  I usually don't look at this particular map but this morning I was intrigued to do so.  Call me crazy, but do you see the similarities for the opening week of October???  My goodness, it's almost a carbon copy...East Asian Storm Track, Gulf of Alaska LP, Massive Hudson Bay Block, Southern Stream storm track that connects all the way across the "pond" into Europe.  Are you teasing me???  Man, this is the kinda stuff that gets me fired up and excited to see how Autumn sets up. 

3.gif

 

How about the 0z GEFS???  It's also showing a similar set up...

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_51.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Yeah I'm fully expecting a spike of 90s in early October especially if this no rain trend continues 

Not at all uncommon around here when things dry out and the dew tanks.  I'm seeing several days of mid 80's already starting Sunday through the middle of next week.  Kind of gotten used to these 60's and 70's for highs to be honest.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Breezy like the Plains out there this evening

image.png.42f0cb30e45925a292ca03cbcac935e0.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...