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Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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CPC loves to say it's going to be hotter than it is. Regardless of what you think about global warming, it's obvious they are not being good scientists and they tend to let their biases show.

But I am enjoying this current blow torch. I would much rather see it warm right now so I can still enjoy the lake without having to wear a 6mm wetsuit and then have the switch flip to an early and cold winter. My ideal fall is nice and warm until the beginning of November, and then we get the polar vortex to stop by and give us a nice 48 hour stretch of temps under 28 so they can make snow.

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@gimmesnowI agree with you. My ideal October through 2nd week of November weather is dry and above normal temps, then a gradual return to averages by Thanksgiving.  After Thanksgiving nature can drop the hammer of unending snow and cold (with emphasis on the snow) until April.

2018 and 2020 Octobers were cold and miserable here.  2019 was endless rain.  The next few weeks look like my kind of October weather. 

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Here is Accuweather's take on the Winter season...it sounds like they are onboard for an active and cold winter for the northern half of our Sub.  Let's not forget those in the deep south as Pastelok is predicting the worse of the winter for those down south around @Andie @OKwx2k4 regions.  I gotta good feeling @Beltrami Island @FAR_Weather are going to pay dividends this season.  That goes for pretty much all of us across the GL's/MW.  As always, we shall see what nature delivers.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-us-winter-forecast/1022887

 

Winter-2021-2022-Highlights.jpg?w=632

 

Snowfall...

Snow-forecast-winter-2021-2022.png?w=632

 

Temp...

December-2021-February-2022-Temperature-

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It does look like Okla/Tx will see Part 2 of last winters “taste”.  Last winter was just winding up for the pitch. The bitter cold of the late 80’s are revisiting.  We had deep cold, snow and ice. Bundle up!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Even if you get a favorable setup for winter for your region, there are going to be hot and screw zones.  Last winter the Des Moines to Cedar Rapids corridor was dumped on repeatedly while Mason City couldn't buy a flake.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Dr. Cohen

Quote

Also, now that the summer is over, I turn my attention much more closely to surface boundary conditions in the Arctic.  The sea ice annual minimum was reached two weeks ago at 4.72 million squared kilometers according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (see Figure ii).  The sea ice extent minimum is above the past two years and more in line with the years 2015-2018.  Sea ice is near normal on the North Pacific side of the Arctic and well below normal on the Eurasian to North Atlantic side of the Arctic.  I think this is an interesting anomaly pattern that is conducive to perturb the polar vortex (PV) with below normal sea ice weighted towards the North Atlantic side of the Arctic most favorable for perturbing the PV

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Going back to 1980, Kansas City has had 13 winters with snowfall above 23 inches (about 5 inches above normal).  October temps were below average in 8 of those winters.  In the five "snowy" winters with above average October temps, the temps generally were just barely above average, with October 2007 being an exception: 

October 1983 -- +0.7

October 1984 -- +0.4

October 1992 -- +0.1

October 2007 -- +3.2

October 2010 -- +2.2

Since 1980,  4 of the 5 winters with the least snow had above average temps in October.  But only one was significant. 

October 1994 -- +1.1

October 2011 -- +1.9

October 2015 -- +2.0

October 2016 -- +5.4

October 2017 -- -6.5

So since 1980, generally speaking, if you want to see a significantly snowy winter in KC, you're hoping for below average (or at least not above average) temps in October.  Typical caveat that nothing is a sure thing.   Also, in taking a look at some other Octobers, having cold Octobers definitely does not guaranty a snowy winter.  October 2002 being a good example of a cold October with low snowfall during the following winter. 

There are some signs this October will have above average temps and above average peecip. How has that translated in the past for KC?

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The weekend rain for Texas evaporated.  So much for that forecast.  
I did catch 3” Thursday night in 30 minutes. An amazing sight.  You could hardly breath the rain was so heavy.   
If this is a sample of winter’s personality down here it’s lock and load time boys and girls! 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Not only do the Euro Weeklies come out later this afternoon but I believe the new Euro seasonal will be issued as well.  I also read the ECMWF will have a big update in the model later this month.  With that being said, I'm looking for a trend in the weeklies to show a significant trough to develop post 25th of this month across the eastern Sub.  I just went through some LR data and the signal that appears to be growing is becoming more conclusive to me that the pattern overall across N.A. will go through a dramatic shift.  Let's see if I'm right about this.  

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WxBells updated Winter outlook

This is not that dissimilar to last year - and with good reason. It is based on a set of analogs that includes last year. We have also incorporated two new analogs, 2018-19 and 2013-14, due to Joe D'Aleo's research.

The analogs that provide the foundation are the winters of 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, and 2020-21. The commonality of these include:

  1. Colder than average Mays preceding the period across much of the nation.
  2. A high amplitude MJO in the preceding spring, which carried into the hurricane season. Cold phase MJO springs usually have big U.S. impact seasons behind them, and that pattern carries into an early winter correlation.
  3. Summer SSTs and hurricane season activity, which signals the tendency for Greenland blocking in winter (especially early).

 

November_2021_March_2022_Forecast.png

Snowfall_Forecast_Winter_2021_22.png

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9 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Interesting.  I suppose Gary L. would say that any analysis that relies on what happened during the preceding spring and summer is worthless because the global pattern resets in October.    How do people feel about using analogs to predict future weather.  I know it's a common tool.  Does it work? 

I would guess there are some parallels but not sure how accurate it can be.  I know the NWS uses analogs on individual storms sometimes.  I don't think any one method by itself works, I think you have to put several of them together.

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This month should be ideal for cleaning up your yard and putting everything away to start preparing for Winter. Temps are looking pretty darn sweet here in mby.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

Interesting.  I suppose Gary L. would say that any analysis that relies on what happened during the preceding spring and summer is worthless because the global pattern resets in October.    How do people feel about using analogs to predict future weather.  I know it's a common tool.  Does it work? 

Predicting the weather is predicting the future. There is no perfect way, only good and bad ways to give you hints on what's going to happen.

Instead of micro-anaylizing everything, using analogs is like saying "there's too much to understand when making our forecast, so we'll use similar situations in the past to make assumptions this similar year will be like other similar years." Logically it makes some sense, but the quality depends on how good the person making the predictions can find similar years and how they're determining similar years.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

WxBells updated Winter outlook

This is not that dissimilar to last year - and with good reason. It is based on a set of analogs that includes last year. We have also incorporated two new analogs, 2018-19 and 2013-14, due to Joe D'Aleo's research.

The analogs that provide the foundation are the winters of 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, and 2020-21. The commonality of these include:

  1. Colder than average Mays preceding the period across much of the nation.
  2. A high amplitude MJO in the preceding spring, which carried into the hurricane season. Cold phase MJO springs usually have big U.S. impact seasons behind them, and that pattern carries into an early winter correlation.
  3. Summer SSTs and hurricane season activity, which signals the tendency for Greenland blocking in winter (especially early).

 

November_2021_March_2022_Forecast.png

Snowfall_Forecast_Winter_2021_22.png

Not to be a downer, but it seems like 2013-14 has been an analog every year since 2013-14.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Got this off Twitter....

Very ominous looking sky there in Waterford, Twp. MI. This location is located to my NW. Not too far away.

 

 

Waterford, Twp..jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Per Gary L....

The first thing to remember this morning about this complex weather pattern is that we are still in the old pattern this morning. The new LRC is evolving and we have identified day one of every year's LRC to happen closer to October 6 or 7. So, just another couple of days and we will begin seeing the true new weather pattern. Right now, the models begin with the old pattern, and more errors than usual are happening within these models. 

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

WxBells updated Winter outlook

Keep in mind the above/below avg temp and snow numbers are pretty tame (+1, -1, 125%).

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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17 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Here's 30 years-worth of data.  I can't discern any particular patterns (except that the mid-2010s sucked for KC). 

I don't think KC has consistent or high enough average snowfall to do this kind of analysis.  You need to have a higher average and larger deviations to draw any conclusions from the data.  For a generic local in the UP for instance that averages 200" per year, years with 150" or 250" are significant deviations from the average but probably easily within statistically expected values.  Where as for KC with an average of 30"(?), a 12" snowstorm or lack there of represent nearly half the annual average.  A statistician can probably state what I am thinking more eloquently.

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Last nights Euro weeklies flashed what could be a cold start to Nov where it gets wintry for a lot of us.  It sorta is hinting at the trough I alluded to yesterday that I expect to see in late Oct, but the model doesn't really dial it up till the 1st week of NOV where a winter-like pattern sets up.  I'll post more maps tomorrow.  

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2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Agreed.  And we don't even average 30 inches.  More like 19.  But if we had seen particularly cold Octobers coinciding a lot with above normal snowfall, maybe some conclusions could be drawn.  But I didn't see that.  The only thing I did see is that our snowiest winters tend to follow below average to normal October temps (if you take the data back into the 1980s).  But of course there are exceptions even to that.  

I do like the idea of your attempted analysis correlating october temps to the following winter snowfall.  I have had a feeling there is a correlation for a while.   It won't work for KC, probably not Chicago either.  Maybe MSP, but I would like to see the results for an area like duluth/superior outside of lake effected/enhancement snow areas.  I don't have time to gather the data though. 

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I don't have time for this either but rushed some numbers into excel for Duluth. The only annoying part was flipping through every October since 1980. Not very famillar with DLH climo, but now jealous that their worst seasons are comparable to Lincoln's best 😆

Didn't feel like calculating the snowfall departures, 1991-2020 average is 90.2". Oct departures are based off 1991-20 as well - negative departures are mostly in the 80s and 90s. 

Year                            Snowfall        Oct departure

1980-81   36.5 -5.2
1981-82   95.7 -3.7
1982-83   96.5 1
1983-84   107.3 0.8
1984-85   68.2 1.6
1985-86   89.3 -1.4
1986-87   40.6 -0.7
1987-88   53.8 -4.7
1988-89   119.1 -5.6
1989-90   58.3 0.3
1990-91   63.8 -2
1991-92   100 -3.7
1992-93   94.2 -2.5
1993-94   110.4 -4.1
1994-95   91.2 3.1
1995-96   135.4 -0.4
1996-97   128.2 -0.5
1997-98   80.1 -0.2
1998-99   90.2 1.8
1999-00   55.5 -1.8
2000-01   99.3 2.7
2001-02   86 -0.7
2002-03   56.3 -8.5
2003-04   109.9 0.2
2004-05   91.5 1.2
2005-06   89.2 1.8
2006-07   80.7 -4.3
2007-08   80 3.6
2008-09   73.6 0.5
2009-10   65.8 -5.1
2010-11   93.4 2.8
2011-12   49.1 4.4
2012-13   129.4 -1.6
2013-14   131 0.9
2014-15   49.2 0.7
2015-16   81.4 2.2
2016-17   67 3.5
2017-18   91.9 1.5
2018-19   106.8 -3.1
2019-20   92.2 0.4
2020-21   82.6 -6.1

image.png.19d62c7f1f16cfecad3eecb800ced7fb.png

Looking at the graph, correlation looks very weak at best. Most notable things: All four seasons above 120" had an October fairly close to average. Also, no winter with over 100" of snow was more than 0.9 degrees above average. Might have a clearer picture with a larger sample size, but I thought 40 years would be plenty lmao. 

 

 

 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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I hope this pans out for the G L's region. All we can do is sit back and wait for the show to start.  Good luck to everyone!

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

I don't have time for this either but rushed some numbers into excel for Duluth. The only annoying part was flipping through every October since 1980. Not very famillar with DLH climo, but now jealous that their worst seasons are comparable to Lincoln's best 😆

Didn't feel like calculating the snowfall departures, 1991-2020 average is 90.2". Oct departures are based off 1991-20 as well - negative departures are mostly in the 80s and 90s. 


Looking at the graph, correlation looks very weak at best. Most notable things: All four seasons above 120" had an October fairly close to average. Also, no winter with over 100" of snow was more than 0.9 degrees above average. Might have a clearer picture with a larger sample size, but I thought 40 years would be plenty lmao. 

 

This is awesome to see and interesting.  The Duluth NWS/airport sites sits right at the top of "The Hill" in a prime spot for E/NE upslope flow right off the lake for Superior cutters systems.  Makes me want to do similar for other Minnesota cities like Brainerd, Bemidji, and Grand Rapids where snowfall is 100% synoptic and also parse out numbers for seasonal vs Dec-Mar where spring/fall snowstorms distort the seasonal totals (I am looking at you Halloween 1991).     

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Many I speak to are preparing for the Texas Train Wreck Part Deux. 
Our only concern is will the power people be on their toes or will we be in the dark and cold for a week? 
Trust is not there across the board.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The overnight low here at my house was a very mild 63 the official low at GRR was 62. At this time it is cloudy and  here with a dew point of 62. So far this fall season the lowest it has gotten at Grand Rapids is 47. This year will be the latest that the first low of 46 of less has happened here at Grand Rapids in recorded history. The old latest year was in 2016 with it did not reached 46 until October 8th. The next milestone will be 43 that record is now held by 1931 so if it stays at or above 41 until October 11th a another record would be set.

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I found Joe D'Aleo piece interesting this morning.

The Pacific is in the second year of a La Nina. The SSTAs at this point of the transition season bears some resemblance to 2013.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_07_04_AM.pn

The warm pool in early October that year was south of the Aleutians and moved east perhaps aided by undersea volcanism on the 'ring of fire'.

crw_heritage_50km_ssta_global_20131226.g

By mid winter it settled south of Alaska.

crw_heritage_50km_ssta_global_20140130.g

We noticed that was similar to other years than ended up very cold like 1917/18.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_13_09_AM.pn

That was a very cold winter central and east.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_13_21_AM.pn

The statistical and analog models we use showed the cold, and they verified over North America.

The Pacific is in the second year of a La Nina. The SSTAs at this point of the transition season bears some resemblance to 2013.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_07_04_AM.pn

The warm pool in early October that year was south of the Aleutians and moved east perhaps aided by undersea volcanism on the 'ring of fire'.

crw_heritage_50km_ssta_global_20131226.g

By mid winter it settled south of Alaska.

crw_heritage_50km_ssta_global_20140130.g

We noticed that was similar to other years than ended up very cold like 1917/18.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_13_09_AM.pn

That was a very cold winter central and east.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_13_21_AM.pn

The statistical and analog models we use showed the cold, and they verified over North America.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_14_14_AM.png

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On 10/4/2021 at 4:07 PM, Hawkeye said:

Keep in mind the above/below avg temp and snow numbers are pretty tame (+1, -1, 125%).

Yeah, for all the 2013-14 talk, they didn't paint anything close.

 

Weatherbell-2013_2014-Winter-Temps_Outlook.gif

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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If anyone it planning a fall color trip here is the latest color update for Michigan's UP

Upper Peninsula

Chippewa County.  60-70% color change. Peak fall color expected the first and second week in October.

Luce County: 50-60% color change . Peak fall color expected the second week in October.

Mackinac County:  40-50% color change. Peak fall color expected the second week in October.

Schoolcraft County: 40-60% color change. Peak fall color expected the first and second week in October.

Alger County:  70%-at near peak color change.

Delta County:   65%-at near peak color change

Dickinson County:  65& at near color change.

Marquette County:  75%-at peak color change

Menominee County: 55%-at color change. . Peak fall color expected the first and second week in October.

Baraga County:  80% to at peak color change

Gogebic & Ontonagon  past peak color change

Houghton & Keweenaw  80% at peak color change

Iron County:  past peak color change

The above was the report as of October 7th

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On 10/8/2021 at 10:20 AM, Clinton said:

I found Joe D'Aleo piece interesting this morning.

The Pacific is in the second year of a La Nina. The SSTAs at this point of the transition season bears some resemblance to 2013.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_07_04_AM.pn

The warm pool in early October that year was south of the Aleutians and moved east perhaps aided by undersea volcanism on the 'ring of fire'.

crw_heritage_50km_ssta_global_20131226.g

By mid winter it settled south of Alaska.

crw_heritage_50km_ssta_global_20140130.g

We noticed that was similar to other years than ended up very cold like 1917/18.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_13_09_AM.pn

That was a very cold winter central and east.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_13_21_AM.pn

The statistical and analog models we use showed the cold, and they verified over North America.

The Pacific is in the second year of a La Nina. The SSTAs at this point of the transition season bears some resemblance to 2013.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_07_04_AM.pn

The warm pool in early October that year was south of the Aleutians and moved east perhaps aided by undersea volcanism on the 'ring of fire'.

crw_heritage_50km_ssta_global_20131226.g

By mid winter it settled south of Alaska.

crw_heritage_50km_ssta_global_20140130.g

We noticed that was similar to other years than ended up very cold like 1917/18.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_13_09_AM.pn

That was a very cold winter central and east.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_13_21_AM.pn

The statistical and analog models we use showed the cold, and they verified over North America.

Screen_Shot_2021_10_07_at_10_14_14_AM.png

Good stuff Clinton. I really really want to buy a ticket aboard the winter hype train. But last year's ticket was the absolute opposite of a Powerball winner for me.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 10/8/2021 at 9:57 PM, jaster220 said:

Yeah, for all the 2013-14 talk, they didn't paint anything close.

 

Weatherbell-2013_2014-Winter-Temps_Outlook.gif

Ok, to be fair, WxBell's earlier outlook wasn't so bold as this final call. Here's their early season map:

 

WxBell 2013-14 winter temps f-cast.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I remember complaining back in Oct 2017 about how hot it was. We did get that historic December to remember tho with the holiday dream week of heavy snows and bitter cold. I'd be up for a repeat this year.

Thinking about my new region here in Wayne county, I'm pretty sure Jan of '05 was the last time the Metro region saw legit bliz conditions with 12-14" storm totals. Actually, 04-05 was an awesome winter in SEMI which included a nice hit 12/23 for Christmas as the yuuge OHV monster storm clipped Motown pretty good. I think my new place got about 8" with that.

 

snow20050123.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Absolute historic extreme cold amidst this warm era. Insane. Just proves how real the possibility of extreme winter can be.

 

In Southern Hemisphere news, super strong PV this winter (that is of course transitioning toward summer now):

  • The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September was minus-78 degrees, coldest on record (records since 1957). 4.5 degrees lower than current 30-year average
  • sea ice levels surrounding Antarctica hit 5th highest level on record in August
  • Vostok Station hit -110.9 on Thursday (9/30)
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 10/8/2021 at 11:27 AM, Hawkeye said:

Terry Swails posted his winter '21/22 discussion overnight.

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/terry-s-take-on-winter-2021-22

I appreciated the portion about "organic" prognosticating via signs of nature. Pretty impressive. There were many such signs around here at this point in 2013. As for this year, did you see that story about a squirrel hiding 200 lbs of walnuts under the hood of a pick-up truck in just 4 days? In MN iirc

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'll try to make some time today to discuss some rather interesting model data and clues that November might get off to a rather cold and wintry start.  Record weak Polar Vortex by end of Oct???  Strat Warming firing up early and often...the stage is being set...

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