jaster220 Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 JB's Saturday Summary was a re-cap/update of WxBell's winter outlook. (skip to 3:55) https://www.weatherbell.com/ 1 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 It's wonderful to see how this month of Oct will likely close out as everything seems to be orchestrating like a symphony. The target dates of a pattern shift are lining up even a little earlier than I'd anticipated. I was predicting a major trough to develop across the eastern CONUS the week of the 25th but that date may have to be shifted a few days earlier. What is transpiring is a thing of beauty....the good ol' West-Based Greenland Block is going to form, thus, leading into a massive high lat Blocking pattern. A while back I mentioned that I was diggin' the 500mb pattern the climate models were showing for Oct across Canada. It is certainly starting to shine as this 500mb pattern will generate a southern stream storm track for the second half of the month. After what will have been a little more than a week of tracking "cutters", I believe the next exhibit of the LRC will likely feature a +PNA pattern that forms an expansive W C.A. ridge alongside a West-Based Greenland/Hudson Bay Block. Last Monday's Euro Weeklies flashed this scenario but a tad later. I feel that it'll correct earlier based on the latest GEFS and EPS runs of late. Once it pops, it has the potential to Lock well into November. The JMA seasonal came out yesterday and it is also illustrating a similar North American 500mb pattern for the month of November...W Coast ridge pops while major ridging near Greenland and E Canada take over. The CFSv2 is also suggesting a similar look. Temp/Precip pattern....SW warmth while a corridor of normal temps in between the 2 warm pools across the continent where there will prob be an active storm track. Precip...active N Stream??? 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 TWC is on board! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: TWC is on board! No title on yet map. Is that Oct? Or winter? Or Nov? Thx bud 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, jaster220 said: No title on yet map. Is that Oct? Or winter? Or Nov? Thx bud Tbh, I think its "Late Autumn, Winter Temperature Outlook." Anytime bud! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 Alrighty, this may be a longer than usual post as I've gathered enough data to confidently say that November is going to come out of the gates with "Tastes of Winter". It has been long believed and predicted by JB and others that we would see a Fast start to Winter this year. What I'm going to do is lay down the data points and LR clues which suggest this analogy may not be far fetched. In fact, I'll say Boldly that we, as a nation, may be dealt an ugly early blow from Ol' Man Winter early more often than not for next month. This, in many ways, may not be the best outcome for reasons such as our heating bills this cold season. I'm actually getting a bit worried about this scenario...but, that's a whole other topic of conversation. Stock up on those cords of wood is all I gotta say, esp those up north where it is common to do so. Let me start off by showing last night's Euro Weeklies that "corrected" to my suggestion of an earlier transition to an eastern CONUS trough next week. As the month of Oct closes out, the beginnings of a Long Term Long Wave Western NAMER ridge sets up. This will have legs my friends. Why? Here's why I believe this to be an accurate prediction for the above...in the animations below, both at 30mb/50mb, the location of the strat warming around the end of Sept through Oct 12th (end of run) are illustrating an carbon copy scenario where the LR Euro weeklies model is developing the blocking running up along the W coast of NAMER up into AK/NW NAMER. I've used this data before many times that has worked in predicting the pattern 3+ weeks in advance. I don't see why it would fail me this time. You'd be blind not to see the troughs being locked right over the U.S. Next on the List, are you thinking about Snow??? My goodness, the trends keep getting snowier each run and yesterday's is going bonkers for the Rockies and into the central CONUS. The Euro Control run is absolutely wild come mid November. Freakin' nuts I tell ya. The below map is the accumulative 45-day mean...#WinterIsCometh What are the models saying about the Polar Vortex??? Well, Dr. Cohen is getting pretty excited based on the model trends and what they are showing. A rather earlier Strat Warming event is going to blossom right over the Arctic/Archipelago to close out Oct. How weak will the PV get? Does it last? These are the questions that remain to be seen bc we all know how quickly the models can change, esp with the strength/location of the PV. Nonetheless, there is a lot to look forward to as a winter wx enthusiast for this season. Trust me, like many of you, all I ask is for an old fashioned long winter...could this year be the one?? Let's ponder on this idea... I'll finish with this comment as I like to see what the UKMET model is showing and that is a trend for more high lat blocking near Greenland/eastern Canada for DJF. The strongest signal is for a stout -EPO. I commented in an earlier post in the Oct thread that I see a clear signal developing out near Hawaii and points east into So Cal. The pattern is showing the development of a distinct trough like corridor which points to the idea of a -EPO once the ridge pops out west next month. Last run... Current Run... 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 Joe Bastardi with some Stratospheric Warming analogs that point to a cooler November and a cold December. New Stratwarm analogs based on Halloween GEFS forecast Note the 8 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event based analogs for the stratosphere on October 31: You seriously can't get closer to the forecast for October 31: The time period is from 1951-2010 (all the strong events in there). The message remains that we will step down in November, with December being the coldest month, and it becomes a crapshoot after. While against 1991-2020 this would be colder, the message is made more clear to me by using the 60 year period where these samples occurred (only 8 times). In all cases, the period from Thanksgiving to Christmas was well below normal for GWHDDs. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 53 minutes ago, Clinton said: Joe Bastardi with some Stratospheric Warming analogs that point to a cooler November and a cold December. New Stratwarm analogs based on Halloween GEFS forecast Note the 8 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event based analogs for the stratosphere on October 31: You seriously can't get closer to the forecast for October 31: The time period is from 1951-2010 (all the strong events in there). The message remains that we will step down in November, with December being the coldest month, and it becomes a crapshoot after. While against 1991-2020 this would be colder, the message is made more clear to me by using the 60 year period where these samples occurred (only 8 times). In all cases, the period from Thanksgiving to Christmas was well below normal for GWHDDs. December of 1983 got my attention. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: December of 1983 got my attention. And Dec 1977…you have to wonder… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 5 hours ago, Tom said: And Dec 1977…you have to wonder… ..and '89..and..and It's like the "who's who" list of brutal Decembers around The Mitt. Notice the max departures just south in the OHV. And he's right about the "crap shoot" into the new year. The ones I remember personally (78 and onward), most were good with even some historic stuff thrown in so there's that to put up against what obviously were some real duds to get to the maps shown. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: ..and '89..and..and It's like the "who's who" list of brutal Decembers around The Mitt. Notice the max departures just south in the OHV. And he's right about the "crap shoot" into the new year. The ones I remember personally (78 and onward), most were good with even some historic stuff thrown in so there's that to put up against what obviously were some real duds to get to the maps shown. I think a lot what happens with the Polar Vortex this year will be an important role as to whether this winter hits and holds for our Sub or reverses course in Jan/Feb. If the PV strengthens mid/late winter (which Judah Cohen mentions) then we will have to bank on the high lat blocking...but that's not a given. In any event, I'm actually more confident than normal that we should have a better start to Winter compared to previous years. The holiday season should be fun instead of experiencing a December whereby we are grilling outdoors... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Thanks to Ben Noll and his free snow anomaly maps....using these multi-model as guidance... Oct...late month cold period near the GL's??? The models are trending that way in recent days.... Nov....a continuation??? Dec...this looks interesting for our Sub...esp the I-80 corridor and S MW...wait a sec, isn't this where the LRC's hot spot has been showing signs of a Long Term Long Wave pattern??? Interesting... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 8 hours ago, Tom said: Thanks to Ben Noll and his free snow anomaly maps....using these multi-model as guidance... Oct...late month cold period near the GL's??? The models are trending that way in recent days.... Nov....a continuation??? Dec...this looks interesting for our Sub...esp the I-80 corridor and S MW...wait a sec, isn't this where the LRC's hot spot has been showing signs of a Long Term Long Wave pattern??? Interesting... What'd I miss? I only see AN "greens" in far N latitudes. Nothing but oranges down our way Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: What'd I miss? I only see AN "greens" in far N latitudes. Nothing but oranges down our way Look a little closer…there are two pockets of slightly AN snowfall near NE/IA and over STL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 hours ago, Tom said: Look a little closer…there are two pockets of slightly AN snowfall near NE/IA and over STL. Ok, when I got home to my PC and zoomed the maps up, I do see that "barely above" normal light shading. I also see most of SMI with a "barely below" orange tint. Either are probably noise-level variations and just fall into average (+/-5%). Nothing to phone home about. I realize none of this has to be accurate (bad or good) from this range but I was hopeful to see a much snowier look by December since it wants to trade places with January temperature-wise. Decembers of 2016 and 2017 delivered 212% and 186% respectively in Marshall. That balanced out the 2014 & 15 dumpster fires. Now, as you noted, the last (3) straight Decembers have also been garbage. It's balancing time again, lol. I will say that some of those historic analog yrs (83,89) were pretty dry away from the LES belts so there is, unfortunately, precedent for a CAD outcome. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Some more random October research. I wanted to see if there was any correlation between October and our truly snowy winters (not just slightly above average). Going back to 1970, all winters in which KC got 25" or more snow (Average is 19"), the preceding October was either near or below normal for temps. Out of 11 such winters, only 1984 and 2010 had above normal temps in October. 1984 was 0.2 degrees above normal and 2010 was 2.2 degrees above normal. So, significantly snowy winters in KC follow warm Octobers only about 18 percent of the time -- at least since 1970. Been thinking the same thing as we go back into warmth dominating autumn wx. The mega-flip can and does happen, but historically the better winters kinda show their hand via chilly autumns. We will really hafta ride the 10-11 and 13-14 analogs hard for this to "pan out" the way we are hoping it does. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Joe Bastardi showing analogs of the 3 previous Octobers that resemble our current October the most. Joe Bastardi Oct 19 2021 Closest October Analogs The 3 closest analogs to what we have currently ? are 1997 ( which was a super nino and amazingly almost exactly like what we see now despite a La Nina coming on, a classic case of ships passing in the night heading different ways enso wise) ? 1995 ? and 2005 ? The November/December that followed was like this ? The 97-98 winter was bizzare. Cause Nov was so darn cold ? December started to break, then the rout was on ? ? 95-96. stayed of course though there was last half of Jan resistance to the cold including the most heartbreaking wipe out of snowcover I have ever seen, largely because the Alleghany blade, which is set off by a strong ssw jet at. 850mb. came down off the mountain south of my house, wiped out all the snow cover in Boalsburg ( 30 inches went in 36 hours). while the reverse eddy that develops a few miles east of my house kept winds light in State college and left about 6 on the ground, which turned into a super cover when the arctic air returned. My buddies at accuweather at the time warned me not to move to Boalsburg, which they called a weather desert, but my wife wanted too. Ah the things we do for love 2005 reversed in from the warm fall for a time in December, then a blowtorch developed for Jan. Winter did return though mid Feb into March, with a blizzard of 58 like snowstorm in the I-95 corridor. Funny story. I had been a huge fight at work over that storm. I was pulling out the old magic chart we used to use in old days before the kind of precip printouts that evolved ( Cahir used to say if you knew how those amounts were arrived at you would never use them). In any case we would look at 6 hour vv in microbars/sec and if we were at -3 or -8 at 5k used that for snow amounts. So the modeling was showing that right over the I-95 corridor with a bullseye over NYC ( The art museum scene in Rocky Balboa was filmed at the start of the storm btw) 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 Here is another one Euro Seeing the Juan 1985 option which is another analog year in the mix Anyway strong troughs were marching by to the north one after another and piece broke off in the gulf, entrained a piece of the monsoonal trough that was spitting features out west of Mexico and drew it into the gulf so when I saw the 240 me with my selective memory and bias influenced vivid imagination ( a product of believing the wether unlike what alot of people that are not intimately involved with the weather in a personal way, but wish to use it for their own agendas, so everything is the worst ever and never happened before) remembered Juan and the look on the 240 which will probably disappear on the next run but it was nice while it happened December 1985, btw looked like this 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 19, 2021 Report Share Posted October 19, 2021 La Nina update from Joe D'Aleo La Nina Update The MEI has a moderate La Nina - comparable to 2020, 1998, 2007, 1988. See the two month MEI values back to 1998. The NINO34 has been less enthusiastic so far but it is a 3 month running mean and should jump in ASO. The surface is showing the cold water move west in the equatorial easterlies. See the cold water expand and deepen. We have to watch the warm water northwest of Hawaii which was similar in 2013 and moved northeast to the Gulf of Alaska and its ridge built arctic highs and propelled them southeast targeting the Lakes. The models show La Nina peaking NDJ and easing. The outlier NASA model is 1C colder. Research by CPC decades ago (ignored because now not politically correct) showed QBO modulated ENSO and solar impacts. It nailed 202021 with west QBO favoring a cold northwest and north central (opening the door for February polar vortex to Texas). The east QBO is developing and would shift cold more to the east The MJO tends to avoid long stays over cold water and that means La Ninas are typically fickle with cold and warm (like last year) as the MJO returned The MJO though now is not playing and we are seeing signs of an early polar strat warm event and as JB showed the teleconnections are heading cold. The northern storms tracks are beginning to show. The wet July to September northeast years averaged cold in December. The statistical model I play with has a cold start and end to winter. It has done well with a warm October and we see signs in the EPS and CFS of cold east and west in November, so so far so good.. The 'mean' NDJFM 500mb height anomalies support the La Nina/low solar/east QBO mean. The top match year was a warm winter but cold water developed all along the west coast which kept the trough west. If that should develop, it and we will adjust that direction. If the warm water moves to the GOA and the strat warm event blossoms, Katy bar the door. ----------- Note the weather world's dynamical models have moved warmer as La Nina signal increased. See how the IRI based on the CPC NMME went from a cold winter to a warm one the last 2 runs as the La Nina signal increased. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 not the right direction to be moving in atm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 See how close this is...45 day map 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 20, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 An interesting stat from @WGNWx... Another picture perfect day! For those keeping score at home, the mercury has reached 70°+ for the 156th time this year, tied for 4th most to date on record: 1. 1963: 163 2. 1955: 161 3. 2017: 157 4. 2021, 2007, 2005: 156 2017, 2007 and 2005 all ended up becoming La Nina's during mid and late Autumn into Winter. 2007 was the strongest in the bunch with a mean ONI index of -1.3C during SON and -1.6C during Winter. Could be some interesting correlations with the 2007-2008 winter. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 20, 2021 Report Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: An interesting stat from @WGNWx... Another picture perfect day! For those keeping score at home, the mercury has reached 70°+ for the 156th time this year, tied for 4th most to date on record: 1. 1963: 163 2. 1955: 161 3. 2017: 157 4. 2021, 2007, 2005: 156 2017, 2007 and 2005 all ended up becoming La Nina's during mid and late Autumn into Winter. 2007 was the strongest in the bunch with a mean ONI index of -1.3C during SON and -1.6C during Winter. Could be some interesting correlations with the 2007-2008 winter. The TORs here in SMI this month brought back memories of 2007. That and 2017 were the best from that list around here. pretty sure 63-64 was a down season after the historic cold of 62-63 when Lake Michigan froze solid. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2021 NOAA just release their Winter Outlook... https://www.climate.gov/WinterOutlook2021 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 We’ll, if they’re right, Texas won’t complain. Last year just about about flattened our attitude and broke some people financially. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Groundbreaking info for us in Nebraska. Equal chances for above/below average precipitation and temperatures this winter. 1 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 This stinks. We usually take a family road trip through the Ozarks but no point this year. The leaves around here are not bright at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 05-06 was another one-month-wonder, similar to 00-01 except not to that level in Dec and whereas 06 went warm, 01 at least stayed reasonable tho a flake-less wonder during JAN/FEB. 88-89 was akin to 11-12 (more horrible bad ju-ju) 97-98 was classic mega-NIno, cold autumn storms then "poof" On the brighter side: 07-08 rocked the house, tho I can't say what QBO dominated that winter? Odd seeing October of '95 so warm as it holds the crown for earliest of winters in my lifetime. I remember driving home across the highlands of NMI in solid snow squalls that October and by Vet's Day in November we'd had our first legit bliz. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 They say a pictures worth a thousand words. This tells a yuuge story for SMI And for Chi-town.. Cold/Wet Winters - Chicago 2008-09: 22.4F & 10.32" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1984-85: 21.9F & 7.86" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1917-18: 21.0F & 7.81" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1886-87: 22.5F & 9.99" ?? 1884-85: 22.2F & 9.40" ?? 1882-83: 21.9F & 8.47" ?? 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 ^^ Good Stuff. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 9 hours ago, jaster220 said: They say a pictures worth a thousand words. This tells a yuuge story for SMI And for Chi-town.. Cold/Wet Winters - Chicago 2008-09: 22.4F & 10.32" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1984-85: 21.9F & 7.86" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1917-18: 21.0F & 7.81" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1886-87: 22.5F & 9.99" ?? 1884-85: 22.2F & 9.40" ?? 1882-83: 21.9F & 8.47" ?? This is great stuff and it looks like we will be adding another set of years to the list. A repeat of 11-12 would be amazing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Am I missing your sarcasm? Winter 11-12 was the least snowy winter on record for KC (and the year I moved here). LOL. Yeah, pencil me confused. 11-12 is like the modern record holder for dumpster fire winter. That being said, my former back yard in Marshall actually did much BETTER in 11-12 compared to last year. If I remember my numbers correctly, something like 44" in 11-12 vs 36" last winter. That should say something about what a horrid winter I am coming off personally. The bar has been set so low, it's actually the perfect time to move to Wayne cnty, one of the lowest avg snow counties in The Mitt. Clinton!!! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 32 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Am I missing your sarcasm? Winter 11-12 was the least snowy winter on record for KC (and the year I moved here). Sorry I got my years confused I was thinking 10-11. It was Feb of '11 I was hit with a blizzard and got 26 inches of snow. My bad guys 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Getting the itch to see this map in a deeper shade of blue! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 11 hours ago, Clinton said: Sorry I got my years confused I was thinking 10-11. It was Feb of '11 I was hit with a blizzard and got 26 inches of snow. My bad guys Dont worry about it bud! Noone is perfect! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 So, this is WGN's glimpse into the GL's..."expected" to be warm...b/c NOAA says so....I hope they did some of their own "digging" like some of the mets do across the region instead of just obeying to NOAA. Who knows, they may end up being right in the end. Time will tell. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 5 hours ago, Tom said: So, this is WGN's glimpse into the GL's..."expected" to be warm...b/c NOAA says so....I hope they did some of their own "digging" like some of the mets do across the region instead of just obeying to NOAA. Who knows, they may end up being right in the end. Time will tell. This is the part that smells of "copy-n-paste". Do they not look at historical compilations of 2nd year Nina's and how they include many of the top coldest and snowy winters in the region?? Peeps east of CLE are ecstatic at the elevated lake warmth, lol. The warmer the better since it creates more Delta-T extremes and should take longer to get iced over in the event of cold outbreaks. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 5 hours ago, jaster220 said: This is the part that smells of "copy-n-paste". Do they not look at historical compilations of 2nd year Nina's and how they include many of the top coldest and snowy winters in the region?? Peeps east of CLE are ecstatic at the elevated lake warmth, lol. The warmer the better since it creates more Delta-T extremes and should take longer to get iced over in the event of cold outbreaks. They mentioned heavier lake effect snow events. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted October 25, 2021 Report Share Posted October 25, 2021 21 hours ago, jaster220 said: This is the part that smells of "copy-n-paste". Do they not look at historical compilations of 2nd year Nina's and how they include many of the top coldest and snowy winters in the region?? Peeps east of CLE are ecstatic at the elevated lake warmth, lol. The warmer the better since it creates more Delta-T extremes and should take longer to get iced over in the event of cold outbreaks. The biggest thing I've learned spending time on this forum is that TV "meteorologists" are more actors than actual scientists or meteorologists. Most of them don't do anything, they repeat model predictions and add some drama for ratings. As soon a medium range forecast shows any meaningful snows TV mets will be smearing their channels with "FIRST GIANT SNOWSTORM OF THE YEAR COULD IT BE THE NEXT HUGE BLIZZARD THIS EARLY!?!?" and then you get 2 inches tops, probably a dusting. And then the liberal ones blame the lack of snow on climate change lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 25, 2021 Report Share Posted October 25, 2021 Good blog today from Lezak, he discusses this years pattern so far, the storm ongoing right now and the upcoming storm later this week. https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-hurricane-rick-heads-our-way-a-major-storm-develops 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.