Jump to content

Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

47 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Strat Warm round 2 already?  Terry Swails has a great blog today with some comparisons to 1989.

0d40d5_6b4ade30e2d24452986687518d8acf89~mv2.webp

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/doubling-down-on-more-rain

NO joke, but is this a coincidence or what?  I just read through that article and wouldn't ya know it, that surface map is so friggin' close to what the 0z EPS is showing for D9 right down the heartland!  Amazing similarities...this will undoubtedly cycle through several times this cold season.

image.png

image.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

KC had its all time record low in December 1989. 

 

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

NO joke, but is this a coincidence or what?  I just read through that article and wouldn't ya know it, that surface map is so friggin' close to what the 0z EPS is showing for D9 right down the heartland!  Amazing similarities...this will undoubtedly cycle through several times this cold season.

image.png 

image.png

I was 11 years old and that was one of my first major weather memories, our house hit -23 KC was a little colder.  And those maps kinda give me chills just looking at them wow!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

I was 11 years old and that was one of my first major weather memories, our house hit -23 KC was a little colder.  And those maps kinda give me chills just looking at them wow!

If I remember correctly, we got down to -33 in Central Nebraska.  That was quite a December.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For what it is worth here is a winter forecast for Canada.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8325067/canada-winter-forecast-2021-2022/
Of note for our area is
"An early onslaught of cold and snow will be aided by the relatively mild Great Lakes. The incredible warmth earlier this fall means water temperatures are running anywhere from three to five degrees above normal.

This may initially moderate the Arctic chill, but it will also create the ideal setup for lake effect snow in November and December.

Like last winter, the quick start won’t last. Significant thaws are expected in January and February with above-normal rainfall.
These storms will also contain significant snow which is typical with La Niña. Yes, It is possible to have above-normal temperatures AND snowfall in the middle of winter.

March will likely shift colder than average again, prolonging the workload for those busy snowplow operators.

I’m expecting some great skiing and boarding conditions during the holidays, but resorts will have trouble with the freeze-thaw cycles mid-season."
We shall see if this plays out.

 

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, westMJim said:

For what it is worth here is a winter forecast for Canada.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8325067/canada-winter-forecast-2021-2022/
Of note for our area is
"An early onslaught of cold and snow will be aided by the relatively mild Great Lakes. The incredible warmth earlier this fall means water temperatures are running anywhere from three to five degrees above normal.

This may initially moderate the Arctic chill, but it will also create the ideal setup for lake effect snow in November and December.

Like last winter, the quick start won’t last. Significant thaws are expected in January and February with above-normal rainfall.
These storms will also contain significant snow which is typical with La Niña. Yes, It is possible to have above-normal temperatures AND snowfall in the middle of winter.

March will likely shift colder than average again, prolonging the workload for those busy snowplow operators.

I’m expecting some great skiing and boarding conditions during the holidays, but resorts will have trouble with the freeze-thaw cycles mid-season."
We shall see if this plays out.

 

Per the comparison to early winter 1989, the relaxing into January was indeed a feature of the 89-90 winter. The big thaw in January ended with NMI's second 2-foot blizzard. I moved up to Traverse in Sept of '90 and heard a lot of stories firsthand. It was such a dynamic bomb storm, many could not make it home from work that day. Ended up walking to nearby motels. Both November's and January's storms were bigly bombs. Another winter when the Nov-Jan connection worked out. Be nice to see some "bombs" again.

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/28/2021 at 4:05 PM, someweatherdude said:

Not sure where else to put this, so I'll put it here.  Graphs showing extent of land covered by snow in NA every Fall, Winter and Spring since 1967.  Not what I expected to see.  I really expected to see Fall, in particular, with a downward trend because it feels like fall and early winter have been warmer and less snowy of late.  But please don't turn this into a political discussion! Winter.png.3b9cce8646631fdd30d137adc44db2cb.pngSpring.png.ebfeebd6067591ffe1397a28f039ef07.pngFall.png.d98d8b278611c658359b2f78d77b3193.png

Key words: North American

Covers a ton of territory north of the border. As for autumn increasing my gut feeling is we are being lied to (j/k). Back in the 40s-60s the jet slowly worked south into winter. Since then we've seen icreasing volitility and early cold plunges and snows further south. Maybe not where you are but overall its been a trend. Just my 2 cents

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, Clinton said:

December obviously stands out, these are the analog years they used.

5pnwQoDGJg.png

Yeah, that's a crazy Decemberrrr map even for WxBell

  • Like 4

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Don't look at the end of the Euro runs.  Looks ugly if you like winter or even fall.  

I have to defer back to the rules of weather's recent history over the Bering Sea and other factors ongoing and have to toss that for the next couple days.

Just keep watching....I really think the "cold team" is the safe bet here, and when the cold dumps over the N Pac shut down, N.A. is  the target.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I have to defer back to the rules of weather's recent history over the Bering Sea and other factors ongoing and have to toss that for the next couple days.

Just keep watching....I really think the "cold team" is the safe bet here, and when the cold dumps over the N Pac shut down, N.A. is  the target.

 

Euro Weeklies seem to be in that camp...Thanksgiving Week into early Dec look like Winter locks in for a bit...

 

1.gif

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/29/2021 at 11:08 AM, Clinton said:

December obviously stands out, these are the analog years they used.

5pnwQoDGJg.png

Surprised to see some warm ones in their list with that map. Who knows, perhaps we are being set-up for another clunker?? (ducks)

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom changed the title to Autumn & Winter 2021 Observations and Discussion

I went ahead and updated the name of this thread to include the upcoming winter of 2021-22.  

On a side note, I happened to read that ORD's new seasonal snowfall has been upped from 36.3" to 38.4" (+2.1").  It's interesting to see it rise a couple inches.  I remember having some banner years in the late 2000's where we had a streak of 4 or 5 seasons hitting the 50"+ mark.  The infamous and historic '13-14' season prob helped also and the dreadful decade of the 90's that had many Nino's is no longer in the calculation.  Hopefully this new decade can continue the increasing trend!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Basrardi today as he keeps hammering home the idea of a cold December.

That Map oughta get your attention

 

The GEFS Day 35 stratosphere forecast:

gfs_ensemble_extended_all_avg_globe_t10_

It is interesting to note similar stratospheric warmings to this occurred in three of the coldest Decembers of the last 100 years - 1976, 1983, and 1989. I realize this is after this forecast period, but I am sticking it here because I want to make sure it's something that you see rather than an afterthought. It's what is off the beaten path that you won't see if you just stay on the same trail everyone else is on. I think it is important to know not only what the 20 day says but what could happen after, and sometimes you may overlook something if it's not in repetitive form. So expect to see this again in the Monthly and the 90-day. Those stratosphere patterns on December 7:

compday_GRCN5wIoIW.gif

Those Decembers temperature-wise:

cd71_58_91_226_310_20_14_10_prcp.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

From Basrardi today as he keeps hammering home the idea of a cold December.

That Map oughta get your attention

 

The GEFS Day 35 stratosphere forecast:

gfs_ensemble_extended_all_avg_globe_t10_

It is interesting to note similar stratospheric warmings to this occurred in three of the coldest Decembers of the last 100 years - 1976, 1983, and 1989. I realize this is after this forecast period, but I am sticking it here because I want to make sure it's something that you see rather than an afterthought. It's what is off the beaten path that you won't see if you just stay on the same trail everyone else is on. I think it is important to know not only what the 20 day says but what could happen after, and sometimes you may overlook something if it's not in repetitive form. So expect to see this again in the Monthly and the 90-day. Those stratosphere patterns on December 7:

compday_GRCN5wIoIW.gif

Those Decembers temperature-wise:

cd71_58_91_226_310_20_14_10_prcp.png

Where's my "brrrr" icon??

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom changed the title to Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion
7 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Certainly is eye candy.  That pretty much puts KC in a jackpot.  So you guys can be pretty sure that's not how it will really turn out.  KC doesn't get jackpots.  Hope springs eternal though.  

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. We've had some big months in the past its just been awhile and October looked promising. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Love all this fantasy range epic cold and snowiness.   Only to get more average as time gets closer.  

 

Eventually it will be right for a week or two and there will be a lot of celebrating.  

Pretty sure all of the maps showing cold have been valid for the 2nd half of November and December. Both still look to verify. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Love all this fantasy range epic cold and snowiness.   Only to get more average as time gets closer.  

 

Eventually it will be right for a week or two and there will be a lot of celebrating.  

 

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Pretty sure all of the maps showing cold have been valid for the 2nd half of November and December. Both still look to verify. 

 

In a way, he's right. I was around to experience and remember all three extremely cold Dec's that JB/WxBell has been touting in looking at their forecast for the winter. And all (3) autums, up to this point anyway, were much more noticeably memorable for snow and/or cold than this autumn. Again, this year could easily play catch-up, but to date it's lagging and by next week (11-15) the bar is raised even higher wrt snowstorms/cold waves. So, while we wait-n-see if trends verify there is some merit to his soft ranting and skeptic's comments.

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

 

In a way, he's right. I was around to experience and remember all three extremely cold Dec's that JB/WxBell has been touting in looking at their forecast for the winter. And all (3) autums, up to this point anyway, were much more noticeably memorable for snow and/or cold than this autumn. Again, this year could easily play catch-up, but to date it's lagging and by next week (11-15) the bar is raised even higher wrt snowstorms/cold waves. So, while we wait-n-see if trends verify there is some merit to his soft ranting and skeptic's comments.

I’m a cynic by nature.  No pun intended.  I need to see it to believe it.  Like Nov 2014 or March 2012. That was amazing to experience.     You can love the predictions.  Love the long range trends.  But until it happens, there are no guarantees.   We could easily end up with just a plain average Nov Dec.  Which would seem amazing considering the last 5-6 years.  our first average  inch of snow is coming up.  Looks like we will be right near average.    Trust me.  I want cold and snow. Someone needs to reel the forum In a bit 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I’m a cynic by nature.  No pun intended.  I need to see it to believe it.  Like Nov 2014 or March 2012. That was amazing to experience.     You can love the predictions.  Love the long range trends.  But until it happens, there are no guarantees.   We could easily end up with just a plain average Nov Dec.  Which would seem amazing considering the last 5-6 years.  our first average  inch of snow is coming up.  Looks like we will be right near average.    Trust me.  I want cold and snow. Someone needs to reel the forum In a bit 

I know Tom. He's not only a great guy and leader of our forum, but an enthusiast's enthusiast at heart. Also, as forum admin/leader I think he considers the entire region his back yard, lol. Personally I am not one to get much from seeing an event from afar, like say when S/ND gets slammed. I get excited for snow imby, or at least former back yards, lol. Places I can get to if I wish to hop in my car for a few hours. Anyways, it still feels more autumn than winter here with the relaxing of last week's BN regime.

Looping '89-90 tells me you'd not be thrilled by a repeat. Talk about NW flow, more like NNW for the LES hits. Take a look at St. Joseph peeps greeting Santa on Christmas morning with 42" OTG! It started with a strong bowling ball storm that passed just south of MI mid-month.

 

 

1989-12-25 Snow Depth.PNG

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I know Tom. He's not only a great guy and leader of our forum, but an enthusiast's enthusiast at heart. Also, as forum admin/leader I think he considers the entire region his back yard, lol. Personally I am not one to get much from seeing an event from afar, like say when S/ND gets slammed. I get excited for snow imby, or at least former back yards, lol. Places I can get to if I wish to hop in my car for a few hours. Anyways, it still feels more autumn than winter here with the relaxing of last week's BN regime.

Looping '89-90 tells me you'd not be thrilled by a repeat. Talk about NW flow, more like NNW for the LES hits. Take a look at St. Joseph peeps greeting Santa on Christmas morning with 42" OTG! It started with a strong bowling ball storm that passed just south of MI mid-month.

 

 

1989-12-25 Snow Depth.PNG

I’m 10-15 miles from the big LES.  But I’ve seen some crazy amounts with a W to WSW flow.  I lived in Grand Haven in 2014.  We didn’t get any lake effect in November 2014 compared to where I live now.  Blew over our head.  I want a repeat of that.  20 degrees and 20 inches of snow by thanksgiving.  Give me that and I’ll say wow.    
 

I love Tom and all his posts.  I’m here because he posts a lot of interesting stuff.  I also love to joke around and have fun.  I hope he’s right.  I just see things differently.  I don’t trust monthly forecasts.  I’ve seen them burn to the ground too many times.  You can double with 11 against a 6 in blackjack all day.  But it’s not a guaranteed win until all the cards are dealt.  
 

my forecast keeps getting warmer in the long range by the way.  But I don’t trust that either.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd like to comment on the extended LR pattern for a bit.  Ok, sooo, here it comes....my long standing idea of a "pull back" is showing up in the LR signals I tend to lean towards which is by looking at what is happening up in the Strat.  Clearly, the NE PAC/W Canada trough is IMO going to show up towards the end of Nov into opening of Dec.  This provides us multiple clues into the LR pattern.  For one, this will undoubtedly be the return of the "similar" pattern we saw in Oct.  Second, we should also see a wave train of systems coming off the PAC.  Now, don't loose out hope for some wintry systems bc the blossoming warmer temps near Greenland/NE Canada suggest Blocking.  At this time of year, however, this "seeds" colder air into the pattern but how far it bleeds south is TBD.  

 

You'll see by Nov 3rd/4th the deep blues showing up hugging NW NAMER....suggests a trough pattern by end of Nov...

 

temp10anim.gif

 

The pattern I see to close out Nov and open up December will prob feature cutters & N stream systems....how hard they cut will depend on the strength of the SER that should return as well.  Using the BSR as guidance, below you can see the expansive HP ridge traversing the Aleutians that pretty much stays put for about a few days along with a system that tracks north into the Bearing Sea (likely an Upper MW system Dec 1st-3rd??).   Then, we see a slow moving system track underneath the blossoming ridge over the top (suggesting a storm around Dec 5th-8th) that will prob snap the pattern back to a more colder/wintrier one.  The blossoming ridge is also an indication that the Greenland block means business.

With all that being said, if you are worried about putting up Christmas decor this year during inclement weather, you'll have a good window after Thanksgiving.  I will say, however, Thanksgiving week is still looking active and wintry for many of you across the central Sub.  So, there may be snow OTG for parts of the MW/GL's region, but will it melt away???  I think that may happen except for those up north.

1.gif

 

I'll save the best for last because towards the end of Week 1 in Dec, this is when I believe the real deal fun begins and Winter will have sustained legs.  The storm I'm seeing during the beginning of Week 1 in Dec will be a big deal in terms of sustained winter.  The 0z EPS 5-day mean below suggests to look out below....#southernstream storm track starting post 8th/9th of Dec.  Let's all enjoy the start of the holiday season and tracking winter storms...it'll be a busy busy season!

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those of you who use the LRC will remember a cut-off low back on Oct 6th (as the new LRC started) that tracked up from the GOM towards the lower lakes.  That same part of the pattern has been showing up on the long range models around Nov 24th.  While this run of the GFS doesn't have everything perfect (to weak with the blocking) it's close enough for me to say our cycle length will be 49-50 days this year.  After that system we had a hard cutter and a strong storm that ejected out of the Texas panhandle on Oct 10th, 11th.  With that in mind I would like to make my first call for a snow storm for KC, Eastern Iowa, and Wisc on November 29th and 30th.  If I'm wrong feel free to hurl insults, eggs, tomatoes lol.  Exciting times ahead.  Should also mention this cut-off low I'm showing could produce also, it didn't wrap up much moisture for KC the last time but it got itself together real nice by the time it reached the lower lakes.

gfs_z500aNorm_us_59.png

  • Like 4
  • lol 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Those of you who use the LRC will remember a cut-off low back on Oct 6th (as the new LRC started) that tracked up from the GOM towards the lower lakes.  That same part of the pattern has been showing up on the long range models around Nov 24th.  While this run of the GFS doesn't have everything perfect (to weak with the blocking) it's close enough for me to say our cycle length will be 49-50 days this year.  After that system we had a hard cutter and a strong storm that ejected out of the Texas panhandle on Oct 10th, 11th.  With that in mind I would like to make my first call for a snow storm for KC, Eastern Iowa, and Wisc on November 29th and 30th.  If I'm wrong feel free to hurl insults, eggs, tomatoes lol.  Exciting times ahead.  Should also mention this cut-off low I'm showing could produce also, it didn't wrap up much moisture for KC the last time but it got itself together real nice by the time it reached the lower lakes.

gfs_z500aNorm_us_59.png

That was a good one amigo! Literally had me laughing off my chair. 🤣

But in any case, I hope you guys get this snowstorm. Good luck on that one!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 372

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

    5. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

×
×
  • Create New...