Clinton Posted October 27, 2021 Report Share Posted October 27, 2021 Strat Warm round 2 already? Terry Swails has a great blog today with some comparisons to 1989. https://www.tswails.com/single-post/doubling-down-on-more-rain 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2021 47 minutes ago, Clinton said: Strat Warm round 2 already? Terry Swails has a great blog today with some comparisons to 1989. https://www.tswails.com/single-post/doubling-down-on-more-rain NO joke, but is this a coincidence or what? I just read through that article and wouldn't ya know it, that surface map is so friggin' close to what the 0z EPS is showing for D9 right down the heartland! Amazing similarities...this will undoubtedly cycle through several times this cold season. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 27, 2021 Report Share Posted October 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: KC had its all time record low in December 1989. 12 minutes ago, Tom said: NO joke, but is this a coincidence or what? I just read through that article and wouldn't ya know it, that surface map is so friggin' close to what the 0z EPS is showing for D9 right down the heartland! Amazing similarities...this will undoubtedly cycle through several times this cold season. I was 11 years old and that was one of my first major weather memories, our house hit -23 KC was a little colder. And those maps kinda give me chills just looking at them wow! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 27, 2021 Report Share Posted October 27, 2021 26 minutes ago, Clinton said: I was 11 years old and that was one of my first major weather memories, our house hit -23 KC was a little colder. And those maps kinda give me chills just looking at them wow! If I remember correctly, we got down to -33 in Central Nebraska. That was quite a December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 27, 2021 Report Share Posted October 27, 2021 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: KC had its all time record low in December 1989. While that is true December 1983 overall was not only colder it was also snowier. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 27, 2021 Report Share Posted October 27, 2021 For what it is worth here is a winter forecast for Canada. https://globalnews.ca/news/8325067/canada-winter-forecast-2021-2022/ Of note for our area is "An early onslaught of cold and snow will be aided by the relatively mild Great Lakes. The incredible warmth earlier this fall means water temperatures are running anywhere from three to five degrees above normal. This may initially moderate the Arctic chill, but it will also create the ideal setup for lake effect snow in November and December. Like last winter, the quick start won’t last. Significant thaws are expected in January and February with above-normal rainfall. These storms will also contain significant snow which is typical with La Niña. Yes, It is possible to have above-normal temperatures AND snowfall in the middle of winter. March will likely shift colder than average again, prolonging the workload for those busy snowplow operators. I’m expecting some great skiing and boarding conditions during the holidays, but resorts will have trouble with the freeze-thaw cycles mid-season." We shall see if this plays out. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2021 Report Share Posted October 27, 2021 25 minutes ago, westMJim said: For what it is worth here is a winter forecast for Canada. https://globalnews.ca/news/8325067/canada-winter-forecast-2021-2022/ Of note for our area is "An early onslaught of cold and snow will be aided by the relatively mild Great Lakes. The incredible warmth earlier this fall means water temperatures are running anywhere from three to five degrees above normal. This may initially moderate the Arctic chill, but it will also create the ideal setup for lake effect snow in November and December. Like last winter, the quick start won’t last. Significant thaws are expected in January and February with above-normal rainfall. These storms will also contain significant snow which is typical with La Niña. Yes, It is possible to have above-normal temperatures AND snowfall in the middle of winter. March will likely shift colder than average again, prolonging the workload for those busy snowplow operators. I’m expecting some great skiing and boarding conditions during the holidays, but resorts will have trouble with the freeze-thaw cycles mid-season." We shall see if this plays out. Per the comparison to early winter 1989, the relaxing into January was indeed a feature of the 89-90 winter. The big thaw in January ended with NMI's second 2-foot blizzard. I moved up to Traverse in Sept of '90 and heard a lot of stories firsthand. It was such a dynamic bomb storm, many could not make it home from work that day. Ended up walking to nearby motels. Both November's and January's storms were bigly bombs. Another winter when the Nov-Jan connection worked out. Be nice to see some "bombs" again. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted October 28, 2021 Report Share Posted October 28, 2021 On 10/27/2021 at 8:48 AM, someweatherdude said: KC had its all time record low in December 1989. Topeka as well... -26. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 28, 2021 Report Share Posted October 28, 2021 2.1 inches at my house and no sign that the rain will stop anytime soon. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 29, 2021 Report Share Posted October 29, 2021 WxBell with an update to the Winter forecast: Snowfall map stayed the same 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 29, 2021 Report Share Posted October 29, 2021 December obviously stands out, these are the analog years they used. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 On 10/28/2021 at 4:05 PM, someweatherdude said: Not sure where else to put this, so I'll put it here. Graphs showing extent of land covered by snow in NA every Fall, Winter and Spring since 1967. Not what I expected to see. I really expected to see Fall, in particular, with a downward trend because it feels like fall and early winter have been warmer and less snowy of late. But please don't turn this into a political discussion! Key words: North American Covers a ton of territory north of the border. As for autumn increasing my gut feeling is we are being lied to (j/k). Back in the 40s-60s the jet slowly worked south into winter. Since then we've seen icreasing volitility and early cold plunges and snows further south. Maybe not where you are but overall its been a trend. Just my 2 cents 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 23 hours ago, Clinton said: December obviously stands out, these are the analog years they used. Yeah, that's a crazy Decemberrrr map even for WxBell 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Wow, a winter that doesn't start in the second week of January? Impossible! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 Don't look at the end of the Euro runs. Looks ugly if you like winter or even fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, tStacsh said: Don't look at the end of the Euro runs. Looks ugly if you like winter or even fall. I have to defer back to the rules of weather's recent history over the Bering Sea and other factors ongoing and have to toss that for the next couple days. Just keep watching....I really think the "cold team" is the safe bet here, and when the cold dumps over the N Pac shut down, N.A. is the target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: I have to defer back to the rules of weather's recent history over the Bering Sea and other factors ongoing and have to toss that for the next couple days. Just keep watching....I really think the "cold team" is the safe bet here, and when the cold dumps over the N Pac shut down, N.A. is the target. Euro Weeklies seem to be in that camp...Thanksgiving Week into early Dec look like Winter locks in for a bit... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, tStacsh said: Don't look at the end of the Euro runs. Looks ugly if you like winter or even fall. and the GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 On 10/29/2021 at 11:08 AM, Clinton said: December obviously stands out, these are the analog years they used. Surprised to see some warm ones in their list with that map. Who knows, perhaps we are being set-up for another clunker?? (ducks) 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2021 Report Share Posted October 30, 2021 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Surprised to see some warm ones in their list with that map. Who knows, perhaps we are being set-up for another clunker?? (ducks) Let's hope not. I have a feeling Winter will get going right after Thanksgiving. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 3, 2021 Report Share Posted November 3, 2021 Long ways out but the GFS Extended has a cold look for the first week of Dec. Cross polar flow, Decemberrrrrr. The Euro weeklies keep the fun going. 6 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 4, 2021 Report Share Posted November 4, 2021 NW flowwwwww 3 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 The GFS extended showing some impressive snowfall amounts over the next 35 days. 3 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 I went ahead and updated the name of this thread to include the upcoming winter of 2021-22. On a side note, I happened to read that ORD's new seasonal snowfall has been upped from 36.3" to 38.4" (+2.1"). It's interesting to see it rise a couple inches. I remember having some banner years in the late 2000's where we had a streak of 4 or 5 seasons hitting the 50"+ mark. The infamous and historic '13-14' season prob helped also and the dreadful decade of the 90's that had many Nino's is no longer in the calculation. Hopefully this new decade can continue the increasing trend! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 From Basrardi today as he keeps hammering home the idea of a cold December. That Map oughta get your attention The GEFS Day 35 stratosphere forecast: It is interesting to note similar stratospheric warmings to this occurred in three of the coldest Decembers of the last 100 years - 1976, 1983, and 1989. I realize this is after this forecast period, but I am sticking it here because I want to make sure it's something that you see rather than an afterthought. It's what is off the beaten path that you won't see if you just stay on the same trail everyone else is on. I think it is important to know not only what the 20 day says but what could happen after, and sometimes you may overlook something if it's not in repetitive form. So expect to see this again in the Monthly and the 90-day. Those stratosphere patterns on December 7: Those Decembers temperature-wise: 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: From Basrardi today as he keeps hammering home the idea of a cold December. That Map oughta get your attention The GEFS Day 35 stratosphere forecast: It is interesting to note similar stratospheric warmings to this occurred in three of the coldest Decembers of the last 100 years - 1976, 1983, and 1989. I realize this is after this forecast period, but I am sticking it here because I want to make sure it's something that you see rather than an afterthought. It's what is off the beaten path that you won't see if you just stay on the same trail everyone else is on. I think it is important to know not only what the 20 day says but what could happen after, and sometimes you may overlook something if it's not in repetitive form. So expect to see this again in the Monthly and the 90-day. Those stratosphere patterns on December 7: Those Decembers temperature-wise: Where's my "brrrr" icon?? 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Good thing Joe always predicts cold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 The CFSv2 seems to be going all in on a cold and wet December. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: The CFSv2 seems to be going all in on a cold and wet December. Build The Glacier…there are going to members on here getting buried this season… 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Certainly is eye candy. That pretty much puts KC in a jackpot. So you guys can be pretty sure that's not how it will really turn out. KC doesn't get jackpots. Hope springs eternal though. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. We've had some big months in the past its just been awhile and October looked promising. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Love all this fantasy range epic cold and snowiness. Only to get more average as time gets closer. Eventually it will be right for a week or two and there will be a lot of celebrating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 hour ago, tStacsh said: Love all this fantasy range epic cold and snowiness. Only to get more average as time gets closer. Eventually it will be right for a week or two and there will be a lot of celebrating. Pretty sure all of the maps showing cold have been valid for the 2nd half of November and December. Both still look to verify. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 5 hours ago, tStacsh said: Love all this fantasy range epic cold and snowiness. Only to get more average as time gets closer. Eventually it will be right for a week or two and there will be a lot of celebrating. 3 hours ago, Clinton said: Pretty sure all of the maps showing cold have been valid for the 2nd half of November and December. Both still look to verify. In a way, he's right. I was around to experience and remember all three extremely cold Dec's that JB/WxBell has been touting in looking at their forecast for the winter. And all (3) autums, up to this point anyway, were much more noticeably memorable for snow and/or cold than this autumn. Again, this year could easily play catch-up, but to date it's lagging and by next week (11-15) the bar is raised even higher wrt snowstorms/cold waves. So, while we wait-n-see if trends verify there is some merit to his soft ranting and skeptic's comments. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 23 minutes ago, jaster220 said: In a way, he's right. I was around to experience and remember all three extremely cold Dec's that JB/WxBell has been touting in looking at their forecast for the winter. And all (3) autums, up to this point anyway, were much more noticeably memorable for snow and/or cold than this autumn. Again, this year could easily play catch-up, but to date it's lagging and by next week (11-15) the bar is raised even higher wrt snowstorms/cold waves. So, while we wait-n-see if trends verify there is some merit to his soft ranting and skeptic's comments. I’m a cynic by nature. No pun intended. I need to see it to believe it. Like Nov 2014 or March 2012. That was amazing to experience. You can love the predictions. Love the long range trends. But until it happens, there are no guarantees. We could easily end up with just a plain average Nov Dec. Which would seem amazing considering the last 5-6 years. our first average inch of snow is coming up. Looks like we will be right near average. Trust me. I want cold and snow. Someone needs to reel the forum In a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, tStacsh said: I’m a cynic by nature. No pun intended. I need to see it to believe it. Like Nov 2014 or March 2012. That was amazing to experience. You can love the predictions. Love the long range trends. But until it happens, there are no guarantees. We could easily end up with just a plain average Nov Dec. Which would seem amazing considering the last 5-6 years. our first average inch of snow is coming up. Looks like we will be right near average. Trust me. I want cold and snow. Someone needs to reel the forum In a bit I know Tom. He's not only a great guy and leader of our forum, but an enthusiast's enthusiast at heart. Also, as forum admin/leader I think he considers the entire region his back yard, lol. Personally I am not one to get much from seeing an event from afar, like say when S/ND gets slammed. I get excited for snow imby, or at least former back yards, lol. Places I can get to if I wish to hop in my car for a few hours. Anyways, it still feels more autumn than winter here with the relaxing of last week's BN regime. Looping '89-90 tells me you'd not be thrilled by a repeat. Talk about NW flow, more like NNW for the LES hits. Take a look at St. Joseph peeps greeting Santa on Christmas morning with 42" OTG! It started with a strong bowling ball storm that passed just south of MI mid-month. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I know Tom. He's not only a great guy and leader of our forum, but an enthusiast's enthusiast at heart. Also, as forum admin/leader I think he considers the entire region his back yard, lol. Personally I am not one to get much from seeing an event from afar, like say when S/ND gets slammed. I get excited for snow imby, or at least former back yards, lol. Places I can get to if I wish to hop in my car for a few hours. Anyways, it still feels more autumn than winter here with the relaxing of last week's BN regime. Looping '89-90 tells me you'd not be thrilled by a repeat. Talk about NW flow, more like NNW for the LES hits. Take a look at St. Joseph peeps greeting Santa on Christmas morning with 42" OTG! It started with a strong bowling ball storm that passed just south of MI mid-month. I’m 10-15 miles from the big LES. But I’ve seen some crazy amounts with a W to WSW flow. I lived in Grand Haven in 2014. We didn’t get any lake effect in November 2014 compared to where I live now. Blew over our head. I want a repeat of that. 20 degrees and 20 inches of snow by thanksgiving. Give me that and I’ll say wow. I love Tom and all his posts. I’m here because he posts a lot of interesting stuff. I also love to joke around and have fun. I hope he’s right. I just see things differently. I don’t trust monthly forecasts. I’ve seen them burn to the ground too many times. You can double with 11 against a 6 in blackjack all day. But it’s not a guaranteed win until all the cards are dealt. my forecast keeps getting warmer in the long range by the way. But I don’t trust that either. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 I'd like to comment on the extended LR pattern for a bit. Ok, sooo, here it comes....my long standing idea of a "pull back" is showing up in the LR signals I tend to lean towards which is by looking at what is happening up in the Strat. Clearly, the NE PAC/W Canada trough is IMO going to show up towards the end of Nov into opening of Dec. This provides us multiple clues into the LR pattern. For one, this will undoubtedly be the return of the "similar" pattern we saw in Oct. Second, we should also see a wave train of systems coming off the PAC. Now, don't loose out hope for some wintry systems bc the blossoming warmer temps near Greenland/NE Canada suggest Blocking. At this time of year, however, this "seeds" colder air into the pattern but how far it bleeds south is TBD. You'll see by Nov 3rd/4th the deep blues showing up hugging NW NAMER....suggests a trough pattern by end of Nov... The pattern I see to close out Nov and open up December will prob feature cutters & N stream systems....how hard they cut will depend on the strength of the SER that should return as well. Using the BSR as guidance, below you can see the expansive HP ridge traversing the Aleutians that pretty much stays put for about a few days along with a system that tracks north into the Bearing Sea (likely an Upper MW system Dec 1st-3rd??). Then, we see a slow moving system track underneath the blossoming ridge over the top (suggesting a storm around Dec 5th-8th) that will prob snap the pattern back to a more colder/wintrier one. The blossoming ridge is also an indication that the Greenland block means business. With all that being said, if you are worried about putting up Christmas decor this year during inclement weather, you'll have a good window after Thanksgiving. I will say, however, Thanksgiving week is still looking active and wintry for many of you across the central Sub. So, there may be snow OTG for parts of the MW/GL's region, but will it melt away??? I think that may happen except for those up north. I'll save the best for last because towards the end of Week 1 in Dec, this is when I believe the real deal fun begins and Winter will have sustained legs. The storm I'm seeing during the beginning of Week 1 in Dec will be a big deal in terms of sustained winter. The 0z EPS 5-day mean below suggests to look out below....#southernstream storm track starting post 8th/9th of Dec. Let's all enjoy the start of the holiday season and tracking winter storms...it'll be a busy busy season! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Those of you who use the LRC will remember a cut-off low back on Oct 6th (as the new LRC started) that tracked up from the GOM towards the lower lakes. That same part of the pattern has been showing up on the long range models around Nov 24th. While this run of the GFS doesn't have everything perfect (to weak with the blocking) it's close enough for me to say our cycle length will be 49-50 days this year. After that system we had a hard cutter and a strong storm that ejected out of the Texas panhandle on Oct 10th, 11th. With that in mind I would like to make my first call for a snow storm for KC, Eastern Iowa, and Wisc on November 29th and 30th. If I'm wrong feel free to hurl insults, eggs, tomatoes lol. Exciting times ahead. Should also mention this cut-off low I'm showing could produce also, it didn't wrap up much moisture for KC the last time but it got itself together real nice by the time it reached the lower lakes. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Those of you who use the LRC will remember a cut-off low back on Oct 6th (as the new LRC started) that tracked up from the GOM towards the lower lakes. That same part of the pattern has been showing up on the long range models around Nov 24th. While this run of the GFS doesn't have everything perfect (to weak with the blocking) it's close enough for me to say our cycle length will be 49-50 days this year. After that system we had a hard cutter and a strong storm that ejected out of the Texas panhandle on Oct 10th, 11th. With that in mind I would like to make my first call for a snow storm for KC, Eastern Iowa, and Wisc on November 29th and 30th. If I'm wrong feel free to hurl insults, eggs, tomatoes lol. Exciting times ahead. Should also mention this cut-off low I'm showing could produce also, it didn't wrap up much moisture for KC the last time but it got itself together real nice by the time it reached the lower lakes. That was a good one amigo! Literally had me laughing off my chair. But in any case, I hope you guys get this snowstorm. Good luck on that one! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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