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Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion


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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Those of you who use the LRC will remember a cut-off low back on Oct 6th (as the new LRC started) that tracked up from the GOM towards the lower lakes.  That same part of the pattern has been showing up on the long range models around Nov 24th.  While this run of the GFS doesn't have everything perfect (to weak with the blocking) it's close enough for me to say our cycle length will be 49-50 days this year.  After that system we had a hard cutter and a strong storm that ejected out of the Texas panhandle on Oct 10th, 11th.  With that in mind I would like to make my first call for a snow storm for KC, Eastern Iowa, and Wisc on November 29th and 30th.  If I'm wrong feel free to hurl insults, eggs, tomatoes lol.  Exciting times ahead.  Should also mention this cut-off low I'm showing could produce also, it didn't wrap up much moisture for KC the last time but it got itself together real nice by the time it reached the lower lakes.

gfs_z500aNorm_us_59.png

let the good times roll on in!

 

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36 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Dean Wycoski will have Lezak on his show on WDAY. November 17 at 8pm CST, I believe.

That's interesting bc I'm seeing some signs the LRC could be beginning the next cycle by then...I'm digging deep into the pattern and there are so many different examples of similar storms/patterns/etc within the 1st cycle.  @Clintonare you seeing many harmonic rhythms?  

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

That's interesting bc I'm seeing some signs the LRC could be beginning the next cycle by then...I'm digging deep into the pattern and there are so many different examples of similar storms/patterns/etc within the 1st cycle.  @Clintonare you seeing many harmonic rhythms?  

Yes I am and there was one back at the beginning of the month, almost like the pattern went back in time 2 weeks.  

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The overnight low here at my house was a mild 47 and at this time it is 50 with cloudy skies. This weekend the set up looks good for lake effect. We shall see but to me it looks like the temperatures are a little too warm for any big time lake event snow. While there is a very good chance that we will see snow with the forecasted temperatures it would seem hard for a lot of  snow accumulation. Anyway if the temperature were colder would have been in a good set up for a lot of lake effect snow.

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On 11/9/2021 at 10:47 PM, tStacsh said:

I’m 10-15 miles from the big LES.  But I’ve seen some crazy amounts with a W to WSW flow.  I lived in Grand Haven in 2014.  We didn’t get any lake effect in November 2014 compared to where I live now.  Blew over our head.  I want a repeat of that.  20 degrees and 20 inches of snow by thanksgiving.  Give me that and I’ll say wow.    
 

I love Tom and all his posts.  I’m here because he posts a lot of interesting stuff.  I also love to joke around and have fun.  I hope he’s right.  I just see things differently.  I don’t trust monthly forecasts.  I’ve seen them burn to the ground too many times.  You can double with 11 against a 6 in blackjack all day.  But it’s not a guaranteed win until all the cards are dealt.  
 

my forecast keeps getting warmer in the long range by the way.  But I don’t trust that either.  

Good thing, because it too looks to be FALSE

I still feel shafted by the Nov of '14 storm. My county was under a warning, but only the far west/NW portion saw that kind of LES totals. Marshall's in the center of the county, and my grass barely got covered. And that's being generous.

My place in Traverse was just 3 miles from the shoreline, so I too have lived the shadowy existence wrt early season events. 11-11-95 bliz up there could've been a 15"+ big dog, but lake shadow caused about half an inch of liquid to be wasted as ZR and sleet before it could finally switch to flakes.

Good luck with this weekend's LES

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I mostly lurk here ... but I am in a great spot for lake effect as long as the winds are within 45 deg. of westerly. Sometimes we will have LES that starts out NW, shifts to W, then shifts SW and I end up right on the axis where it just doesn't stop snowing. Hopefully it gets cold enough this year. It seems like most years the lake effect snows end up in the same general area. Sometimes that means most of the LES is in Allegan/Van Buren/Berrien or Muskegon/Oceana and Ottawa gets next to nothing. November/December LES has been really hit-or-miss the last few years. I am hoping for a huge westerly event while the lake is still really warm.

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1 hour ago, Jarod said:

I mostly lurk here ... but I am in a great spot for lake effect as long as the winds are within 45 deg. of westerly. Sometimes we will have LES that starts out NW, shifts to W, then shifts SW and I end up right on the axis where it just doesn't stop snowing. Hopefully it gets cold enough this year. It seems like most years the lake effect snows end up in the same general area. Sometimes that means most of the LES is in Allegan/Van Buren/Berrien or Muskegon/Oceana and Ottawa gets next to nothing. November/December LES has been really hit-or-miss the last few years. I am hoping for a huge westerly event while the lake is still really warm.

As Stacsh has said, this weekend would be exactly that if only it were about 5-10 degs colder. I'm out of the game for LES nowadays, but hoping this comes around again this winter. Y'all could be buried over there!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Jarod said:

I am in a great spot for lake effect as long as the winds are within 45 deg. of westerly. Sometimes we will have LES that starts out NW, shifts to W, then shifts SW and I end up right on the axis where it just doesn't stop snowing

The wind direction has a lot to determine where in Ottawa County the most snow will fall.  I live 3 miles to the east of the Ottawa/Kent County line and for me the best wind for lake effect snow is with a W or WWS wind. Now far south west Ottawa down around Holland can do real well with a West of NW wind. When I worked in Holland there was one time in January 1988 when where I worked 15" of very fluffy snow fell between 4PM and midnight with get this a east wind. 5 miles in either direction there was just around 2"

Anyway welcome aboard 

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On 11/10/2021 at 6:52 AM, Clinton said:

Those of you who use the LRC will remember a cut-off low back on Oct 6th (as the new LRC started) that tracked up from the GOM towards the lower lakes.  That same part of the pattern has been showing up on the long range models around Nov 24th.  While this run of the GFS doesn't have everything perfect (to weak with the blocking) it's close enough for me to say our cycle length will be 49-50 days this year.  After that system we had a hard cutter and a strong storm that ejected out of the Texas panhandle on Oct 10th, 11th.  With that in mind I would like to make my first call for a snow storm for KC, Eastern Iowa, and Wisc on November 29th and 30th.  If I'm wrong feel free to hurl insults, eggs, tomatoes lol.  Exciting times ahead.  Should also mention this cut-off low I'm showing could produce also, it didn't wrap up much moisture for KC the last time but it got itself together real nice by the time it reached the lower lakes.

gfs_z500aNorm_us_59.png

You say this storm (back on 10-6-21) got it's act together by the time it hit the Lwr Lakes, but I don't remember a sig system around here at that point. Got any maps by chance?

Meanwhile, CFS for December:

 

2021-11-06 CFSv2 Dec temps forecast.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You say this storm (back on 10-6-21) got it's act together by the time it hit the Lwr Lakes, but I don't remember a sig system around here at that point. Got any maps by chance?

Meanwhile, CFS for December:

 

2021-11-06 CFSv2 Dec temps forecast.PNG

That was the cut off low that really hammered the SE with heavy rain. Weather maps from that week found here- https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/pdf/DWM4021.pdf

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

You say this storm (back on 10-6-21) got it's act together by the time it hit the Lwr Lakes, but I don't remember a sig system around here at that point. Got any maps by chance?

Meanwhile, CFS for December:

 

2021-11-06 CFSv2 Dec temps forecast.PNG

In addition to what Grizz shared if you go back and look at the first 3 pages of the Oct thread there is alot about it there and the big storm 5 days later.

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TWC decided to go colder on their "Winter Outlook Update" .....

https://s.w-x.co/promo_WSI_Dec-Feb_1110.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On 11/10/2021 at 5:52 AM, Clinton said:

After that system we had a hard cutter and a strong storm that ejected out of the Texas panhandle on Oct 10th, 11th.  With that in mind I would like to make my first call for a snow storm for KC, Eastern Iowa, and Wisc on November 29th and 30th.

(Alert: LRC discussion ahead)

After going through the Oct/Nov 500mb charts and our observed weather here and assuming a 50 day cycle for now, I agree with you. I also have around Dec 17 penciled in from the Oct 27/28 storm.  So far I think these two systems are the best chances for significant snow here during the winter as they cycle through. I'm guessing we have about 2 weeks before cycle #2 begins so it'll be interesting to see what else (if anything) shows up before then.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

(Alert: LRC discussion ahead)

After going through the Oct/Nov 500mb charts and our observed weather here and assuming a 50 day cycle for now, I agree with you. I also have around Dec 17 penciled in from the Oct 27/28 storm.  So far I think these two systems are the best chances for significant snow here during the winter as they cycle through. I'm guessing we have about 2 weeks before cycle #2 begins so it'll be interesting to see what else (if anything) shows up before then.

I agree and hope another one will develope before cycle 2 starts.

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Gary Lezaks blog today discusses the start of cycle 2 Thanksgiving week which is what I have been thinking.  I am sticking with my prediction for a storm after Thanksgiving for the places I previously listed.

https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-how-about-the-70s-on-tuesday-a-peek-into-thanksgiving-week

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9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Gary Lezaks blog today discusses the start of cycle 2 Thanksgiving week which is what I have been thinking.  I am sticking with my prediction for a storm after Thanksgiving for the places I previously listed.

https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-how-about-the-70s-on-tuesday-a-peek-into-thanksgiving-week

Clinton, over the past week I have been analyzing our wx pattern and I find it strikingly similar as what has transpired in the N ATL.  I'm glad I posted this animation back in the Oct thread bc it shows exactly what Gary mentioned in his Blog.  I saw that -NAO block develop back then and wouldn't ya know it, it is suddenly popping big time next week in all the models.

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/9079-october-2021-observations-and-discussion/&do=findComment&comment=774430

 

Check out that animation above and compare it to this animation below...what is very similar is notice the storm that races from near Bermuda and then up near Greenland while phasing with another piece "Fujiwhara Effect".  It happened back then as it did last week.  

1.gif

 

Then, what we see is a trough that spins for days south of Greenland that ultimately pumps the Greenland Block.  This is when I believe we will be solidly in the 2nd cycle.  I think the trough showing up in the desert SW around the 23rd/24th is the Oct 11th Monster trough that swept through the same region.  This could just be another harmonic pattern or I could be way off but the similarities are fascinating to see showing up in the model world.

2.gif

 

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33 minutes ago, Tom said:

Clinton, over the past week I have been analyzing our wx pattern and I find it strikingly similar as what has transpired in the N ATL.  I'm glad I posted this animation back in the Oct thread bc it shows exactly what Gary mentioned in his Blog.  I saw that -NAO block develop back then and wouldn't ya know it, it is suddenly popping big time next week in all the models.

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/9079-october-2021-observations-and-discussion/&do=findComment&comment=774430

 

Check out that animation above and compare it to this animation below...what is very similar is notice the storm that races from near Bermuda and then up near Greenland while phasing with another piece "Fujiwhara Effect".  It happened back then as it did last week.  

1.gif

 

Then, what we see is a trough that spins for days south of Greenland that ultimately pumps the Greenland Block.  This is when I believe we will be solidly in the 2nd cycle.  I think the trough showing up in the desert SW around the 23rd/24th is the Oct 11th Monster trough that swept through the same region.  This could just be another harmonic pattern or I could be way off but the similarities are fascinating to see showing up in the model world.

2.gif

 

I think that is definitely cycle 2 imo.  Now we just watch and see how it plays out, the models are having a hell of a time in how they want to handle that energy.

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We had a high of 81 or 2 today. Gorgeous day.  Tomorrow’s high will hit 59*.   
Rain on the way Thursday the 25th. We could use it.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'll admit I'am not a full convert , yet. But I fully admit - and I realized this as a kid - that the weather does seem to have a pattern to it. As with anything new- it does seem odd at first. Thanks for sharing!!! 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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WWMT Ch 3 Kalamazoo has put out their winter snowfall guess and you can see it on this link.

https://wwmt.com/news/local/weather-alert-network-holds-winter-weather-special-on-2021-22-snow-predications

In the Video they have some snow fall totals from the last 6 years at their Kalamazoo station office. Kalamazoo is one of the locations that the NWS doesn’t keep official snowfall records.  Now the station claims the average snow fall for Kalamazoo is around 65” The current 30 year average snow fall for Grand Rapids is 77.6” and for Muskegon it is 87.2” anyway if you get a chance look at their video for their winter guess.

 

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31 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

The closer we get to meteorological winter, the less hopeful I am about a quick start to it.  The cold just doesn't seem to be there this year, at least for those of us in the central part of the sub. The pattern seems to be dominated by huge warm ups and relatively mild cold shots rather than the other way around.  Maybe the typical LES locations and way up north will enjoy real winter weather.  But for those of us who need cold and precip to combine at just the right time, I think we may struggling this year to get the first half of that equation going.  I hope I'm wrong.  I'd love to be wrong!

You're not wrong.  It just seems that it's going to be a roller coaster winter.  All we need is one good set up.  But the true cold artic air might have to wait until after the new year.  

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From PP at Accu-WX. Some of the graphics are the same from Sept (later ones are updated)- but the text is mostly new.

 

Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
Winter update

Risks:

1. I am concerned that our December change of lowering temperatures in the East may have been too quick. There is a chance that a milder period in the middle and perhaps later part of the month could overtake any cold at the very start and end of the month.

2. We may need to take temperatures up in southwestern Texas and more so in the Southwest.590x336_09161936_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.35.24-pm.png590x334_09162022_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.34.13-pm.png590x332_11100214_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-8.57.37-pm.png

1. As was expected, the stormy period started early in the West with heavy snow in the Cascades and northern Rockies in early October, then a big storm for Northern California. The storm track will shift throughout the winter season and can lead to precipitation near or just above normal overall.

2. Overall, this winter can be colder than the last seven years for the United States. A weaker polar vortex and negative phases of the EPO and NAO at times will force colder air through North America. A fast-growing snowpack across Canada in late fall and early winter will contribute to more widespread cold events, especially for the Midwest, Plains and interior Northwest.

3. An active northern storm track, compliments of La Nina, will extend from the Northwest to the Northeast this winter with several snow and ice events. Active periods of weather will escalate holiday shipping delays in addition to the already non-weather related delays through early January.

4. Weak-to-moderate La Nina may contribute to a higher frequency of northern storm events, but other signals throughout the winter season will once again cause changes in the storm track and cold surges (ex. polar vortex, high-latitude blocking and upper high pressure northeastern Pacific resulting in an amplified pattern).

5. The Southwest drought will hold. Wildfire season is nearly over for the entire nation with the exception of Southern California and western Arizona. The eastern Four Corners region is running behind schedule to last year's early winter surge. We expect a few storms again in this region, mainly across Colorado and Utah. New Mexico and Arizona can be drier than last winter.

6. Overall, the ski areas in the West and East will average good to excellent. The changing storm tracks should widen the coverage of snowpack this winter compared to other years.

7. The Southeast can turn drier and milder in February, perhaps an early growing start; watch for early buds on dormant trees and plants.

8. Typically, with La Nina, the Pacific Northwest is wet and snowy. This winter’s results will average near to above normal. Upper high pressure that forms over the northeastern Pacific can alter storm tracks throughout the winter, increasing and decreasing intensity of storms for any given area.

9. Surface water temperatures over all five Great Lakes are running above normal. There can be surges of colder air in November and December leading to brief periods of lake-effect snow. Later in December, January and perhaps extending into February, lake-effect snow can be heavier and more widespread.

Teleconnections:

ENSO – We are expecting a borderline weak-to-moderate La Nina, peaking in late December or early January. This can lead to stronger storms moving across the Northwest to the Midwest; it will be milder and drier across the southern tier of the nation.

QBO/SOLAR – Solar output will be close to minimum once again this winter. A negative QBO in the lower stratosphere and solar minimum can favor sudden stratospheric warming events early and late, and a weaker stratospheric polar vortex overall. In addition, as the easterly winds drift down into the troposphere, we can see an increase in high-latitude blocking, but the easterlies have been slow lowering through the stratosphere.

POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTION – An early weakening of the polar vortex will lead to an amplified pattern later this week. The polar vortex will have trouble maintaining strength over the pole through December, which means more cold surges for midlatitudes. Some analogs are showing a major disruption can occur late January or February, but maybe more likely later in February or March.

PDO – The PDO has strengthened in the past month and will remain strong and a significant factor this winter season. The warmest SST anomalies will be south of the Gulf of Alaska and north of Hawaii with colder water from the northeastern Pacific, along the West coast and southeast of Hawaii. A mean upper high pressure will be farther away from the West Coast most of the winter. The split in the overall jet stream can be influenced and not only bring heavier precipitation from the Northwest to western Canada, but also allow periods of heavier rain and snow to shift south into central and Northern California with a chance at Southern California as well.

MARINE HEAT WAVE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST: Sea-surface water temperature anomalies are running 3-6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from Delaware to Maine. This can influence temperatures in December, holding back consistent cold weather and also precipitation type, more rain or mixed precipitation southern areas. This area can also influence the intensity of bigger storms, higher precipitation rates and potential nor'easter (already one so far).

EPO and NAO: These two teleconnections can be hard to predict, but the modeling shows occasional negative phases of both. When in line with polar disruptions it can lead to amplified patterns and significant cold swings for areas of the country.

Here is the month-to-month European forecast and interpretation of teleconnections.

September update:590x333_11070351_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.46.40-pm.png590x333_11070352_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.47.42-pm.png590x331_09161945_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.45.01-pm.png590x334_10210131_snowoutlook.png

1. Snowfall from the California Sierra to the northwestern Cascades will be heavy at times and spread out throughout the winter season. We are expecting a shifty storm track which leaves lulls in heavier precipitation periods.

2. We continue to favor a weak-to-near moderate La Nina. La Nina will most likely peak in the early part of the winter (around late December) on the border of a stronger weak La Nina, and a weaker moderate La Nina. For this reason we are covering for above-normal snowfall in the Midwest (due to the weaker La Nina side) and near- to above-normal snowfall in the Northwest (due to the moderate La Nina side). An even stronger La Nina would mean much less snow for the Midwest and much more in the Northwest.

3. For the Northeast, there can be a few big storms (two to four nor’easters) creating above-normal snowfall for the interior Northeast. The winter leans toward a few bigger storms rather than higher frequency smaller storms. The storms early can be mainly rain for the big East Coast cities (through November and early December). Chances are greater for snow for this area later in December and January.

4. Ice and snow mixed can fall on a few occasions from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania. This will hold back snowfall amounts, keeping this area near normal for the season. This includes cities like Springfield, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

5. The Great Lakes surface water is running well above normal, especially after the October warm pattern. If this continues through early winter, lake-effect snow is expected to be near normal or just above. There should be available cold combined with high-latitude blocking this winter to produce heavy periods of lake-effect snow spread out through the winter season. Here is a look at the graphs showing each lake. The red is current readings and the blue is the average.590x339_11061536_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.34.51-am.png590x335_09170033_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-8.33.20-pm.png

1. The slopes in central/northeastern Pennsylvania will have some snow in November. There will be a tough hold into December, but more snow is expected late December through February for good skiing.

2. Snow, some icy periods are possible for West Virginia and far southern Pennsylvania resorts. Conditions can be good to poor at times, but mainly good.

3. The interior Northeast already having some snow here in November. Conditions should be excellent mid- and late season, either by big snow events or enough cold for snowmaking.

4. We are expecting good-to-excellent conditions for most of the West through April. Even Northern California should do well with occasional southern slides in the storm track leading to heavy snow events.590x331_11060052_november-december-2021-winter-transition.jpg590x331_09250354_screen-shot-2021-09-24-at-11.54.07-pm.png

1. With fewer cold snaps, there will be less energy demand in the East compared to the middle of the nation, especially mid-Atlantic on south. A mean storm track will head toward the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. There is a low chance for an early freeze this month in central Florida.

2. There is a chance for flooding and strong or drenching thunderstorms across the Tennessee/Ohio valleys and central Appalachians with a couple of cold fronts.

3. Middle of the nation will have an active December with an early start to the snowpack for the Foothills, Dakotas and Upper Midwest; a couple of very cold air masses will run down the Plains, and it will be much colder than 2020 (This may be a result of an SSW event).

4. Wildfires will persist in parts of central and Southern California; there will be a smoky sky and bad air quality at times. Temperatures will be very high away from smoke-filled skies.

5. Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected for the Northwest; this is more typical of La Nina. Northern California and Oregon are played dry for now, but there is a chance that it can be wetter.

Overview - If a positive PNA is the dominant signal, then the storm track can be farther east. Warm water temperatures along the East coast could set up a storm track over the Appalachians or interior Northeast rather than the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Warm SSTs can keep up temperatures, especially at night. A positive PNA would support dry conditions in Northern California and Oregon.590x331_09281629_screen-shot-2021-09-28-at-12.28.28-pm.png

1. There will be a very active northern storm track; snow frequency can be high across the northern Rockies to the Northeast. Above-normal snowfall expected for much of this region, especially in January; lake-effect snow intense at times.

2. It will be much colder this January compared to January 2021 for the northern Plains; some areas will be 10-15 degrees colder.

3. A storm track can bring widespread areas of snow to the northern and eastern Rockies, the Ohio Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Ice chances will increase from the mid-Mississippi Valley, across the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley and into parts of the mid-Atlantic.

4. The Southwest should continue to be drier than normal; storms will be less intense in the Northwest with some rain and snow for Northern California and Oregon. Ski areas should do well in the West and Northeast.

5. Coverage of cold in January will heavily depend on snowpack. We are conservative on numbers for now. We can see departures in January 4-8 degrees below normal with a colder source region this year.

6. A storm or two can reach the interior Southwest and southern Plains with the chance for snow or ice leading to disruptive travel. This area may not be as severe as last year's run of storms and cold.

Overview: Forecast models are showing negative EPO with a weak negative NAO. This could lead to a slight west shift in overall pattern and more cold from the Rockies to the Plains, but it will be pulled east at times by the negative NAO. This is the same for the storm track. Still, there is a low chance for a freeze in central Florida, but chances will increase later January into early February.590x334_11100215_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-9.13.49-pm.png

1. The coldest region can be the Dakotas and Upper Midwest in February. A couple of periods of Arctic air will occur south. Temperatures can be even lower than our current forecast.

2. Upper high pressure can back west at times across the Southeast, leading to occasional warming and drier conditions.

3. Temperatures can be 8-12 degrees milder from Kansas to Texas this February compared to February 2021.

4. Drought will remain strong in the Southwest, mainly dry conditions and well above-normal temperature departures.

5. Precipitation will average near normal for the Northwest, some rain and snow, but intensity will be up and down.

6. The mid-Atlantic and New England will be back and forth on temperatures. It could wind up milder in the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, but it comes down to snowpack (more snowpack in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, then colder).

7. The storm track will still be active across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast, with more rain, snow and ice topping over a very active and stormy winter.

Overview: The NAO may swing positive with a faster steering flow across eastern Canada. Any cold surges in the Plains and central Canada move quicker and farther northeast in the East. If snowpack is deep in the Northeast and Ohio Valley, then it can be colder. However, this setup allows the Southeast's upper high pressure to build at times, leading to milder and drier conditions in the Southeast. This also forces the storm track to the north, cutting off Gulf moisture to the East.


[mt]
Posted on Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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14 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

From PP at Accu-WX. Some of the graphics are the same from Sept (later ones are updated)- but the text is mostly new.

 

Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
Winter update

Risks:

1. I am concerned that our December change of lowering temperatures in the East may have been too quick. There is a chance that a milder period in the middle and perhaps later part of the month could overtake any cold at the very start and end of the month.

2. We may need to take temperatures up in southwestern Texas and more so in the Southwest.590x336_09161936_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.35.24-pm.png590x334_09162022_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.34.13-pm.png590x332_11100214_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-8.57.37-pm.png

1. As was expected, the stormy period started early in the West with heavy snow in the Cascades and northern Rockies in early October, then a big storm for Northern California. The storm track will shift throughout the winter season and can lead to precipitation near or just above normal overall.

2. Overall, this winter can be colder than the last seven years for the United States. A weaker polar vortex and negative phases of the EPO and NAO at times will force colder air through North America. A fast-growing snowpack across Canada in late fall and early winter will contribute to more widespread cold events, especially for the Midwest, Plains and interior Northwest.

3. An active northern storm track, compliments of La Nina, will extend from the Northwest to the Northeast this winter with several snow and ice events. Active periods of weather will escalate holiday shipping delays in addition to the already non-weather related delays through early January.

4. Weak-to-moderate La Nina may contribute to a higher frequency of northern storm events, but other signals throughout the winter season will once again cause changes in the storm track and cold surges (ex. polar vortex, high-latitude blocking and upper high pressure northeastern Pacific resulting in an amplified pattern).

5. The Southwest drought will hold. Wildfire season is nearly over for the entire nation with the exception of Southern California and western Arizona. The eastern Four Corners region is running behind schedule to last year's early winter surge. We expect a few storms again in this region, mainly across Colorado and Utah. New Mexico and Arizona can be drier than last winter.

6. Overall, the ski areas in the West and East will average good to excellent. The changing storm tracks should widen the coverage of snowpack this winter compared to other years.

7. The Southeast can turn drier and milder in February, perhaps an early growing start; watch for early buds on dormant trees and plants.

8. Typically, with La Nina, the Pacific Northwest is wet and snowy. This winter’s results will average near to above normal. Upper high pressure that forms over the northeastern Pacific can alter storm tracks throughout the winter, increasing and decreasing intensity of storms for any given area.

9. Surface water temperatures over all five Great Lakes are running above normal. There can be surges of colder air in November and December leading to brief periods of lake-effect snow. Later in December, January and perhaps extending into February, lake-effect snow can be heavier and more widespread.

Teleconnections:

ENSO – We are expecting a borderline weak-to-moderate La Nina, peaking in late December or early January. This can lead to stronger storms moving across the Northwest to the Midwest; it will be milder and drier across the southern tier of the nation.

QBO/SOLAR – Solar output will be close to minimum once again this winter. A negative QBO in the lower stratosphere and solar minimum can favor sudden stratospheric warming events early and late, and a weaker stratospheric polar vortex overall. In addition, as the easterly winds drift down into the troposphere, we can see an increase in high-latitude blocking, but the easterlies have been slow lowering through the stratosphere.

POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTION – An early weakening of the polar vortex will lead to an amplified pattern later this week. The polar vortex will have trouble maintaining strength over the pole through December, which means more cold surges for midlatitudes. Some analogs are showing a major disruption can occur late January or February, but maybe more likely later in February or March.

PDO – The PDO has strengthened in the past month and will remain strong and a significant factor this winter season. The warmest SST anomalies will be south of the Gulf of Alaska and north of Hawaii with colder water from the northeastern Pacific, along the West coast and southeast of Hawaii. A mean upper high pressure will be farther away from the West Coast most of the winter. The split in the overall jet stream can be influenced and not only bring heavier precipitation from the Northwest to western Canada, but also allow periods of heavier rain and snow to shift south into central and Northern California with a chance at Southern California as well.

MARINE HEAT WAVE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST: Sea-surface water temperature anomalies are running 3-6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from Delaware to Maine. This can influence temperatures in December, holding back consistent cold weather and also precipitation type, more rain or mixed precipitation southern areas. This area can also influence the intensity of bigger storms, higher precipitation rates and potential nor'easter (already one so far).

EPO and NAO: These two teleconnections can be hard to predict, but the modeling shows occasional negative phases of both. When in line with polar disruptions it can lead to amplified patterns and significant cold swings for areas of the country.

Here is the month-to-month European forecast and interpretation of teleconnections.

September update:590x333_11070351_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.46.40-pm.png590x333_11070352_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.47.42-pm.png590x331_09161945_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.45.01-pm.png590x334_10210131_snowoutlook.png

1. Snowfall from the California Sierra to the northwestern Cascades will be heavy at times and spread out throughout the winter season. We are expecting a shifty storm track which leaves lulls in heavier precipitation periods.

2. We continue to favor a weak-to-near moderate La Nina. La Nina will most likely peak in the early part of the winter (around late December) on the border of a stronger weak La Nina, and a weaker moderate La Nina. For this reason we are covering for above-normal snowfall in the Midwest (due to the weaker La Nina side) and near- to above-normal snowfall in the Northwest (due to the moderate La Nina side). An even stronger La Nina would mean much less snow for the Midwest and much more in the Northwest.

3. For the Northeast, there can be a few big storms (two to four nor’easters) creating above-normal snowfall for the interior Northeast. The winter leans toward a few bigger storms rather than higher frequency smaller storms. The storms early can be mainly rain for the big East Coast cities (through November and early December). Chances are greater for snow for this area later in December and January.

4. Ice and snow mixed can fall on a few occasions from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania. This will hold back snowfall amounts, keeping this area near normal for the season. This includes cities like Springfield, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

5. The Great Lakes surface water is running well above normal, especially after the October warm pattern. If this continues through early winter, lake-effect snow is expected to be near normal or just above. There should be available cold combined with high-latitude blocking this winter to produce heavy periods of lake-effect snow spread out through the winter season. Here is a look at the graphs showing each lake. The red is current readings and the blue is the average.590x339_11061536_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.34.51-am.png590x335_09170033_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-8.33.20-pm.png

1. The slopes in central/northeastern Pennsylvania will have some snow in November. There will be a tough hold into December, but more snow is expected late December through February for good skiing.

2. Snow, some icy periods are possible for West Virginia and far southern Pennsylvania resorts. Conditions can be good to poor at times, but mainly good.

3. The interior Northeast already having some snow here in November. Conditions should be excellent mid- and late season, either by big snow events or enough cold for snowmaking.

4. We are expecting good-to-excellent conditions for most of the West through April. Even Northern California should do well with occasional southern slides in the storm track leading to heavy snow events.590x331_11060052_november-december-2021-winter-transition.jpg590x331_09250354_screen-shot-2021-09-24-at-11.54.07-pm.png

1. With fewer cold snaps, there will be less energy demand in the East compared to the middle of the nation, especially mid-Atlantic on south. A mean storm track will head toward the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. There is a low chance for an early freeze this month in central Florida.

2. There is a chance for flooding and strong or drenching thunderstorms across the Tennessee/Ohio valleys and central Appalachians with a couple of cold fronts.

3. Middle of the nation will have an active December with an early start to the snowpack for the Foothills, Dakotas and Upper Midwest; a couple of very cold air masses will run down the Plains, and it will be much colder than 2020 (This may be a result of an SSW event).

4. Wildfires will persist in parts of central and Southern California; there will be a smoky sky and bad air quality at times. Temperatures will be very high away from smoke-filled skies.

5. Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected for the Northwest; this is more typical of La Nina. Northern California and Oregon are played dry for now, but there is a chance that it can be wetter.

Overview - If a positive PNA is the dominant signal, then the storm track can be farther east. Warm water temperatures along the East coast could set up a storm track over the Appalachians or interior Northeast rather than the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Warm SSTs can keep up temperatures, especially at night. A positive PNA would support dry conditions in Northern California and Oregon.590x331_09281629_screen-shot-2021-09-28-at-12.28.28-pm.png

1. There will be a very active northern storm track; snow frequency can be high across the northern Rockies to the Northeast. Above-normal snowfall expected for much of this region, especially in January; lake-effect snow intense at times.

2. It will be much colder this January compared to January 2021 for the northern Plains; some areas will be 10-15 degrees colder.

3. A storm track can bring widespread areas of snow to the northern and eastern Rockies, the Ohio Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Ice chances will increase from the mid-Mississippi Valley, across the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley and into parts of the mid-Atlantic.

4. The Southwest should continue to be drier than normal; storms will be less intense in the Northwest with some rain and snow for Northern California and Oregon. Ski areas should do well in the West and Northeast.

5. Coverage of cold in January will heavily depend on snowpack. We are conservative on numbers for now. We can see departures in January 4-8 degrees below normal with a colder source region this year.

6. A storm or two can reach the interior Southwest and southern Plains with the chance for snow or ice leading to disruptive travel. This area may not be as severe as last year's run of storms and cold.

Overview: Forecast models are showing negative EPO with a weak negative NAO. This could lead to a slight west shift in overall pattern and more cold from the Rockies to the Plains, but it will be pulled east at times by the negative NAO. This is the same for the storm track. Still, there is a low chance for a freeze in central Florida, but chances will increase later January into early February.590x334_11100215_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-9.13.49-pm.png

1. The coldest region can be the Dakotas and Upper Midwest in February. A couple of periods of Arctic air will occur south. Temperatures can be even lower than our current forecast.

2. Upper high pressure can back west at times across the Southeast, leading to occasional warming and drier conditions.

3. Temperatures can be 8-12 degrees milder from Kansas to Texas this February compared to February 2021.

4. Drought will remain strong in the Southwest, mainly dry conditions and well above-normal temperature departures.

5. Precipitation will average near normal for the Northwest, some rain and snow, but intensity will be up and down.

6. The mid-Atlantic and New England will be back and forth on temperatures. It could wind up milder in the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, but it comes down to snowpack (more snowpack in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, then colder).

7. The storm track will still be active across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast, with more rain, snow and ice topping over a very active and stormy winter.

Overview: The NAO may swing positive with a faster steering flow across eastern Canada. Any cold surges in the Plains and central Canada move quicker and farther northeast in the East. If snowpack is deep in the Northeast and Ohio Valley, then it can be colder. However, this setup allows the Southeast's upper high pressure to build at times, leading to milder and drier conditions in the Southeast. This also forces the storm track to the north, cutting off Gulf moisture to the East.


[mt]
Posted on Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
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That's a lot of stuff to read there.

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On 11/20/2021 at 8:41 AM, Grizzcoat said:

From PP at Accu-WX. Some of the graphics are the same from Sept (later ones are updated)- but the text is mostly new.

 

Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
Winter update

Risks:

1. I am concerned that our December change of lowering temperatures in the East may have been too quick. There is a chance that a milder period in the middle and perhaps later part of the month could overtake any cold at the very start and end of the month.

2. We may need to take temperatures up in southwestern Texas and more so in the Southwest.590x336_09161936_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.35.24-pm.png590x334_09162022_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.34.13-pm.png590x332_11100214_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-8.57.37-pm.png

1. As was expected, the stormy period started early in the West with heavy snow in the Cascades and northern Rockies in early October, then a big storm for Northern California. The storm track will shift throughout the winter season and can lead to precipitation near or just above normal overall.

2. Overall, this winter can be colder than the last seven years for the United States. A weaker polar vortex and negative phases of the EPO and NAO at times will force colder air through North America. A fast-growing snowpack across Canada in late fall and early winter will contribute to more widespread cold events, especially for the Midwest, Plains and interior Northwest.

3. An active northern storm track, compliments of La Nina, will extend from the Northwest to the Northeast this winter with several snow and ice events. Active periods of weather will escalate holiday shipping delays in addition to the already non-weather related delays through early January.

4. Weak-to-moderate La Nina may contribute to a higher frequency of northern storm events, but other signals throughout the winter season will once again cause changes in the storm track and cold surges (ex. polar vortex, high-latitude blocking and upper high pressure northeastern Pacific resulting in an amplified pattern).

5. The Southwest drought will hold. Wildfire season is nearly over for the entire nation with the exception of Southern California and western Arizona. The eastern Four Corners region is running behind schedule to last year's early winter surge. We expect a few storms again in this region, mainly across Colorado and Utah. New Mexico and Arizona can be drier than last winter.

6. Overall, the ski areas in the West and East will average good to excellent. The changing storm tracks should widen the coverage of snowpack this winter compared to other years.

7. The Southeast can turn drier and milder in February, perhaps an early growing start; watch for early buds on dormant trees and plants.

8. Typically, with La Nina, the Pacific Northwest is wet and snowy. This winter’s results will average near to above normal. Upper high pressure that forms over the northeastern Pacific can alter storm tracks throughout the winter, increasing and decreasing intensity of storms for any given area.

9. Surface water temperatures over all five Great Lakes are running above normal. There can be surges of colder air in November and December leading to brief periods of lake-effect snow. Later in December, January and perhaps extending into February, lake-effect snow can be heavier and more widespread.

Teleconnections:

ENSO – We are expecting a borderline weak-to-moderate La Nina, peaking in late December or early January. This can lead to stronger storms moving across the Northwest to the Midwest; it will be milder and drier across the southern tier of the nation.

QBO/SOLAR – Solar output will be close to minimum once again this winter. A negative QBO in the lower stratosphere and solar minimum can favor sudden stratospheric warming events early and late, and a weaker stratospheric polar vortex overall. In addition, as the easterly winds drift down into the troposphere, we can see an increase in high-latitude blocking, but the easterlies have been slow lowering through the stratosphere.

POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTION – An early weakening of the polar vortex will lead to an amplified pattern later this week. The polar vortex will have trouble maintaining strength over the pole through December, which means more cold surges for midlatitudes. Some analogs are showing a major disruption can occur late January or February, but maybe more likely later in February or March.

PDO – The PDO has strengthened in the past month and will remain strong and a significant factor this winter season. The warmest SST anomalies will be south of the Gulf of Alaska and north of Hawaii with colder water from the northeastern Pacific, along the West coast and southeast of Hawaii. A mean upper high pressure will be farther away from the West Coast most of the winter. The split in the overall jet stream can be influenced and not only bring heavier precipitation from the Northwest to western Canada, but also allow periods of heavier rain and snow to shift south into central and Northern California with a chance at Southern California as well.

MARINE HEAT WAVE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST: Sea-surface water temperature anomalies are running 3-6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from Delaware to Maine. This can influence temperatures in December, holding back consistent cold weather and also precipitation type, more rain or mixed precipitation southern areas. This area can also influence the intensity of bigger storms, higher precipitation rates and potential nor'easter (already one so far).

EPO and NAO: These two teleconnections can be hard to predict, but the modeling shows occasional negative phases of both. When in line with polar disruptions it can lead to amplified patterns and significant cold swings for areas of the country.

Here is the month-to-month European forecast and interpretation of teleconnections.

September update:590x333_11070351_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.46.40-pm.png590x333_11070352_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.47.42-pm.png590x331_09161945_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.45.01-pm.png590x334_10210131_snowoutlook.png

1. Snowfall from the California Sierra to the northwestern Cascades will be heavy at times and spread out throughout the winter season. We are expecting a shifty storm track which leaves lulls in heavier precipitation periods.

2. We continue to favor a weak-to-near moderate La Nina. La Nina will most likely peak in the early part of the winter (around late December) on the border of a stronger weak La Nina, and a weaker moderate La Nina. For this reason we are covering for above-normal snowfall in the Midwest (due to the weaker La Nina side) and near- to above-normal snowfall in the Northwest (due to the moderate La Nina side). An even stronger La Nina would mean much less snow for the Midwest and much more in the Northwest.

3. For the Northeast, there can be a few big storms (two to four nor’easters) creating above-normal snowfall for the interior Northeast. The winter leans toward a few bigger storms rather than higher frequency smaller storms. The storms early can be mainly rain for the big East Coast cities (through November and early December). Chances are greater for snow for this area later in December and January.

4. Ice and snow mixed can fall on a few occasions from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania. This will hold back snowfall amounts, keeping this area near normal for the season. This includes cities like Springfield, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

5. The Great Lakes surface water is running well above normal, especially after the October warm pattern. If this continues through early winter, lake-effect snow is expected to be near normal or just above. There should be available cold combined with high-latitude blocking this winter to produce heavy periods of lake-effect snow spread out through the winter season. Here is a look at the graphs showing each lake. The red is current readings and the blue is the average.590x339_11061536_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.34.51-am.png590x335_09170033_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-8.33.20-pm.png

1. The slopes in central/northeastern Pennsylvania will have some snow in November. There will be a tough hold into December, but more snow is expected late December through February for good skiing.

2. Snow, some icy periods are possible for West Virginia and far southern Pennsylvania resorts. Conditions can be good to poor at times, but mainly good.

3. The interior Northeast already having some snow here in November. Conditions should be excellent mid- and late season, either by big snow events or enough cold for snowmaking.

4. We are expecting good-to-excellent conditions for most of the West through April. Even Northern California should do well with occasional southern slides in the storm track leading to heavy snow events.590x331_11060052_november-december-2021-winter-transition.jpg590x331_09250354_screen-shot-2021-09-24-at-11.54.07-pm.png

1. With fewer cold snaps, there will be less energy demand in the East compared to the middle of the nation, especially mid-Atlantic on south. A mean storm track will head toward the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. There is a low chance for an early freeze this month in central Florida.

2. There is a chance for flooding and strong or drenching thunderstorms across the Tennessee/Ohio valleys and central Appalachians with a couple of cold fronts.

3. Middle of the nation will have an active December with an early start to the snowpack for the Foothills, Dakotas and Upper Midwest; a couple of very cold air masses will run down the Plains, and it will be much colder than 2020 (This may be a result of an SSW event).

4. Wildfires will persist in parts of central and Southern California; there will be a smoky sky and bad air quality at times. Temperatures will be very high away from smoke-filled skies.

5. Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected for the Northwest; this is more typical of La Nina. Northern California and Oregon are played dry for now, but there is a chance that it can be wetter.

Overview - If a positive PNA is the dominant signal, then the storm track can be farther east. Warm water temperatures along the East coast could set up a storm track over the Appalachians or interior Northeast rather than the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Warm SSTs can keep up temperatures, especially at night. A positive PNA would support dry conditions in Northern California and Oregon.590x331_09281629_screen-shot-2021-09-28-at-12.28.28-pm.png

1. There will be a very active northern storm track; snow frequency can be high across the northern Rockies to the Northeast. Above-normal snowfall expected for much of this region, especially in January; lake-effect snow intense at times.

2. It will be much colder this January compared to January 2021 for the northern Plains; some areas will be 10-15 degrees colder.

3. A storm track can bring widespread areas of snow to the northern and eastern Rockies, the Ohio Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Ice chances will increase from the mid-Mississippi Valley, across the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley and into parts of the mid-Atlantic.

4. The Southwest should continue to be drier than normal; storms will be less intense in the Northwest with some rain and snow for Northern California and Oregon. Ski areas should do well in the West and Northeast.

5. Coverage of cold in January will heavily depend on snowpack. We are conservative on numbers for now. We can see departures in January 4-8 degrees below normal with a colder source region this year.

6. A storm or two can reach the interior Southwest and southern Plains with the chance for snow or ice leading to disruptive travel. This area may not be as severe as last year's run of storms and cold.

Overview: Forecast models are showing negative EPO with a weak negative NAO. This could lead to a slight west shift in overall pattern and more cold from the Rockies to the Plains, but it will be pulled east at times by the negative NAO. This is the same for the storm track. Still, there is a low chance for a freeze in central Florida, but chances will increase later January into early February.590x334_11100215_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-9.13.49-pm.png

1. The coldest region can be the Dakotas and Upper Midwest in February. A couple of periods of Arctic air will occur south. Temperatures can be even lower than our current forecast.

2. Upper high pressure can back west at times across the Southeast, leading to occasional warming and drier conditions.

3. Temperatures can be 8-12 degrees milder from Kansas to Texas this February compared to February 2021.

4. Drought will remain strong in the Southwest, mainly dry conditions and well above-normal temperature departures.

5. Precipitation will average near normal for the Northwest, some rain and snow, but intensity will be up and down.

6. The mid-Atlantic and New England will be back and forth on temperatures. It could wind up milder in the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, but it comes down to snowpack (more snowpack in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, then colder).

7. The storm track will still be active across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast, with more rain, snow and ice topping over a very active and stormy winter.

Overview: The NAO may swing positive with a faster steering flow across eastern Canada. Any cold surges in the Plains and central Canada move quicker and farther northeast in the East. If snowpack is deep in the Northeast and Ohio Valley, then it can be colder. However, this setup allows the Southeast's upper high pressure to build at times, leading to milder and drier conditions in the Southeast. This also forces the storm track to the north, cutting off Gulf moisture to the East.


[mt]
Posted on Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
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I wasn't a big fan of Pastelock when he took JB's old role there at Accu, but this write-up tells me he has grown into the LR role and developed his skill set. This is actually a pretty good f'cast from where we sit at the moment. I guess what I'm saying is I will give PP more credence going forward than I have til now. Appreciate the share Grizz.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This is from Lezaks blog this morning, and yes I'm very excited.  Add in the MJO looks to be in phase 7 and 8 as we move through December.  #58daycycle

While it may have been cold, 30° at the time the lights flipped on, there was no wind last night. This calm weather pattern will be changing soon. Look closely at this 234 hour forecast map showing the flow aloft, and at the surface valid at 6 PM, an hour and 25 minutes before kickoff next Sunday, December 5th:


American Model (GFS) Valid Near Kickoff For The Chiefs Game

This shows the development of a major storm over the western United States. This is how the LRC began in October, and we have been patiently waiting for it to recycle. Well, it appears it is about to do just that. This would be a major change in the pattern we have been experiencing. We are still waiting for our first inch of snow, but Kansas City is not alone. Denver, CO has set their record for their latest measurable snow ever recorded. In fact, Denver has not even had 0.1" or any measurable snow yet this season, so their record has been smashed. This will likely change in the next two weeks as the LRC recycles, and it may produce Kansas City's first inch of snow too before the middle of December.

We have finished recording our winter weather special. This will air on Thursday, December 2nd. Just know, I am more bullish on snow despited a slow start. Set your DVR for 6:30 PM Thursday.

For now, the calm weather 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

This is from Lezaks blog this morning, and yes I'm very excited.  Add in the MJO looks to be in phase 7 and 8 as we move through December.  #58daycycle

While it may have been cold, 30° at the time the lights flipped on, there was no wind last night. This calm weather pattern will be changing soon. Look closely at this 234 hour forecast map showing the flow aloft, and at the surface valid at 6 PM, an hour and 25 minutes before kickoff next Sunday, December 5th:


American Model (GFS) Valid Near Kickoff For The Chiefs Game

This shows the development of a major storm over the western United States. This is how the LRC began in October, and we have been patiently waiting for it to recycle. Well, it appears it is about to do just that. This would be a major change in the pattern we have been experiencing. We are still waiting for our first inch of snow, but Kansas City is not alone. Denver, CO has set their record for their latest measurable snow ever recorded. In fact, Denver has not even had 0.1" or any measurable snow yet this season, so their record has been smashed. This will likely change in the next two weeks as the LRC recycles, and it may produce Kansas City's first inch of snow too before the middle of December.

We have finished recording our winter weather special. This will air on Thursday, December 2nd. Just know, I am more bullish on snow despited a slow start. Set your DVR for 6:30 PM Thursday.

For now, the calm weather 

This is a great confirmation to the post I just made in the NOV thread.  I'm glad to hear that Gary is in the cold camp to open up the 2nd week of DEC and one that should have legs.  It def fits the LRC pattern in OCT with a troughy pattern in the west/central CONUS...let's see if the models continue trending in the right direction for us winter wx enthusiasts.

 

Euro Weekly MJO...

image.png

image.png

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4 minutes ago, Tom said:

This is a great confirmation to the post I just made in the NOV thread.  I'm glad to hear that Gary is in the cold camp to open up the 2nd week of DEC and one that should have legs.  It def fits the LRC pattern in OCT with a troughy pattern in the west/central CONUS...let's see if the models continue trending in the right direction for us winter wx enthusiasts.

 

Euro Weekly MJO...

image.png

image.png

If the pattern is indeed around 58 days that would put the biggest storm in the pattern (the storm from Oct 27-30th) due in around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

If the pattern is indeed around 58 days that would put the biggest storm in the pattern (the storm from Oct 27-30th) due in around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

We really could have a fantastic holiday season tracking winter storms.  The LR GEFS and CFSv2 weeklies are starting to trend in our favor come mid DEC into early JAN.  Hopefully we can start building the #glacier.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

We really could have a fantastic holiday season tracking winter storms.  The LR GEFS and CFSv2 weeklies are starting to trend in our favor come mid DEC into early JAN.  Hopefully we can start building the #glacier.

JB's summary for this week talks about the strat warming event, MJO heading to phase 7, and the related global precip analog that aligns very well with Dec of '95. I will tell you what though, I saw an NWS graphic that basically had a list of top-10 latest measurable snows for Chicago. All (9) that were later than Dec 5th were garbage winters. ORD needs to get on the board, and soon. Just saying, it's fine to skip the useless Halloween snows, the early November dustings, even the later November lake shadow noreasters, but going too deep without any snowfall is really bad ju-ju

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DTX put out their winter outlook. Very much in line with Pastelock's, though not broken down monthly with graphics as he did. Wet and active for the GL's, but warm overall. Does allow for AN snowfall here Jan & Feb, closer to norm for Dec. Talks about the general trend of warmer winters regardless of ENSO state.

http://www.weather.gov/media/dtx/climate/Seasonal Outlooks/DTX_Winter2021-2022_Outlook.pdf

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Hah.  The morning guy is the outlier with the lower prediction.  Kind of can't blame him, though, with the way things are starting off.  BTW, Lindsey Anderson -- the usual morning weathercaster -- is stunning (currently away on maternity leave).  Gotta give Gary props for nailing the snow forecast last year. KSHB Meteorologist Snowfall Predictions

Takes a lot of guts to forecast above average snowfall with near to above average temps.  That doesn't happen very often around here.

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